An Interview on the Egyptian Revolt: I’m Worried That Others Aren’t Worried
By Rarry Rubin, GLORIA
1) How do you judge the Egyptian protests?
It is tempting to see this as a revolution that will bring down the regime. But Egypt is not Tunisia. And while the demonstrations are passionate it is not clear that the numbers of participants are huge. If the elite and the army hold together they could well prevail, perhaps by removing Mubarak to save the regime. We should be cautious in drawing conclusions.
2) Do you see the threat of an Islamist takeover by the Ikhwan?
So far the uprising has not been led by the Muslim Brotherhood. But it is the only large organized opposition group. It is hard to see how it would not be the leading force after a while. The leadership would have to decide that it is facing a revolutionary situation and that this is the moment for an all-out effort. But if it does so and fails there will be a terrible repression and the group will be crushed. It appears that the Brotherhood is joining the protests but has not made its basic decision yet. In the longer term if the regime is completely overthrown I do believe the Brotherhood will emerge as the leader and perhaps the ruler of the country.
3) Do you see any chances that Egypt will witness the same model of Iran of 1979, the democratic protests followed by an Islamist rule?
Absolutely yes. On one hand, so far they lack a charismatic leader. On the other hand, alternative non-Islamist leadership is probably weaker than it was in Iran. Remember also that the Iranian revolution went on for almost a year, with the Islamists emerging as leaders only after five or six months. Many experts predicted that moderate democrats would emerge as rulers and said an Islamist regime was impossible but that isn’t what happened. I very much hope I am wrong.
4) How the Arab status quo can be reformed and changed without letting the Jihadist fanatics take power? Is it possible to have democracy and liberalism?
One would need strong leaders, strong organizations, an ability to repress opposition, a clear program, and unity, among other things. None of this is present on the moderate democratic side. Again, I wish it was otherwise. More than any other country, reformers–though not all of them–have believed they can work with and then manipulate the Islamists. That seems like a mistake.
The chances for democracy and liberalism are different in every country. Tunisia has a good chance because there is a strong middle class and a weak Islamist movement. But in Egypt look at the numbers in the latest Pew poll.
In Egypt, 30 percent like Hizballah (66 percent don’t). 49 percent are favorable toward Hamas (48 percent are negative); and 20 percent smile (72 percent frown) at al-Qaida. Roughly speaking, one-fifth of Egyptians applaud the most extreme Islamist terrorist group, while around one-third back revolutionary Islamists abroad. This doesn’t tell us what proportion of Egyptians want an Islamist government at home, but it is an indicator.
In Egypt, 82 percent want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77 percent would like to see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; and 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.
Asked if they supported “modernizers” or “Islamists” only 27 percent said modernizers while 59 percent said Islamists:
Is this meaningless? Last December 20 I wrote that these “horrifying figures in Egypt…one day might be cited to explain an Islamist revolution there….What this analysis also shows is that a future Islamist revolution in Egypt and Jordan is quite possible.
5) What kind of threat the Muslim Brotherhood network pose to Israel and the Western democracies?
In power? A huge threat: renewed warfare, overwhelming anti-Americanism, efforts to spread revolution to other moderate states, a potential alignment with Iran and Syria (though that might not happen), incredible damage to Western interests. In short, a real disaster. What shocks me is that Western media and experts seem so carried away by this movement they are only considering a best-case outcome. As I suggested, I would prefer things were otherwise but I am deeply worried and one of the things I’m worried about is that others don’t seem to be worried.
ShL,
I think you are entirely correct in your premises and general timetable as stated in your comment here. My assumption is that the USA under Obama will under no circumstances mount a direct military attack against Iran for purposes of destroying that country’s nuclear research and uranium enrichment facilities. Perhaps my assumptions are incorrect. But future actions can only be predicted on the basis of past actions. Tricks such as the Stuxnet virus work only once. That may delay for only a couple of years the fatal day, after which Iran is a nuclear armed state which itself must then be pre-emptied with nuclear weapons.
If the case of Egypt, Israel’s defensive policy for more than 30 years has been based on an assumption that the governments first of Anwar Sadat and that of his successor, Hosni Mubarak would be able to keep the Ilkwan (Moslem Brotherhood) under control in order to maintain the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, without which, Israel could never have retreated from the Sinai peninsula. The odds are growing that Mubarak’s government will be destroyed, either quickly, with the same kind of street mobs that destroyed the regimes of the Hashemite king of Iraq in 1958, the Pahlavi monarchy of Iran in 1979, the communist regime of Nicolai and Elena Ceaucescu in 1989, or going back in history, the French revolution in 1789 and the Russian revolutions in 1979. Street revolutions begin in the name of democracy, but almost instantly are hijacked by tightly controlled totalitarian professional revolutionaries. As George Orwell once wrote, no such group seizes power in order to make a revolution; they make a revolution in order to seize power.
If the Mubarak regime collapses, no democratic regime will follow. In fact, it will be the Ilkwan, and the new regime will be simultaneously totalitarian, islamofascist, and it will be a powerful and dangerous enemy of Israel.
