Jafaj | September 11, 2024
Summary Of Findings & Conclusions: An Arms Embargo
– Proposed as a measure to pressure the nation over its policies in Gaza, will likely destabilize the region economically, militarily and politically by weakening Israel’s defense capabilities.
– Will embolden adversaries wishing to destroy Israel such as Iran and its proxies. This will disrupt the Middle East’s balance of power.
– Would strain diplomatic relations with Western allies and negatively, leading to broader economic repercussions.
Key Report Points: An Embargo Would Impact
– Israel’s Defense Capabilities: Israel relies on arms imports from Allies to maintain it’s military. An embargo will reduce Israel’s ability to respond to threats from Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis, weakening its national security.
– Regional Stability: A diminished Israeli military presence could destabilize the region, creating a power vacuum that adversaries could exploit. Nations such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, while very critical of Israeli policies, prefer a strong Israel to counterbalance Iranian influence in the region.
– Diplomacy: An embargo could lead to clear diplomatic rifts between Israel and her supporters, as well as weapons product purchasers and suppliers.
– Economy: The Israeli defense industry is a large part of the nation’s economic activity, and an embargo would jeopardize jobs and impact global defense partnerships.
JaFaJ Recommendations: Alternative Approaches
– Instead of an embargo, the following could be supported:
- Intensifying the use of diplomatic efforts,
- Ensuring that arms exports to Israel comply with international law and transparency in military operations
- That a balanced approach involving peace negotiations is preferred to a blanket embargo.
————————
Background: Defining an Arms Embargo – An Introduction
An arms embargo is a sanction where countries and/or international organizations prohibit the export of arms and military equipment to a targeted nation. The goal is typically to pressure the target into changing policies or to mitigate conflicts. Embargoes are imposed unilaterally or multilaterally, and in the case of Israel, an arms embargo could severely affect its defense capabilities given the country’s reliance on sophisticated military equipment to maintain its strategic edge in a volatile region.
With the prolonged war in Gaza, countries such as Jordan are now considering advocating for an arms embargo against Israel. Given that the Jordanian Minister of Foreign Affairs would not publicly support such a move without the consent or direction of King Abdullah II, this step reflects growing frustration with the ongoing conflict and crisis in Gaza.
Current Suppliers of Arms to Israel
Israel’s military strength stems from strong ties with several arms suppliers, primarily:
– The United States: The largest arms supplier to Israel, the U.S. provides a wide range of military technology through Foreign Military Financing (FMF). This includes fighter jets like the F-35, missile defense systems such as Iron Dome, and precision-guided munitions. U.S. military aid to Israel totals approximately $3.8 billion annually, mostly for defense spending. The U.S. also provides significant backing for Israel’s military initiatives (U.S. Congressional Research Service, “U.S. Foreign Aid to Israel,” 2023 ).
– Germany: Israel has purchased advanced submarines from Germany, including Dolphin-class vessels, which are crucial for Israel’s naval and strategic nuclear deterrent capabilities. (The Jerusalem Post, “Germany’s Submarine Sales to Israel,” 2023).
– France and Italy: Although their contributions are less than the USA and Germany, both have provided military aircraft and other defense equipment. French arms exports include surveillance and reconnaissance technologies, while Italy supplies naval systems.
Weapons Systems Utilized by Israel
Israel maintains a technologically advanced and diverse arsenal, including:
– Air Force: F-35I Adir jets, a modified version of the F-35, are central to Israeli air dominance. The Israeli Air Force also deploys F-16s and F-15s.
– Missile Defense: Israel is known for its Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow missile defense systems, which are crucial in intercepting rockets from Hamas and Hezbollah.
– Naval Power: Israel’s fleet includes missile corvettes and Dolphin-class submarines equipped with nuclear-capable cruise missiles.
– Land Forces: Israel operates Merkava tanks and advanced surveillance systems, including drones. They play a significant role in counter-terrorism operations in Gaza and along the Lebanese border with Hezbollah.
Analysis – Part 1: The Pros of an Arms Embargo against Israel
– Political Pressure for Policy Change: Proponents argue that an arms embargo would send a clear message to Israel, urging it to reconsider its policies, particularly toward Gaza and the West Bank. By limiting Israel’s access to weapons, the international community could pressure Israel to re-engage in peace negotiations and adopt a more humanitarian approach. (Amnesty International, “Calls for Accountability in Gaza Conflict,” 2023).
