The World Has Gone Mad! 

BREAKING:Percent of Deaths from the Coronavirus Compared to Deaths From the Flu in the US Reach 0.7% (155/22,000) –

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When compared to other societal ailments, the coronavirus is receiving much more attention.  The common flu does more damage than the coronavirus but the world seems to be reluctant to focus on anything else.

According to overnight updates, the number of coronavirus cases in the US now stands at 9,464 cases.  The number of related deaths stands at 155:

According to the CDC, the number of flu cases confirmed in the US since September currently stand at 222,552 cases with 22,000 deaths:

The number of coronavirus cases confirmed in the US as a percent of the number of flu cases confirmed in the US now stand at 4.2% (9,464/222,522).   The percent of deaths from the coronavirus to deaths from the flu is 0.7% (155/22,000).  

In the past few days the number of deaths in the US from the coronavirus passed the number flu deaths in Hong Kong (7-8 million people) which were 113.

As we reported previously, since the beginning of the year the flu in Hong Kong has been much more consequential than the coronavirus:

The Centre for Health Protection announced today that the winter flu season has ended. During this period, 113 adults died of influenza and no deaths from children were recorded. The Centre reminds the public that although the winter flu peak period has ended, citizens should continue to maintain personal and environmental hygiene to prevent respiratory diseases.

There have been 4 deaths from the coronavirus to date in 2020 in Hong Kong. 

The US is now willing to spend $1 trillion on the coronavirus.  It would be nice to see this go to other ailments where it might be better used.

March 19, 2020 | 67 Comments »

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  1. Most of the current antiviral therapeutics act for inhibiting specific viral proteins, e.g. essential viral enzymes. Unfortunately, this approach has been ineffective because of drug resistance developed by viruses, especially in the case of RNA viruses which can mutate very rapidly. The next?generation antiviral therapeutics are emerging which target host proteins required by the pathogens, instead of targeting pathogen proteins. If these host factors are indispensable for pathogens, but not essential for host cells, their silencing may effectively inhibit infections without developing drug resistance rapidly 1, 21, 22. Another alternative approach is to inhibit the interactions between these host factors and pathogen proteins, instead of targeting the proteins 23. The development of these novel strategic therapeutic approaches against infectious diseases raises the need for enlightening the infection mechanisms through PHIs, in order to identify putative host?oriented anti?infective therapeutic targets. To understand the complex mechanisms of infections, computational analysis of underlying protein interaction networks may serve crucial insights to develop non?conventional solutions 2, 14, 24. This study of computational analysis of virus–human interactomes aims to provide initial insights on the infection mechanisms of DNA and RNA viruses, comparatively, through the observation of the characteristics of human proteins interacting with viral proteins. The common and special infection strategies of DNA and RNA viruses found here may lead to the development of broad and specific next?generation antiviral therapeutics.

    Full scientific article at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5221455/

  2. @ adamdalgliesh:
    RNA viruses mutate. DNA viruses do not.

    A Biology major who is now a physician was explaining this to me.

    I like Rush Limbaugh but I am was not aware he is a physician or biologist.
    I prefer to get science information or medical information from scientists or doctors and not journalists or former English professors no matter how much they think they know. Your view of the stats on this subject are also not of any interest to me.

  3. @ Edgar G.:
    What you say about the medieval period is all true. But it is also true that most medieval people were very hardworking. Many were inventive and creative. And most of them were remarkably cheerful, given how hard and unpleasant and dangerous their lives were. Their courage and willingness to go on with normal life even in the face of overwhelming disasters like the Great Plague is why we are here today. Without their remarkable courage and optimism, very few of us would be alive tday, and there would probably be no such thing as Western civilization.

    By contrast, people today expect to be protected from all dangers and to live long, comfortable lives. At the slightest hint that that might not be the case, they go into panic mode and hunker down, afraid even to leave their homes. And governments not only encourage but even mandate this self-destructive behavior. This may bring on us disasters as bad or nearly so as the medieval Great Plague.

