Shifting alliances in the Middle East

WJC ANALYSIS

By Pinhas Inbari

A week ago, Hamas’ weekly newspaper ‘a-Risala’ published an analysis of the incoming US administration which focused on the implications of the appointment of Chuck Hagel as the new secretary of defense. While the article realistically suggested that Hagel would not cut off America’s strategic relations with Israel, it raised the hope that this eventuality would happen one day.

Hamas believes Hagel would not permit Israel to launch another attack on Gaza, similar to Operation Cast Lead and Operation Pillar of Defense, and would also stop Israel short of attacking Iran. In the article’s concluding sentence, the writer expresses his hope that the Israeli-American alliance will disintegrate as a result of Hamas’ policy.

The source of Hamas’ expectations from the new administration is its conviction that President Obama will not abandon his belief in Political Islam, i.e. allying with the Muslim Brotherhood against the Salafists and al-Qaeda. Furthermore, Hagel’s past declarations tell Hamas that he will bring a more favorable approach to the ayatollahs’ regime in Tehran. As Hamas is a Muslim Brotherhood movement and an ally of Iran, these two characteristics of the incoming defense secretary give its leaders a hopeful outlook on the future of US policy in the Middle East.

That is also the reason why anti-Muslim Brotherhood regimes in the region may negatively evaluate the incoming administration. The outgoing administration has already ruffled feathers in the region by privileging the Muslim Brotherhood over Salafist and al-Qaeda actors. In Syria, Secretary Clinton, as a reaction to the assassination of the American ambassador in Libya, quickly began to lend support to rebuild the Syrian opposition leadership in the form of a new ‘coalition’, which installed a Muslim Brotherhood leader, Muadh al-Khatib, at its head, and, at the same time, distanced all Salafists/al-Qaeda elements from the leadership echelon.

However, seeing that al-Qaeda’s Nusra forces in Syria have become a de facto military arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, Clinton stated that the United States should consider re-shifting its focus away from the Middle East and toward the Far East. A few days ago, the administration declared it would support Japan in its dispute with China.

While Far East nations are receiving some support from the United States, the Gulf States are in an actual state of panic. Two weeks ago, the United Arab Emirates uncovered two Muslim Brotherhood terror cells that were planning a takeover of the oil-rich State. The emirates blamed the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood for orchestrating the plot. The Persian Gulf states suspect that Egypt, instead of focusing on reforming its economy, will try and overtake the Gulf’s finances in order to climb out of the financial abyss.

With the United States sticking to the pro-Brotherhood Political Islam policy, the UAE is left to wonder how to defend itself against this newly formed alliance. Zahi Khalfan, Dubai security chief, has already suggested that the Gulf would create an alternative alliance with Russia and China.

January 24, 2013 | 52 Comments »

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50 Comments / 52 Comments

  1. @ mr Ross,

    If you’re in a tunnel,and you see a light ahead,
    It could be “the light at the end” or a train coming at you.
    We disagree on what that light is.
    For you all indications are it’s the light at the end.
    For me everything indicates it’s a train.
    It looks like a train,it smells like a train,it sounds like a train.
    And it’s approaching fast.

    No one as blind, as one that doesn’t want to see.
    No one as deaf ,as one that doesn’t want to hear.

    What building 7 is for 9/11,is the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Eugenics for the Holocaust.
    If you refuse to seriously study these impossible anomalies,you’re blind and deaf.

  2. @ Vinnie:

    “I really think he is capable of this.”

    I agree that this guy is entirely capable of it.

    However, the same personal vanity that MAKES him capable of it

    — will also tempt him to overplay his hand once too often.

    Then we’ll nail his hide to the barn door (‘mmm, ahem. . . uh, politically speaking, of course).

    “The readiness is all.”

  3. @ Bernard Ross:

    “Sec of state is kerry but policy is really made in the WH. State is a basket to carry water.”

    Don’t think so, Bernard.

    For major items, policy is made at Foggy Bottom

    — viz., by the State Dept bureaucracy (not SecState, but the lifers): which watches administrations come & go, but itself remains behind to pursue its own agenda throughout (and continually amass organizational power all-the-while).

    It’s the transitory SecState who functions as the “basket to carry water” — and on behalf of DOS, not WH.

    Sound rather perversely like the ‘tail wagging the dog’? — you betcha.

  4. @ Vinnie,

    7 years.
    The cabal doesn’t behead.
    They use Eugenics.
    Georgia guidestones.
    Codex Alimentarius.
    Ecoscience(Cass Sunstein)
    Agenda 21.
    Bill and Melinda gates foundation.
    Rockefeller foundation.
    SV-40.
    MSG.
    Fluoride.
    Aspartame.
    Mercury,Aluminium,Formaldehyde in vaccines.
    Chemtrailing.
    Wheather modification.
    GMO.

    Sleep well.

  5. @ shachalnur:

    Where are you writing from? Have you ever even BEEN to Israel?

