With a new U.S. president, new ideas are emerging on how to resolve the Israel-Palestine debacle. One of the most promising comes from the Jordanian Opposition Council who favor a new Palestinian state — in Jordan.
By Ted Belman
The GOP unanimously approved a pro-Israel platform at their convention in July 2016 which stipulated:
“The U.S. seeks to assist in the establishment of comprehensive and lasting peace in the Middle East, to be negotiated among those living in the region,”
David Friedman and Jason Greenblatt, representing Donald Trump, participated in the drafting and were in complete agreement with the final text.
Gone was any reference to the Palestinian people or to a two-state solution. In addition, the platform included the words “We reject the false notion that Israel is an occupier.” If not an “occupier,” then presumably Israel is a sovereign.
Accordingly, the search is on for an alternate solution. Such a solution could take inspiration from the short-lived Feisal/Weizmann Agreement of 1919. The essence of this agreement was that Palestine as it then was, was to be divided into two states, one for the Arabs and one for the Jews. Chaim Weizmann on behalf of the Jews agreed to help develop the Arab state and Emir Feisal agreed to welcome Jewish settlement in the Jewish state and favored friendly cooperative relations.
Although the British didn’t breathe life into this agreement, they did separate Trans-Jordan from Palestine in 1922 with the Jordan River being the boundary between them. Trans-Jordan (Jordan) thus got 78% of the lands promised to the Jews. The remaining 22% consisting of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean was to be the Jewish state. This was enshrined in the Palestine Mandate signed by the League of Nations in 1922.
On June 30, 1922, a joint resolution of both Houses of Congress of the United States unanimously endorsed the “Mandate for Palestine,” confirming the irrevocable right of Jews to settle in Palestine—anywhere between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.
With respect to the Arabs living in Jewish Palestine, the Congressional Record contained the following:
“(2) That if they will not consent to Jewish government and domination, they shall be required to sell their lands at a just valuation and retire into the Arab territory which has been assigned to them by the League of Nations in the general reconstruction of the countries of the east.
(3) That if they will not consent to Jewish government and domination, under conditions of right and justice, or to sell their lands at a just valuation and to retire into their own countries, they shall be driven from Palestine by force.”
The US was not a member of the League of Nations at this time. In order to be able to protect American interests in Palestine, she entered into the 1924 Anglo-American Convention in which the U.S. bound itself to the terms of the Mandate. This of course meant the recognition of Jewish right to close settlement of Palestine and that all of Palestine was to be the Jewish homeland.
Since then, there were a number of unsuccessful attempts, contrary to the terms of the Mandate, to further divide Jewish Palestine into two states. UN General Assembly Resolution 181, passed in 1947, recommended partition, but was rejected by the Arabs. The Jews on the other hand took advantage of it and declared their independence in 1948. Israel owes its independence to that declaration and not to Resolution 181, which was only a recommendation, precipitating the move.
Nothing has happened of any legal consequence since, to cancel the right of the Jews to settle and be sovereign over all the land to the Jordan River.
To date Israel has been reluctant to claim sovereignty over these lands as the Arabs living there would then demand citizenship resulting in a binational state. This is unacceptable to most Israelis. They also reject the two-state solution.
So what is the alternative?
Consider for a moment, that if Jordan agrees to grant citizenship to all Palestinians, as their law currently provides, and invites the return of all of them to live and work in Jordan, the conflict would soon be ended. While King Abdullah isn’t about to do so, the Jordan Opposition Coalition (JOC) would. This coalition represents all opposition groups in Jordan that back a secular state. The JOC since its creation six years ago has supported good relations with Israel. It does not include groups that support terrorism. This alliance has agreed to work together in order to form the government of Jordan should King Abdullah abdicate. Although at least 75% of Jordanians are Palestinians, the King has disenfranchised them to a great extent in favor of the ethnic Hashemites and Bedouins.
The JOC has produced a detailed plan, Operation “Jordan in Palestine,” which clearly identifies their goals and the operational steps needed to implement their plan. Copies are available upon request.
All that is necessary for this to come to pass is for the U.S. to instruct the king, who currently spends most of his time outside Jordan, to not return home. Then it would arrange for the Jordanian army, which it controls, to support the next popular Palestinian uprising, and to designate who among them would form the interim government.
The JOC, puts it this way:
This plan seeks to execute a feasible two-state solution where Jordan is the natural homeland for all Palestinians, and Israel becomes sovereign over all soil west to the River Jordan. This could only happen if the corrupt, terror-supporting and double-speaking Hashemite royal family leaves Jordan. The Palestinians often revolt against the regime but the king’s police force puts them down. The American media ignore this solution to the unrest in Jordan.
What is needed is for the U.S. to influence the Jordanian army and security agency to stand with the revolution the next time it breaks out. The security agencies and army are already securing the country without any influence from the king who is mostly abroad. Under these conditions, the king would not return. Once that happens an interim government of secular Palestinians who want peace with Israel could be appointed.