  4. @ Bear Klein: Viruses are constantly mutating. New viruses appear every year, probably every month. That is an integral part of the evolutionary process. However, most mutations are not especially dangerous, and their impacts on the human body are usually not very different from that of the “parent” virus. There is usually a new strain of flu every year, resulting from the mutation of an older flu virus. It’s true that some strains of flu cause more serious illnesses and deaths than others. That’s one reason why deaths from seasonal flu go up or down every year. But when all is said and done, all these mutations are strains of the flu, which has been around for thousands of years. All are dangerous.

    The same is probably true of all five known strains of the coronavirus, including the “novel” one first detected by a Chinese scientist in 2019. The new strain, like the previously known ones, probably just causes a cold when it infects someone. However, contrary to what most people believe, all cold viruses can be very dangerous when they are contracted by the elderly and/or people with preexisting conditions, and especially those with both risk factors. Colds can develop complications that lead to pneumonia, just as influenza can.

    Rush Limbaugh is probably right when he says the COVID-19-associated illness is just a cold. But he probably doen’t know that catching any cold can be very dangerous if you have a serious pre-existing illness, like Limbaugh’s cancer.

  5. @ Reader:

    The virus is mutating right now because it is what is called an RNA virus. The Chinese scientists have mentioned that already. There has been at least one mutation all ready.

  6. @ Reader:
    It is not recent at all! You had erroneous information. Just make sure medical insurance in the US covers you in Israel until you make aliyah if this something you decide to do. Israeli insurance can not kick in until you make aliyah.

  7. @ adamdalgliesh:
    There will never be complete statistics on coronavirus because this would require testing of the whole populations of every country which is physically impossible.
    However, once they come up with a vaccine, they may make it mandatory (because of all the hysterics) and that practically untested vaccine may itself cause complications and even deaths.
    The last one caused miscarriages in pregnant women and, I think, even sterility in some cases.
    Then the virus will mutate as viruses are prone to do.

  8. @ adamdalgliesh:

    Adam- The Medieval Period was particularly known for massive superstition, compete lack of even basic medicine-other than dubious herbs and grotesque “cures”, complete lack of hygiene, and strong adherence to Religious Faith, which caused them to face death more easily, and sometimes even with serene fatalism-I believe..

    There can be NO vestige of comparison between then and now-so I think you’re considerably overstating your point.

  9. “While People are Panic-Selling Stocks, the World’s Richest Gobble Up Huge Sales
    Posted by Shaun Cox | Mar 20, 2020 | Investing
    While People are Panic-Selling Stocks, the World’s Richest Gobble Up Huge Sales
    While people are freaking out over the coronavirus crash, far too many are also panic-selling stocks, leaving the world’s richest to gobble up what they see as big-time sales and “bargains of a lifetime.”

    With markets tumbling from record highs in record time, names like Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn, among others, have spent more than $1 billion combined to bump their holdings in good companies whose shares have been slashed to bargain-basement prices.” From the March 20 Money and Markets site.

    Amazon’s profits have soared as many shopping malls and department stores have closed, some of them for good. Many people can now only get things online. Even many supermarkets a much larger number of small markets have closed, while stores that can afford to deliver food to people at home, such do some Walmarts, are making huge profits. It is mainly the very biggest food retail chains that can afford to make home deliveries. So the food retail industry is “consolidating. ” Those already very rich, like Jeff Bezos and the Walmart heirs, are going to get even richer, while most of us will become much poorer.

  10. @ Bear Klein:
    “one goes to the Ministry of the Interior and changes their status to oleh (immigrant).”
    I hope you are right because this thought occurred to me then but I was told that this cannot be done.
    Does the stay need to be the full six months or you can apply to change your status earlier?

  11. @ Reader:
    I got a letter from a rabbi (I did not know) in the US to prove I was Jewish. My dad had a long time friend who was at his wedding who testified to the rabbi that the wedding was Jewish. The Rabbi then wrote a letter on my behalf and I took this letter as proof to the local rabbi in Israel who officiated my wedding.

    If your family practices Judaism, it’s very simple – present your parents’ marriage certificate (from their Jewish wedding, not civil wedding). Or their divorce certificate, if relevant.

    If not parents – grandparents also works.

