technopeasant
Based on the polls that came in yesterday and Trump’s overall momentum over the past 4 days, political prognosticators (and myself) have come to these conclusions as we presently stand with respect to Trump and where he stands today in the electoral college:
Trump will win all of the Romney 2012 states including NC———-206
Florida (2 polls show DT ahead)———————————————-29
Ohio (2 polls show DT ahead)————————————————18
Iowa (DT has had the lead consistently)————————————6
NV (Monmouth poll yesterday)————————————————6
Maine district #2( 2 polls show DT ahead)———————————1
Total——————————————————————————-266
Thus DT is in a position to win the presidency if he can win only one of these swing states:
Virginia (13)
NH (4)
CO (9)
NM (5)
PA (20)
Wisc (10)
Mich (16)
The Donald Trump surge continues:
LA Times daily tracking poll:
Trump: 47.2% (+0.5)
Clinton: 41.3 (-0.7)
—————————————————————————————–
DT+ 5.9
47.2 % for Trump represents his 2nd highest level of support ever, next to 47.4% posted on July 28, the final day of the Democratic convention.
———————————————————————————————-
Major demographic shift in margins over the past four days of polling:
Demographic—————-Sept 11————-Sept 15——–Diff———-
Overall———————-HC+1.4————DT+5.9———DT+7.3
Males———————–DT+9.2————DT+22.5——-DT+13.3
18-34———————–HC+5.6————DT+9.8——–DT+15.4
35-64———————-HC+1.1————-DT+5.4——–DT+6.5
A/A————————-HC+87.3———–HC+56.1——HC(-31.2)
High school————–DT+3.8————-DT+17.1——DT+13.3
< $35K/yr.-----------------HC+18.1----------HC+10.0------HC(-8.1) >$75K/yr.—————–HC+1.2————DT+9.3——–DT+10.5
Focusing on the A/A vote: on Sept 11 HC commanded 90.4% and 3.1% for Trump. Today it’s 75.3% for HC and 19.2% for Trump after 4 days of polling.
Finally this has been mainly a male driven surge. HC’s margin of support among females over Trump only decreased by 0.8 points (11.2 to 10.4) over the past 4 days.
CBS/NYT poll:
National poll:
Trump: 42%
Clinton: 42%
Johnson: 8%
Stein: 4%
Rasmussen national weekly poll:
Trump: 42% (+3)
Clinton: 40% (-3)
Johnson: 7% (-2)
Stein: 2% (0)
Other: 2%
Und: 7%
—————————————————————————————-
Sept 12-13
1000 likely voters
Brackets last week
a six point swing in one week
These numbers will get even better as the events of the last few days are fully taken into account in the polls in the next few days.
There are two battleground counties in Virginia. Loudon County and Henrico County.
Henrico is located in the 7th congressional district – the same district that overthrew Eric Cantor for Dave Brat two years ago with overwhelming voter turnout.
The 7th district is the only district large enough and populous enough to counter-balance Loudon County and Norther Virginia.
Great efforts are being made as we speak to turn out voters in the 7th district for Trump.
Given the enthusiasm gap, we have a very good chance of turning Virginia red again.
Turn out the vote in Henrico – turn out the vote in the 7th – win Virginia – win the Presidency!
That’s how elections are won here.
Gotta go knock on doors and get out the vote this morning so wee ya’ll later!
Technocrat said Trump can win if he wins one of the following swing states (which is a very huge if). Plus he MUST hold the other swing states he just now is ever so slightly ahead it should be stated. There is a path or two but it is currently an if.
The first debate will be highly influential in making up the mind of the undecided or not too sold voters in currently in one camp or another. That said more Trump voters are more solidly behind him than Hillary voters (previously Bernie campers)
Minnesota could also have been included in this list. Trump around 5 points behind with limited polling there. A bit of stretch but is so New Mexico, VA and PA.