Once the interim government is installed, it will strengthen the economy by stopping theft of government money and ending corruption. It will fully enfranchise the Palestinians. All Palestinians around the world would be welcomed to return to Jordan pursuant the current Jordanian citizenship act, which already recognizes all Palestinians as citizens of Jordan. Many Palestinians will emigrate to Jordan in part because many have family members and friends living in Jordan. Work opportunities as well as a rewarding benefits/welfare system will be made available to them by the new interim government as further inducement.
Israel, with many international partners, including the U.S., could finance the building of a new Jordanian city of 1 million people. This would greatly stimulate the Jordanian economy and would provide work for the returning Palestinians. The new homes could be made available to the returnees and locals at subsidized prices further incentivizing people to return. The ending of King Abdullah’s discrimination against Palestinians living in Jordan, would also contribute to making Jordan a desired immigration destination.
Michael Ross, a Republican, wrote after the election of Donald Trump, “Trump Must Speak to Mudar Zahran“ because Zahran offers the alternate solution that Pres Trump is looking for.
As part of this solution, all Palestinian refugees enrolled with UN Relief And Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East could be repatriated to Jordan and given citizenship. Thus UNRWA could be wound up and the current UNRWA funding could be transferred to Jordan to assist in the resettlement.
According to Moshe Feiglin, the head of the Zehut Party in Israel, the Oslo Accords have cost Israel over 1 trillion shekels since they were signed. In addition, Israel has borne the cost of three military campaigns in Gaza. Finally, Israel supplies to the Palestinians their energy, water and sewage treatment for free or at greatly subsidized prices.
Last summer, Feiglin proposed a Solution in which Israel extends Israeli law from the Mediterranean to the Jordan:
We will give the Arab population in those territories three options: The first is voluntary emigration with the aid of a generous emigration grant. The second is permanent residency, similar to the “Green Card” status in the US – not like what is currently the practice in East Jerusalem. This status will be offered to those Arabs who publicly declare their loyalty to the State of Israel as the state of the Jewish Nation. We will safeguard their human rights and will not do anything like we did to ourselves in Gush Katif. The third option will be reserved for relatively few Arabs, and only in accordance with Israeli interests. Those who tie their fate to the fate of the Jewish Nation, like the Druze, can enter a long-term process of attaining citizenship.
Martin Sherman has published a similar plan which he calls the “Humanitarian Solution” as opposed to a strictly political solution. He summarized all his writings in support of such a plan and published them here.
With an estimated $300,000 per family grant, both he and Feiglin have estimated that incentivized compensated emigration will cost Israel over $200 billion USD but both argue it is feasible and worth doing.
The repatriation of Palestinians to Jordan, as proposed by JOC, would greatly facilitate the Palestinian emigration and greatly reduce the grants needed to incentivize it. UNRWA and the Palestinian Authority would both be wound up.
1.75 million Palestinians live in Judea and Samaria (West Bank). The 800,000 Arabs in Hebron, Nablus, Ramallah, and Bethlehem could remain there as Jorandian citizens. Ramallah is only 42 miles from Amman, the capital of Jordan. A new highway could be built connecting all these cities to Amman. The rest would have to be transferred to Jordan.
The 1.8 million Palestinians living in Gaza, of which 1.3 million are registered as refugees, would be incentivized to emigrate to Jordan. After enough leave, Israel could extend its sovereignty to Gaza thereby ending that perennial problem.
Considering the subsidies that the West provides to UNRWA, Gaza and the PA, this would be a bargain. Given that JOC has tied its fate to Israel, Israel would be happy to contribute to such a solution as the present conflict costs her hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
It really is that simple. There is much more that can be said in support of it.
Prof. Hillel Frisch, a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and Yitzhak Sokoloff, a fellow of the Ingeborg Rennert Center for Jerusalem Studies at Bar-Ilan University recently wrote Trump and the Jordanian Option.
The inauguration of an American administration uncommitted to the principle of an independent Palestinian state provides Israel with the opportunity to advocate a long-term strategic vision of building up a prosperous Jordan that could provide an alternative to the model of a two-state solution based on the Palestinian Authority.
They are wrong to suggest that this can be done with King Abdullah. I believe, as does the JOC, that the king is part of the problem and must be replaced by Palestinians.
Gideon Saar, a touted future Prime Minister of Israel, in his recent article, Goodbye Two-State Solution, wrote:
A Jordanian-Palestinian federative solution would offer the Palestinians space in addition to their autonomy. We could also consider adopting a joint Israeli-Jordanian-Palestinian economic framework. And there are many other ideas that could be constructed as a result of quiet, serious work with the backing of a supportive US administration.
He is right but the ultimate alternate solution is the one put forward by the JOC.
If anyone wants more information or can help this solution get traction, please write me (tbelman3@gmail.com).
Addendum
David Singer suggested drawing a new border in the Israel Jordan peace agreement. I suggest it should be here.