    If you or a parent or grandparent converted to Judaism, presenting their conversion certificate is an option. Reform and Conservative conversions count when it comes to immigration to Israel, although they won’t be enough to prove Jewishness within Israel (see warning below).

    If a family member has received Israeli citizenship by claiming Jewishness, it may be enough to prove that you are related to them (for somewhat close relations – a fifth cousin in Israel won’t help).

    If it’s not that easy:

    You can also get a letter from a rabbi testifying that you are Jewish. This has to be a rabbi who actually knows you and/or your family. It also has to be someone the Ministry of the Interior recognizes as a rabbi.

    There are still other ways. Anyway I have to go now. So I am cutting off my input on this subject, certainly.

  12. @ Reader:
    I was not implying you go to a kibbutz.

    What I was implying is that if one really wants to go Israel from the USA is that they can buy an airplane ticket and stay there on a tourist visa for six months. Make a pilot trip out of it and examine if it is for you. If it works then one goes to the Ministry of the Interior and changes their status to oleh (immigrant). They would to prove they are Jewish.

    However clearly one needs to be positive and determined to make it in Israel. It is much easier to stay in the US or Canada for most because they it is what they know. Yes, this is easier for a younger person to do.

    I know older people who made it work. Different strokes for different folks!

  13. @ adamdalgliesh:
    “the disease control authorities all over the world, together with the governments that employ them or work with them, decided that coronavirus was a dangerous disease because the Chinese government and “experts” told them it was.”
    Do you really think that the powers that be all over the world are THAT DUMB?

  14. @ Bear Klein:
    “Younger people have more opportunities, Older people can succeed but …etc.”
    These are handy assumptions and excuses. And this is exactly why the Jewish Agency prefers certain categories of people over other categories (for their own good, of course, and for the good of these preferred categories who won’t have to die in the next Holocaust in the Diaspora like those burdensome old and poor Jews, and for the good of the Jewish State).
    20K was 12 years ago, now it must be much more even though “there is no inflation”.

  15. @ Reader:
    I got a letter from a rabbi (I did not know) in the US to prove I was Jewish. My dad had a long time friend who was at his wedding who testified to the rabbi that the wedding was Jewish. The Rabbi then wrote a letter on my behalf and I took this letter as proof to the local rabbi in Israel who officiated my wedding. https://www.jpost.com/Cafe-Oleh/Ask-The-Expert/Ask-the-aliya-experts-How-do-I-prove-Im-Jewish

    If your family practices Judaism, it’s very simple – present your parents’ marriage certificate (from their Jewish wedding, not civil wedding). Or their divorce certificate, if relevant.

    If not parents – grandparents also works.

    If you or a parent or grandparent converted to Judaism, presenting their conversion certificate is an option. Reform and Conservative conversions count when it comes to immigration to Israel, although they won’t be enough to prove Jewishness within Israel (see warning below).

    If a family member has received Israeli citizenship by claiming Jewishness, it may be enough to prove that you are related to them (for somewhat close relations – a fifth cousin in Israel won’t help).

    If it’s not that easy:

    You can also get a letter from a rabbi testifying that you are Jewish. This has to be a rabbi who actually knows you and/or your family. It also has to be someone the Ministry of the Interior recognizes as a rabbi.

    There are many ways to do this. One source if you actually interested https://www.jpost.com/Cafe-Oleh/Ask-The-Expert/Ask-the-aliya-experts-How-do-I-prove-Im-Jewish

  16. @ Bear Klein: All these are meaningless garbage statistics. Only reported cases. No reports on the possibly millions of cases in which the “victims” may have recovered quickly and never visited a doctor, because they just thought they had a cold.–of which scientifically COVID-19 is just a new variety. No reports at all on those who were also suffering from other infectious diseases, such as pneumonia, bronchitis, even tuberculosis, at the time their “novel coronavirus” was “detected.” No attempt to determine whether it was the coronavirus or one of these other viruses or bacteriological infections that actually caused their death. No statistics whatsoever about people who were never detected with coronavirus, but died of other infectious diseases. Precise looking statistics that look like they are exact figures, but when you read the fine print, turn out to be “estimates” based on incomplete data. Not only estimates, but ones where the “low-end” estimates and the “high-end” estimates are made according to different criteria–in other words, mingling apples and oranges to come up with an estimate of apples. Garbage in, garbage out.

