T. Belman. I have trouble with some of the points Vic is making. Surely he can’t be arguing for no relations because no country is an island. All countries have relations and allies. The price of being in a relationship is that there must be give and take. One often has to please one’s partner, like it or not. That’s the price of a relationship.
As for who to vote for, I will vote for Likud even though I like what Yamina stands for better. Netanyahu, for all his faults and centrist policies, has done a lot to improve Israel’s standing and strength. He stood up to Obama and is capitalizing on Trump and Putin. He deserves to continue in his present role.
By Victor Rosenthal
It’s the day before the election and I awoke with a strong feeling of disquiet.
PM Netanyahu has said that he approves of the idea of a “mutual defense pact” with the US. While I don’t precisely know what that would be, I can’t see any way it could be a good thing.
Keep in mind the most fundamental principle of international relations: nations act in accordance with their interests. If the US decides that it is in its interest to take military (or any other) action against Iran, it will do so; if not, then not. If the US chooses to support Israel if she is attacked, it will do so – if and only if that support is seen to be in the American interest. A treaty can serve as a useful excuse for actions that one side wants to take anyway, or reasons can be found to bypass it if not – and when there is a great power imbalance between the sides, how can the weaker party enforce its rights under the treaty?
The Hebrew term for “negotiations” can be translated literally as “give and take.” What would Israel be required to give in this situation? Why should we pay – probably in the form of concessions to the Palestinians – for help that we would either get for free, or would not get in any case?
Israel doesn’t want or need other nations to fight for us, nor do we want to do errands for others. We would like to be able to buy military equipment – better with our own money, not with military aid – and would prefer that the 800-pound gorillas of the world do not intervene in our conflicts. We don’t want to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the International Criminal Court, or countless other structures that would work against our self-defense. We would like support in the Security Council and other international forums. That would be a lot less expensive for the US than the military aid, and wouldn’t require a treaty.
Any treaty would come with some constraints on our actions. If we had had a mutual defense treaty with the US in 1967, would we have acted preemptively? Or would we have held long discussions with our ally while Egyptian tanks were on their way to Tel Aviv?
A treaty is made with one administration, but it remains in effect after a change in government. The Trump Administration has (so far) been the friendliest American administration to Israel since her founding, but some of Trump’s opposition candidates make Obama and Kerry look like Zionists. Would a treaty be honored by such an administration? What would we have already given up – that we could not get back – to get it?
One of the most important lessons of the Holocaust was that the Jewish people – and by extension, the Jewish state – cannot depend on others to protect them. By adhering to this principle, the State of Israel has managed to achieve victory in several regional wars and to develop a deterrent force that has kept her safe despite the oft-expressed desire of her enemies to destroy her. A mutual defense treaty would weaken our commitment to this principle, and practically would erode our own deterrent forces.
Caroline Glick makes an argument for an “upgraded defense relationship” with the US. She wants to see Israel’s military connection to the US be via Central Command, along with the Arab states, as well as increased cooperation in the development of advanced weapons systems. She sees various advantages to such a realignment, and if that’s all that Bibi wants, then that would be fine. However, in plain English, a “mutual defense treaty” is something else – and very undesirable.
Back to my disquiet.
In his recent statement to the country, Bibi mentioned his “close friendship” with President Trump, and indeed mentioned him numerous times in his talk. He noted that he had cleared his plan to apply sovereignty to the Jordan Valley and to Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria with Trump. He discussed the “historic” deal that Trump will announce immediately after the election. According to leaks, it will leave most of Area C outside of isolated Jewish communities in Palestinian hands. Naftali Bennett of the right-wing Yamina bloc displayed a map showing a big fat corridor between Judea and Gaza, cutting the country in half. When Bibi and the Americans both said the map was “inaccurate,” Ayelet Shaked, leader of Yamina, demanded that Bibi produce the real map before the election – which of course he won’t do.
On the one hand, it’s only reasonable that Bibi would want to associate himself with the American President, especially one that has done so much for Israel. On the other, the degree of closeness makes me uncomfortable. Is Israel an independent nation which has a cooperative relationship with the US (and other great powers, like India, China, and Russia)? Or is it a satellite that takes dictation from its more powerful partner – or far worse, from one person, Mr. Trump?
