The Syrian civil war highlights shifting alliances, Turkey’s ascendance, and enduring threats from Iran and jihadists.
By DR. ERIC R. MANDEL | DECEMBER 8, 2024
Smoke rises, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, December 8, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/AMR ABDALLAH DALSH)
Two weeks ago, the dormant 13-year-old Syrian civil war was barely on the radar of American and Israeli political, defense, and security leaders, with everyone focused on Iran, Hezbollah, and Gaza. The lesson is that those who think they know what is coming next in Syria and the region are fooling themselves.
After the Arab Winter in 2011, when Egyptian President Mubarak was toppled, few saw the rapid rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, which led to the election of the anti-American Islamist President Morsi. His short tenure ended in a coup by military strongman al-Sisi, who is still the authoritarian President of Egypt.
In retrospect, the events in the region over the past thirteen years seem to make sense, but they certainly didn’t at the time. Today’s political leaders must force themselves to remember how precarious the situation was at the time and how little insight our defense, security, and intelligence analysts had as the events transpired in real-time.
Today, Iran is on the defensive, but as a cornered rat, it is more dangerous than ever. With attention grabbed by the events unfolding in Syria, one might presume that Iran has suffered a major strategic defeat and is in no position to cause trouble, as its primary proxy in Lebanon is isolated, and Syria is no longer under its thumb.
On the contrary, while everyone is focused on Syria and the march of the jihadists backed by Turkey’s Islamist President Erdogan, we must not take our eye off the Islamic Republic of Iran, whose mullahs are likely to decide now is the time to dash to a nuclear weapon to become immune to an attack.
My recommendation to both the Biden and Trump administrations is to seize the moment of Israeli decapitation of Iran’s anti-missile system as the right time to strike on the nuclear weapons program. A nuclear Iran remains a nightmare scenario for the Middle East, Israel, and US national security interests.
Turkey’s rise in Syria
The apparent initial winner in Syria is Turkey, an American frenemy that is now ascendant in the region over Iran and Russia. From Erdogan’s view, Turkey is now in the position it should rightfully have: the great Muslim power in the Middle East, fulfilling his neo-Ottoman imperialist vision of restoring the loss of Turkey’s hundreds of years of leadership of the Muslim world.
The question is, will the jihadists of HTS be loyal to Erdogan over time? The alliances of the Syrian rebels could collapse. HTS are Salafists, an offshoot of al-Qaeda. The primary group Erdogan backed was the Syrian National Army (SNA), a rebel group that may be more moderate and weaker than HTS.
Will the stronger HTS jihadists devour their temporary SNA ally? Turkey will work with anyone who will allow it to take over northern Syria, ethically cleanse the Syrian Kurds from that region, and return the three million Syrian refugees to Syria who took shelter in Turkey during the civil war.
The Syrian Kurds, who helped the US defeat ISIS and are imprisoning tens of thousands of ISIS sympathizers, are now on the offensive from their territory in northwest Syria southward, taking over the crucial Sunni city of Deir al Zour. Turkey ethnically cleansed Kurds a few years ago from northeast Syria and is likely to turn its attention to the Kurds in the northwest, who they consider to be mortal enemies, part of the militant group PKK. The US sees the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as allies against ISIS. A Kurdish-Turkish war is the next shoe to fall, which will require the Trump administration to weigh in.
And what about the HTS’s ideological jihadist cousins, ISIS (DAESH)? Is this an opportunity for them to arise and wreak havoc in Syria, Iraq, and through the Middle East again as they did a decade ago?
Russia will do all it can to preserve its Hmeimim air base in Latakia and its Tartus naval port on the Mediterranean. The Iran alliance is a casualty for the time being. However, Russia will still work with Iran as part of the axis of resistance, buying drones and missiles for its war in Ukraine, adding to the Supreme Leader’s coffers.