    Obviously, the disease control authorities all over the world, together with the governments that employ them or work with them, decided that coronavirus was a dangerous disease because the Chinese government and “experts” told them it was. Because China is a major economic and military power in the world, which gives them enormous prestige, and because they have become active participants in international scientific and medical research, all the foreign governments and “experts” simply assumed the Chinese had reached the right conclusions, and then manipulatd their own very selective, limited and inaccurate statistics to persuade the public, and their own governments, that the Chinese were correct. The most outrageous example in history of irrational thinking and a herd instinct by educated people who should know better wreaking havoc on the world.

  17. @ Reader:
    @ Bear Klein:
    ” can not prove that they are Jewish? There are many ways to do this so I highly doubt your statement.”
    Please, enlighten me on the many ways to prove Jewishness. I’ll be happy to read about them.
    American Jews have no state ids with their religion or ethnicity listed, the vast majority are not Orthodox or even Jewishly observant, Reform and Conservative docs probably don’t count.
    What else is left?

  18. @ Reader:
    You are correct it is easier for younger people to make aliyah.

    Younger people have more opportunities, Older people can succeed but it is not as easy to learn Hebrew when you are older and this does not help an absorption process. Ted, came when he was older perhaps at some point he may want to describe his aliyah.

    Adjusting to a new country is hard. One must be very determined to make aliyah because moving is hard. If the paperwork scares one away already, trust it would be not easy adjusting to Israel. A positive attitude and fortitude help a lot! A negative attitude is complete defeatism!

    Yes, if you are older and do not have 20K oer year including social security it would be hard to get by. It would be hard to get by in the US also no?

  19. @ Bear Klein:
    You will not convince me, I’ve dealt with these people.
    The director of NBN proudly announced 12 years ago that this organization is run like a business!
    I was told by one of them that to live in Israel I need $20,000/yr for the 1st year.
    They also want those who can afford a “get acquainted” trip to Israel to see where they want to live.

  20. @ Bear Klein:
    Yes, you did it very simply, you were 20-30 years old, not 70 or 80.
    No, I am not making aliyah. Like I said, I’ll be turned away from even applying for the reasons of age and income, and I already went through this degrading experience 12 years ago when I had the same romantic views that you still hold today.
    If you are implying that I should go work on a kibbutz first, you must be making a joke.

  21. Twenty-four people hailing from New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania landed at Ben-Gurion International Airport on Thursday to start new lives in Israel through an aliyah flight and program organized by Nefesh B’Nefesh, in cooperation with the Ministry of Aliyah and Integration, the Jewish Agency for Israel, Keren Kayemeth LeIsrael and Jewish National Fund-USA.

    The new immigrants (olim) included 10 families and singles ranging in ages from a 9-month-old to a 73-year-old, and two sisters who decided to make aliyah together.

    https://www.jns.org/24-new-olim-to-israel-arrive-from-us-on-group-flight/

  22. @ Reader:
    When I made aliyah I did it very simply, I went to the Jewish Agency who helped me find a kibbutz ulpan to go to. I just went on my US passport on a tourist visa. This was good for 6 months. Then while in Israel I went to the Misrad HaPanim (Ministry of Interior) and changed my status to an oleh (immigrant).

    I do not know if this would simpler or harder today,

    Anyway I wish you luck in your aliyah process if that is what you are doing.

  23. @ Reader:
    You know for a fact and can provide proof, that 9 out of 10 Jews in the USA can not prove that they are Jewish? There are many ways to do this so I highly doubt your statement. I said it was a pain for me and was for many others. Not for you great.

    Do not worry American Jews will not be making aliyah in mass. I would be ecstatic if 10% made aliyah. This would be great for Israel. 25,000 to 50,000 per year would be wonderful. Right now it is about 3K per year I believe.

