By Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
Irrespective of the final outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it should serve as a wake-up call for Israeli and Western policy-makers and molders of public opinion.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exposed the flawed nature of certain assumptions, which have impacted the worldview of the Western establishment – but not the worldview of most of the world – while attempting to induce/coerce Israel into adopting these assumptions.
For example:
*The illusion that most of the world subscribes to the Western worldview of a new world (and new Middle East) order, which is supposedly more stable, predictable, tolerant and trending toward peaceful-coexistence, focusing on butter rather than guns;
*The ostensible end to the era of major wars and massive ground force invasions;
*The self-destruct notion that a military posture of deterrence can be effectively-replaced by peace accords, security guarantees and generous financial and diplomatic packages. Thus, the seeds of the current predicament of Ukraine were planted in the reckless December 1994 Budapest security assurances, which were extended to Ukraine by the USA, Britain and Russia in return for Ukraine’s surrender of its most-deterring nuclear stockpile (3rd largest in the world). In 2022, these assurances are exposed in their futility.
*Ignoring the tenuous, unreliable, unpredictable, non-committal and open-ended nature of all security guarantees, even article 5 of the NATO Charter, which is supposed to be the tightest security commitment. But, article 5 states that all NATO members shall assist an attacked member “as [they] deem necessary, including the use of armed force….” As they deem necessary….
*The delusion that peace and security agreements are more important (for national security) than military capabilities and geography/topography-driven posture of deterrence. This delusion ignores the fact that while peace accords and security guarantees are tenuous, topographic dominance (e.g., the Golan Heights and the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria) and geographic depth are everlasting.
*Overlooking the fact that a gradual reduction of defense budget is interpreted by most of the globe as erosion of deterrence in a stormy world (and volatile Middle East), undermining stability and crippling national security, and therefore inducing terrorism and wars;
*The presumed superiority of the diplomatic option as a more effective negotiation tool than the military option in settling conflicts with rogue regimes, which have systematically revealed themselves as bad-faith negotiators (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs since assuming power in February, 1979);
*The alleged subordination of national ideologies and strategic visions to a cosmopolitan/universal peaceful-coexistence state of mind;
*Preferring the speculative assessments of the future track records of rogue regimes over their realistic historical track record, which highlights the centrality of rogue history in shaping their radical national vision, policy-making, school curriculum, religious sermons and media.
*The illusion that rogue conduct (e.g., subversion, terrorism and wars) is despair-driven, rather than ideology-driven.
Western policy makers have attempted to induce/coerce Israel into a withdrawal from the topographically dominant mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – in return for a peace accord and security guarantees. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the false sense of security, which is generated by security guarantees, which replace geographic depth and dominant topography in the highly volatile, violent, intolerant and unpredictable Middle East. The global experience has reaffirmed the centrality of the military-driven posture of deterrence in the shaping of national security.
Moreover, unlike Ukraine (the 2nd largest European country), Israel’s lack of geographic depth (a 7-15 miles sliver from the Mediterranean to the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria) provides for an extremely small margin of error. Thus, if the 1973 surprise Arab military offensive were launched against a pre-1967 Israel (without the dominant topography of the Golan Heights and Judea and Samaria and the strategic depth of the Sinai Peninsula), the Arabs would be able to annihilate the Jewish State.
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@Ted Belman
The truth is that normally in geopolitics whoever has the biggest fist wins.
Cunning and determination don’t hurt. either.
I already mentioned that recent events prove that the West cannot be trusted for sure.
A very long history.
Boden in 1997
Joe Boden in 1997 sees NATO as setting a trap for Russia and the true response is how evil is this America in our only earth.
https://youtu.be/2wXjC4a_Kno
@Michael S
I tend to agree with you that they are real American-sponsored labs because for many decades the US favorite countries for testing new vaccines and medications were the USSR/RF and India.
So when I read recently that some stuff from the labs was tested on the Ukrainian soldiers it didn’t sound shockingly new too me.
@Michael
I wish I could support this statement.
I am very familiar with Dr. Hatfill’s history and hold a great deal of respect for him. That being said, I do have some serious concerns about his statements here. The fact remains that the press is calling for confidential documentations that should, if Hatfill’s assertion is correct, not be confidential. His claim that these bio-hazards can be flushed down the sink is highly alarming and simply untrue. Medical schools do not simply flush samples of biologically hazardous material down the drain, nor do research labs, especially when dealing with outbreak strains – that is the second craziest damned thing I have heard on this topic yet.
