Tehran’s Diplomatic Gambit Aims to Forestall Pressure While Advancing Nuclear Program

Negotiations are a means but not always to the same end.

The White House is seriously considering indirect talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran, Axios reported on April 2. This follows President Trump’s March 5 letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in which the president warned of military action against Iran’s atomic infrastructure if the Islamic Republic failed to reach a nuclear deal within two months. Tehran initially said it rejected direct talks so long as it remains under maximum pressure sanctions but has since counteroffered with indirect talks via Oman.

Washington is hoping to use recently restored U.S. sanctions to drive Tehran to the negotiating table for “full dismantlement” of its nuclear program, in the words of National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. But Iran has a different idea. By half-opening the door for diplomacy, Tehran is looking to run out the clock, expand its nuclear program, and handicap the United States’ will to meaningfully contest it.

Tehran Seeks to Prevent Military Strikes on Its Nuclear Program at All Costs

America’s growing military footprint in the region and preemptive bombing campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen send a clear warning to Tehran about the credibility of a U.S. military option against its nuclear program.

Iran aims to exploit Trump’s deal-making instincts and stated preference for diplomacy over war. By feigning an interest in talks, it hopes to tempt the Trump administration with the prospect of an agreement that could be less costly than a military strike. Iran seeks to strengthen this impression by revealing underground missile cities and threatening strikes against U.S. bases. In sum, Tehran’s approach aims to render Washington’s growing military posture all bark and no bite.

Should talks take place, expect Iran to stall, betting that Washington would be too politically invested to escalate and close the door on diplomacy. But tempting Washington with diplomacy is aimed not only at forestalling a U.S. strike but also at eroding the justification for a preemptive Israeli attack. Iran is still reeling from the neutering of its proxies and two successful counterstrikes on its soil by Israel in 2024. Earlier this March, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir declared 2025 a year focused on preparing for potential conflict with Iran. But as former Israeli National Security Adviser Jacob Nagel recently warned, Israel is highly unlikely to carry out an attack while negotiations are taking place.

Stopping ‘Snapback’ Is a Top Diplomatic Priority

By appearing open to diplomacy, Tehran also aims to weaken European resolve, which has been growing, to initiate snapback sanctions at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) before they expire on October 18, 2025. UNSC Resolution 2231, which codified the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, permits deal participants to reimpose pre-2015 UN penalties against Iran. These include international arms embargoes, missile testing bans, and sanctions, alongside calls to halt uranium enrichment. Iran seeks to run out the clock on snapback, hoping remaining UN restrictions “sunset.”

The Regime Faces Crises at Home

Iran is facing multiple domestic crises — economic, environmental, and civic. The rial hit a record low of 1,039,000 against the U.S. dollar on March 25. Prolonged droughts triggered farmer-led protests in central Iran on March 30. Domestically, lawmakers are halting the controversial Hijab and Chastity law, fearing backlash for imposing severe penalties on women defying veiling requirements. Ironically, the regime had to suppress a pro-hijab protest on March 30 led by its own supporters demanding full implementation of the law.

Negotiations and even talk of diplomacy can create the illusion of de-escalation, which Tehran hopes will ease civic unrest, stabilize the rial, and elevate the regime’s stature, including against dissidents. Taking the first off-ramp to engage Tehran in talks now would play right into the regime’s strategy rather than magnify its vulnerabilities through maximum pressure.

Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Behnam Ben Taleblu is senior director of the Iran Program and a senior fellow. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Janatan and Behnam on X @JanatanSayeh and @therealBehnamBT. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.?