    “Zionism is ugly”??

    Have you noticed what is going on in Egypt, Syria, or Iraq lately? Was the Taliban “beautiful”? I know someone who worked in Saudi as a project engineer, happened upon a beheading there, which is quite common in those parts, couldn’t sleep for three nights afterwards, it was so “beautiful”…what with people dancing on the blood afterwards and shouting “Allah akhbar”.

    But, per you, I’m sure Arab/Moslem backwardness and bloody-mindedness can all be traced back to some nefarious cabal of Jewish bankers…

    …kindly return to the underside of the rock from whence you came, willya?

  6. shachalnur Said:

    You simply refuse to go to the grain.
    Kaiser Wilhelm institute for Eugenics,Anton Chaitkin(jew)”Rockefeller,Nazi’s ,the UN and Mass murder”.

    You simply refuse to provide evidence for any one thing which you have argued. Writing names and titles are not evidence in anyone else but your imagination. I challenge you to provide a link to an article which can be called EVIDENCE!!!!
    shachalnur Said:

    Why don’t you simply stop reading my rubbish?…Or did you find out that my theories and sources are not that incorrect

    I want to show that you are dishonest. You keep talking but provide no evidence. You have NEVER a link to an article which offers EVIDENCE. You provide names and websites as recommendations for accurate information which turn out to be spurious anti semitic sites. PROVIDE LINKS AS EVIDENCE FOR YOUR STATEMENTS OR BE CONSIDERED A FRAUD.

    shachalnur Said:

    and you’re trying to suppress any dissident ideas?

    On the contrary, I always encourage you give your comments but I do insist on EVIDENCE!!!!!

    shachalnur Said:

    More proof of Israel quelling the war in Syria, read my comment on “blast in Iran nuclear instalation”.

    I carefully read your comment which contained many statements. Please identify the statement or statements which you consider to be “proof of Israel quelling the war in Syria”. I was unable to call even one of those statements “proof” or “evidence”. They are merely more statements.

    quelling present participle of quell (Verb)Put an end to (a rebellion or other disorder), typically by the use of force: “extra police were called to quell the disturbance”.

    proof [proof]noun 1.evidence sufficient to establish a thing as true

    evidence noun 1. that which tends to prove or disprove something

    Still waiting for something which qualifies as evidence to prove that “Israel is quelling the war in Syria”.

  7. @ Mr Ross,
    You simply refuse to go to the grain.
    Kaiser Wilhelm institute for Eugenics,Anton Chaitkin(jew)”Rockefeller,Nazi’s ,the UN and Mass murder”.
    More proof of Israel quelling the war in Syria, read my comment on “blast in Iran nuclear instalation”.
    I’m not Satmar,Neturei karta,etc.
    Why don’t you simply stop reading my rubbish?
    Or did you find out that my theories and sources are not that incorrect,and you’re trying to suppress any dissident ideas?
    My fear is that Jews and Judaism will be slaughtered again,because of total ignorance of what’s reality and what should be done to avoid it.
    “Never again”,and Judaism is falling into the same trap ,what tragedy.

  8. shachalnur Said:

    Example of how Israel Russia and Iran are quelling the war in Syria;…Today,First Patriot Missile arrives in Turkey to defend against Syrian attack(LOL)
    Debka;convoy with Iranians and Hezbollah blown up in Syria(Golan)…

    How is this an example of Israel “quelling the war”?
    shachalnur Said:

    Political Zionism’s creators financed and ran the ideological basis for the Holocaust(Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Eugenics).

    evidence please.shachalnur Said:

    Russia is holding Navy exercises of the Syrian coast

    sent to evacuate russian civilians and syrian elites.
    shachalnur Said:

    controlling paranoid brains,Jews or not,is a science

    Paranoia is diagnosed on the absence of supporting facts. Jewish “paranoia” is an intelligent and natural reaction to thousands of years of slaughter and swindling. It is this “paranoia” which leave the residue of the habit of fear and appeasemen.
    As you are an admitted descendant of Khazars perhaps you are unaware of the Jewish children of the diaspora being taught Hebrew, torah, history and culture while praying “next year in Jerusalem” for 2000 years while being slaughtered and swindled. and all this before modern political zionism. The worst kapo jews are the naturai karta and true torah jews against zionism who cavort with hamas, ahmdinejead, abbas, etc. They are worse than the leftist kapos as they are aiding the enemy to kill Jews using the torah and G_d’s name.

  9. shachalnur Said:

    What happened to the 20 million Jews that are “missing”?….When I asked this question on Veterans Today,they had trouble answering this.
    Only one showed up and wrote that Jews are infiltrating non-Jewish circles to take them over.

    your friends at veterans today would be happy to be rid of a few more million jews. Are you asking them what happened so as to have them search for the assimilated jews and root them out for slaughter as did the nazis?
    shachalnur Said:

    While they keep you busy ,giving you totally skewered Hasbara, making eggs out of an omelet,they are slaugthering all of us.