Among the bugs being claimed to be found by the Russians is bug that causes Tularemia, rabbit fever, which is highly lethal and can exist in soil and water for weeks. Ebola which the Russians also claim wad recovered is very unstable, but would never be disposed thru any sink. It entails a very costly and careful process, double bagged in biohazard bags, autoclaved at excessive temps, carefully handled by certified personel and techniques. Perhaps he is unaware of these claims or is not referencing them, but this is true with any outbreak or any biological material. Any hospital lab tech knows this.
He blames Rubio for “not being able to ask a logical, direct question” as an excuse to ignore Nuland’s statement that there are biomedical research materials that the US is greatly concerned about falling into the hands of the Russians. He initially dodges the question about Nuland entirely by falling back to the criticism of the press and later states her comments were only reflective of her being nervous(what????) and goes on to suggest it was because she was a terrible spokesman(what????)…this sounds to be a highly disingenuous explanation, with all due respect to Hatfield. All of this honestly sounds like a circle the wagons moment, in my opinion.
The other thing I notice is that he only wants to attack the press and then the Russians and then Rubio, which could be interpreted as a desire to deflect. The way he closed with his statement that “we are jumping all over the place here” after being questioned about the Chinese bioweapon program was also a bit unsettling as it struck me as a bit too defensive. Finally, the claim that there are only Biosafety Level 1 & 2 in Ukraine contradicts now deleted articles from the web dating back to 2010:
https://defconnews.com/2022/03/10/deleted-web-pages-show-obama-led-an-effort-to-build-a-ukraine-based-biolab-handling-especially-dangerous-pathogens/
Honestly, I am much more uncomfortable with this topic now than I was before Hatfill spoke on it, something that seems to occur every time a member, or former member, of the US govt speaks on this very concerning topic.
Peloni,
Steven Hatfill gives a plausible explanation of the “weapons lab” kerfuffle:
https://rumble.com/vx44wp-steven-hatfill-on-the-biolabs-in-ukraine.html
@Michael
Yes, that wasn’t wasted on me either.
The sharp inconsistencies by the US/Ukrainian explanations are mounting and the Russians have not even released their data yet . Tucker has done a good job asking the right questions, and so too has Dilyana Gaytandzhieva (this bold reporter has an incredibly difficult name to remember).
The backdrop of the pandemic will hopefully add to the public’s easy interest in this matter. The curiously similar distractions and unravelling tales being told by the US strike an eerily similar resemblance to those previously employed in distracting from the US role in the Chinese lab “leak”.
I honestly thought this was more of the cadavers pulling the drape over themselves, but the US has fully substantiated my interest.
As you note
I hope not much more.
Hi, Peloni. You said,
Hon. Victoria Nuland, while nervously twirling her pen, said The Ukrainians were concerned about the “research materials” falling into the hands of the Russians, should they approach. She said, in other words, that those “research materials” were dangerous, i.e. weapons.
How much more of this Biden BS are we supposed to put up with?
I’m convinced that the labs are real (a Biden Administration spokesman said as much), and that Zelensky is a bald-faced liar.
Let him defend his own “adequate country”.
cf. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-we-have-right-know-this
Ettinger makes the following very important point,
Bottom line is that agreements and guarantees can not be relied on. They are used as a means to force certain concessions as desired by the Great Powers..
Why is no one commenting on this truth?
From Zelensky:
There does seem to be a great deal of early defensive statements being made. They really do need to release all the restricted documents. It might also be good to hear why they found it important to deny the labs were real right after they deleted all the documents relating to the labs from the embassy website.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-who-says-it-advised-ukraine-destroy-pathogens-health-labs-prevent-2022-03-11/
@Inna1
The context of the recent faked pandemic that came from a gain of function research from a US-funded Chinese lab is the obvious answer to this question, why. Still, it is not the only answer. If Ebola was discovered in a biosafety 3 lab, or Tularemia were found in a biosafety 1 or 2 lab, these would be very concerning revelations. The claims that there were routine outbreaks surrounding the labs, if verifiably true, it would also be concerning.
Your comment here does provide a fair context to consider, however, as people become horrified over the labs in Ukraine. Every medical school and most universities have a biolab, so the bio-safety level is very important and offers further context to what could or should be conducted there. As I noted earlier today, there are different bio-safety levels. As I recall, there are around 60 biosafety level 4 labs in the world with a quarter of them in the US and multiples in many cities. We do not yet know the biosafety level of the labs in Ukraine. The initial labs setup by Obama in 2005 were to be Level 3, but this is all that I have found on this point thus far.
