Deals to remove competing parties from election boomeranged against Likud, near-final figures show; Blue and White said planning interview blitz next week to claim victory
By TOI STAFF and MICHAEL BACHNER 20 September 2019, 9:50 pm
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, and Zehut party leader Moshe Feiglin at a joint press conference at Kfar Hamacabiah in Ramat Gan announcing Zehut’s withdrawal from the September elections, on August 29, 2019. (Flash90)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to remove two competing parties from the playing field ahead of last week’s election do-over backfired spectacularly, near-final results show, with the Likud — despite having absorbed the Kulanu party, and promised Zehut’s leader a ministerial post in return for dropping out of the race — winning 300,000 fewer votes than the three factions picked up separately in April’s vote.
In the lead-up to the elections on Tuesday, Likud absorbed Kulanu into its slate. Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon’s party had won 10 seats in 2015 and four in April.
Netanyahu also reached a deal with Moshe Feiglin, the head of Zehut, which won 118,000 votes in April but still fell below the 3.25% Knesset threshold, to appoint him a minister in his next government and work towards his agenda of cannabis legalization, in return for Zehut withdrawing from Tuesday’s vote.
Netanyahu took both actions in a bid to shore up support for Likud and avoid lost votes on the right.
But while Likud (35) and Kulanu (4) won a total 39 seats in April’s election, and Zehut was ostensibly worth another two or so, the three parties’ alliance turned out to be far less than the sum of its parts, with Likud mustering only 31 seats in Tuesday’s vote.
In terms of votes, the 1,411,157 that went to the three parties in April fell to 1,111,535 for Likud in September. Even on its own in April, Likud had won around 14,000 more votes than that. (The current official vote tally stood at about 99.8 percent as of Friday night, so the numbers could still change a little bit, but not by much.)
Commentators have speculated that some of those Kulanu and Zehut voters ended up voting for Yisrael Beytenu (which rose from five seats in April to eight on Tuesday) instead of Likud, while others may have switched to Blue and White. Indeed some of Zehut’s voters in April were likely traditional left-wing voters enticed by his pro-legalization platform, and may have gone back to supporting left-wing parties on Tuesday.
Related: Did Moshe Kahlon’s ‘sane right’ voters revolt against Netanyahu?
Meanwhile it is also believed that many Likud voters disillusioned by the often-ugly campaign and Netanyahu’s off-brand failure to secure a government after the April vote simply stayed at home.
For the first time in 10 years, Netanyahu also failed to win the so-called “soldiers’ vote.” This contingent of ballots cast in double envelopes to protect the validity of the vote is indeed mostly composed of members of the security forces, but also includes diplomats, handicapped citizens, hospital patients and staff, and prisoners. It is worth around 5-6% of the vote and has traditionally skewed to the right — but the centrist Blue and White won out in that ballot count Tuesday, just as it won more votes than Likud nationally.
Tuesday’s election failed to produce a clear winner. Both Netanyahu and Blue and White chief Benny Gantz seek to secure the premiership despite neither having a clear path to a stable governing coalition.
Channel 12 news reported Friday that Blue and White will launch an interview blitz by its leaders next week, as they seek to paint themselves as the clear winners of the election with a mandate to form a government.
Party heads will meet with President Reuven Rivlin on Sunday and Monday to give their recommendations on who should be tasked with forming the next government. It is not yet clear how many votes Netanyahu and Gantz will each have — and whether they even want to be awarded the task at this stage: many commentators believe the first person tasked with forming a coalition is doomed to fail, and both candidates may prefer to position themselves as second in line.
Israeli law allows three attempts at forming a coalition after the election, within three months’ time. Failure to secure a working government by the end of December will automatically trigger a third election.
The key figure in breaking the political deadlock is Yisrael Beytenu chief Avigdor Liberman.
Liberman has vowed to push for a “liberal, nationalist, wide” unity government made up of his own party, Likud and Blue and White and no religious parties. But Likud has ruled out a coalition that does not include other right-wing and religious parties, and Blue and White has said it will not join a coalition led by Netanyahu — a notion Likud officials have stated, at least publicly, is out of the question.
Liberman has not yet said who he will recommend to the president, and has stated that the party could decide not to recommend anyone. Yisrael Beytenu will meet on Sunday to consider its options.