Before anything such as that can occur, Israel must take back control of the Sinai, at least as far west as the Mitla pass, but preferably right up to the Suez Canal, which is defendable. Will this mean war? Obviously. But the price to be paid for such a war is nothing in comparison to the death and destruction that will have to be endured by Israel if they are compelled to fight simultaneously against Iran and its proxy states to the east and against an Ilkwan-controlled Egypt and its proxy Hamas in Gaza.
Nobody in the Israeli government has the time to dither over all these considerations, and there no longer is any outside deus ex machina in Washington that Israel can depend on.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
There will never be a solution for the conflict between the islamic and Jewish people in Eretz Israel without the utter defeat of one of the two sides. For normal thinking folk it should be clear that maintaining the salame process has reached its end. We have run out of “peace fodder” and that is that.
What remains to be decided is when the final showdown will take place.
Presently and until Islam fully controls Egypt and Jordan, added to Lebannon and Gaza already in their hands, we seem to have window of opportunity. Once Iran has nuclear devices it would be too late.
That means that a resolution must take place within the next two years.
There is nothing to negotiate about with Islam. Either them or us.
AND of course there will be casualties, a regretful but unavoidable result of the Oslo intentional harm inflicted upon all of us.
Chazak!
I didn’t say it would easy only that it’s necessary and ultimately unavoidable. his cost in lives today will be far less than in the future, when Egypt get their nukes, also inevitable.
Saving our lives is the point, isn’t it. Egyptian Lives who gives a shit? In Israel we are all arm chair generals where many of us have been in combat and seen what Wars are really about. Sometimes sacrificing a few lives to save many is the right thing to do. Lives of individuals mean nothing in defense of the Jewish collective.
You sound like a bleeding heart HWSNBN, if you know who I mean?
Why don’t you find blog more conducive to your world view. Or suck gas!
Arnoldharris
I would submit, what you write is irrevelant, completely irrelevant. Israel is not ready to act at this cucial point in M.E. history. Israel knows what it has to do, that is to do nothing. The situation is explosive, and if Israel decides to be belligerant, and that is what you suggest, it can only make matters worse. The BB government is still very much in the western orbit.
Now if you are writing phantasy fiction, your post would have a lot of validity
yamit:
In your dreams yamit. “acquiring Sinai”, it is so easy to type but not easy to do. I am getting sick and tired of rocking chair generals, who have forgotton, or never knew that taking territory in the heat of battle usually involves expending blood on all sides.Israelis have shed enough blood. Why don’t you take your cod liver oil, and anti-arthritics and shuffle off to bed.
Egypt never effectively controlled Sinai, and ethnic Egyptians never lived there. The Egyptians dislike the Sinai Bedouins. There has been no independent Egyptian state since Pharaonic times, and a country continuously occupied for 2300 years cannot claim much sovereignty.
Well said ,Yamit
I May add that according to menapress agency, armed beduins are hunting down Egyption soldiers in Rafa whereas Suleiman has been appointed vice president !
The first thing is to create depth of defense by acquiring Sinai. Egyptians hate Israel for past offenses and wouldn’t hate us more for that. Egypt surrendered the Negev to Israel, Gaza to Palestine, and countless border rectifications to other neighbors.
Egypt never effectively controlled Sinai, and ethnic Egyptians never lived there. The Egyptians dislike the Sinai Bedouins. There has been no independent Egyptian state since Pharaonic times, and a country continuously occupied for 2300 years cannot claim much sovereignty.
Yamit posted his comment here while I was writing mine. I tend to agree with his assumption that Israel must pre-emptively take back the Sinai before the situation grows too dangerous. What the Obama administration, the UNO or anyone else has to say about any or all of this is now irrelevant.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
There goes the peace agreement for which James Earl Carter twisted Menachem Begin’s arm to evacuate the Sinai territory. Whatever happens on the ground in Egypt in the next few days, weeks, or months, it is all but certain that Mubarak as president for life is washed up. The only organized political power in Egypt in opposition to the Sadat-Mubarak regime is the Ilkwan (Moslem Brotherhood).
Then it will be only a matter of time before that government denounces the peace treaty with Israel, along with its recognition of the State of Israel, and begins re-militarizing the Sinai. At that point, the situation for Israel once again becomes existential. Which plainly means they must destroy the Egyptian air force in west of the Suez Canal and the Eqyption army in the Sinai. If not, that army will simply sweep eastward across the border into and across the Negev.
This will not be a war of hordes of infantry divisions. There is no way to sustain such forces in the deserts. Instead, this will be yet another exercise of tank warfare typified by Rommel, Rotmistrov and Tal, supplemented with mechanized infantry, self-propelled artillery and — above all — air power. Hopefully for Israel this will be another fight similar to the 1956 Suez campaign and the 1967 Six Day War. But that cannot be counted on for certain. Nor can Israel count on the ineptitude of battlefield leadership of previous Egyptian armies. And there is every reason to assume the Egyptian commanders will fairly well know in advance exactly what tactical moves to expect from Zahal. Unless the Israeli military high command has some surprises not previously discussed.