Shiloh and Beit El must remain in Israel yet they lie east of the new road. In some place the new road can be moved a little to the west if there are significant Arab populations to be included. And look at Ariel. It too must be kept on the Israeli side. A very crooked road. That’s why I came to the conclusion that maybe its better to move them all out.
On second thought I have an alternate suggestion:
Rather than draw a new border, transfer the 1.7 million Arabs in J&S and perhaps 100,000 from Jerusalem to Jordan
But leave the Arabs in Gaza. Israel should put Jordan in power there even if she has to defeat Hamas to do so.
Thus only 1.8 million Arabs from J&S and east Jerusalem would have to move.
One more thing. We could build a highway from Gaza to Jordan . This highway could be open to Egyptian traffic and thus Egypt would finally have a land bridge to Jordan which they want. Jordan would thus gain a port on the Mediterranean.
@ Bear Klein:
Where military forces are stationed is a matter for the negotiators to decide.
The overwhelming majority of the Arabs in Judea/Samaria will once again become citizens in the expanded state of Jordan – as they did between 1950 and 1988. The world did not fall in when that happened. Restoring the status quo as far as is now possible as existed on 6 June 1967 – given developments since then – should be the aim of the negotiators.
I found an Al-Jazeera article that said that the Bedouin control both the military and the Muslim Brotherhood which though outlawed, is — through it’s political arm — the largest party in the parliament. As we well know, Hamas is the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. But then I found the oddest article. What do you make of this? Muslim Brotherhood cum Kumbaya or Taquiya?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/a-rebranded-muslim-brotherhood-attempts-a-comeback-in-jordan/2016/09/19/b9be80a6-7deb-11e6-ad0e-ab0d12c779b1_story.html?utm_term=.6fc8f4da6550
http://www.presstv.ir/DetailFa/2016/09/23/485959/Jordan-parliamentary-elections-Muslim-Brotherhood
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/women-muslim-brotherhood-make-gains-jordans-elections-170376146
and Mudar’s full article at Gatestone:
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/2429/jordan-plan-b
and yes another comment referred to this:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/04/two-americans-killed-at-jordanian-airbase
Hard to know who to trust. We have seen where Arab Springs lead in the recent past. Failing to stand by long-time stable “allies” does not create trust in the U.S. as a reliable ally either and makes client states look elsewhere like Russia or China. That was one of the ways that Obama like Carter who abandoned Somoza, Salvadoran Junta and the Shah, and Johnson and Nixon in their abandonment of Vietnam, weakened America. It may make us feel all warm and fuzzy inside for supporting democracy but we got no gratitude for it. Also Clinton and his apology to Iran over the overthrow of Mosadegh. If we engineer a change, it must be in such a way as not to appear as abandoning allies or condemning ourselves, something nobody else does except maybe Germany for the moment and recently Japan a little bit, our word will be worthless. As lawyers say, Our word is our bond.
@ Bear Klein:
adding ynetnews.com report of Jordan’s bombing of ISIS in (probably Daraa province) Syria:
@ yamit82:
We agree on Jordan here. Plus: do not forget the Circassians.
My bet: the WH had Spicer make that statement about “settlements” to give King Abdullah II additional positive PR in Jordan.
And the scrambling media another “Look: a cow, climate change head fake” because surely they believed that it would take another 30 days for SecDef Mattis to present the plan to defeat ISIS before anyone actually did anything, and then there would have to be more endless meetings and cashing in Kerry’s frequent flier miles to pay for something…
@ Mudar Zahran:
Since we supply Jordan with water and gas then de-facto we are then supplying Assad?
david singer Said:
What war? Who will wage war against us? No Arab country will go to war against us today especially over the Palestinians. Will Local Arabs within and over the green line resist? Probably but that’s not war. A- Your plan leaves over a hundred K Arabs within your border and in 10 years that could increase thru higher rates of birth and Arab migration that can’t be stopped to over a million potentially… Already The IDF estimates some 50K illegal Arabs are infiltrating and settling in Arab towns and villages in Israel each year they marry and reproduce and are not counted in official statistics.. I believe nobody know exactly the number but if they say 50K it could easily be 100K as well…. Already the Galil has a majority of Arabs and Negev almost 50%. Lod Acco and Ramle could easily be Gaza in their hatred and opposition to Israel…..Any border solution must take in to account growing Arab demographics within Israel. 35% of Arab children under the age of 10 insures an Arab & Jewish left wing majority in 10 years.
But if you are right and it does lead to war then probably a good thing we should then wage unconditional war to totally destroy the enemy no matter who wages war against us… Do it quickly and with a view of changing the map demographics and our regional geopolitical power….
B- War solves nothing, and peace also solves nothing; in the long run, nothing solves anything. But within reasonably short time frames, wars are remarkably effective: Germans were stopped by war, and so were Arabs on multiple occasions. The Israeli war on Palestinian terrorism stopped the two Intifadas. Peace, on other hand, changes nothing but only formalizes the facts established by war. After the Germans were utterly defeated, peace ensued regardless of whether a peace treaty had been signed. After Israel defeated Syria, there was peace even without a peace treaty. War changes facts, and peace is only the name for the resulting change.