As for Israel, it has preemptively moved forces into parts of the Syrian Golan to block jihadists on its border. Sunni jihadists are not friends of the Jewish State, but hopefully, a détente or ceasefire can be arranged. I doubt that HTS will directly speak with Israel, but Israel should try. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Remember, HTS’s sponsor, Erdogan, protects Hamas and is profoundly anti-Semitic.
Syria was the target for hundreds of Israeli strikes over the years. Still, it was exclusively about stopping the transit of Iranian arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and, most recently, about targeting Iranian assets and advanced weapons factories in Syria. Israel is now hitting the last of the Syrian and Iranian weapons facilities in Syria to prevent them from falling into the hands of adversaries. However, Israel should anticipate Iran finding new ways to support Hezbollah.
And don’t forget about Jordan. The jihadists can either march or inspire the Islamists in Jordan to destabilize a critical US ally, not to mention how Israel’s security would be undermined with jihadists in Amman.
With a new American administration only five weeks away and many potential Trump candidates in intelligence and defense positions profoundly influenced by America’s debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, the likely recommendation from this group will be for the US to do nothing.
However, the Marco Rubio-Mike Waltz faction knows better. Creating a vacuum in the Levant will create more chaos with the chance of American troops being drawn in again.
The temptation for the neo-isolationist wing is to remove the 900 US troops in the al-Tanf region in Syria, bordering Jordan and Iraq. They have been a stabilizing force in preventing the return of ISIS and supporting our Kurdish allies. They are a force multiplier for stability and should remain in place. But their safety needs to be watched closely and acted upon if the jihadists threaten them. In reality, their greatest threat is the Iranian-controlled militias in Iraq, and they are now on the defensive.
Now is not the time to forget about Iran. Suppose the Supreme Leader and the IRGC know America and Israel will not use kinetic actions to stop their dash to an atomic bomb. In that case, that is an invitation for the still dangerous Supreme Leader to act quickly to become a nuclear power and return to its hegemonic ambitions.
So, who will have President Trump’s ear, Rubio, Waltz, and company, or Vice President-elect Vance and Tulsi Gabbard? As always, America may want to leave the Middle East, but the region keeps calling it back.
Dr. Eric Mandel is the Director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and the Senior Security Editor of the Jerusalem Report. He regularly briefs member of Congress and their foreign policy aides.
All this talk of getting together with the new Syria reminds us of Trump’s oft repeated tale of the frog and the scorpion.
@Laura
True enough, but there does not exist a process by which Turkey might be removed from NATO.
In truth, back in the 1950’s the incorporation of Turkey into NATO represented a major victory for NATO in its ongoing Cold War with the Soviet Union, and as such, with the Soviet Union having dismantled itself some 30 years ago, the very purpose and nature of NATO has been re-imagined in that time to be something far more dominating then defensive, and far more autonomous than subordinate to international law than was true in the age of its birth.
The consequence of this re-imagining of NATO’s authority and character has been coincident with the re-imagining of Turkey as well, moving from a pro-Western, secular nation, to being an Islamist realm which calls for the utter collapse of Western civilization.
So, while NATO has become an international renegade, disregarding the rights and dignity of nations such as Serbia and Libya, it would be far less worrisome if its Islamist member were purged from its ranks. Of course, with the changing character of nations such as England and France, the adoption of such a process to be rid of nations which meet this standard might not be limited going forward with just the removal of the anti-Western, Islamist nation of Turkey, which again would be an important reason for NATO to self regulate against the continuation of having such anti-Western members in its ranks.
@Adam
I entirely disagree.
Despite the attempts to portray these rebels as being something other than what they are, they are overwhelmingly Jihadists, and are funded by none other than Turkey which is leading the radical Sunni Axis of the Muslim Brotherhood in the region.
While Israel has welcomed a future association with these Jihadis, their true nature must not be denied, and so too the overwhelming nature of the Islamist character of the Syrian people who are overwhelmingly embracing, supporting and celebrating the rise to power of these Jihadi forces. Hence, Israel’s actions in Syria, denying these Jihadis access to both Mount Harmon and advanced weapons systems and stock piles abandoned by the old regime, should be viewed in the light of Israel acting in its own interest.
