T. Belman. There is no way this article could have been written without following the Jordan Option on Israpundit. It even quotes Mudar Zahran. And the Wall Street Journal published it.
By Daniel J. Arbess, WSJ Jan. 2, 2019
The Trump administration has offered tantalizing clues about its forthcoming “Deal of the Century” for Mideast peace. It could be a bold new concept—replacing the failed “two-state solution” with a Jordan-Israel confederacy, in which Jordan would be recognized as the Palestinian state. Call it the true-state solution.
Palestinians have always been the majority in Jordan, though they haven’t been treated as such since its creation as a British-appointed Hashemite monarchy in 1921. The true-state solution would enfranchise the Palestinians. Jordan would extend citizenship to, and assume administrative responsibility for, Arabs now living on the West Bank of the Jordan River—including the cities of Jenin, Nablus, Ramallah, Bethlehem and Jericho—which would be Israeli territory. West Bank Jordanians could receive financial support to relocate across the river to Jordan itself if they wish, or remain as permanent residents (but not citizens) of Israel. Israelis would be free to live anywhere west of the Jordan River. Variations of this “Jordan option” have received increasing attention across the region in recent years.
Why would King Abdullah II accept such an arrangement? To be blunt, it would be his best option. His rule—and his family’s security and fortune—already teeters under pressure of regional migration and domestic Palestinian discontent. The king’s acquiescence—or possibly U.S.-guided abdication—would probably buy his family’s protection.
Trump administration officials have promised their plan will take advantage of Israel’s recent unprecedented collaboration with its Arab neighbors and other developments that suggest “things can be done today that were previously unthinkable,” as then-Ambassador Nikki Haley said last month. The administration promises a new approach based on practical realities.
Start with a truthful foundation of history. Britain inherited all of present-day Jordan and Israel when the Ottoman Empire dissolved after World War I. The Palestinian Mandate of 1922 divided the area into Arab Palestine (Transjordan), comprising 78% of the territory, and Jewish Palestine (Israel), the remaining 22%. Britain later tried to accommodate Arab opposition by further dividing Israel’s 22% in what became the United Nations Partition Plan of 1947. The Jewish Agency for Palestine immediately accepted that plan. But when the General Assembly passed the resolution recognizing Israel’s independence, the Arab states immediately launched a war, which squandered the Partition Plan’s window for an Arab state on the West Bank.
Jordan, encouraged by Britain, annexed the West Bank in 1950—a move the Arab League bitterly opposed and almost no state recognized. That arguably left Israel with the legal right under the original British Mandate to claim sovereignty over the entire 22% of Palestine outside modern Jordan. Israel’s claim was further consolidated by its victory in the 1967 war. Jordan later disavowed its claim on the West Bank and severed administrative ties in 1988, leaving the status of its former citizens further in limbo.
Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization had tried to win Palestinian control of Jordan, repeatedly attempting to assassinate King Hussein in the 1960s. After the PLO was evicted to Syria by Jordanian troops in “Black September” 1970, the PLO’s narrative shifted entirely to painting Israel as the Palestinians’ “occupier.” Despite underwriting a two-state settlement in the 1993 Oslo Accords, Arafat’s launching of the second intifada seven years later revealed that the PLO’s paramount goal was still rejection and delegitimation of Israel, not coexistence.
West Bank Palestinians have been fortunate to remain in territory under Israeli protection and administration since the 1967 war. They have been unwanted by the Hashemite Kingdom or other Arab nations—then and since. Little wonder that polls suggest a large majority of West Bank Palestinians would prefer life in Israel to being governed by the Palestinian Authority. They seek normal lives, jobs they can travel to and other basic human liberties. This would be possible with a Palestinian role in Jordan’s leadership that not only accepts the Jewish state’s legitimacy and mutual security responsibilities with Israel, as the Hashemite Kingdom already does, but also restores the Palestinians’ Jordanian citizenship and coordinates with Israel in civilly administering the West Bank.
There are Palestinians who would support such a move. Mudar Zahran, 45, is a Jordanian Palestinian who describes himself leader of the Jordanian Opposition Coalition. He lives in Britain under asylum, having been convicted in 2014 in absentia for “inciting hatred against the regime, sectarian strife and insulting the king as well as security services” to show for it.
Mr. Zahran told the European Parliament in September that what holds back the Palestinian people from enjoying Israel’s economic prosperity is the corruption of the Palestinian Authority and the Hashemite family’s exploitation of Jordan’s Palestinian majority. “Let our people go,” he implored, “both peoples, Jordanians and Israelis.” A true-state solution would let them end the futile refrain of resisting and defending and get on pursuing common interests as they have been for decades in Jerusalem’s Old City.
A Palestinian capital in Amman would have no use for the Palestinian Authority, much less its corrupt, illegitimate and unpopular leaders and their incitement. Would King Abdullah make room for more-representative governance in Jordan? Or might some forward-looking Palestinian emerge, with U.S., Israeli and Arab support, to advance his citizens’ economic prospects and human rights?