It was highly problematic in 2015, when the Obama Administration intervened (against Netanyahu) in our national election. Is this not another kind of intervention? How close do we really want to be to the controversial – and mercurial – American President?
I’ve argued before that we are much too dependent on the US, and that we should start reducing that dependence, by making a plan to phase out American military aid. But Bibi is moving in the opposite direction.
Tomorrow I will cast my ballot, and no matter how uncomfortable I feel, it isn’t enough to make me vote for Benny Gantz, whose “party” consists of a few generals and one journalist stuck together with anti-Bibi chewing gum. I will vote for Yamina, knowing that they will recommend Netanyahu to form the government, and I will hope that he succeeds in forming a workable coalition.
But enough is enough. Bibi cannot and – it’s lately becoming more and more evident – should not be Prime Minister for life. It’s time for Israel to develop some reasonable alternatives.
Netanyahu once thought Jordan Valley settlements were dispensable
The truth: Bibi encouraged and showed considerable interest in the Allen Plan and never said annexation was necessary. Blue and White’s Bogie Ya’alon, as Bibi’s Defense Minister, vetoed the Allen Plan, NOT Bibi. Bogie also forbad Gantz from discussing the plan with US officials. https://twitter.com/nerizilber/status/1172508663162003457 …
https://twitter.com/NeriZilber/status/1172508663162003457?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1172770387802886150&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ynetnews.com%2Farticles%2F0%2C7340%2CL-5589304%2C00.html
BB is as pathetic liar and demagogue…. He has no red lines only personal ambitions and interests …he will cave to just about any perceived pressure either foreign or domestic.
THE PEOPLE HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF HIM AND WHILE I HAVE MY CONCERNS WITH BLUE AND WHITE THEY ARE NOT A LEFTIST PARTY.
@ Ted Belman:
raul spofu Said:
“surrrender?”
With BB as PM and a current alternative is a distinction without a difference
Jeremy Man Saltan informed me that the OFFICIAL Election Results are certified 8 days after the election. So this would be the 25th of Sept.
So we can estimate Rivlin will take about one week to consult with parties. So we can guesstimate that around Oct. 2nd Rivlin will probably ask Bibi or Gantz to try and form a coalition. Assuming Rosh HaShana does not interfere too much in the process. Also Bibi may have a legal hearing on Oct. 2nd. So maybe Israel will have new government by the end of October.
Reminder at 10:00 PM Israeli Time – Polls close unless a few are held open longer for various reasons.
This allows for Exit polling to be announced. This is notoriously bad in Israel. In the USA it is always perfect remember Al Gore won Florida and became POTUS. Oh yeah that was a mistake.
Israelis either do not talk to pollsters or lie to them sometimes.
Wednesday UNOFFICIAL RESULTS start being broadcast. OFFICIAL RESULTS ARE About ONE WEEK later. (forget exact date).
President Rivlin has announced only after the official results he will talk with the parties to determine who to give a chance to form a government. He said this time it will be for 28 Days ONLY and NOT allow for a 14 day extension. He will do what he can to have a government as quickly as possible.
I have been advised vote party OTZMA to cross threshold cannot lose four seats
@ yamit82:
Jeff, sober up. The alternative to Netanyahu is surrender.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
I have several things I am doing today, so sorry Adam I will be doing no blow by blow of the election commentary this time.
Has anyone heard or seen any “illegal” polls on facebook or twitter about the voting in Israel as of now? (9:49 EST, 4:49 pm Israel time)? This is a genuine question. Bear, you always know the latest facts–have you seen anything?
@ Bear Klein:
Bear…I think you’re inclined to float “chimeras”…Concerning it’s own defence, Israel IS as independent as it chooses to be. I cannot see a massive, heavily armed country like the US, ever asking Israel for more than what the present relationship asks. That is, intelligence, R&D plus perhaps a stging area or etc. ,
Other than Eisenhower and Obama, I don’t recall any US President placing restrictions on aid to Israel when embattled. I can be corrected on this, but….this is not important.
To some, Trump is “mercurial”, but rarely to his own permanent disadvantage. His plans seem to keep on track, especially those concerning Israel. The only uncertainly now is what the Plan contains. All the leaks are negative, but, with the strong attitude he has taken against Arab intransigence, peculation, and trickery, It doesn’t seem likely that he has any kind of “Palestinian” (so-called) state in mind.