  24. @ Bear Klein:
    I didn’t say that “proof of Jewishness” was a pain in the butt, not for me, anyway, I have it.
    I said that the Jewish Agency discriminates its aliyah applicants by age, fitness, and income and ALWAYS HAS.
    Instead of talking to those who MADE aliyah, why don’t you try talking to those who were REFUSED even a conversation with the shaliach or who were REFUSED aliyah – not because of the “proof” (if you can locate these people).
    When YOU made aliyah, you were almost 50 years younger than you are today which supports my point of view AND my personal experience.
    I also said that 9 out of 10 of the American Jews DOES NOT have a proof of Jewishness.
    What I meant is that they CANNOT ever obtain it (even for one of their grandparents).
    This is why if they decide on mass aliyah, they are either: going to hit a stone wall OR Israel will have to close its eyes and let them all in despite the Rabbanut’s freaking out.
    And if there ever is a mass aliyah from the US, I don’t think these olim will be as wealthy as everybody thinks the Amercans are, it may be quite the opposite.
    Plus 71% intermarruage rate.

  25. @ Reader:
    Having made aliyah and knowing many other people who did I stand by my comment. I agree the paperwork or proof of being Jewish is a pain in the butt. It was not for me coming to Israel but when I got married in Israel it was a major major pain in the ass. It is worse now than when I came first to Israel in the 1970s.

  26. @ Reader:
    Also, every person who is of age, has to apply for aliyah separately, so that parents of adult children have to apply separately from them which affects, let’s say, a single parent and his or her adult child who are living together.
    You are also supposed to get permission from your long ago divorced spouse and to describe all your health issues.

  27. @ Bear Klein:
    “Israel accepts aliyah of Jews of all types and ages from around the globe.”
    I didn’t say it doesn’t. They just better be healthy, wealthy, young, fit, and with no pre-existing health conditions.
    You can check my statement by calling the Aiyah Center in your area and giving them the info that doesn’t fit the above criteria and see if they even let you talk to the shaliach on the telephone.
    NefeshB’Nefesh has the same policy (they will tell you to call the Aliyah Center first).
    Personally, I think the American Jews should be getting out of the US (unless it’s already too late) but a mass aliyah from the US will be a major disaster because 90% of the American Jews have no so-called proof of Jewishness.

  28. @ Bear Klein:
    “people could be locked down for 18 months”
    Believe it or not, I’d been expecting this “pandemic” thing almost since the last one but, being a pessimist, I expected ethnic detention camps.
    It’s better than I thought, so far, but who knows for how long.

  29. Also, please retrieve my comments about how this overreaction to coronavirus is likely to be a self-fulling propecy that brings about the health disater it is supposed to prevent.

  30. Ted, please retrieve from the trash my last comment on how the medival response to sickness was actually healthier than our present-day response. It is highly relavant to the coronavirus debate.

  31. The worst aspect of the coronavirus prophecies of doom is that they will be self-fulfilling. Social contact, as well as sunshine and fresh air are vital to human survival, especially for the elderly. Deprived of human contact, social life and fresh air, people, especially the elderly, will die in huge numbers. While the flu season usually end by early April or May at the latest, it may well go on for 18 months and the death rate may well explode exponentially–not because of the “novel” coronavirus (a variety of cold virus), but because of the destructive and irrational methods adopted supposedly to contain it by governments.

    Another factor that will cause he death rate to soar. will be the destruction of the world, and American, economies. People need money to survive. Deprived of employment my massive lay-offs and the bankrupting of tens of thousands, perhaps millions, of small businesses that will be forced to close, tens of millions in the U.S. and hundreds of millions worldwide will be unable to afford healthy food. Their deaths will be hastened by malnutrition and vitamin deficiencies. People will be unable to afford medical care-and that will kill them. They will be forced out of their homes and forced to either sleep in the streets or in unhygienic welfare shelters–and that will kill them.

    Never in human history has there been such a mass outbreak of irrationality. Not even in the Middle Ages.

    The bubonic plague that struck with overwhelming force in 1345-52 and that continued with only gradually declining numbers of cases until the late eighteenth century, produced no such mass panic. Farmers kept working their land. Craftsman kept producing goods and services. Mechants kept buying, selling and transporting goods. Food and industrial production actually increased during the worst plague years. Carvivals and mardi gras continued to be held and enjoyed by all, healthy and sick alike. Public ceremonies continued. Landlords continued to collect their rents and tenants continued to grumble about them. Kings and other rulers continued to collect taxes, and everyone grumbled about them of course. Parliaments continued to appropriate funds and pass laws. Painters continued to paint, scuptors to sculpt, writers and poets to write. Mostly they wrote about other subjects than the plague. Humorous and downright dirty stories were especially popular, as were love songs.