MODERATION bug hit again!
@ david singer:
David no other military forces besides the IDF should be west of the Jordan River.
As Ted said take a look at a map of Judea/Samaria you can make another secure zone out of the PA areas of A/B. The IDF operates their nightly to grab terrorists.
If the Arabs in Judea/Samaria have Jordanian Citizenship great and if they want to move to Jordan or elsewhere even better.
Israel needs to get of the terrorists and their supporters in Judea/Samaria and win the conflict there are no short cuts or simple fixes.
@ Ted Belman:
Didn’t take Zahran too long to rebut your claim. Makes my solution even that more palatable to Trump.
That will be dealt with in the negotiations. Jordan will want its back protected by Israel and will be more than happy to join in arrangements to ensure the security of both Israel and Jordan.
Article 2(3) of the Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty also provides:
What happens to the Arabs in Area B? Do you have a plan that is different to Zahran’s?
You never asked me these questions – but here is my reply.
The refugee issue will be dealt with by the resettlement of the refugees within the borders of the newly expanded state of Jordan or other Arab countries – not Israel.
This is in line with what President Bush committed to Sharon in his letter dated 14 April 2004.
Article 8 of the Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty already sets out the basis for negotiations between Jordan and Israel on the issue of Refugees and Displaced Persons
Gaza could be resolved by building an underground dedicated connecting tunnelto Jordan.
Sydney could build a vehicular tunnel under Sydney Harbour and Hong Kong has done likewise to connect with Kowloon. Gazan Arabs are expert tunnel builders who could build one at a fraction of the cost and be gainfully employed in doing something that is constructive – not destructive.
BTW what are your proposals for resolving the refugee issue and Gaza?
It is not a risk. It would be a fatal mistake. The Hashemites have held power for 95 years and kept 78% of Palestine Jew-free during that time. Not a bad record. Indeed if Jordan had not foolishly entered the Six Day War they would be holding 82% today and we would probably not be having this discussion.
Can you please elaborate precisely why Mudar’s deal is a better deal than redrawing a new international border between Israel and Jordan?
Killer was one of Abu Tayeh Tribe, which is a small tribe known for loyalty to Jordan’s king. We and the families of the three victims share the concern that this murder was carried out to send a certain political message.
“So far he is trying to get rid of them.” NO HE’S NOT!!! they pay full taxes and get ZERO state benefits or welfare, they are like cattle he is milking. He wants them to remain there without any rights and keeps telling them to “someday you shall go home to Palestine”….
@ david singer:
Thank you.Now I understand your proposal. It can only happen if the king wants more Palestinians as Jordanian citizens. So far he is trying to get rid of them. Also your proposal abandons the Jordan River as the border. How will Israel protect the new border? Aside from those problems, my plan allows the Palestinians in the A Areas to remain, ju87st as yours does. Then we both talk about adjustments.
But I go further and show how we can end the refugee issue and the Gaza issue. You are silent on this. Mudar’s plan will deal with both. The primary difference is whether Mudar can hold power whereas the King has been able to hold power. That is the risk with going with Mudar. But for now only Mudar is ready to do it. The King is not about to do it. Or do you have evidence that he is prepared to play ball with moving the border. I doubt Israel is.
So the question becomes, can Trump keep Mudar in power? If he can, then Mudar’s deal is far better.
Mudar says that the US totally controls the army. If he is right then the army can keep him in power just as they are keeping the King in power. But Mudar offers a better deal. So we should go with him.
@ Ted Belman:
Under my proposal a new international border would be drawn between Israel and Jordan which would see parts of Judea and Samaria become part of Israel and the remaining parts become part of Jordan.
The negotiations would be undertaken between Jordan and Israel so as to incorporate within Israel those parts of Judea and Samaria where Jews form the majority of the population – and within Jordan where Arabs form the majority of the population.
Jews and Arabs finding themselves “on the wrong side of the new border” would be offered citizenship or residency within the newly expanded state in which they presently live. Alternatively they could be offered compensation to voluntarily locate to “the right side of the new border” from an international fund established for that purpose.
The number of Jews or Arabs who might face this latter choice would be very small.
95% of the West Bank Arabs already live in Areas “A” and “B” and could reasonably be expected to fall on the Jordan side of the new border.
Drawing a new line in the sand to accommodate as many Jews and Arabs as possible on the “right side of the border” should not be beyond the capacity of two skilled negotiators armed with some sharp pencils and a supply of rubbers.
@ yamit82:
yamit82 Said:
This will clearly not happen under my proposal. No one – Jew or Arab will be forced to leave his existing home.
Your proposal is a recipe for war not peace.
@ yamit82:
Yamit82
Spot on with your comments.
Zahran’s solution is a recipe for total disaster.
@ Bear Klein:
Bear Klein
Your comments are 100% correct.
Trump has made it clear at the National Prayer breakfast in Washington that he is not going to see Abdullah sent packing by some coalition opposition.