One thing more to highlight here, whereas Iran represents a much greater threat to Israel’s existence due to their extensive oil assets, proxy armies, and advanced nuclear program, we should not mistake these Jihadi forces in the Islamist realm of Syria as being “not a serious threat to Israel”. Recall that this was the accepted perspective with regards to Hamas, which could have gained a far greater advance into Israel proper if they had had the discipline and training demonstrated by al-Golani’s forces in the past two weeks in Syria.
Indeed, al-Golani represents a serious mortal threat to Israel, and denying him the capabilities of being an ever greater threat of possessing the weapon stockpiles which Israel is eliminating should be understood to be consistent with Israel’s pursuit of a more stable and manageable threat from such a formidable force, even as it remains a lesser threat than that of Iran. If denying al-Golani these military assets brings about the realization of his true Jihadi nature, so be it, but he will do so with out the arms which are thankfully being put to the torch by the IDF at present.
Would you not agree?
It was necessary to separate from and oppose those who gave the name of “REBELS” to Fascist Scum
As in this
https://x.com/ricwe123/status/1866555648747372923
Hi, Adam. You said,
The Yom Kippur War was a very important event for Israel, for the US, for the whole world; and some pretty smart cookies were in charge of things back then. Even so, nobody knew exactly how things would eventually turn out. Don’t you reckon the situation is the same today? (Of course, you do — and I do too). Should Golda have struck a day earlier, and given Israel another great 1967-like victory? If she did, then Sadat would have lost face, and would have been assassinated BEFORE obtaining a valuable peace treaty with Israel — which then would have been distracted all these years by one Egyptian war after another. Neither you nor I know how that would have turned out.
I’m still trying to figure out what’s going on in Syria; but from what I can see, Turkey and its surrogates (well advised by the US Deep State and other nefarious actors) managed to get the initiative; and Israel and Syrian Kurdistan were left out of the loop. What these two have done, as a result, is behave reactively. I think that’s why the Kurds have done temporizing actions at the Euphrates and Israel has gone about blasting Assad’s stockpiles.
At the moment, there are two main interest groups in Syria:
1. Biden, the Deep State, NATO and Turkey, along with Russia and Iran who have been forced by circumstances to go along, and
2. The Western Kurds, Israel, and of course, 900 US servicemen who have been left in Syria as pawns by Biden.
Until things clarify, probably in a few weeks, I think this is the playbook we are left to deal with. If, by God’s grace, you and I are both alive then, we can discuss what has come our way then.
Shalom shalom 🙂
Israel’s behavior in Syria is almost incredibly self-destructive and stupid. They, Israel’s leaders, are doing exactly the opposite of what Mordecai Kedar advised them to do. Instead of attacking Iran, which is a mortal threat to Israel’s existence, they are sttacking HST, which is not a serious threat to Israel, and my even be a “tatical” ally of Israel, at least for the short run. The Syrian people gave every sign of being overjoyed by the overthrow of Assad and were treating the HST fighters as heroes for overthrowing him. At least for the time being, HST were heroes to them. By obeying State Department orders to attack HST, Israel has made an enemy of the Syrian people. And that certainly doesn’t bode well for the future.
Israel has a consistent pattern of making asinine decisions, blindly following “orders” from the USG, going all the way back to 1973 when Israel yielded to American pressure not to ‘pre-empt” the Egyptian Syrian attack, Since the, they have acted repeatedly on “orders” from the USG to do what the State Department (wrongly) thinks is in America’s interest, but no in Israel’s interest.
According to Isaiah 17:1, Damascus is ripe to fall. The story spread around is that it will fall in one night, which sounds very much like a nuclear explosion. It is very unlikely that Israel will do this dirty deed, but maybe Iran needs revenge for something.
Turkey should be ousted from NATO. Israel should be on alert as erdogan has already threatened Israel. He might try to invade or attack Israel.
https://thechesedfund.com/lemaanachenu/leah?aff=sl26.11eb