Israel inside the OODA Loop: Roll or get rolled.
THE OPTIMISTIC CONSERVATIVE 14 March 2024
Some things are very simple to see, if they’re just illustrated. That’s why this update should be short. What we will see is the impact on Israeli security policy of the expanding rush to send aid to Gaza by sea.
The rhetorical focus of public discussion on this topic is always “humanitarian aid.” That practice, adhered to with iron discipline, effectively obscures the competing problem of keeping arms from flowing to Hamas by sea – a problem Israel has addressed with uninterrupted enforcement of a maritime blockade of Gaza since January 2009.
In my last article, we looked at the potential complications the Biden administration’s plan for a temporary pier in Gaza would pose for the blockade. There’s a humanitarian-deliveries exception to blockade enforcement: although a blockade is supposed to be enforced impartially and without interruption if it is to be accepted as “in force,” the humanitarian exception is allowed. No media outlets have addressed the point, or indicated that it’s a factor in negotiations for the seaborne delivery route, but we can assume Israel is making an exception, and has no intention of ending the blockade.
I remained skeptical, however, that there was no interest among other parties in undermining the blockade. For one thing, doing so would facilitate the flow of whatever Hamas supporters can sneak into Gaza.
But for another – and this one’s more important – third parties getting tactical footholds in Gaza will start to undermine every aspect of Israeli security policy and planning in Gaza. And in the short time since President Biden announced the temporary pier plan last week, there’s been an immediate move to jump into Gaza with another tactical foothold. It’s been a gee-whiz moment: my, weren’t they hyper-ready with that one.
Just a couple of days ago, it was reported that there’s a plan to bring in an NGO aid ship from Cyprus at a “jetty” in Gaza.
On 14 March, a fresh report highlighted a discovery from satellite imagery: a new jetty is under construction on the Gaza coast, just south of the original Gaza City port.
So that was quick.
The effect of this, if unaddressed, will be to give the third parties a de facto vote on what Israel does in Gaza in the coming days.
We have known for a long time that such third parties (mainly the EU, the UN, and the U.S. under Biden) want to have exactly such influence in Gaza and the West Bank. There have been various proposals in recent years, during the Obama and Biden administrations, for arrangements to use outside security forces as guarantees for a “two-state solution.”
Israel sensibly wants to be the chief negotiating partner and decider of what, if anything, will be acceptable along these lines from an Israel security standpoint. An effect of the Gaza blockade has been to ensure third parties can’t come in and start sticking things all over Gaza that will undermine Israel’s security, by preempting Jerusalem’s sovereign right to make those decisions in good-faith negotiations.
An interesting aspect of the new jetty is that Israel presumably had to authorize commencement of the construction. Israel may be performing the construction; that isn’t quite clear yet. The prior negotiations for food aid ships to be brought in from Cyprus are a known quantity, a process in which Israel has been involved. So the opportunity has been there for the Israelis to green-light this suddenly emerging project.
And in that light, it’s equally interesting that just a couple of days ago is when the government in Jerusalem announced a decision to “flood Gaza with food aid.”
If any food is actually to reach Gazan civilians, rather than being snagged instantly by Hamas and its gangland henchmen, Israel will also at some point have to establish enough control of Gaza to ensure stable conditions.
And if third parties are going to start showing up offshore with meals-on-keels, that point will have to be pretty soon.
A rapid thinker might survey this whole situation and suppose there is method in Netanyahu’s madness.
To the maps and pictures.
Here, we have the state of play for the U.S. temporary pier off Gaza. Sealift ships and Runnymede-class large landing craft boats are leaving Virginia for Gaza as we speak. The sealift ships that are leaving or have left should get there by about a week after Easter. They’re facing transit time of somewhere between 21 and 25 days.
The large landing craft reportedly will be taking a “southern route” across the Atlantic. I expect that to mean island-hopping to get them to (probably) the Canary Islands as their last way point before entering the Mediterranean. (It’s not entirely clear what “southern route” means. It’s possible they will make the shortest jump between South America and Africa, and head around Southern Africa to enter the Med through the Suez Canal. At least one of the boats participated in an exercise in the Middle East a few years ago and apparently used that route.)
In either case, their transit will take somewhat longer than the sealift ship(s) proceeding independently. They won’t get to the Eastern Mediterranean until later in April.
The large landing craft are to be used as utility craft for tasks around the temporary pier.