My solution involving the redrawing of the international border between Israel and Jordan – backed by American guarantees given to Abdullah – is emerging as the kind of the dream deal Trump would love to make.
I am certainly no greater cheerleader for the King of Jordan. He plays both sides of every conflict in the middle east. Plays nice with Israel behind the scenes but in public is highly provocative about the Temple Mount. So on the one hand he does business with Israel and both cooperate on security.
We have common enemies ISIS and Iran. We have a mutual ally in the USA. We share a long border that is peaceful.
In theory I would love Jordan to be run by democratic people who run free elections. If this happens will Jordan be run by “Palestinians” who want to destroy Israel? Is this more likely than people who want to co-exist in peace who now live in the west?
@ Mudar Zahran:
Kindly explain to me as I am confused by the following:
The USA you state controls the Jordanian military. If so how is it that the three USA soldiers who were killed by Jordanian soldiers are not being charged.
RESPONSES: Thanks to all who have commented.
Jordan’s king controls the MB
Jordan’s king is best friends with MB
Jordan’s king refused to ban them
Jordan’s king said in an interview a year ago: They are a legitimate organization
In her latest interview with CNN, Queen Rania praised the MB
In return, MB issued a statement the NEXT DAY thanking Queen rania
Jordan’s media published the thank you letter
ALL OF THE ABOVE IS DOCUMENTED.
Jordan’s king has no control over the army, Evidence: the last terrorist attack in Kerak, the army REFUSED To take part in countering the terrorists and videos from the Kerak natives were asking: why hasn’t the army done anything.
MB’s voting base is: 250,000 members
MB never won a single seat in the Palestinian constituency in the last 20 years. A look at Jordan’s parliament list on their website shows that.
ALSO:
1-Army is Bedouin: Bedouins hate the king’s guts, they have led protests against him, reason: he has reduced them into poverty, and even retired servicemen have been scammed of their pensions and this is in the news now.
2-Same above goes to security agencies.
3-CIA micromanages army and intelligence agencies of Jordan.
4-We have Bedouins in the coalition.
5-US has fragmented the tribes, distancing tribal men from another inside the army, relatives are never in the same regiment or platoon, this was the work of the US.
6-The minute we take over: Jordan’s National Guard will be established, welcoming Palestinians: They have to be screened, zero connections to Islamists, and their extended families must have never been in PLO or done anything against Israel.
7-Same questions about Jordan’s kings have been raised about Gambia’s president. He was tribal and strong, and unlike the king, he had his own tribe. When CIA wanted him out, he flew 4 Rolls Royces out of the country and left at night without any fuss.
Jordan is a mere extension puppet state that is micromanaged by CIA, whatever Trump wants to happen there will happen.
ALSO: KING HAS OPENLY REFUSED TO SEE ASSAD FALL, KING HAS REFUSED TO SHUT DOWN ASSAD’S EMBASSY AND IRAN’S EMBASSY LIKE ALL GULF STATES DID, AND WAS EVEN ASKED ABOUT THIS IN A CNN INTERVIEW. KING REFUSES OPENLY ANY MILITARY ACTION TO TOPPLE ASSAD, AND ALQUDS ALARABI HAS CONFIRMED THE KING SUPPLIES ASSAD’S ARMY WITH WATER AND GAS.
Sebastien Zorn Said:
Amen !!!!!!
P.S. Never end your sentences with proposition.
yamit82 Said:
Compromise ??? Now there is a word that does not trip lightly off you tongue. At your age are you mellowing?
mrg3105 Said:
“The Law is an ass” “Bleak House” Charles Dickens
@ MELECH david:
You Sir, are an unsung Genius. I love and support your “out the box” thinking.
@ yamit82:
Many of the things written in the following article by Mudar Zahran are not accurate. Some I believe Ted may have based his assertions in this article and commentary on. Feel free to read and ascertain which are accurate. I am sure you will know right off.
For example though he claims the King is an ally of Assad which is not true. Also he claims the King does not control the Army or his intelligence service. Not true also. If he did not control them he would be gone already. Claim that he does not help us with our security. False altogether. It is a joint effort.
In the 50s and 60s when Jordan was the enemy Kibbutzim near the border would get shelled periodically. Most had safe rooms facing Jordan. Terrorists would come across the border at times. Jordan currently is an effective cooperative buffer state.
http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/analysis/jordan-myths-vs-the-shocking-facts/2016/06/20/
david singer Said:
Please explain this in detail.
david singer Said:
Huh??? 22% is not a 100% and partition was illegal and as far as the ratified Mandate it is still illegal… The whole country of Jordan is illegal.
Even if we accept certain realities like Jordan and even if we concede an additional partition why should we concede any part of the West Bank (Y&S) of the Jordan?
My suggested compromise is that if we accept your proposed line of partition giving us 22% of mandatory; then all of the Arabs now holding citizenship in Israel must be resettled beyond that line in Jordan… No Jews in Jordan allowed no Arabs in Israel allowed.
