Tehran is betting on Russia

Iran in a race against time to acquire military power in all its forms so long as Moscow needs it.

By  Salem AlKetbi, ISRAEL HAYOM

For years, the world reduced the real and potential threat from Iran to its nuclear and missile programs. But the Iranian project, which was once narrowed to the ideological and sectarian aspect, has reached a more dangerous level that affects not only regional peace and security, but also the global level. The role played by Iranian drones in the war in Ukraine was not the first of its kind.

Iranian behavior is not a flash in the pan; this is just the tip of an iceberg that has become a global headache. This week, the media reported that Iran is in the process of modifying and developing its drones to inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian infrastructure.

The report is based on information from a British organization that Iranian “suicide drones” supplied to Russia for the war in Ukraine are coated with a layer of metal shards designed to cause maximum damage to vital facilities such as power plants, electricity distribution networks and power lines.

What concerns me as an observer of such reports is that one of the goals and motives for Iran’s intervention in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is to discover the limits of its weapons, test those weapons in realistic wars, and work to develop them further and increase their destructive power.

But what interests me about this issue is that Iran tends to acquire dangerously destructive capabilities in urban wars and unconventional conflicts as they accumulate along with its other traditional military capabilities. This is a major concern for Iran’s neighborhood.

The Iranian regime plays many disruptive roles, from Lebanon to Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere. Iran’s subversive capabilities will build up as it gears up to play a greater role in causing chaos and turmoil regionally and internationally in the event of a conflict between the West on one side and China and Russia, one or both, on the other.

It has become clear that the delivery of Iranian drones to Russia was not a one-off or a precedent, as the Iranian regime claimed, but a systematic policy that materialized in an agreement between Moscow and Tehran to produce Iranian drones in Russia to ensure that a large number of these drones could be procured to backfill Russian supplies in Ukraine and in anticipation of prolonging or further expanding the conflict.

What’s more, it’s been reported that Iran has reached an agreement to receive modern Russian fighter jets, including Su-35 and other advanced models, as part of an exchange of interests, in a symbolic step for the development of strategic cooperation between the two countries.

The move has sparked controversy among military experts, as some of them believe it will change the balance of power between the Gulf and Middle Eastern countries at the regional level, at least in terms of the effectiveness of these countries’ air forces, while others see it mainly as a threat to international peace and security, as Iran could become embroiled in the conflict between the West and its strategic foes.

In both assessments, suffice it to mention that the Russian Su-35 and similar weaponry will be the first modern combat aircraft that the Iranian Air Force has possessed since 1979.

Until now, the Iranian Air Force has relied on an old fleet of US-style aircraft that Iranian specialists have developed in recent years. This includes the F-14, reportedly evolving successfully to operate effectively despite its technological obsolescence and lack of original spare parts due to the sanctions imposed on Iran.

Other drones developed from the experience of the war in Ukraine could very well have been supplied to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraqi militias, and the Houthi group in Yemen, and are most likely being used to bomb civilian targets in neighboring countries, as was the case with the attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where the perpetrators remained nameless or were officially denied, but were known to all, at least in terms of the origin of the military equipment used.

The Iranian regime is clearly on the move, reflected in part by the hard line being taken in the final stages of reviving the nuclear agreement. Iranian negotiators are trying to impose dictates and conditions that they already know will be rejected. Tehran is betting on a Russian victory in the war in Ukraine.

And President Putin will not accept defeat even if he is forced to resort to nuclear weapons. This possible victory would radically change the game at the international level.

Iran is therefore in a race against time to acquire military power in all its forms. It is on the verge of possessing a nuclear military force and an arsenal of ballistic missiles that reaches to the borders of Europe. These are all serious problems and developments that must be addressed at the regional and international levels.

No one wants new wars in a region whose security and stability is one of its future bets.