    People who survived mourned their deceased loved ones for a brief time, and then quickly got on with their lives.

    All this was a mentally healthy response to the tragedy. Despite the immense death toll, the progress of civilization and the growth of the world economy were not even interrupted. The development of new technologies continued. If everyone had hunkered down in their homes like our cowardly generation, not only would nearly all of them have died, but Western civilization would have ended.

    We’ed be much better off if we were courageous and cheerful like medieval people.

  32. @ Reader:
    Israel accepts aliyah of Jews of all types and ages from around the globe. Some have money, some do not, some are young and some are old.

    As Israel celebrates Aliyah Day, 2019 figures point to a peak year
    According to official statistics, 28,629 olim arrived in Israel between January and October 2019.

    The breakdown of the numbers for the period of January through October 2019 is as follows: 12,722 from Russia; 5,247 from Ukraine; 2,470 from the United States; 276 from Canada; 143 from Australia; 1,996 from France; 469 from the UK; 350 from Brazil; 321 from South Africa; 93 from Venezuela; 127 from Mexico and 143 from Turkey.
    According to government agencies, olim also arrived from Muslim countries, including 57 from Iran.
    Even Thailand and Japan are represented in this year’s figures, with 14 olim arriving from former and 5 from the latter.

  33. @ adamdalgliesh:
    Aliyah to Israel:
    Israel wants the healthy, fit (and, preferably, wealthy) contingent of those younger than 36 years old, and the wealthy retirees. The rest need not apply.

  34. One study that has shocked is:

    Shocking coronavirus study says people could be locked down for 18 months
    The Imperial College London report also says millions would die and that health systems would be overwhelmed.
    To mitigate the disaster new measures would need to go into place immediately.

    The United States and United Kingdom received information from an Imperial College London coronavirus report that was published on March 16.
    Dozens of experts had informed policy makers that modeling showed millions would die and that health systems would be overwhelmed, the report said. A fight against the virus could go on for 18 months, it said.

    To mitigate the disaster, new measures would need to go into place immediately and last for months before being relaxed. Life would never be the same, the report said.

    This shocking study appears to have caused both US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to shift course and increase testing and measures.

    In Israel, the virus threat was taken seriously much earlier, but cases have increased to beyond 500 nevertheless. Israel has more cases per capita than either the UK or US. With a very limited capacity in hospitals, Israel is correctly concerned about what the models produced at the Imperial College and by other experts show.

    These models don’t only affect Israel, they affect the entire Middle East. Jordan is closing off roads with the army. The Gulf states are stopping flights. The Kurdistan region of Iraq is under curfew.

    The language of the coronavirus crisis, such as “flattening the curve,” concerns of ventilators and intensive-care units and social distancing, are all found in the March 16 study.

    https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Shocking-coronavirus-study-says-people-could-be-locked-down-for-18-months-621609

  35. In an ongoing outbreak the final outcomes – death or recovery – for all cases is not yet known. The time from symptom onset to death ranges from 2 to 8 weeks for COVID-19.1 This means that some people who are currently infected with COVID-19 will die at a later date. (So estimate of death rates currently bandied about are useless)

    To understand the risks and respond appropriately we would also want to know the mortality risk of COVID-19 – the likelihood that someone who catches the disease will die from it.

    We will look into this question in more detail below and explain that this requires us to know (or estimate) the number of total cases and the final number of deaths for a given infected population. Because these are not known, we discuss what the current data can and can not tell us about the risk of death

    See professional article at: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

  36. Panic about Covid-19 (justified or not) was caused by projections of deaths that could be worldwide up to 10 million and up to 1.5 million in the USA. US & Israeli authorities among others are trying to keep their respective hospitals from being overwhelmed.