    Why are you helping them, and who is “us”?

  10. shachalnur Said:

    There is a very clear and described way to get back to Israel,and you’re throwing away the Torah,Maimonides.
    Don’t mess with the Rambam,I like the man.

    are you a naturei Karta or a true torah jew against zionism?

  11. shachalnur Said:

    the aim of Zionism was to destroy European judaism,move the young to Palestine by force,and sacrifice the rest.

    you conveniently omit the 2000 years PRIOR TO MODERN ZIONISM whereby jews have been slaughtered and swindled in Europe. Any road out of that shithole should have been welcomed.

    shachalnur Said:

    Zionism is so ugly that jews refuse to identify with it,and prefer to assimilate

    perhaps it was the 2000 years of jew slaughter which made them run and hide. Jews were assimilating, where allowed, before zionism. However, families with hundreds of years of conversion were still slaughtered in the holocaust. They were not able to appease the devil by separating from Judaism much like those who wish to separate from Jews publicly today will not escape the next slaughter. The naturei Karta and true torah jews against zionism will be the first to go. No one likes kapos and traitors even those who use them. Dancing with hamas and pointing out the evil “zionists” will not save the obvious traitor jew from extermination. They will not be able to run to Israel, the Jews will have had enough of kapos.
    shachalnur Said:

    Once Zionism has died,and there’s enough Jews to tell the story,I expect most Jews to de-assimilate.

    Haw, Haw, Haw, ludicrous. when they are nnot trying to escape the nazis they are trying to escape the crazy lunatic kapo jews who are using the torah to escape the crocodile and point a finger at their fellow Jews. The muslim will not need the trees and rocks to call out that “a jew is hiding behind them; to come and kill them” because the kapo naturei Karta and true torah jews against zionism will happily do the job of pointing them out.

  12. @ mr.Ross,
    Example of how Israel Russia and Iran are quelling the war in Syria;
    Today,
    First Patriot Missile arrives in Turkey to defend against Syrian attack(LOL)
    Debka;convoy with Iranians and Hezbollah blown up in Syria(Golan)
    Is it true?

    Iran says that attack on Syria is attack on Iran.
    Ehud Barak says,diplomatically,that Israel won’t go unilateral against Iran.
    Russia is holding Navy exercises of the Syrian coast.

    Every action by the Bankers is countered by the non-banker controlled countries.

  13. @ Yamit82,

    Jews world wide in 1945; 13,5 million.
    Jews world wide in 2012; 13,5 million.

    Based on Jewish birthrates world wide since 1945 there should be at least 33 million Jews.
    WHERE ARE THEY?
    Are only the “Real” chosen Jews left?
    You are representing less than 20% of all Jews that should have been visible today,based on jewish birth rates since ’45.

    Political Zionism’s creators financed and ran the ideological basis for the Holocaust(Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Eugenics).
    Religious Political Zionism is a contradictio in terminis.
    There is a very clear and described way to get back to Israel,and you’re throwing away the Torah,Maimonides.
    Don’t mess with the Rambam,I like the man.

    What happened to the 20 million Jews that are “missing”?
    When I asked this question on Veterans Today,they had trouble answering this.
    Only one showed up and wrote that Jews are infiltrating non-Jewish circles to take them over.
    Well you know,at least he was consistent in his hate.

    This is a serious point of discussion,and I found out there’s little written about it.
    And I hardly ever find any Jews aware of this,or offering an explanation.
    Yep,controlling paranoid brains,Jews or not,is a science.

    Come on,explain me where these Jews went,are they still Jews?
    One Jewish grandfather is enough to be a Jew like in Israel(and Nazi Germany).
    And what about the “Jewish Gene”?
    While they keep you busy ,giving you totally skewered Hasbara, making eggs out of an omelet,they are slaugthering all of us.

    Loved your version of the Independence war,by the way.

  14. shachalnur Said:

    One World Government,and the end to Judaism and Jews.
    When are you gonna learn there’s a diffirence between bankers ,jews and Zionists.
    Not all jews are Zionists.
    Where are the 20 million Jews that disappeared since 1945.
    Zionism is so ugly that jews refuse to identify with it,and prefer to assimilate.
    Once Zionism has died,and there’s enough Jews to tell the story,I expect most Jews to de-assimilate.
    We’ll start all over again,and Herzl ,ben Gurion,Weizman,Jabotinski and the other Heroes,will go into the dustbin of history,like Hitler,Himmler and Mengele.
    The longer this goes on ,the bigger the damage to Judaism,untill there’s no way back.

    Israel exists due only to the fact that the renascent Jewish State militarily defeated the seven Arab states (namely, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan Aka Transjordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Yemen) which, together with the Arab League’s “Arab Liberation Army” and local “Palestinian” militias drawn from Arab population centers throughout the western portion of Mandatory Palestine, had sought to annihilate the Jewish State, thereby igniting Israel’s War of Independence.