Bear Klein Said:
Like What??
Ted Belman Said:
Every Arab and many non Arab country suppresses dissent. To be fair Jordan seems to be less suppressive and more balanced than most… Main opposition to the King and family seems to be internally: Muslim Brotherhood and their offshoots almost all so called Palis which includes ISIS, al-Qaeda and Hamas. Jordan did not for nothing retract and rescind citizenship for West Bank Palestinians….. They were perceived as a threat. Jordan’s economy is in the tank and certainly cannot support additional unemployable immigrants and additions to it current population.
The Army is not controlled by America?? Where did you get that idea? The Army is 100% loyal to the King and is what has kept the Heshemites in Power all these years. Few Palestinians or non Bedouins are allowed in the army the King is a product of the Army and was a previous active commander of their elite troops. He commands strong loyalty and respect. So much so that there was a lot of internal Bedouin push-back when he married a Palestinian.
Any overthrow of the king I believe will trigger a bloody civil war and no guarantee the Bedouin will lose… That said the winner gets to keep the modern Jordanian army and airforce and in the hands of anyone but the current regime will pose a threat to Israel that so far since 1967 has not existed…..
A weak Jordan run by any faction except the current regime can potentially become a serious threat to Israel that does not exist today….. The new regime can align with any power regional of international not favoring to Israel or can be taken over by outside forces like Iran using Iraqi surrogates or Assad down the road.
Lastly I think it is to Israel’s benefit to keep the King in power for as long as possible and when it is not…. to be careful who we choose to side with in replacing him. Israel can be the pivotal decider in the next post Monarchy regime.
@ Ted Belman:
The Muslim Brotherhood has large potential power in Jordan they are large in number and are affiliated with Hamas.
The King controls the Bedoiun army.
Mudar to be nice is feeding info that is not accurate. I read him making claims all the time that turn out to be not accurate.
The JOC plan is doomed to failure since it involves the removal of King Abdullah and the spending of at least $200 billion to make it happen – not to mention the social, economic and humanitarian upheaval in making people leave their homes and businesses.
A much simpler solution involves redrawing the international boundary between Israel and Jordan in direct negotiations between Israel and Jordan. Under this proposal no one – Arab or Jew – would have to leave his current home or sell up his business.
No Amona style eviction of either Jews or Arabs would occur.
Given Israel and Jordan already have a signed peace treaty in which negotiating parameters on contentious issues such as refugees, water and Jerusalem are already laid down – one could hope the international border could be redrawn within three months.
Result – Israel would end up as sovereign in about 20% of the territory of the Mandate for Palestine (presently 17%) and Jordan would end up as sovereign in about 80% (presently 78%) of the territory of the Mandate for Palestine.
The partition first contemplated by the Mandate in 1922 will have been finally realised.
@ Edgar G.:
@ yamit82:
@ Sebastien Zorn:
To a large extent the king is an absentee monarch. He suppresses dissent through the use of his secret service.
The army on the other hand is controlled by the US. If Trump decides to get rid of the king and appoint the opposition, he can do it because he controls the army. He will simply tell the army to stand down and let the Palestinians take over.
The Palestinians are not in any way connected to Fatah or Hamas. The are pro-Oslo. They will develop their own secret service to suppress any opposition.
Repatriation of Palestinians to Jordan can proceed immediately.
@ WB:
precedent (n.) an earlier event or action that is regarded as an example or guide to be considered in subsequent similar circumstances.
precedent (adj.) preceding in time, order, or importance.
Torah (law) came before ‘international law’, in fact before the principles of international law were conceived by the still-illiterate Greeks.
Using modern international law is therefore useless because it just doesn’t apply no matter how much people deceive themselves to the truth.
But, I agree, the principal task of leadership in Israel is to create a national unity behind the purpose of establishing Israel’s borders as intended by HaShem, not Europeans, or Americans for that matter. Kings, emperors and presidents come and go, but HaShem is forever. The law is always based on the constants, not variables.
The king of J could easily become the king of P.
“joint Israeli-Jordanian-Palestinian economic framework.” like he BeNeLux.
Pay those who’ll leave, give ‘green card’ status to those who deserve it, but get ready to fight (and to fight ‘dirty’) because Islam will NEVER accept us nor allow us to live in peace… until we render them impotent and confiscate their wealth.
Finally, proposals based on actual International Law! But the law, history, and moral arguments won’t ever settle this situation. Only superior force will put an end to the agitations of the Muslims and their well-funded allies.
The State has no problem mustering the resources and manpower needed to destroy Jewish communities. However, among Jews in general there’s an astounding lack of unity and almost zero willingness to use the immense power we have available.
In ‘The True Believer’ Eric Hoffer quotes a reference to the inmates of Buchenwald and how they behaved: “Instead of studying the way in which they could best help each other they used all their ingenuity to dominate and oppress each other.” http://tinyurl.com/pffzmhc
This, unfortunately, is an apt description of what’s really happening in Israel. We need more than good ideas (even the ones based on International Law) — we need fanatical devotion to the Jewish Idea that leads to restoration of the Malchut.