If must also be assumed that Israel will again be fighting on multiple fronts, with Lebanon’s Hezbollah leadership authorizing launchings of large numbers of rockets against Israel’s cities. Gaza could be flattened fairly quickly. The entire southern half of Lebanon would take a lot more time, and involve a greater number of battlefield casualties.
In any case, the time to prepare is now.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
Everybody knew Mubaraks days were numbered. A He is 82 B has cancer C elections are slated in any event in June. If Israel till now had not expected something along these line or that Egypt would undergo potentially radical change in only a few months, then I give up.
At the time of the Camp David Accords, the War of Attrition had about run it’s course. Egypt had no superpower patron after kicking the Russians out. Their military was no existential threat to Israel and because of lack of spare parts half their planes and tanks were red lined. They were bankrupt depending on Saudi stipends that were never paid in full and always delayed. Their population was growing by 1.5 million pr year and they couldn’t absorb their growing population in the workforce no less feed them all. The average Egyptian wage then was less than 500 dollars per yr. Everything was subsidized. I bought a very nice leather Jacket in Alexandria for 20 bucks.
We had invested billions in infrastructure in Sinai had two very modern air bases and numerous army bases. We laid roads water electric and telecommunication infrastructure. We had built towns and agricultural settlements in Northern Sinai and at Sharem.
We had strategic depth, oil, gas, uranium (low grade) magnesium and some copper. we discovered an underground fresh water lake under the Sinai sands with enough water for a million people for a hundred years. A virgin area that had a tourist potential second to none in the world year round.
Three weak national leaders created the most stupid agreement in the history of the world.
We gave up billions of energy dollars for nothing costing us almost 2 billion a year. at least a billion lost in tourist dollars x 30 years.
We lost strategic depth. The most advantageous modern air bases and early warning stations. Vast training areas for IAF and Land forces.
Hundreds of thousands of good paying civilian jobs.
We demolished and removed permanent Israeli settlement setting a precedent of Land for peace. Sinai withdrawal cost us almost 15 years of stagflation. The cost to Israel in so many ways is incalculable.
Israel got in return a flag on a building in Cairo and some diplomatic jobs that nobody wants.
With the ageing Hosni Mubarak soon gone, the American push for democracy in Egypt will bring the Muslim Brotherhood to power sooner or later. Egypt will become an Islamic fundamentalist state worse than Iran; Persians are generally more civilized and Westernized than Egyptians. Western culture has touched Cairo, but the influx of the impoverished and traditional rural population into the cities changes Egypt’s outlook. Israel should preempt the nuclear fundamentalist state. Sinai is central to the Jewish national conscience. It is included in the boundaries of Eretz Israel. The Jewish nation was formed there, Jewish law given there. Any nation would consider its cradle central to its conscience.
Sinai contains oil reserves vital for Israel and poor uranium deposits,What other reasons do we need to take it back?
Israel’s choice is not between confronting Egypt over Sinai or not, but whether to fight now far from her population centers and with Egypt politically unable to use its nuclear weapons, or fight several years or decades from now with Islamist Egyptian nuclear missiles fifty miles from major Israeli cities.
The Israeli-Egyptian situation is more serious than the Cuban missile crisis. The Soviets were unlikely to use nuclear weapons against the United States, but fundamentalist Egypt, with a failed economy and a Jew-hating population will definitely attack Israel. Kennedy preempted and cleared nuclear depth of defense for his country.
Egypt is burning. And it will fall to the radicals. This time or the next, it’s all but inevitable. We will have a nuclear neighbor state which deals in jihad, sharia, and glorious afterlife, not mutually assured destruction. Islamic nuclear axis will extend to the border of Israel. We could have defused the threat years ago with draconian military measures, massive propaganda, and elimination of the Egyptian nuclear capabilities. Now it’s just too late. The bombs which will detonate in New York and Tel Aviv are being built. The people who will give orders to deliver them are ascending to power. And we are waiting for it.
to throw out Mubarak who allowed thousands of weapons tunnels dug from his soil to terrorists with the express reason to bring death to
innocentIsraelis. an indisputable fact….not that it has mattered to anyone.If this was not bad enough the man has starved and oppressed his people. Every head of state knew it. So while the powers that be like us to think there will be some kind of horrible outcome for Israel, please, no one cared before so only now because Obama is office do we appear to care. Ditto Jordan who made millions along with Sadam who appeared to be an ally of the war on terror while at the same time allowing thousands of insurgents into Iraq to help in the quest to kill our boys.
Boy oh boy, we should be cheering not fussing on who will fill the vacuum and when. The end result is for now they are all terrorist driven to one extent or another. The bottom line now and forever remains clear. The only way to illicit change in the ME is through revolution. BTW: Contrary to both Bush and Obama Mubarak was no ally of any consequence nor a good friend.