Channel 13 news also reported that Likud had considered, then ruled out, a plan to try and coax two MKs from the right-wing Yamina party to break away from their faction in order to join Likud, which would have given it an equal number of Knesset seats to Blue and White at 33. It is at any rate questionable whether the two, Naftali Bennett and Matan Kahana, would have agreed to such a scheme.
On Thursday, the leaders of all the parties in the right-wing religious bloc signed a document pledging to recommend Netanyahu as the next prime minister and vowing to enter a coalition only as a single unit. The premier then called on Gantz to join a government that includes those parties, pressuring him to drop his demand for a “secular” unity government with Likud.
Gantz and other Blue and White leaders dismissed the offer, insisting that the next coalition must have Gantz as prime minister, not Netanyahu, and be committed to liberal policies on religious issues.
In a Facebook post Thursday, Liberman blasted Netanyahu and accused him of “deceiving” the public by proposing a unity government but conditioning it on the inclusion of the ultra-Orthodox and religious right-wing parties.
“As the election results begin to become clear, Netanyahu is working full-time on his new spin that will lead Israel to another round of elections in hope of getting a 61 majority for his dream government,” Liberman said. “Forming a ‘halachic bloc’ of 55-56 MKs for Likud, Haredi parties and messianics, and calling on Benny Gantz to join a unity government with that bloc, is no less than deception and misrepresentation to lay the groundwork for a third election.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) greets Benny Gantz, leader of Blue and White party, at a memorial ceremony for late Israeli president Shimon Peres, at Mount Herzl in Jerusalem on September 19, 2019. (Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP)
“Netanyahu, who refuses to accept the public’s decision and admit his own defeat, is grasping at straws trying to create the impression that Likud supposedly won the election and called for a unity government and Gantz and Liberman thwarted that. In reality, he is continuing his attempts to persuade MKs from other parties to join him and the ‘halachic bloc’ he formed.
“I again urge the prime minister to stop the political games, tricks and stunts. Let’s sit down — you, me and Benny Gantz — and form a broad national unity government for Israel’s future.”
With over 99 percent of votes counted, the Orthodox/right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu has 55 seats, the centrist/left bloc led by Gantz has 44, and Yisrael Beytenu holds the balance of power with eight. The predominantly Arab Joint List, which has not said whether it will actively back Gantz, has 13 seats.
Bibi certainly made a series of disasterous tactical mistakes during the campaign. His and Likud’s support for a bill to install cameras in cameras in Arab (or all?) polling places, the Likud’s later call to photograph everyone coming into Arab polling places, proved a great talking point for the pr-PLO parties to bring out the Arab vote in force. His constant public quarrel with Yamini, and vice versa, in which they talked about each other as enemies, certainly didn’t help either. Neither did his public bad-mouthing of Otzma.
Still, the fact that he lost his cool and showed signs of panic doesn’t excuse his numerous enemies for putting so much pressure on him, including the trumped-up criminal charges, that he cracked under pressure and began making poor decisions.
@ Edgar G.:
Otzma got less the 2% of the vote they needed 3.25%. They wasted a seat or two that could have been achieved had they agreed to join Yamina. It would not have brought the right to power as things stand now.
Nobody I’ve seen has yet mentioned Otzma, who wasted tens of thousands of votes for the Right. Wing by their unrealistic optimism, rather stubbornness. .To bank on a BARE pass, the minimum 4 seats in an unreliable poll was the height of…….I don’t want to say it.,
Their withdrawal may have made all the difference.
@ Bear Klein:
Well, your comment is reasonable to assume, and very likely the factors you present were the cause. I was entered my post originally just co correct your assertion , , by pointing out a “clerical” error, which does not affect your conclusions. Then I just went on from there to other unconnected items,
Rivlin will do consultations with parties live on online. That is a first I believe and certainly could change the dynamics and even the recommendations.
@ Edgar G.:Part of the reason the Arabs came out in greater numbers was ALSO that there WAS ONLY ONE Arab party on the ballot this time (last time there were 2) plus Meretez was no longer attractive to some to vote for because Ehud Barak was part of the party now. So there was not only one reason for increased Arab vote plus shift of voting in some cases.
Some Arabs have indicated they came out because of Bibi’s Arab bashing. That is certainly how the Arab party leaders are playing it up in interviews.