    Had a Sovereign Jewish State been in existence in 1938, there would not have been a Holocaust and such a county with a population of over 6-7 million Jews would have prevented the necessity for fighting the war in 1948 and most likely all the rest of our wars. While the State of Israel came into being too late to help most of Europe’s Jews it did save millions of others later and will in all probability be that which will save the rest of the worlds Jewish remnant in the future.

  15. shachalnur Said:

    Not all jews are Zionists.

    A Jew who is not a Zionist cannot be a Jew. Judaism is Zionisn. Political Zionism (The modern National Liberation Movement of the Jewish People) could never have existed without the “Next Year in Jerusalem” underpinning of Judaic memory kept alive in daily Jewish prayers and national yearning to return.

    May our eyes see Your return to Zion with love.

    The One who restores His Presence to Zion.

    May you build it up in our days an everlasting sanctuary.

    And prepare the throne of David your servant.

    May the Temple be built and the City of Zion be filled.

    And there we will sing a new song, and with joy ascend

  16. 2 mr. Ross,
    The bankers hyjacked judaism by creating zionism.
    European jewry was against this,because they knew the aim of Zionism was to destroy European judaism,move the young to Palestine by force,and sacrifice the rest.
    Herzl made it clear that Anti-semites will have to be the best friends of zionism.
    Who are these nazi’s to decide which jew lives and who not?
    bankers call themselves jews,in order to enslave jews with money ,power and paranoid chosen-ness.
    many Jews bought into this,and are now helping the Bankers to finish the job;
    One World Government,and the end to Judaism and Jews.
    When are you gonna learn there’s a diffirence between bankers ,jews and Zionists.
    Not all jews are Zionists.
    Where are the 20 million Jews that disappeared since 1945.
    Zionism is so ugly that jews refuse to identify with it,and prefer to assimilate.
    Once Zionism has died,and there’s enough Jews to tell the story,I expect most Jews to de-assimilate.
    We’ll start all over again,and Herzl ,ben Gurion,Weizman,Jabotinski and the other Heroes,will go into the dustbin of history,like Hitler,Himmler and Mengele.
    The longer this goes on ,the bigger the damage to Judaism,untill there’s no way back.

  17. Canadian Otter Said:

    The same policy of Disengagement he advocates would CERTAINLY bring about the catastrophe he fears and where Israel would find itself all alone. He just does not acknowledge the direct connection. Unbelievable!

    I read your link and although I agree re Barak’s perspective it is interesting to surmise what is behind some words. Sounds like the status quo but with the appearance of movement.
    On Iran:

    he didn’t envision Iran being halted via diplomacy, and that sanctions need to be “much more drastic.”…. It does not need to be “a binary choice” between Iran going nuclear or a full-fledged war, he said. Rather, he repeated, there could be a surgical operation, by which he said he meant “a scalpel,” not a “10-ton hammer.”

    On “peace”

    the Palestinians under leader Mahmoud Abbas may still not be “ripe” for the necessary compromises……
    some kind of conflict management, perhaps even “some kind of unilateral steps,”..
    It would help Israel dramatically if it could move forward with the Palestinians, he noted, but it’s not “the panacea.”
    “Who can guarantee that if we allow the Palestinians to establish a state we won’t find rockets there as well,….
    ,” there is no guarantee that there’ll be “enough unity of [international] purpose to translate it into action.“For us, that’s a lesson,”

    but what does this next statement mean?

    Israel was open to peace, he said, but with a finger “close to the trigger” — otherwise “we won’t be there, and we’re determined to be there.

    Of further interest, from the same article:

    President Shimon Peres asserted that global companies are replacing the role of governments. “Forty global companies have more fortune than all the governments in the world,” he pointed out, going on to say that global corporations are answering the expectation of individuality which defines the younger generations. “Young people are not satisfied by the attempt to be equal,” he said. “They are satisfied by the attempt to be different.”
    Peres described the three themes he believes will define the next generation. First, national governments, because they cannot run economies or companies, will be relegated to simple husbandry of the state. Second, there will be continuing empowerment of global corporations that will handle global investment and innovation. Third, deeper understanding of the human mind will help people to make better decisions.

    although I disagree with much of Peres” approach, his global position has left him with a door to what the “elite” have in mind.

  18. yamit82 Said:

    It’s a backdoor taxpayer subsidy to Americas Arms Industry and American taxpayers should be told the truth.

    the real McCoy! It will be interesting to see where Hagel will fit into the feeding trough angles.

  19. shachalnur Said:

    The planned road of the US/Europe/Bankers is to throw the Middle East into turmoil.

    bankers= zionists= jews,etc. in corroboration of your theories: a quote from abbas 1984 book, which he is again now recycling thanks to your repetition of jewish conspiracy theories. You are in good company; take heart, from small acorns might oaks do grow.