But, we just don’t know.. Rumours keep flying around, each as improbable as the next and previous. We must WAIT and SEE, before we condemn. And contrary to Victor’s belief, Israel will not find it impossible to refuse any Trump move which they believe might endanger it’s safety.
Mark Levin, in his broadcast the other evening, posted on this site, put it very plainly and truly. But the People seem to have gone mashugga, which is the only reason that I can find, for a cabal of 4 failed and politically useless generals to be neck and neck with the most successful political party in Israel’s history. The one which brought Israel from the Dark ages to being a State to be reckoned amongst the great ones of the world.
But…it seems that up to the wire, larg proportion of voters are reported to have not yet made up their minds. How true, we’ll find out tomorrow…. P.G.
I changed my mind. Will be voting for Yamina because I like their policies better and a vote for them is also a vote in support of Bibi.
This report is from Yeshiva World, which often reports news from Israel that is not reported in the English language Israeli press. If true, it raises further doubts about the suitability of Gantz to be Prime Minister. This “mistress” thing will be an additional burden for Gantz to bear if he becomes Prime Minister, if his opponents decide to publicize it and use it against him. So long “Mr. Clean” image..
@ yamit82:
It has now been posted. Thanks for the run down. Either of us could add to the list. One of my big criticisms is that he allowed all the illegal Arab construction in Samaria.
Until I wrote my comment, it was my intention to vote for Yamina. I am not sure what drove me to prefer Likud. One of my thoughts was that Bibi has unfinished business with both Putin and Trump. All three will be gone in 5 years.
Anyway, thanks for the list.
My wish since 1967 is Jordan as Arab Palestine, Israel as Jewish Palestine. How, after all the murder and mayhem, can the Jewish people on the left still support Oslo and the carving of Israel?
If the left-of-center parties plus the Arabs have a clear majority after the election, we are in for a real mess. If Gantz puts together a left coalition, it will necessarily ihave to include the Arabs, which I think will be a disaster. If they form a unity government with Likud, the results won’t be much better. Gantz will try to push through his pro-PLO, pro-two-state-solution, and anti-settler agenda. The Likud and any other right wing parties will be outraged, and if they can’t prevent Gantz from pursueing this agenda, they will resign from the government, andwe will be left with a leftwing minority government. A minority government will probably be unpopular and ineffectual, and will soon break up, requiring new elections, which is all we need.
But the biggest problem with a Gantz government will be his political inexperience, his secretiveness and uncommunicativeness, his “tortoise-like” difficulty in making quick decisions, and his extremely uncharismatic personality. According to some reports, even his most fervent supporters have trouble staying awake during one of his speeches. Such a leader will be totally inadequate to deal effectively with a major attack by Hamas, Hizbollah, Iran, Syria, etc., all of which are distinct possibiities, according to Israeli military intelligence, over the next few months.
I agree with Rosenthal 100% and am not surprised by Belman.…
@ Bear Klein: I also support Yamina. I just don’t want Gantz and Lapid, for many reasons. Some people on the right seem to think a vote for them is better than a vote for one of the right wing parties. They are crazy.
You do seem to get it that Bibi is unlikely to stay in office long after the election, and that will be the time to think about who should succeed him as Prime Minister. Although I like Shaked and Smotrich, the reality is that the Likud is the largest party on the Right. And the new leader of the Likud, whoever he or she is, will succeed Bibi as Prime Minister–if,that is, if the Right wins the election. And that is the big “if.”
My longer comment was botted??/
BB sucks !!
BB has been a disaster for Israel.
Hezbollah under BB has a 150K rockets and missiles aimed at all of Israel.
Hamas has not only rearmed they have improved their numbers, range, payloads, and accuracy. Now they also employ drones and what Iran just did to the Saudis they can do to Israel.
Iran is now firmly ensconced in Syria and Iraq.
They have built-in Lebanon a Missile production Industry under the nose of the IDF and BB.
BB has tied Israel to close and dependent on America we have become total vassalage of America … We can no longer call ourselves an independent nation we have sold our national soul for a pot of lentils just as Esau did.
Taxes here one of the highest in the world. The Negev largely ignored and there is a shortage of doctors and teachers. Infrastructure terrible Hospitals dirty overcrowded and very long waits for specialist appointments. Few good employment opportunities and most young Israelis leave after army service.