The Russians are calling for a Security Council hearing on their findings at the US biolabs in Ukraine, and we will see what they have to show tomorrow, but there are a good many things that might be displayed by the Russians. Unfortunately, the Russians and the Americans each have a reason to push a false narrative, and there will likely never be any certainty provided regarding what the Russians reveal tomorrow.
Dr. Malone has made a career working with DTRA and DARPA, and he comes from a family in the military defense contract industry. He wrote a lengthy article sharing some insight as well as a testimony from the a member of the DOD regarding the Biolabs. The article is informative though not decisive in its conclusions. Here is the link:
https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/ukraine-biolab-watchtower?s=r
I see that IGNORANCE and Pejorative Dispute is arguing about everything with everybody, The laugh here is that IGNORANCE displays ignorance by disputing about Russia with a genuine extremely erudite Russian; born and raised there, who knows all about it, but of course, IGNORANCE degrades and denigrates this real knowledge. “Ignoramus” sounds more realistic.
From the impossible to the unreal….. and further. As Levinsky used to say..
“Ich erd dus erst”…..!!
I recall Levinsky, talking about the Wolfe Family at a Wedding…”Benny Mikey, Ikey, and Jakie: Volf”… “end kud dem volves eet”..”de fella vat vanted to keep de volves avay frum his door..
.He ment DEM VOLVES”…..!!.Levinsky was from a shtetl.
@inna1
No, in fact, I keep saying that Russia has a lot of land and resources and relatively few people for a country this huge which causes the West to nurse the hope of taking the place over.
That’s the reason the West has kept attacking it for the last 300 years, and they will not rest until they either break it up and take over all that land and resources or, somehow, Russia manages to finally cause the West so much damage out of sheer desperation that it will destroy that hope forever (and, hopefully, not the Earth together with it).
I think you should be a little bit more grateful to your former country because if it didn’t defeat Hitler’s armies, there wouldn’t be any Jews left in Europe and, possibly, in the world.
I am not at all saying the Soviets had in mind fighting to save Jews, the “Jewish” war was Hitler’s fantasy but they’ve done more than anybody else to defeat him and his hordes and at a much greater sacrifice.
Too bad it prevented them from constructing beautiful buildings, etc.
I understand that a lot of Soviet “federal” money went to support the other 14 republics.
For a lot of people, I guess, ubi bene ibi patria – (roughly ) where the life is good, there is my fatherland).
@Reader: “it is all about the land and resources”… You think that Russia does not have enough land and resources? I am from Russia. There is plenty of land and resources. When you crossed the Russian – Ukrainian border you got very surprised. After complete poverty and rickety houses, you entered a completely different world with nice accurate villages, contemporary towns, and modern cities. Russia is almost only Moscow and St. Petersburg. Russians outside these big capitals – current and former – are poor. From St. Petersburg, people like to go shopping in Finland, because the products there are better and cheaper. With all Russian land and resources, it has never had a developed economy. Russia depends only on its oil. Now about the bio labs. Bioweapon labs are in all developed Western countries. We know about ours in Wuhan, other labs are in France, Germany, etc. My mother was working in such a lab in Russia during WWII and after. Russia has many such labs, so why have such excitement? Russia is an aggressor and has always been, and it’s not surprising that Ukraine tried to be as prepared for the potential war as possible. Many of my relatives were killed in Ukraine during WWII by Ukrainians, I am not biased, but war is war, and unprovoked invasion is an invasion. People are using a fake argument about so-called “Nazis” in Donetsk and Lugansk. Yes, the people of these areas have suffered since 1914. There are different opinions about who initiated attacks on innocent civilians. Several times UN offered to send an independent commission to the region – Putin refused. Why? Here is a very informative article: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/12/05/why-care-about-ukraine-and-the-budapest-memorandum/ “In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the United States, Russia, and Britain committed “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and “to refrain from the threat or use of force” against the country. Those assurances played a key role in persuading the Ukrainian government in Kyiv to give up what amounted to the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, consisting of some 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads… Unfortunately, Russia has broken virtually all the commitments it undertook in that document. It used military force to seize, and then illegally annex, Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in early 2014. Russian and Russian proxy forces have waged war for more than five years in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas, claiming more than 13,000 lives and driving some two million people from their homes…” So, according to international law Russia is a criminal. The destruction of Ukrainian cities and deaths on both sides are terrible… Anyone who tries saying otherwise is wrong. The USA and Europe are not really helping Ukraine, it seems that this invasion is a part of a global plan – World Reset 2030. The US, thanks to Biden, now is not producing enough oil. The sanctions against Russia will destroy not only Russia but the world economy. But all of these factors should not enforce Ukraine to surrender to this P monster.