– Support for Palestinian Rights: An arms embargo would show solidarity with the Palestinian cause, sending a strong signal that the international community is willing to act decisively in response to alleged violations of human rights and international law by Israel (Al Jazeera, “Regional Support for an Arms Embargo on Israel,” 2023).
– Potential De-Escalation of Conflict: Without access to certain types of arms, the frequency and intensity of Israeli military operations in Gaza might decrease, potentially reducing casualties and allowing humanitarian aid to flow more freely.
– Devastating the Economy: An arms embargo will bring down the nation – please see commentary in the Analysis section, part 4.
Analysis – Part 2: Cons of an Arms Embargo Against Israel
– Undermining Israeli Security: Israel faces existential threats from a range of hostile actors, including Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. An arms embargo could weaken Israel’s military readiness, leaving it vulnerable to attacks. Hezbollah, for example, has amassed over 150,000 rockets aimed at Israel, while Iran continues to develop long-range missiles that could reach Israeli territory (Foreign Policy, “Hezbollah’s Threat to Israeli Security,” 2023).
– Destabilizing the Region: Israel’s military strength is a cornerstone of the current balance of power in the Middle East. A weakened Israel could embolden Iran and its proxies, creating opportunities for increased hostilities. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, while critical of Israeli policies, depend on a strong Israel to counter Iranian influence. Any significant military imbalance could trigger further regional instability (International Crisis Group, “Middle East Stability and the Role of Israel,” 2022).
– Economic Impacts: Israel has a robust defense industry that not only serves its military, but also drives significant exports. An arms embargo would harm Israel’s economy, negatively impacting companies involved in Israel’s defense projects, including in the U.S., Germany, and Italy (The Economist, “Israel’s Defense Industry in the Global Arms Market,” 2022).
– Diplomatic Fallout: An arms embargo would likely cause a diplomatic rift between Israel and its Western allies, particularly the U.S. and European nations that have maintained strong defense ties with Israel for decades. This could further complicate the peace processes and weaken the international coalition that opposes terrorism in the region.
Analysis – Part 3: Regional Perspectives on an Arms Embargo
– Jordan: While the Jordanian Foreign Minister has suggested an embargo, it’s clear this decision would not move forward without the support of King Abdullah II. Jordan’s position reflects concerns about Israeli actions in Gaza but also acknowledges that regional stability relies on Israel’s military strength to counterbalance Iran (The Jordan Times, “King Abdullah’s Stance on Regional Security,” 2023).
– Saudi Arabia: While critical of Israeli policies in Palestine, Saudi Arabia remains wary of weakening Israel too much, as both nations share concerns over Iranian influence (The National, “Saudi-Israeli Relations and Regional Security,” 2023).
– Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis: These actors would welcome an arms embargo on Israel, seeing it as an opportunity to capitalize on Israeli vulnerabilities. Iran continues to supply Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis with weapons, and a weakened Israel would enable these groups to exert more influence in the region (Brookings Institution, “Iran’s Influence in the Middle East,” 2023).
Analysis – Part 4: An Embargo’s Economic Impact(s)
An arms embargo on Israel would have severe economic repercussions, largely due to the defense and high-tech sectors’ central role in the country’s economy. Israel ranks among the top 10 global arms exporters, generating around $11.3 billion annually from defense exports (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute – SIPRI). These exports contribute roughly 2.5% to Israel’s GDP, with most sales directed to Asia, Europe, and the Americas. Cutting off these exports would lead to substantial economic losses, with estimates suggesting Israel could lose as much as $6 billion in direct revenue annually, according to SIPRI’s recent data.
Employment would be one of the first casualties of such an embargo. The defense industry employs about 50,000 people directly, as noted by The Times of Israel. This represents a significant portion of Israel’s high-tech workforce, which drives much of the country’s economic growth. An embargo would not only result in job losses in these sectors but would also indirectly affect tens of thousands of jobs in related industries, from suppliers to logistics. According to The Economist, the ripple effect could lead to an overall increase in the unemployment rate by up to 2%, which would significantly affect consumer spending, tax revenues, and overall economic stability.