    “The Zionist movement led a broad campaign of incitement against the Jews living under Nazi rule, in order to arouse the government’s hatred of them, to fuel vengeance against them, and to expand the mass extermination,” Abbas wrote.”

    from the same site that Yamit referenced re egypts F-16 delivery:
    http://freebeacon.com/palestinian-conspiracy-authority/

  20. Perhaps the answer is somewhere else!
    Egypt could try to get planes from Russia or even China?
    Comrade Putin would love to undermine the willing US Pr.
    He was willing to be more flexible! Does anyone remember?

  21. yamit82 Said:

    “Egypt is a strategic partner with whom we have a long history of close political-military relations that have benefited U.S. interest,”

    are there an US bases in egypt like in Israel? I wonder what sort of close political-military relationships they are talking about other than than giving them arms and having the US taxpayer pay for it. I dont remember Egypt helping the US in any military adventure.

  22. Vinnie Said:

    But in the U.S. of today, with this president, with this media, it is quite possible.

    Anything is possible but I think this pres is first and foremost an opportunist puppet. His constituency wants to stay out of wars, wants to cut defense spending and up social programs and more importantly the elite of his constituency want to make money(their turn at the feeding trough). I doubt that hagel and kerry were chosen on the basis of Israel. I think running the US defense and state have a lot more on their agenda. He might damage Israel for not towing the line but a physical confrontation is unwise, lacking in strategy and unnecessary to achieve his goals. I believe they are making the changes they want by installing the MB in the arab govts and getting rid of the non players who are not on the “team”. The status quo in Isarel is suitable to them as always.

  23. Too many unknown to make any comments or predictions!
    How much will Pr. O Islamophilia affect his judgement?
    No one can claim to know.
    In the mean time, the West is financing massively the Islamic (Shia & Sunnis) war effort against the West thanks to our abuse of oil, gas and narcotics.

  24. @ yamit82:
    I was impressed at first by Ehud Barak’s admission of the obvious: If Israel is ever in serious trouble again nobody will come to its aid. However, in that same interview – after admitting the failure of the Gaza Disengagement – he reaffirms his belief that Disengagment from Yesha is a must.

    The same policy of Disengagement he advocates would CERTAINLY bring about the catastrophe he fears and where Israel would find itself all alone. He just does not acknowledge the direct connection. Unbelievable!

    He noted that he ordered the withdrawal from the security zone in south Lebanon in 2000, and Ariel Sharon pulled out of Gaza in 2005, and in both cases Israel had endured thousands of subsequent rocket attacks. “Who can guarantee that if we allow the Palestinians to establish a state we won’t find rockets there as well, half a mile from the airport or 10 miles from Tel Aviv?” he asked. And yet, he said, Israel must find a way to “put a wedge” on the slippery slope to a one-state solution….some kind of unilateral steps,” might be necessary. If Israel cannot separate from the Palestinians.” http://www.timesofisrael.com/barak-israel-learned-a-lesson-from-global-failure-to-stop-assad/

  25. State Department refuses to delay delivery to Muslim Brotherhood-run Egypt

    The State Department maintained in a January 8 letter to Inhofe that the arming of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood serves the U.S.’s “regional security interests.”

    “Delaying or cancelling deliveries of the F-16 aircraft would undermine our efforts to address our regional security interests through a more capable Egyptian military and send a damaging and lasting signal to Egypt’s civilian and military leadership as we work toward a democratic transition in the key Middle Eastern State,” the State Department said.

    “Egypt is a strategic partner with whom we have a long history of close political-military relations that have benefited U.S. interest,” said the letter, which was authored by assistant secretary for legislative affairs David Adams. “For the past 30 years the F-16 aircraft has been a key component of the relationship between the United States military and the Egyptian Armed Forces.”

    “Maintaining this relationship and assisting with the professionalization and the building of the Egyptian Armed Forces’ capabilities to secure its borders is one of our key interests in the region,” Adams wrote.

    Egypt needs these weapons for defense against________? 😉 (Yamit)

    If Congress approves the sale then they no less than Obama, our real enemy. There is no military need of Egypt for those weapons and certainly no economic Egyptian need. It’s a backdoor taxpayer subsidy to Americas Arms Industry and American taxpayers should be told the truth. At least the Saudis pay for their toys but Egypt gets them gratis.

  26. Iran in 2013: deal …or no deal

    By Naser al-Tamimi

    China’s precarious position

    The nominations of Charles Hagel for Secretary of Defense and John Kerry for Secretary of State hint that the new team favours diplomacy.

    Almost all of Iran’s oil exports now go to China, South Korea, Japan and India. The additional cuts Asian importers will make in 2013 would translate into a fall in sales of about 135,000 barrels per day (bpd), resulting in a loss of about $5 billion in 2013, according to Reuters calculations. Iran has a particular dependence on China, which now takes around one-half of its oil exports. Economic ties between China and Iran grew stronger over the past three decades. Bilateral trade, which was a mere $1.6 billion in the 1980s, reached a significant $45 billion in 2011, according to latest IMF data. The most important component in China-Iran bilateral trade is oil.