    So they are doing things to try and prevent people from getting the disease for which no vaccine or proven treatments currently exist. They are stopping elective procedures in many or most US hospitals to keep the beds open for the very sick in order to save lives. The Italian and Iranian situations are prime examples of when a health system gets overwhelmed.

  37. The reason for the panic (justified or not) is since there are no vaccines or proven treatments for Covid-19 estimates of deaths alone range up to 10 million worldwide or range from 500,000 to 1.5 million in the USA. These numbers were presented in physician panels. So the authorities around the world are trying to mitigate the number of sick and dead.

    The US & Israel are trying to keep their respective healthcare systems from being overwhelmed so as not to become like Italy. So they are not doing elective surgeries to keep hospital beds open for the very sick in order to save lives.

    BioHub Panel on COVID-19

    March 10, 2020

    Panelists
    Joe DeRisi: UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher. Co-president of ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford). Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic.
    Emily Crawford: COVID task force director. Focused on diagnostics
    Cristina Tato: Rapid Response Director. Immunologist.
    Patrick Ayescue: Leading outbreak response and surveillance. Epidemiologist.
    Chaz Langelier: UCSF Infectious Disease doc

    What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists. I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.

    Top takeaways
    At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.
    Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to “flatten the curve”, to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.
    How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
    We are moving from containment to care.
    We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
    40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
    [We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that’s 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
    The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
    This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.

    The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]
    Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
    I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
    And we’ll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year.

  38. EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Situation Report for March 18 reported 191,127 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 7,807 deaths across 161 countries/territories/areas, an increase of 15,123 cases, 786 deaths, and 1 country from the previous day. The WHO also reports COVID-19 data by region: Western Pacific 91,845 cases and 3,357 deaths; Europe 74,760 cases and 3,352 deaths; South-East Asia 538 cases and 9 deaths; Eastern Mediterranean 18,060 cases and 1,010 deaths; Americas 4,979 cases and 68 deaths; Africa 233 cases and 4 deaths. It appears that much of the data from the Americas did not update, so it is likely that the cases will increase substantially in the next Situation Report.
    Correction: Yesterday, we mistakenly reported 873 deaths for both the Eastern Mediterranean and Americas regions. This was the correct value for Eastern Mediterranean, but the Americas should have been reported as 68 deaths.

    We were unable to access the Iranian Ministry of Health website, but the WHO Situation Report reports 16,169 confirmed cases, including 988 deaths—1,178 new cases and 135 new deaths since Iran’s previous report. The Italian National Institute of Health’s reported 31,772 cases (3,479 new), including 2,898 healthcare workers (269 new), and 2,390 deaths (387 new) nationwide. Spain’s Ministry of Health reported 17,147 confirmed cases (3,431 new) and 767 deaths (169 new). Public Health France reported 9,134 confirmed cases and 244 deaths. Germany’s Robert Koch Institute reported to 8,198 confirmed cases (1,042 new) and 12 deaths. The South Korean CDC reported 8,565 confirmed COVID-19 cases (152 new), including 91 deaths (7 new). Pakistan’s Ministry of National Health Services reported 302 confirmed cases (61 new), including its first 2 deaths. Canada reported 690 confirmed cases (121 new; 21.2% increase), including 1 death.

    WHO’s Africa Regional Office (AFRO) dashboard reports 357 confirmed cases in African Region countries and 635 cases across the entire continent (129 new). Most of the cases have been reported in Egypt (196), South Africa (116), and Algeria (72), but 34 countries across the continent have reported cases. AFRO also published its weekly External Situation Report . In the past week, 18 new countries have reported COVID-19 cases. Notably, the index case in every country in the African Region had recent travel, including to Europe, the United States, Japan, and Iran. Twelve countries have reported local transmission. The Situation Report also provides information on preparedness and response activities in Africa, including WHO training, building laboratory capacity, risk communication, and supply logistics (e.g., for personal protective equipment).

    For the first time since the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic, China’s National Health Commission reported no new domestic cases. There were 34 new reported cases, but all were imported from other countries. China has reported a total of 80,928 confirmed cases, including 3,245 deaths (8 new). A total of 7,263 active cases remain, including 6,744 in Wuhan. Hong Kong reported 192 confirmed cases (25 new). Of the 25 newly reported cases , 22 had recent travel history outside Hong Kong. Hong Kong has previously reported 4 COVID-19 deaths. Taiwan CDC reported 108 total cases (8 new), including 29 domestic and 71 imported, and 1 death.

