The Art of the Bad Deal

By Walter E. Block

Donald Trump wrote a book called the Art of the Deal. He meant to focus his spotlight on good deals. And he did so. Spectacularly well.

One day someone will write a book entitled The Art of the Bad Deal. If this ever comes to pass, the author ought to include a chapter on the exchange of one Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, in return for the release of 1027 Arabs in Israeli prisons. One of these jailbirds was Yahya Sinwar, the brains behind the Aqsa Flood, the October 7, 2033 murder and kidnapping of almost 1500 Israelis and other nationals.

The past is the past of course and cannot now be changed. I write at present, however, not to do any such thing. Never again! Rather, it is to attempt to dissuade Israel from ever doing anything like that ever again. Unfortunately, there will be a strong temptation to repeat the past in this regard. With the demise of Yahya Sinwar, the enemies of Israel in Europe, in the United Nations, all around the world, are even more intent than in the past that a deal be imposed upon Israel to “take the win” and engage in a pause, a cease-fire, peace, and the release of some 100 remaining abductees held by Hamas.

In return for what? Presumably, this would require the freeing of thousands of terrorists now held in Israeli jails. If the Jewish state has learned anything from the Worst Deal ever made in the history of warfare in 2011, it will adamantly refuse to undertake any such swap ever again. “Never again” should be the Israeli motto if forced, cajoled, threatened, to acquiesce in any such arrangement at the close of the present war. If Israel agrees, it will show it has learned nothing from this bit of history.

Not only will the pressure to do so emanate from the Democratic party of the US, it will also arise from the friends and family of the 100 or so hostages still held by Hamas. Who would these people be? Why, every Israeli without exception, every Jew on the planet without exception, and the entire decent part of the human race, again without exception. Paradoxically, the Knesset must harden its heart against this swell of decent humanity. For if it backs down, it will be setting up the stage for the next October 7, 2033, when all those prisoners released from Israeli penitentiaries will be only too happy to emulate Yahya Sinwar.

We all see the present Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The hearts of all decent people go out to them, to their families, and to their loved ones. (By a long shot, this does not exhaust the number of human beings who take note of this phenomenon. All too many of them rip down the pictures of these hostages, when they would never do so regarding depictions of a lost dog or lost cat.)

Who do we not see? We do not see the future hostages who will be seized by the Middle East evil-doers if Israel releases many prisoners held in its jails. But they, too, are in danger. If we have learned anything from the release of Yahya Sinwar, who then turned around and in addition to murdering some 1200 innocent Israelis, kidnapped another 250 or so and turned them into hostages, Israel will do no such thing.

There is a phenomenon in economics called “time preference.” It translates roughly into “patience” for a low time preference rate, and “impatience” for a high level, thereof. In the former case, at any given interest rate, people are more willing to lend, other things equal, than to borrow. In the latter, the opposite is the case. With low time preferences, the interest rate is small. With high time preferences, the interest rate is elevated. I am asking, hoping, praying, that the Knesset will adopt a low time preference rate. Yes, of course, focus on the present, and the plight of the remaining hostages. But, also, more important since it is more difficult to see and take cognizance of, look, too, to the future. Think, also, very carefully in terms of future hostages of monstrous Iran and its evil proxies.

Be very cautious, careful, penurious, in terms of releasing terrorists now held in Israeli prisons.

The goal is to free those hostages without releasing a single Arab prisoner now held in an Israeli jail. We know exactly who these hostages are (we do not know which ones are dead and which ones are alive). However, we do not have even an inkling of who the future hostages will be, if Hamas prisoners are released. We must care for them, too. And the only way, the best way, to do so is to get the present hostages free without making any “bad deals.”