    Israel could complicate the whole picture as it refused to rule out a military action, although most analysts doubt it has the military capability to carry out an effective strike alone.

    Zbigniew Brzezinski, U.S. strategist and national security adviser to former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, reflected that sentiment when he recently wrote in the Washington Post that America should look for “some alternative U.S. strategic commitment, provide a more enduring and less reckless arrangement for neutralizing the potential Iranian nuclear threat than a unilateral initiation of war.” Interestingly, most of U.S. top military officers agree with that assessment. Speaking at the “American Security Project Institute” event in mid-January, 2013, Admiral William Fallon the former head of U.S. Central Command went step further than similar remarks by other U.S. officials, to say even only delaying the progress of Iran by several years would be difficult, potentially taking several weeks of sustained fighting. He added the “bottom line is it’s not going to be a one-time shot,” hinting at the Israeli threat to strike Iran.


    Read More Here

  27. @ Bernard Ross:

    Bernard:

    Obviously, they would not land in Israel. I could see this being staged out of Jordan, perhaps, or even without physically landing at all (I am aware of the relevant topographical obstacles). Supplies and reinforcing troops could simply be air dropped.

    You are right, on the face of it, that the U.S. public would be aghast at such a move to put U.S. forces in the battle sights of Israelis on purpose. But that notwithstanding, consider three things:

    First, please bear in mind that I consider this a plausible scenario only, not a concrete, “more likely than not” prediction. I can’t assign a probability to this, except to say that it is significant, but not overwhelmingly so. I’m just saying it COULD happen, and I don’t put it past Obama or the people around him at all.

    Second, again I stress, anti-Semitism (as manifested in modern anti-Zionism in this case) has a way of interfering with rational thinking. You must take into account the very deep level of antipathy Obama and other people like Hagel have for Israel. Obama doesn’t have to run for re-election, he HATES Israel, and if Israel appears on the verge of frustrating his aims against her vis-a-vis the Palestinians in a decisive and permanent way – i.e., by destroying the PA once and for all – I can easily see him flying into a rage, saying to himself and his staff, “SCREW ISRAEL, AND SCREW PUBLIC OPINION! ISRAEL’S SUPPORTERS HERE ARE JUST STOOGES OF THE ISRAEL LOBBY ANYWAY! WE’LL SHOW THEM NO MATTER WHAT THE POLITICAL COST! THOSE DAMNED JOOOS HAVE IT COMING TO THEM! SOMEBODY ELSE CAN PICK UP THE PIECES! I DON’T CARE!”

    Bernard, I am about the same age as Obama and went to school with many like him. I really think he is capable of this. Remember also that this gambit would NOT be meant to succeed in a military sense. The IDF would still prevail, regardless. That is not the point. The point is to drive a stake through the heart of the U.S.-Israeli relationship, and in this, it would likely be quite effective at both ends. Consider Israeli reaction to such a blatant betrayal; would any Israeli leader following from this trust the U.S. to the degree needed to restore close relations?

    Third, there is the media here. They will trash Israel as much as possible. They will do everything they can to put public opinion behind Obama. They have done that thus far on EVERY issue, no matter what the public at large thinks, and they will do this here. If there are demonstrations in support of Israel, they just won’t report on them (this has already happened). Or, they will marginalize such supporters as a fringe element, and and/or portray them as traitors to the U.S. Most people will be too stunned and confused to react.

    Look at what Obama has gotten away with thus far. Did anyone bother to find out just what Obama promised Dmitri Medvedev, that would have to wait until after his “last election”, when he had “more flexibiltiy? Forty years ago, a U.S. president was driven from office over a botched burgalry at the HQ of his political opponent. Obama’s list of transgressions, including this one, is far longer and much more serious than any of Nixon’s shenanigans. In this case – the Medvedev incident – where the hell are the congressional hearings over this? Why aren’t journalists hounding him over this? So, he’s been “re-elected” (in a rigged election, I’m sure); he can now “deliver” on whatever this was, and it will be years, if ever, before the public ever finds out what this was comprised of.

    Yes, Bernard, at a rational, logical level, in something like a “sane” world, you would be absolutely correct, that putting U.S. forces in harm’s way on behalf of the Palestinian thugs should be consigned to the realms of wacko, “Turner Diary” types. . But in the U.S. of today, with this president, with this media, it is quite possible.

  28. shachalnur Said:

    eventhough Israel,Iran and Russia are doing all they can to quell this war.

    What is Israel doing to quell this war?
    shachalnur Said:

    The planned road of the US/Europe/Bankers is to throw the Middle East into turmoil.

    possibly(dont know about the “bankers” though). Turmoil has been a general state of affairs in the ME ever since???????? Perhaps it is the natural state of affairs for the area; considering the peoples, culture, history, non productivity,etc. If there is a planned road of creating turmoil then what is the goal, to what end?shachalnur Said:

    …or breaking the “Alliance”.