And what about Gaza? U.S. officials have said they see that as a separate problem and its resolution as a prerequisite for success. It seems logical that Palestinians there could also enjoy a confederacy option, with either Jordan or Egypt.
The true-state solution would be innovative and elegant—worthy of “Deal of the Century” designation. If it materializes, Barack Obama will ironically deserve some of the credit. His cultivation of Iran’s Ayatollahs stimulated the Arab states’ recent cooperation with Israel. And Donald Trump will have proved instrumental in helping Israel fully attain its potential as a “light unto nations,” for all its cultures and inhabitants—Christians, Druze, Muslims and Jews—and as a beacon of democracy, prosperity, peace and stability in the Middle East and beyond.
Mr. Arbess is CEO of Xerion Investments.
See whole article at Article by Martin Sherman
https://www.newsmax.com/martinsherman/trump-palestinians-israel/2019/02/04/id/901200/?fbclid=IwAR1BZ3F63Dkhd80HPPrzhFTxDSEOBg0Ve9rfgg_Ov16Gw4vp-wGX9O0RaUg
Actually very very good points there. I feel we all have to chose our ground. I am doing some work on campus sites in US and I know this prepares me for Ireland and Spain. This is what I focus on. It is a war situation. The antisemites are waging a war. Jews are involved almost in an amateur manner. The war situation must be recognized and there must be an agreed strategy. I amend what I said above. Do not dismiss the value of Trump. But at the same time decide independently what to do. This Jordan thing could go wrong too many variables. Maybe concentrate on the lefts in universities like Plaut did.
@ Felix Quigley: Good point, Felix. What has America come to when a man whose only “crime” is being a long-time friend and political ally of the President of the United States can be subjected to a gestapo-style arrest? An unelected “deep state” elite class, with the courts and “law-enforcement” agencies as their principal enforcers, has taken power from elected officials in the United States, as they have done for years in Israel.
I have no need or intention of proving anything I said or wrote. Events will prove me right.
@ Ted Belman:
B…s…
Trump cannot even stop his friend and loyal supporter for a generation being raided in a gestapo like operation in dead of night. Trump can no nothing and will do nothing against Islam the enemy of the Jews. What does that mean? It means Jews should not look to Trump for anything.
According to this “plan” of Belman the new “Palestine” will be Gaza, Judea and Samaria (they remain as long as they wish) and Jordan. The poison of antisemitism will be extended. Some plan! Waste of time and even worse!
@ Sebastien Zorn: Again , there is no independent confirmation from any source independent of Israpundit and JOC that these demonstrations have taken place on orders from the Zahran-JOC organization or its leaders. Also, no independent confirmation that this gentlemen really is the leader of a very large Bedouin clan or tribe other than his own assertion to that effect. As for Trump, he is under no obligation to back Mr. Zahran, and I have found nothing on the White House website or Trump’s personal Twitter account that suggests he is backing Mr. Zahran, or even that he has heard of him. I have found no evidence from any source independent of Israpundit that Mr. Trump commands the Jordanian army. Yes it receives American aid, but lots of countries accept American military aid without obeying orders from the UNited States.
All of these beliefs derive exclusively from what Ted has posted on Israpundit, which seems to derive in turn from things Muhdar Zahran or his close associates have told Ted in private. There is no independent confirmation of any of this from other sources. And I think if Mr. Zahran’s claims were true, there would be some independent confirmation from sources like MEMRI or the Institute for Counter-Terrorism, which proved to be reliable and well-informed.
@ Ted Belman: Do you have any confirmation of any of this, Ted, from anyone other than Zahran and the officers of his organization (JOC) with whom you have spoken? So far, I have found no confirmation for any of this in any English language newspapers or websites, whether published in the West or the Arab world, except for Israpundit.. I get the feeling that you simply accept on faith everything Mr. Zahran tells you as “gospel truth,” without seeking external confirmation.
Speaking for myself, I have no faith in anyone except God.
adamdalgliesh Said:
This is fake news. I worked with Mudar about 5 years ago when he was organizing the Jordanian Opposition Coalition.. He drafted a 15 page platform that he sent to me for my input. I made a number of demands and he amended the platform. He then approached the leaders of 13 refugee camps and they all signed on . Subsequently he called me to tell me that the biggest Bedouin clan signed on. I posted the platform on Israpundit.
When Mudar wants the refugees to protest he calls their leadership and tells them to take to the streets. And they do what he asks them to do.
Sebastien Zorn Said:
You are right.
@ adamdalgliesh: Well, one of the speakers at the Jordan Option Conference was a major Bedouin leader and Zahran’s claim to have been able to stop riots or start demonstrations in Jordan appears to be correct from the news — despite the news blackout.
Also, if his organization was so apparent that its details could be revealed in the news, how long do you think it would last?
Lastly, does it matter? With or without an organization, Trump would have to install him and direct the army to obey him for this to work.