One state is the only solution
BB announces first new Settlement in 25 years and Trump publicly dissed him. So much for BB calling the shots or for Trump and his family and friends putting Israel first. I’m very disappointed in Trump and my opinion of BB has gone up a notch.
http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/netanyahus-reaction-to-amona-expulsion-first-new-settlement-in-25-years/2017/02/02/
@ Birdalone:
BB isn’t invited until Feb. 15. Jordan? Another toothless paper Muslim “ally” and one that’ s been saber rattling against Israel lately for not discriminating against Jews enough for their liking at the Kotel. I don’t like this one little bit. It’s not as bad as that animal*, Obama, making BB take the service entrance, wait for him to finish dinner, and then later talk trash with his feet on the desk but it strikes me as disrespect towards America’s only actual ally.
*First principle of universal morality in my book: People (and peoples) who make Jews (and Israel) victims of racism, themselves, deserve to be victims of racism.
Stepping on people who step on Jews is way more of a priority than peace. Peace is for losers. We need to stop being losers.
@ Birdalone:
BB is invited until Feb. 15. Jordan? Another paper Muslim “ally”. I don’t like this one bit.
This looks bad.
http://www.jta.org/2017/02/02/news-opinion/politics/trump-says-settlement-expansion-may-not-help-peace
I wasn’t going to say anything but these things are starting to add up:
http://www.jta.org/2017/01/31/news-opinion/politics/report-jewish-aide-to-president-donald-trump-wrote-holocaust-statement-that-omitted-jews
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/01/trump-israel-tel-aviv-jerusalem-embassy-netanyahu-palestine-occupation/514367/
http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2017/01/21/faith-leaders-for-america-denounce-imam-mohamed-magid-call-on-president-trump-to-designate-magids-terrorist-muslim-brotherhood/
http://pamelageller.com/2017/01/imam-sajid-tarar-cursed-christians-jews-trump-attended-inaugural-prayer-service.html/
And how long is it going to take to pardon Jonathan Pollard?
George W. Bush did the “religion of peace” number after taking a strong stand and did a somersault on the Pals after refusing to meet with them. I hope we are not going to see this again.
Trump responds to criticism and pressure. If the only pressure he gets is from the opposition, he will take us for granted and make unacceptable concessions. Let Yesha not be one of his expendable bargaining chips.
First of all, we have to take issue with the ridiculous notion that “peace” is a worthwhile goal in and of itself. There are things worth fighting and dying for. Those who do not acknowledge that are paradoxically the most likely to die fighting. Trump’s hero TR understood that. You notice that my form of address has lost its reverence. He’s making progress on the wall and with Iran. The immigration ban was a start. But, Yesha is the issue that determines how I vote. I became a Republican to vote for Huckabee who understands that Eretz Israel is inalienably Jewish from the River to the Sea. I voted for Cruz, because Trump was talking about being even-handed. I only voted for Trump against Clinton. The Jury is out. I won’t vote dem in 4 years but it remains to be seen whether I will vote to re-elect, do a protest vote, or stay home.
Ted: King AbdullahII has been in Washington, DC all week, many official meetings, consider what the msm did NOT cover. Maybe the phone call with Turnbull WAS a deliberate media distraction (head fake in football), from noticing King Abdullah II of Jordan official meetings in DC: Monday Jan 30, official breakfast with VP Pence, followed by SecDef Mattis’ 1st bi-lateral with any ally, then Congress, then meeting with Trump this morning at the National Prayer Breakfast, where Trump’s head fake was about Arnold.
I have been paying close attention to Jordan since Queen Rania was spotted at TTower on Jan 4, meeting Ivanka, but this all flew under my radar until today:
[Posted because of my bet that POTUSTrump’s first foreign visit should be to Jordan, Egypt, and Israel, in that order]
Ted, you need to get your head about the basic issues in the ‘conflict’.
A. Biritish Mandate of Palestine no longer exists, so there are no ‘Palestinians’.
B. Jordan is a river, and the land on the eastern bank is part of Israel also.
C. The Arabs who are not supposed to be in Israel need to leave.
I agree with both Klein and Zorn….Ted I think you are naively being taken for a ride. In the ME only the radicals or military run things and even if this group were all Mother Theresa types and pure at heart and aspirations they would be gobbled up by Hamas or some stronger radical neighbor.
In Jordan the Bedouin run and man the Army not so much the Palis in Jordan. Each group hates the other, get rid of the King the Bedouin would lose their power center and take over the country. Hamas and or other radicals aligned with Muslim Brotherhood would seek to wrest power from Bedouin and a major civil war is likely….. The King and family will be ousted eventually but as long as they are there it’s best for Israel. Want to get rid of Palis ship em to Sinai Gaza or Lebanon and Syria
xxx
TED..none of my posts on this page will print. I just now lost one when I refreshed the page after reposting it 4 times. I don’t know if this one will.