Anyway thanks for presenting your viewpoint.
(?)@ broseman:
I saw a report that there were 7400 (?) Haredi in the IDF last year, and more are doing non-combat duties. As well, they are ncreasingly coming into the work force, including the women. The IDF has announced that they need far fewer Haredim than are eligible. and in fact have been reducing the numbers of IDF personnel.
I think that Lieberman is flexing his muscles in the suddenly important position he finds himself in The politician’s DREAM…. He is insistent on having Chazar sold publicly. as well as other things anathema to Haredm. Also there’s been an increase in Aliyah from Russia…
We have to wait and see how it will all play out. Netanyahu is not in his usual brilliant form. He is being weighed down by the unceasing vitriolic attacks on he and his family.
@ Bear Klein:
If the Arabs were coming out in answer to that Netanyahu warning (which, by the way, was valid- although not to the extent mentioned) it would have been in the LAST election. Your other points I agree with, Except that if there is a 3rd election I suggest that Likud and Yemina will regain the lost ground , caused by their poor tactics. Shaked is not a good campaigner, she becomes strident, and loses her composed balance which it what attracts the voters and admirers. Bennett lost votes with that surgically arranged “map” of the “organs”, with their connecting arteries. Even assuming that it might be part of Trump’s Plan, it would be suicide for Israel to accept it, and Israel would NOT.
The suits against Netanyahu may become public, and the public will at last see how paltry the “evidence” is, Mandelbilt’s position in this may be exposed, it is clearly political, and dishonest. David Levin, the American Video Host, last week, put it very succinctly and without frills. He is also a lawyer of note and has held important US Government posts..
Just my opinion.
This from the Jewish Press (New York). Revlon had earlier promised to wait for the official returns to come in from the CEC on September 25 before beginning consultations. Obviously he’s changed his mind. This is the night of the living dead for Israel. Blue and White has acted immediately to install the “Israeli Palestinians” in the heart of the government. They have responded positively and unanimously to his offer. And Rivlin has decided act immediately as shadchan to bring them together, violating his earlier pledge. Reminds me of the risqué couplet: “She offered her honor, he honored her offer, and all through the night he was on her and off her.” It is Israel that is being screwed. Odeh, Gantz, Lapid, Rivlin and Leiberman are all participating in the gang-bang. May God help us all.
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@ broseman:A few thousand Haredi have volunteered to be combat soldiers actually.
Personally I think you should provide them more carrots than sticks for true military or alternatively as you point out national service. I also think it should be easier for them to go to work or university study and not have to stay in yeshiva’s when they do not want to. Getting into the financial system as paycheck earners and off the welfare system is just as important for Israel.
Pragmatic approach actually would have more them assimilate into Israel society at large. The coercive approach will not work. It just creates more division.s
The largest “trashing” of votes are those of millions of Religious Diaspora Jews. By remaining in exile they are to blame for any progress towards a Torah state in Israel.
The growing ultra Orthodox segment seems to be a major sticking point. On the one hand they increase the population of Jews while Jews are dying off or intermarrying in the Diaspora. I assume some ultra Orthodox children assimilate into Israel. But service in the Army doing something, anything Medic, KP, clerical seems fair. Good luck to Israel. What a mess.@ Bear Klein:
Analysis of the vote is starting: One The turnout was larger than expected: Surprisingly the pollsters were in the ballpark.
1. Arab voters came out in 10% larger numbers due to the fact they had one list now which the Arab voters like plus Bibi may get some credit when trying to get out his voters by yelling Arabs are out to destroy us he pissed off the Arabs and they went to the polls. More Arab usually vote for some of the left wing Jewish parties like Meretz but NOT this time.
Bibi and the Likud lost voters for a variety of reasons. One some of the voters switched to Blue & White because they believe Bibi is guilty of the crimes alleged against him. He lost some voters to Liberman because of his message about the draft and being tied at the umbilical cord to the UTJ/Shas.
If there is a third election the Likud will loose even more seats.
The Likud MKs would be wise to find a way around Bibi and make a deal with Blue/White in a unity deal that appoints Gideon Saar (or other Likud choice) as the Prime Minister for minimally half the term of the government.
“Here’s another fine mess you got me into.” Ollie