Additionally, military R&D plays a pivotal role in driving technological innovation. A significant proportion of Israel’s advancements in cybersecurity, communication systems, and autonomous technologies are rooted in defense research. TechCrunch reports that over 30% of Israel’s high-tech innovations originated from defense R&D. An arms embargo would stifle these innovations, curbing Israel’s global competitiveness and weakening its position as a leader in the high-tech sector. This, in turn, could shrink its lucrative tech-export market, valued at over $40 billion annually.
Foreign investment, another critical pillar of Israel’s economy, would also suffer under an embargo. Bloomberg notes that Israel’s defense technology attracts billions in foreign direct investment (FDI) annually, contributing heavily to economic stability. An arms embargo would not only reduce investor confidence in Israel’s defense sector but could lead to a withdrawal of investments across other sectors, exacerbating the economic fallout. Estimates suggest that a drop in FDI could reduce Israel’s overall economic growth by 1-2% per year, according to a report from The Financial Times.
In summary, the economic damage from an arms embargo on Israel would extend far beyond the defense sector. The loss of revenue, jobs, R&D, and foreign investment would destabilize the broader economy, leading to long-term consequences for the country’s global standing and economic resilience.
Recommendations: Avoiding the Embargo: Is There a Middle Ground?
An arms embargo against Israel would likely exacerbate tensions in the region rather than reduce them. Instead of an embargo, there are alternative paths that should be pursued:
– Strengthened Diplomatic Engagement: The U.S., EU, and regional powers such as Egypt and Jordan could lead renewed diplomatic efforts to revive peace talks between Israel and Palestine. This approach would involve offering Israel security guarantees while demanding concrete actions toward ending the Gaza blockade.
– Increased Transparency and Accountability: Rather than cutting off arms supplies entirely, the international community could push for greater transparency in Israel’s use of military equipment, ensuring that it is used in compliance with international law. Arms sales could be conditioned on Israel’s adherence to human rights norms, with mechanisms in place to hold it accountable for violations (UN Security Council, “Resolution 2334 on Middle East Peace,” 2016).
Conclusion: An Arms Embargo is Bad for Israel and the Region
Even though an arms embargo may seem like a viable method to pressure Israel into changing its policies, it would have negative consequences regionally. Additionally, weakening Israel’s defense capabilities will embolden Iran, and her terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, leading to greater regional instability and conflict. The economic impact on Israel and its defense industry would be significant, while the diplomatic fallout could strain relationships between Israel and key allies.
Rather than pursuing an arms embargo, the international community should seek to enhance diplomatic efforts, promote transparency in military operations, and support a balanced approach that ensures Israel’s security while addressing Palestinian concerns. Only through constructive engagement and cooperation can the region hope to move towards lasting peace.
Bibliography
- Amnesty International. “Calls for Accountability in Gaza Conflict.” http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/05/calls-for-accountability-gaza.
- Foreign Policy. “Hezbollah’s Threat to Israeli Security.” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/hezbollah-threat-israel.
- The Jordan Times. “King Abdullah’s Stance on Regional Security.” http://www.jordantimes.com/news/regional/king-abdullah-regional-security.
- The Economist. “Israel’s Defense Industry in the Global Arms Market.” http://www.economist.com/2023/defense-industry-israel.
- Brookings Institution. “Iran’s Influence in the Middle East.” http://www.brookings.edu/research/iran-influence-middle-east.
- United Nations Security Council. “Resolution 2334 on Middle East Peace.” http://www.un.org/press/en/2016/sc12657.doc.htm.
We’ve all heard about the embargo against Israel but I have never heard of similar embargo against any of our neighbors. Isn’t that strange?
There are a couple of points that crossed my mind while reading this article:
The whole world enjoys the fruits of Israel’s endeavors to develop new technologies. Saying that Israel is being supplied with Iron Domes is a little over the top. Israel made the mistake of depending on USA to provide the munition for it, thus putting USA in a position to bend Israel to its will. I think we have learned that lesson.
Other countries have provided arms and munitions in the past and stopped providing them when it counted most – think of France and the 6 day war.
The whole world benefits, whether they admit it or not, from Israeli know-how. While tit-for-tat is a childish game to play, it often achieves its intended purpose. Israel might want to seriously consider embargoing some of the goodies including the intelligence she provides to help other countries avoid the embarrassment of terrorist activities.
Israel also suffers from the brain-drain syndrome. Young well militarly trained experts in certain occupations are well received all over the world. It’s time to put an end to that.