Reader agreed. But also study still more Ukraine on Fire. In short THEY make choices and they KNEW that there were deep division in Yugoslavia. They study this Ukraine is ultra division and look at the fuss over the Uighers…so Israel…they will be studying all division
@Felix
The biolabs are not all the same. They are structured on a basis of four different levels with 3&4 being the more serious labs. The dozen or so labs in Ukraine are never described by their biosafety level, which is curious. I know that at least some are level 3 because this is what Obama helped to build on the foundation of the labs taken from the Soviets, but I have yet to hear that there are any biosafety lab level 4, to which the msot concerning of bugs are restricted. The distinctions between the Biosafety level rating is quite important due to measures of security. Also, prevention of bacterial/viral escape are not the same between the biosafety levels. This is especially if Russia’s claims are true. Russia has claimed that they have found ebola in some of these labs. That is a red flag fro Level 4. They have also found tularemia (Rabbit Fever), which is only Level 3, as I recall, and plague which is only biosafety Level 2.
There is plenty of reason to disbelieve the claims of either the US or Russia on the truth of what was in these labs. If Russia truly has proof of what they are currently claiming with regards to the biolabs, they should release it. They did release some documents 2 days ago, but it was not proof of anything they were claiming, and they have said they will share their proof, but have yet to do so. Similarly, the US should declassify the documents associated with these labs immediately – if the US has no military biological program, as Assistant Secretary at the US Department of Health Kadlec has claimed, there should be no reason the documents relating to these labs should be restricted.
Here is Kadlec claiming there is no US military
https://rumble.com/vwycxs-assistant-secretary-at-the-us-department-of-health-denies-existance-of-biol.html
We just need both sides to clearly release these details to honestly assess the truth which neither side appears to be comfortable in releasing, which is also a curios point to consider.
AMERICA HAS GERM LABS IN UKRAINE
Sen. Marco Rubio: Does Ukraine have chemical or biological weapons?
Victoria Nuland: Ukraine has biological research facilities which, in fact, we’re now quite concerned Russian troops FOLLOWS BLAH BLAH BLAH
they’re Nazis https://t.co/i8mh7JJXZC
cont…Russian forces may be seeking to gain control of, so we are working with the Ukrainians on how we can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces should they approach.
The author’s last couple of paragraphs are correct but his whole argument is delusional because he doesn’t understand what is really going on.
There are two countries in the world which are slated to be destroyed by the so-called Western Civilization – Israel and Russia for totally different real and ostensible reasons.
The real reason that Israel is slated for destruction (together with the Jews) is because Israel’s continued existence confirms the truth of the Hebrew prophecy and proves both Christianity and Islam wrong, and this cannot be tolerated.
However, the attacks on Israel are being justified by the tiny Israel’s alleged “intolerable” occupation of the “native” Arab lands, the “plight” of the millions of the “Palestinian refugees abused by Israel” who desperately need the 24-th or the 25-th Arab state in Judea and Samaria, for justice to be served and for peace to reign, etc.
The fight is presented as a fight only about the territory, not about anything spiritual or religious.
The real reason that Russia is slated for destruction (together with most of its population) is because the PTB (whoever they are) want its land which encompasses most of the continent (and once they get that, they’ll take care of China and the rest of the East) – this will permit them to rule the whole world unopposed (or so they think).
However, the attacks on Russia never include the real reasons.
The attacks on Russia are always couched in terms of freedom, liberty, equality,the freedom of religion, the fight for human rights against a bloody dictatorship which seeks to enslave the whole world (under czars, communists, oligarchs, or whoever).
The one about the czars is especially funny because the czars weren’t even Russian, they were the closest relatives of the British royal family (they actually WERE a part of the British royal family).
The fight is presented as a noble, spiritual fight of the free world against evil totalitarianism while in reality it is all about the land and resources.
Like I already mentioned, what scares me is the possibility of the Western world doing to Israel what they are now doing to Russia (to force it to get off the Golan, for example, or something even worse than that).
Well said.