Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
Before burying the Assad regime and prophesizing that it is only a matter of days or weeks before Assad disappears, it is essential to understand the reasons for his survival until now.
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Forty years of Alawite dominance in Syrian politics have created strong bonds and coalitions between the Alawite ruling elite and political forces which see their fate linked to the demise of Assad, such as the Christian, Druze, and Assyrian minorities as well as some Sunnite elites.
President Bashar Assad’s inner circle, led by his brother, Maher, commander of the Syrian Army’s Fourth Division, along with some of the Alawite elites, strongly believe that the regime should keep on fighting. Among the senior Alawite officers there is an understanding that if Assad goes, there will be a bloodbath against the Alawites. This group is pressing Assad to fight on.
Working in favor of the regime’s survival are the divisions within the opposition. As much as two-thirds of the forces of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are considered to be Islamic jihadists who are striving to establish an Islamic state in Syria. The FSA behaves as a guerilla force. Most of its brigades number no more than 300 combatants, which is the largest field formation they have succeeded in deploying on the ground.
Since the beginning of the conflict, support of the Assad regime by Russia and China has served as an active shield against all attempts by the West to force a political solution on Syria through a decision by the UN Security Council, similar to the ones in Kosovo, Libya, and Afghanistan.
Iran and Hizbullah have been providing the Syrian regime with assistance to quell the rebellion. Iran has mainly provided intelligence tools and equipment, while Hizbullah has sent its troops into Syrian territory in the Homs area, opposite northeastern Lebanon. These two allies understand that the Tehran-Syria-Hizbullah axis is at stake, and they are doing everything in their power to maintain Assad’s position.
The writer was formerly Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.
@ yamit82:
I call the sheep,”the-as-a-Jews”, AS a Jew I am against gun controll,Isaeli policies,Romney, etc etc. I think you get the idea.
We should wish both sides the maximum of success. If possible, they can extend the action to Jordan where the Hashemite King is definitely unwelcome
@ Max:
If he surwive do not retire him on an island like Elba so he can return
@ yamit82:
Good comment.
And of course it is never over til it’s over. Throughout history battles have been won against adverse circumstances and with superior generalship or even just plain luck.
The history of WW2 such as Midway makes one just gulp in horror.. for the luck of a hair or a gust of wind and over and over agai….
Assad and his minority ruling Alawites have no alternative to fight on till the last. They will be butchered afterwards no matter what.
UNLIKE JEWS: THEY WILL NOT WILLINGLY GO OUT LIKE SHEEP.
It ain’t over till it’s over and Assad might try to take others with him and shoot his arsenal of missiles with Chemical and bacterial weapons at Israel Turkey and Jordan. Just for the fun of it. Don’t believe a word the Russians claim, that they have secured Assad’s chemical weapons.
Comment # 1 in moderation.
“Working in favor of the regime’s survival are the divisions within the opposition. As much as two-thirds of the forces of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are considered to be Islamic jihadists who are striving to establish an Islamic state in Syria. The FSA behaves as a guerrilla force. Most of its brigades number no more than 300 combatants, which is the largest field formation they have succeeded in deploying on the ground.”
More like two, three hundred foreign fighters tops- but with leading and training many Syrian recruits from the local areas in the West part. Al Nusra’s control is only in the Western part. FSA numbers about 140,000 or much more.
Generally that is the proportions.
Where do the revolutionaries come from? From any local population that has gone the route from being terrorized and oppressed to protesting to being arrested ,shot, shelled and bombed. So of course any survivors of those areas are recruits for the revolution – that’s about 80 percent of Syria. In all these areas locals gather together in cells – stand in front of a free Syria flag, declare themselves against Assad, take pictures and video etc. then the cells consolidate, unite, send members for training ad so it grows.
The Col needs to be demoted to private for spreading misinformation. I suppose he thinks that it’s back like 20 years ago and no one else knows the situ and it’s easy to lie to the public. Sorry Col, Miltel liek this is available to commoners everywhere now – you are an anachronism.
“Forty years of” whatever , whatever – The reality of politics is forty years of training terror and murder SS type squads. They are keeping him alive but against an entire population they are not enough.
Of course Assad must fight to the death. He’s in the same boat as Saddam Hussein who said ” If my people ever catch me, they will tear me to pieces”.
Tyrants don’t get retirement villas – in their own countries anyway.