Local gov wasteful and mostly corrupt
Bedouin have land grabbed much of the Negev and BB does nothing.
1.8 million Israelis live below the Israeli poverty line including over a million children.
Housing costs here are some of the highest in the world. Food in Israel cost twice what they pay in Europe. Water and electric service very expensive.
Under BB no new Major National projects. Fewest housing starts in Y&S than any other PM and that includes under Peres who built more than BB. in 3 years than BB has built-in 10 years. BB has blocked new construction the main cause for sky-high housing costs. Why because caved to pressure by his handlers and bosses in Washington and fear of EU.
Under BB the IDF has shown itself to be highly technical but senior office corp political incompetents. Israel hasn’t won a war since 73. BB hasn’t won anything in his 10 years as PM but has been in incremental retreat.
Add to his corruption and crazy wife who dominates him we have a scary situation here, I fear may fall on us like a ton of bricks before we realize what hit us. The homeland is unprepared for war or natural disaster andBB is responsible for the unpreparedness.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Sorry Charlie, I mean Adam I do get it very well. Yamina is a solid right wing vote with talented people running the party starting with Shaked.
People to the right of Bibi worry he is more talk than actual “annexation”. If a right wing coalition is formed that I think he will act as Yamina and others including Likudniks will insist.
I am talking about the future. Bibi might get elected now but will an immunity bill have to be passed to stop him having to be indicted during his term in office. Bibi is fighting to stay out of jail. How much time will he have for Israel and what compromises will he have to make.
Can not wait to see what ministry Ben Gvir (Otzma) will demand to keep Bibi out of jail. Likud is saying no way right now to Ben Gvir having a Ministry to manage.
@ Bear Klein: Bear, I don’t think you and many others on the right “get it.” If Bibi, together with the Likud and the rest of the right bloc (they are all joined together at the hip in this election) loses, the result will not be a right wing government but one well to the left of center. The Blue-White people are committed to the two-state solution, the abandonment of numerous “settlements” in Judea-Samaria in return for a peace deal with the PLO, and the eventual withdrawal of the IDF from the strategic mountainous areas of Judea and Samaris, a few miles from Israel major population centers in the Gush Dan region, in return for a peace deal. As Dr. Martin Sherman has pointed out, that will place a time bomb on Israel’s security.
Anyone who is serious about wanting to replace Bibi with another leader on the right must vote for Likud or one of the other rightwing parties. The reason is that if A-G Mandelblit goes through with stated intention of indicting Netanyahu on criminal charges, the Likud will have to choose a new leader, who will become the new Prime Minister. Although Bibi will try his best to talk Mandelblit out of his determination to indict him at Bibi’s preliminary hearing, it seems unlikely that he will succeed. And even if he persuades Mandelblit to drop these particlar charges, there will soon be others. Bibi has been under continuous criminal investigation since 1996. I believe that the motives behind these investigations and the present criminal charges are political, not legal. But that is obviously impossible to “prove” that in a comment space. The point is that at some point he will be tired of being hassled, or his political supporters will tire of it, and he will step down before his full term of office is complete. Then a new leader on the right will succeed him.
This is from an article in IsraelHayom , dated 9-15-19, that I think we all should think about.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
We will find out how many. Many of us want a new leader already from the right. Bibi has been good it is now not healthy that he is PM so long.
Very ominous that so many people on the Right, such as Vic Rosenthal and Isi Leibler–want Bibi out. Good God, they don’t realize what they are letting themmselves in for.
Fastest way to get the US to stop supporting Israel is to have American soldiers dying defending an Israel that is capable of fighting its own battles.
Why would we enter this potential quick sand?
Trump is trying to help Bibi in the election, that is why this discussion now of Defense Treaties.
Israel needs to be independent. Yes, it is good to have the US as a friend but Israel must always make its own decisions.
If Israel has the US as a backup for security purposes, will it start spending less money on defense and become dependent on the US for its defense? This is what has occurred with the Germans, French, Italians, etc.
Where Vic is wrong is the map Bennett showed is pure speculation and not an actual map. Bennett admitted this. The US has also said the map is false and not accurate.
There will be things in Trumps plan Israel will NOT like. I hope Yamina gets a lot of seats so it can help Bibi fight against these things, such as a corridor between Gaza and Judea/Samaria for the Pal-Arabs.