The next map shows the relatively clean situation of the blockade since January 2009.
The next map approximates where the Biden administration is likely to set up its temporary pier, the timeline for which is being discussed as 60 days in most treatments, but has also been suggested to be substantially longer (potentially up to six months).
Six months. https://t.co/tIGJpk02ZC
— ThunderB????, Avenge Them (@Pimpernell13) March 10, 2024
Google map; author adaptation/annotation.
When the temporary pier was the only one known to be in prospect, a certain limited but very real impact could be anticipated for Israel’s enforcement of the blockade.
However, the jump-out of the new jetty suddenly being built causes a second, and earlier, blockade-affecting feature to appear on the Gaza coat. It’s associated with the initial NGO aid ship from Cyprus, which is to seek arrival long before assembly of the U.S. pier has even been started.
Google map; author adaptation/annotation.
It wasn’t clear why Israel was making a sudden move to flood Gaza with food aid, when it was announced on Wednesday 13 March.
Now it definitely looks related to the preemptive move with the new jetty and the plan to start moving food by sea from Cyprus long before the U.S. pier is up and running.
Google map; author adaptation/annotation. Pubic domain and social media images.
One question we should have is how much of a consideration the blockade was for the Biden administration’s move with the temporary pier. At this point, it’s obvious Biden’s negotiators knew that the announcement of the U.S. pier would open the door for the ready-loaded first shipment from Cyprus. They knew the chain reaction would be set off, and there’d be a new jetty and new ship traffic starting now, as opposed to months from now.
But the other question might be even more interesting. The Israeli negotiators had to know the same thing. The prospect of a collapsing environment for blockade enforcement means they basically have to get control of Gaza before the situation becomes unmanageable there.
Are they getting rolled by the shipborne aid plan, now bolting out of the gate? Or have they outsmarted it?
You decide.
Feature image: An Israeli boat patrols the coast of Gaza. Times Radio, YouTube
The Democrats and Media are Openly Backing hamas
https://open.substack.com/pub/lel817/p/the-democrats-and-media-are-openly?r=1q2uiq&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
@Laura
I find it interesting that he is not actually running from his former statements but rather openly acknowledges them as best they might be explained. Importantly, as a member of the House, he will have little real authority beyond that which is granted to him by the party, so I would not be too greatly concerned about how he will vote.
Regarding if we should give him the benefit of the doubt, I would argue that we should give him the benefit of the primary, where he will continue to be challenged on this point which he claims to have made a full 180 degree flip in twenty years. Both he and his opponents will reveal themselves on this topic. Whereas I wouldn’t necessarily disqualify all support for Hamedeh, I would be quite interested in who his opponents might be and what their positions are on this and other topics, to be honest. Going from being a Arab advocate of Corbyn and Galloway to being a major figure in MAGA is going a good distance, but to be fair, the same could be said of clinicians and others who once placed full trust in the medical community, conservatives who once believed that the Rep party was supportive of conservative values, or Americans who accepted that American liberties were non-negotiable. So in the past twenty years, there have been a great many changes among people on a variety of views. Still, if there were a candidate who had the same appeal and convictions which Hamedeh currently espouses without the Corbyn supporting background, I would honestly choose the other fellow. It will be interesting to see what AZ chooses, but unless I am mistaken, he will be an easy win.
He Once Thought Israel Did 9/11. Now He Says Jews Would Have ‘No Bigger Ally’ If He’s Elected To Congress.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/he-once-thought-israel-did-9-11-now-he-says-jews-would-have-no-bigger-ally-if-hes-elected-to-congress?utm_medium=email&utm_source=cnemail&seyid=124934
Do you guys think he’s sincere? Should he be given the benefit of the doubt?
Israel’s situation has become critical. The one aspect of its anti-Hamas policy that has at least some minimal effect in limiting Hamas’ access to military supplies, the blockade by sea, has now been “neutralized” by the U.S. and its satellite states. Obviously, Israel cannot win the war in Gaza before this seaboen “humanitarian aid” arrives. It seems that Hames and the PLO have won. All of the soldiers have heroically given their lives to protect Israel since Oct.7 have been betrayed. Israel’s future, with both Hamas and Fatah armed and ready to roll, looks bleaker than ever.
The question is how these useful idiots will react if their people on the ground or on the ships become collateral damage. Apart from that, how about some humanitarian help for Israelis?