    The US CDC reported 7,038 total (confirmed and presumptive) COVID-19 cases and 97 deaths across all 50 states as well as Washington, DC; Puerto Rico; Guam; and the US Virgin Islands. This represents a 66.5% increase in reported cases and a 29.3% increase in deaths from the previous day. Of these cases, only 545 have an identified source (travel-related or close contact of another identified case) and 6,493 cases (92.2%) are still under investigation. The Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard is reporting a total of 9,415 COVID-19 cases and 150 deaths in the United States as of 7:30am on March 19.

    The New York Times is compiling national-level COVID-19 incidence data to track the epidemic curves in real time.

    https://myemail.constantcontact.com/COVID-19-Updates—March-19.html?soid=1107826135286&aid=alghgrXKPkE

  39. @ Ted Belman: Fascinating. Conforms what my research has led me to conclude.

    That conclusion is that we have absolutely no reliable statistical data on which to base the conclusion that COVID-19 is a serious threat to public health. That is because we have no data on the total number of people who have died or become seriously ill who had, or have, other infectious agents in their system.

    The only evidence that we have that is even fairly reliable is the anecdotal evidence cited by Bear and others. And event that anecdotal evidence is extremly selective, since cases in which whole families or many people in one nursing home have died after becoming infected with micobes other than COVID-19 have not been reported, either by the press or the CDC.

    I am really sorry that your correspondent’s aliya plans were defeated by those medievel Shas (or was it the Ashkenazic Torah party?) types. No only the haredi, parties, but also all kinds of other Israeli bureaucrats working for the Jewish Agency and the state immigration bureau are working full time to weed out would-be slim.

  40. I received this email from a US doctor.

    You undoubtedly won’t remember me, but I spoke to you on the telephone the very night before you left Canada to make aliyah.

    I am taking what, for me, is an unusual step in writing to a political web site (because I don’t want to be on any more “enemy lists” than absolutely necessary, thank you). But, under the circumstances, I must commend you for having the courage to publish the Lloyd Marcus “How Long Will Americans Tolerate Corona-Madness?” article. I’ve been saying the same thing for about 2 weeks now, and not a single New Yorker will listen to me.

    Marcus is actually a bit short – there were, I think, closer to 40,000 flu deaths in America in the last counting season (2018-2019). The “government” did ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. No school closures. No restrictions on people getting together. No businesses shut down (many of which will fail if this insanity doesn’t stop soon). No sports seasons cancelled. No international travel bans.

    Yet now, a year later, all these monstrous things are happening because of less than 200 deaths. Clearly this is an exercise in people-control. Hitler himself didn’t do any better using murder as the motivating factor. We Americans have turned into a nation of despicable cowards. This is not the spirit that won World War II, or the spirit that enabled Israel to defeat the miserable terrorists at Entebbe.

    Thank you for taking a courageous stand. I hope to meet you someday, but I probably won’t. My aliyah application was accepted, then, after Shas took over, retroactively rejected, for rather medieval reasons. But HaShem is looking. Black robes and multitudes of words do not make a prophet.

  41. The COVID-19 virus tore through a New Jersey family in recent days, infecting seven people and killing three — including the 73-year-old matriarch who had 11 children and 27 grandchildren.

    The New York Times reported Wednesday that Grace Fusco died Wednesday night after a brief battle with the coronavirus. She was so ill that she was unaware that two of her children — Rita Fusco-Jackson of Freehold, New Jersey; and Carmine Fusco of Bath, Pennsylvania — also had died from the virus.

  42. As of today 114 Americans have died from the #ChineseCoronaVirus. By the end of this month America will have earmarked almost one TRILLION dollars in relief and stimulus funds. Imagine if we had invested this energy fighting drunk driving, opioid addiction, and gang violence.

    — James Woods (@RealJamesWoods) March 18, 2020

    Or how about just leaving that money in the private sector and allow Americans to keep their money rather than give it to Washington?