    What alliance, is it a riddle??
    shachalnur Said:

    The plan to control the Muslim Brotherhood is failing(Arab Spring),mainly because the “Streets” keep them in check.

    Give examples demonstrating that the “plan” is failing and give examples that the “streets” are keeping the MB in “check”
    shachalnur Said:

    the US and Europe will turn their backs on the Middle East.

    Is this a negative?
    shachalnur Said:

    …doing “nothing” will lead to a big war.

    Without ourside meddling Israel would have resolved the problems.

  29. Vinnie Said:

    The only scenario where I can see Obama ordering U.S. forces into a direct confrontation with the IDF is one in which there is a big Intifada in J&S, during which the IDF moves to decisively crush the PA, as in elimating them as a political entity…..If Israel attempted this, I can see Obama ordering material support for the PA, such as flying in supplies and perhaps even special forces “advisors” or U.S.-backed mercenaries. In this case, the IDF would be faced with the requirement to interdict such support, resulting in American body bags courtesy of the IDF.

    Which landing facility would they be able to land at within Israel for hostilities with Israel? If outside Israel how would they get into west bank? Entering into a military confrontation with Israel, endangering US soldiers lives for what purpose? US public would not accept this as a reason to endanger soldiers lives. They hardly accept Iraq, and afghanistan, Syria and Libya whereby they have accepted that there are terrorist entities who have attacked the US. It took 9-11 to accomplish public grudgngly accepting those wars.

  30. Obama has other options than “attacking”Israel or breaking the “Alliance”.
    Nato and it’s partners are still pushing Syria,eventhough Israel,Iran and Russia are doing all they can to quell this war.
    The planned road of the US/Europe/Bankers is to throw the Middle East into turmoil.
    The plan to control the Muslim Brotherhood is failing(Arab Spring),mainly because the “Streets” keep them in check.
    If the war from Syria spills over to Lebanon and Israel,the US and Europe will turn their backs on the Middle East.
    Mutual destruction,and easy pickings for the US and Europe afterwards.(Leon Strauss-Chaos Theory.)
    Obama will do “nothing” like the last 4 years,and doing “nothing” will lead to a big war.

  31. I give the U.S.-Israeli alliance no more than a 40% chance of surviving Obama’s second term.

    Yes, Congress and most of the U.S. public supports Israel, but large segments of the U.S. national-level government (e.g., State Dept., Pentagon, along with the current serving administration), most of the major national-level and much of local print and broadcast media, and academia, are thoroughly corrupted in an anti-Israel direction by the Arabs and in some cases, even the Iranians. I don’t see how this can be reversed; it only seems to get worse with each passing year. And, it should be remembered that for most of those segments of U.S. society that support Israel – Congress, the public at large – there are other priorities ahead of Israel. Most Americans in the street certainly favor Israel over her adversaries and wish her well, but this is not something they think about very much or very deeply. This leaves those who care about Israel a LOT – in a negative way – free to pursue their agenda with little public interference. The last four years of Obama has demonstrated this dynamic very well. And now it is going to get worse than ever before.

    Obama’s primary foreign policy goal, around which just about everything else revolves, is to force a Saudi-style “peace” [read: surrender] plan down Israel’s throat, that will lead to the slow dismemberment of Israel as a viable state.

    To this end, his primary element of leverage is the threat of an imminently nuclear Iran. His ideal scenario is to delay/prevent an Israei strike until Iran has progressed to the point where Israel can no longer mount such a strike…but the U.S. still can. At this stage, Obama presents Israel with an ultimatum: “…sign here on the agreement we dictate with the PA, or we let Iran go nuclaer”.

    If Israel balks, Obama & Co. believe that Iran can be contained, and that in any event, a nuclear Iran is mostly Israel’s problem, not the U.S.’s. This is wrong on both counts, but anti-Semitism has a way if interfering with rational thinking.

    Further, if Israel balks, Obama will proceed to “punish” Israel for her “intrasigence” by cutting off U.S. aid, abandoning Israel in the UN, and generally supporting the “Rhodesia treatment” against Israel. She is to be isolated economically/politcally as a “racist/colonialist” state to be stranged. That is his plan.

    Many anti-Obama and pro-Israel people with whom I communicate – Israelis and Americans both – do not take my warnings seriously, that Obama means to, and will more than likely succeed at, destroying the U.S.-Israeli alliance. They believe the U.S.-Israeli relationship, despite Obama, is “unsinkable”. But to such people I pose this question: Who would have thought back in 1964, when France was delivering the last of Israel’s Mirage III fighters, that within three years from that point in time, France would abandon Israel completely?

