Worth repeating:
Significant changes in Trump’s support & demographic margins in PPD yesterday:
a) Trump support changes over 2 past polling days:
Demographic—————–Oct. 12———-Oct. 14———Diff———
Males—————————–46—————–50————-+4
Females————————-30——————37————+7
GOP——————————78——————82———–+4
Whites—————————-50—————–52————+2
A/A———————————8——————13————+5
30-49—————————–43—————–48————-+5
60+——————————–45—————–47————+2
————————————————————————————–
b) Demographic margin shifts:
Females———————–HC+16———–HC+11——–HC(-5)
Whites————————-DT+19———–DT+21———DT+2
A/A—————————–HC+66———–HC+62——–HC(-4)
30-49————————–DT+4————-DT+10——–DT+6
60+—————————-DT+1————-DT+4———-DT+3
————————————————————————————-
According to PPD 0% of Democrats are undecided:
HC: 80% DT: 11% GJ: 5% JS: 4%
LA Times daily tracking poll (Oct 16):
Trump: 44. 5 (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.9 (-0.2)
————————————————————————————————
DT+ 0.6 (was DT+0.1 yesterday)
———————————————————————————————–
HC set an all-time low with her margin over Trump with Hispanics: +11.4.
Males: DT+10.1; Females: HC+8.4
@ Austin:
The only pole I pay homage too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEpisuzgnRQ
@ Austin:
” Poles be damned” Dicha of Deborah
These polls of “an hour ago” are already 3-4-5 days old. What about an update….??
@ Goldi Steiner:
In Texas you would be told to get on your knees and pray. I don’t know how that works for us Jews, but it’s an idea.
Everybody knows the boat is sinking, the waters are dangerously turbulent.
But there is a life boat. It is Trump!
What everyone asks is where will it land,
But what is certain, it will not sink!
And more.
For anyone interested polling and forecasting please the following as it shows all the major forecasters. I doubt if any have Trump winning. Let me know if I am wrong in this assumption:
http://www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/
Predict Wise and 538.com are considered the best.
2016 Presidential Election Forecasts
2016 electoral map projections from a wide range of sources. Select any of the links for the latest map and detail. All the maps are interactive, so you can use any of them as a starting point to create and share your own forecast.
Aggregated Maps: Poll-Based | Poll-Based (no toss-ups) | Consensus
Statistical Models: FiveThirtyEight | Princeton | PredictWise | NYT Upshot
Full-time Analysts: Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Cook Political | Rothenberg & Gonzales
Media Analysis: ABC | AP | CNN | FOX | NBC | NPR | The Fix | Governing
honeybee Said:
🙂
@ bernard ross:
xoxoxoxoxoxox
honeybee Said:
🙁
bernard ross Said:
Don’t give up your day job.
which polls to beleive, if any????????
honeybee Said:
heh heh heh 🙂
bernard ross Said:
oy
Bear Klein Said:
as you are well versed on polls I wonder what your thoughts are on this video Ted posted… as they also spoke of forecasting rather than polling…. what are the holes in their polls?
https://www.israpundit.org/archives/63618423
@ Marilyn:Actually Nate collects polls and has three different statistical models he uses. They were very good in the primaries, last election and house elections.
He is not a pollster but a forecaster who uses many many polls, grades them based on past performance and how recently they have been done.
One does not have to like what he is forecasting but no one has proven better. GOP pollsters and forecaster like Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia and others are coming out the same. Unfortunately and sadly there is very little chance anyone but Hillary will be President.
Nate Silver was wrong in the primaries, and his polls are skewed again.
I do not want Hillary to be POTUS either. Yet there is an intellectual dishonesty in presenting half pictures.
All that matter is the electoral college, Trump is right now losing almost all of the swing states. If on election day anything near this
happens he will lose badly. 270 votes needed to win.
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