You will notice that my early post is #1 but not counted in the numbers of posts here.A minor thing, I don’t really care but just bringing it to your attention.
Just used edit to show that I see that this was printed.
@ Bear Klein:
xxx
I see that you echo my post above in far fewer words. No, there’s no cure for Anti-Semitism, especially group and genocidal Jew hate -the most enduring disease on the planetThis hate is a generational thing. The most friendly and dbenevolent Arab could live in harmony with Jews all his life, and have children who, one night wil go to a mosque, listen to an imam, and then next day get a bomb belt, or a sharp knofe and hunt Jews.
The word “Jews” seems to act on them the wAY alcohol acted on the American Indians. They have to be crushed and scattered, repeatedly it seems but eventually until they are “clean” in the sense that a drug addict is “clean”. until then…, “lock, stock and barrel”……
None of these very highly unlikely Jordanian scenarios solve the problem.
The problem is the now called Palestinians want to get rid of the Jews and take over the land.
So basically we need to win this conflict in a military operation that is so overwhelming that it kills or captures the vast majority of terrorists and gets rid their supporters. When they have no hope to ever be able to beat the State of Israel and establish a Palestinian State.
The Arabs that are left in Judea/Samaria after this will either need to leave or learn to make co-exist in peace with Israel on its terms.
How much popular support does the opposition have? Is the elected Parliament representative of public opinion?
This Parliament overwhelmingly protested the King’s law banning honor killings in the ’80s or ’90s. I remember reading that in the NY Times.
This Parliament overwhelmingly demanded the release of the killer of Israeli Jewish seventh and eighth grade girls on a class trip to the “Island of Peace”, a joint Israeli-Jordanian project. I posted the Wikipedia article earlier. You mentioned the army. He was a soldier. He was stopped by other soldiers then but where does the army rank and file stand?
Would such an uprising not be another Arab Spring? Could it play into the hands of Hamas? The 1974 phased plan of the PLO calls for taking over Jordan.
It is a mistake to assume that popular uprisings or democratic mechanisms always empower democratic forces. It just as often goes the other way. Look at Egypt. Look at Germany. Look at Iran. Or that the army will not commit genocide or mass murder. Look at Chile. Look at the Philippines, look at Indonesia, look at Turkey; it was the mistakenly praised Ataturk who oversaw the final liquidation and expulsion of the Armenians who were and are Christians. I posted something about this.
Just how big is this opposition? Who supports them?
Time to put substance before form is what I am saying.
Wow. A reasoned, well argued and sensible article with a reasoned and well argued solution. I take my hat off to you sir.
xxx
I read about this oprion a few days ago and was very enthusiastic about it. But I raised the question of a potential problem. That is, that the majority of the YESHA Arabs and of course the Gazans have been brought up for about 2-3 generations to hate the Jews and want to exterminate every single Jew. A huge influx of such people into already unstable Jordan would quite possibly make the whole State into another terror state, regardless of the efforts of the Opposition leaders.. The US, and allies would have to have martial Law for about 10 years to stamp out the venom, which, with the constant proclamations of brainwashed Jihad, would be hard to do..
Still……I love the possibility, and don’t care a damn what happens to the Arabs if they can be pushed across the Jordan. The idea of giving them $300,000 each is just too preposterous to contemplate. A departing kick in their baggy britches would be better. After all, the move is only about 20-30 miles, and a lot less for most. And don’t forget there are also nearly 2 mill Syrians there too. A small settling in fee would be enough.
One error I noticed. Ted…I believe that this Feisal was not then a king. The son of the briefly Royal Hussein of Hejaz,(more than a bit crazy) who was kicked out by Ibn Saud, he was the friend of Lawrence, and at the time of the Weitzman agreement, was some sort of sheik or emir and acting for them at the post-War Conferences. He proclaimed himself king in Damascus and the French kicked him out hard, so the British made him king of Mesopotamia. (He was kicked out again about 10 years later)…
A pretty useless bunch, Abdullah was the best of them and as I’ve posted before, Churchill flew out in haste to offer him Jordan (then called Moab) as a bribe not to attack the French-which he had no ability nor intention of doing anyway. So he got a kingdom for nothing down and nothing a month, in fact he was subsidised by the British at least until Glubb Pasha retired.
A sordid deceit that the British excelled in for hundreds of years.
This sounds really great but remember that Jerusalem is still going be a “burdensome stone”. As prophesied and then there are the 3 or so living generations of Arabs that have been educated to hate and are totally unproductive at anything else. Hamas, the PA would need to be dealt with but: One can sensibly surmise that this solution is still far better than the futile, liberal sell-out of a two state solution that would be suicidal for Israel.
Of course, the British Mandate for Palestine did not include 75% of the land to be handed to Arabs and this suggested solution does not undo that terrible betrayal of Israel and actually legitimizes Jordan. That defiance of the will of G-d will remain as will the hatred of Arabs for the Jewish people be an ongoing threat.