@ adamdalgliesh: The main accusation against Zahran is that he has no organization inside Jordan and no significant support there. This is an allegation that is impossible, from the public record, to either prove or disprove. Jordan does not have complete freedom of the press, and so what people can write about oppositionist groups inside the country, directed to people outside, is extremely limited. Zahran can point to the fact that Jordanian newspapers have published several articles over the years denouncing him, and that he has been indicted in absentia for treason, as evidence that the Jordanian government considers him a threat.
@ Bear Klein:
I wouldn’t call it a trial balloon.. Instead I would deduce that the central players are in agreement on the Plan and are now introducing it and Mudar to the elite (WSJ and Oxford Union) as a prelude to a wider dissemination.
Meanwhile Trump and Israel continue to squeeze the PA financially and politically. The latest is that they have been barred from activities in eastern Jerusalem. In addition, the Europeans observers have been thrown out of Hebron. So even the Europeans are having their wings clipped.
No doubt that Arbess almost certainly followed Ted’s writings on the subject. A huge scoop for the project. It looks more and more hopeful. And all very lately and suddenly, as the wide-ranging threads and rumours are compressing into the carefully designed outcome
Just one thing….. Arbess said that Britain “inherited” Palestine. This implies ownership, which was most certainly NOT the case. Britain inherited NOTHING. It was granted a “Trusteeship” to safely pilot the declared Jewish Homeland towards a viable State. ,Which it did NOT do. Instead, it turned completely Arabophile and hindered and opposed Jews at every turn . I directly blame Britain’s policy in Palestine, not only for blocking much Jewish progress towards a Jewish State, but for the slaughter of as many as millions of Jews whom, trying to escape the Nazis, they prevented from coming into Palestine, where their fellow Jews were trying to build a Jewish State in line with the Mandate terms.
@ Ted Belman:
So if your deduction or Mudar’s of what happen would mean that this could be a trial balloon (provided it is accurate).
That your concepts are being kicked around perhaps is certainly interesting!
@ adamdalgliesh:
If you read this article by Arbess and my article Trump’s Deal of the Century, yo0u will see that Arbess simply followed my work almost paragraph by paragraph.. I hear that the administration were instrumental in getting this article written and published at the WSJ.. In addition Mudar just gave an 8 minute talk at Oxford University as a prelude to a debate that he took part in. I will be posting the video in a few days. Evidently the establishment in Britain was instrumental in getting Oxford to invite him.
Recall that both Arbess and I referred to Mudar’s address to members of the European Union. recently held.
Need I say more.
So far, my searches of USG web sites, including the White House website, private nonprofit websites that monitor U.S. foreign policy, ssuch as the CFR website, and President Trump’s twitter account have failed to turn up any references to Mudar Zahran and the JOC. However, I don’t know how to conduct a truly exhaustive computer search of any of these sites, and I know from experience that using the very simple search techniques such as googling, which is all I know how to use, often miss things. If any of our readers have spotted a reference to Mudar Zahran by President Trump or some official in his administration, or a reference to him on a USG web site, please let me know. I have also found few references to Jordan of any kind on these web sites and on Trump’s Twitter account. A bit mysterious.
There is no question that enlisting Daniel J. Arbess as a supporter is a major political coup for Zahran. He is a major player in the petrochemical industry and has been for decades. He is also described as a lifetime member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the Atlantic Council as well. This gives him a lot of political clout. What I don’t know about him at this point is whether he is also a donor to Trump’s campaigns. If so, he could give Zahran an in in the Trump administration.
Wikipedia’s article about Zahran. Some of it is accurate. Some of it consists of very dubious accusations. But bear in mind–only an influential politician makes influential and well known enemies and becomes a magnet for accusations in the press. This does not necessarily discredit Zahran. Only demonstrates that he is a heavy hitter, at least in Israeli politics.
The article from Mideasteye identified one of the protest leaders as Fakher Daas. I looked him up and found he has a twitter page. He tweets only in Arabic, which I can’t read. However, Microsoft provides rough translations of parts of some of them. Unfortunately.the translations of some of Daas’s tweets raise concerns. In one, he refers to Israel as ” the Zionist entity.” In another he tweets this:
Raises concerns that the demonstrators may be anti-Israel as well as anti-Abdullah.
@ Ted Belman: Are you permitted to name your strong Zionist friend? I might want to tweet him for more background about Arbess, etc.
@ adamdalgliesh:
As it turns out, Arbess and I have a mutual friend who is a very strong Zionist and activist in Israel. He got Arbess to look into the Jordan Option and referred him to Israpundit. Arbess obviously studied what I had written and bought in to it. He them submitted his article to WSJ. WSJ demanded changes. After a few revisions, they published it.
Yes, we are very excited they did so. The Jordan Option is now mainstream.
Some important background information about Daniel J. Arbess, the author of this article, from Wikipedia.
He is clearly an influential ‘heavy hitter” in the financial world and in financial journalism. Getting his support is certainly an important coup for the JOC.
What I don’t know at this point is what influence he has with the Trump administration and within Jordan.