    As to Iran, I believe that Israel has the basic means to carry out an effective strike, though with significant collateral damage. However, for such a strike to succeed, she must at least achieve tactical surprise. Given the massive portion of U.S. intel gathering resources aimed at Israel, as if she were some sort of adversary, plus the much-touted “close relationship” between the U.S. and Israel military (mostly to keep tabs on Israel’s military), it should not be hard for Obama to obtain warning for such a strike. And with this warning, it is virtually certain that Obama would tip off Iran to an impending strike, practically guaranteeing that it would fail.

    I saw Romney’s candidacy as the last clear chance to restore the U.S.-Israeli relationship to something resembling “normal” in a positive sense, to include suppport for decisive action against Iran. Now that Obama has been re-elected (in a rigged election, I would submit, but I guess this detail no longer matters here in the United States of Venezuela), Israel is somehow going to have to stop Iran on her own, and within the daunting context of having to overcome potential U.S. betrayal/interference as well.

    As long as Iran is dealt with, the rest of Obama’s potential threats to Israel are not likely to be of the mortal variety. As others have pointed out on this forum in the past, Israel is strong enough economically, and integrated enough with the rest of the world, that she should be able to survive any other pressure or hassling Obama can dish out. Israel can live without U.S. aid, and other major players on the world scene – e.g., India, China, South Korea, even Russia – benefit too much from dealings with Israel to seriously pursue isolating her politically or economically. The EU will likely go along with Obama’s game plan, and that will hurt Israel, but it should not be fatal.

    Israel will be driven east. I foresee Israel aligning with China at the expense of the U.S. as a result of Obama. This will, objectively, be a HUGE blow to U.S. interests, and this prospect MIGHT motivate saner heads in the U.S. to put brakes on Obama’s “screw Israel” campaign. This is why I think there is at least SOME chance that the U.S.-Israeli relationship will survive Obama. But I would hardly bet the farm on it.

    The only scenario where I can see Obama ordering U.S. forces into a direct confrontation with the IDF is one in which there is a big Intifada in J&S, during which the IDF moves to decisively crush the PA, as in elimating them as a political entity. This, outside of dealing with Iran, would be the most important action Israel can take for her long-term security, but as such – just like Iran – will be fiercely resisted by Obama. If Israel attempted this, I can see Obama ordering material support for the PA, such as flying in supplies and perhaps even special forces “advisors” or U.S.-backed mercenaries. In this case, the IDF would be faced with the requirement to interdict such support, resulting in American body bags courtesy of the IDF. This would be meant to spark public outrage at Israel in the U.S., justifying total abandonment by the U.S.

  32. I agree on that it is highly unlikely that the US will attack Israel. But it could cause indirect and severe harm. Depending on the type and depth of such harm, the US may then face something she may not want to face. Israel is small and the US is still formidable but attacking in any way Israel is not like fumbling about Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, etc.
    And the US military did not seem quite capable of attending to those primitive theaters.
    I hope Mr. Hagel and his associates keep their ill intents bottled… For everyone’s well being sake.

  33. The US would never, and I repeat never attack Israel despite what the black Nazi and his appointed Neo-Nazis might think of Israel. The majority of Congress and the US population supports Israel. I only left the US Army 2.5 years and the active duty service personnel who really did the fighting with very few exceptions greatly admired Israel, spent R&R in Israel and many had joint training exercise s with the IDF. Another consideration is the IDF is an infinitely more difficult potential opponent than Iraqi insurgents or the Taliban both of whom the US military really didn’t defeat. Israel has better pilots and better soldiers on average.

  34. Hagel is not sec of state but defense. He does not make policy on int relations. I think hagel is in there to cut pentagon spending and run the details. He may keep Israels defnse requests down. Sec of state is kerry but policy is really made in the WH. State is a basket to carry water and will kill off any competition for pres. I think Hilary was set up to be out of the running for pres in 16

  35. “My reply was….etc.
    Sorry about that…the iPad did it…
    That’s why I prefer my trusty lap top…
    A well….

  36. @ Andy Lewis:
    Agreed. M reply Washington actually more of a ‘thinking out loud’
    Nonetheless, i do hope that since bastard seems to try to emulate PRESIDENT Lincoln, he should ’emulate’ him ALL THE WAY
    Now that I think of it…he also seems to think he’s JFK….
    Same Rx.

  37. @ Andy Lewis:
    you mean u.s. would ACTUALLY ATTACK israel???
    i really feel slightly scizophrenic now…a part of me REFUSES to believe (because of the americans that i KNOW) while the other part is pointing out to the sob husein,hitlery, valerie jarrett, and now this turkey hagel…
    i think yamit posted a link in the past of us plans to ATTACK ISRAEL IN ’67…i admit to not have opened it…
    being in denial… big time!

  38. Hamas believes Hagel would not permit Israel to launch another attack on Gaza, similar to Operation Cast Lead and Operation Pillar of Defense, and would also stop Israel short of attacking Iran.

    I get that sense as well – that the Obama/Hagel Axis would take military action if necessary to stop Israel from protecting itself. Is that too alarmist, and if not, how does Israel reapond?