Testing Western Resolve in Ukraine and Taiwan
by Soeren Kern , GATESTONE INSTITUTE • January 21, 2022
- “Putin’s apparent indifference towards Western warnings is understandable. He has been hearing the same empty promises of decisive action, typically accompanied by expressions of grave concern, ever since the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008…. Putin’s recent list of security demands makes clear that he seeks to reassert Russian domination throughout the post-Soviet space. This will enhance Russia’s claims to superpower status while exposing the inability of the Western powers to keep their promises. ” — Tinatin Khidasheli, former defense minister of Georgia.
- “For Beijing, success would translate into a commanding strategic position in Asia, undermining the security of Japan and South Korea, and allowing China to project power into the Western Pacific…. For the American alliance, a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be a devastating blow. At a stroke, the United States would lose its status as the pre-eminent power in Asia, according to most U.S. and regional military experts. If America were unwilling or unable to defend Taiwan, its network of allies in the Asia-Pacific — including Tokyo, Seoul and Canberra — would overnight be far more vulnerable to military and economic coercion from China.” — David Lague and Maryanne Murray, “The Battle for Taiwan,” Reuters.
- “Vladimir Putin has invaded two democratic neighbors in just over a decade. Letting him do it a third time would set the global system back decades. Appeasement does not work any better now than it worked for Neville Chamberlain in the late 1930s. China will be watching U.S. support to Ukraine, and it will inform their calculus regarding Taiwan.” Retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander at NATO, in an interview with the New York Times.
- “I strongly urge President Biden not to make concessions at the expense of our strategic partner Ukraine in response to the Putin regime’s provocative military buildup. This would not only fail to de-escalate tensions, it would also embolden Vladimir Putin and his fellow autocrats by demonstrating the United States will surrender in the face of saber-rattling. Particularly in the aftermath of the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Nord Stream 2 capitulation, U.S. credibility from Kyiv to Taipei cannot withstand another blow of this nature.” — U.S. Representative Mike McCaul of Texas, the ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
- “Ukraine and Taiwan both show how easily U.S. weakness — or even the mere perception of weakness — could unravel the strained networks and alliances that support the American world order and usher in a new era of global conflict and instability…. The Putins and Xis of the world are probing for those weaknesses, watching the results, and calculating their next move.” —Michael Schuman.
Many observers agree that China is closely watching the U.S. response to Russia’s activities in Ukraine, and that the challenges posed by Russia and China are a test of American credibility. A failure to deter Russia and China would deal a potentially crushing blow to the post-World War II liberal international order. Pictured: Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 5, 2019. (Image source: kremlin.ru)<
>
<
>
As Russia continues its troop build-up along the border with Ukraine, China has markedly increased its military activity near Taiwan. The twin geopolitical flashpoints, separated by 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles), are raising concerns that Russia and China could coordinate or conduct concurrent military offensives that the United States and its allies may find it difficult to stop.
A failure to deter Russia and China — deterrence, especially military pre-positioning near the area under threat, is the least costly way to avoid war — would deal a potentially crushing blow to the post-World War II liberal international order. That system, whose principles and norms — including adherence to the rule of law, respect for human rights and the promotion of liberal democracy, as well as preserving the sanctity of territorial sovereignty and existing boundaries — has regulated the conduct of international relations for nearly 80 years.
<
>
<
>
@Ted. Thanks for the reminder, Ted. Don’t know how I missed it.
@Adam
This article is still here, is it not?
I notice that this article has disappeared from Israpundit’s list of articles since it was published here. Why, Ted?
If Russia invades Ukraine. NATO will issue sanctions. Ukraine is on its own. The west will give them some additional weapons but they will not go to war for Ukraine.
Soren Kern’s article in the Gatestone Institute publication is an excellent digest of expert opinion about the Russian-Chinese de facto alliance’s challenge to U.S. power.
It is difficult to know what will happen if Russia re-annexes Ukraine and/or China re-annexes Taiwan. It will be difficult for the U.S. not to react to such developments in a forceful way without losing face. And the “deep state” of the u.S., like those of all great powers, is not willing to accept their country’s loss face, and the inevitable loss of prestige and power that must result.
Tough economic sanctions are a possible option for the USG in response to either Russian or Chinese aggressive actions. But the u.S. economy is so intertwined with that of China that serious U.S. sanctions against China could wreck the very fragile U.S. economy.
I can’t see any desireable options for the U.S. in all of this. Also no desirable options for Western Europe.If the Western countries do nothing while Russia and China expand their spheres of influence, the Western powers will suffer very severe economic consequences. If they attempt to counter and resist Russian and Chinese expansion, there may be war.
I am surprised that you published this article.
Russia and the NATO bloc are moving in the direction of war. Most people don’t realize just how perilous the situation is.
There is a sense of World War I deja-vu all over again. Then as now, the newspapers and the politicians were mainly focused on domestic politics and sensational crime stories, and barely noticed how their governments were inching towards war with each other. Then Austria declared war of Serbia, Germany declared war on Russia and invaded Belgium and France, and Britain declared war on Germany, all within the space of a few days.
Putin has issued ultimatums demanding essentially that nATO withdraw all of its troops from eastern Europe and recognize this entire region, all the countries that were once Soviet satellites or Soviet territory, as a Russian sphere of influence. He has declared that Ukraine is rightfully Russian territory, as are the three Baltic states. Some of these assertions were contained in a formal ultimatum delivered to the NATO headquarters in Belgium a few weeks ago. The arguments justifying the ultimatum and proclaiming Russia’s aims in Eastern Europe were explain in an essay of more than 5,000 words that Putin published in Russian newspapers, around the same time he presented his ultimatum.
The biden administration and other Western governments have made it clear that they are planning to respond only with economic sanctions, albeit “crippling” ones, if Russia invades Ukraine. However, Britain has begun to send weapons and a small “training mission” of soldiers to the Ukraine. Biden has asked Congress to appropriate 200 million in military aid to the Ukraine, and the MSM reports Congress will likely pass the appropriation quickly. Only Rand Paul seems strongly opposed.
Sweden, of all countries, has massed soldiers and an an armda of naval ships near Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave. According to military news sites, Sweden has a very formidable military, although this fact is little known.
Both Sweden and Finaland are considering requesting NATO membership.
The US. has declared Russia’s demand that NATO permanently for swear granting NATO membership to Ukraine.
Although the Biden administration so far has focused on “white supremacists” and “white priivilege” as the enemy, not Russia and China,it is now clear that Biden and his Secretary of State, Blinken, don’t want to seem weak if Russia and/or China make aggressive moves. In addition, his domestic agenda is going so badly that Biden and his handlers might decide that a war might be the best way to distract people from the administration’s domestic failures and cause the public to rally around the President out of patriotic feeling. This happened to some extent during the BushI and Bush II administrations=at least at first.
All aound, the situation doesn’t look good.