T. Belman. This is credible. Netanyahu was ready to accept the Kerry Framework with some reservations. So not much divided Netanyahu, Livni and Herzog. Let us assume that Obama bettered the Framework to encourage this government to form. We know that Obama has also been protecting Israel at the UNSC. If everyone is in agreement save for Abbas, they will ram the deal down his throat.
In Feb 2014, I wrote The US should cut a deal with Israel and end the conflict.. I never imagined that Netanyahu would cut a deal so close to the’67 lines. This deal would have been under negotiation since the breakup last March. That perhaps explains why the freeze has remained in place and why Yaalon allowed the Arabs to build in Area C.
One more thing. Though Netanyahu said that he didn’t agree to a freeze, he imposed one defacto. Similarly, though he rejected negotiations based on the division of Jerusalem and and borders along the ’67 lines plus swaps, he nevertheless negotiated on that basis. There would have been no sense to negotiations otherwise. The fact that he was ready to accept the Kerry Framework says volumes even though he also said that he had reservations. My guess is that the reservations like the rejection of a freeze and the declaration of Jerusalem as the undivided capital of Israel, were for local consumption.
The Israeli government has traditionally been headed by one of the two rival mainstream blocs, the right-of-center Likud or the left-of-center Labor, excepting for unity governments in times of crisis and one case of a rotating premiership. Neither bloc has ever achieved a majority for forming a cabinet without a cluster of small factions.
This time may be different, DEBKAfile’s political sources report. The opinion samplings taken privately by party strategists indicate a close run in the March 17 general election between Binyamin Netanyahu’s Lilkud and Yitzhak Herzog’s opposition Labor, since he formed a partnership with Tzipi Livni and her small Hatnuah. Likud stays marginally ahead with 23-24 (out of 120) Knesset seats compared with Labor’s 20-22.
Instead of engaging in the excruciating, separate horse-trading for a government coalition after the elections with a bunch of small factions, Netanyahu and Herzog appear to have found common ground on the broad lines of a power-sharing partnership.
Most significantly, this partnership would enable them to disempower Naftali Bennett’s hard-line Jewish Home (16-17), Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu (sinking to 7-10), Kahlon’s new Kulanu (8-9) and Yair Lapid’s Future (plunging to 6-7). It would also reduce the bargaining power of the ultra-religious bloc.
Netanyahu has avowed an ambition to reduce Israel’s fragmented political scene to major blocs.
The backdoor negotiations between the prime minister and opposition leader are not face-to-face, but through a mutually trusted go-between, revealed here byDEBKAfile as the Labor leader’s brother, Brig.-Gen (res.) Michael Herzog.
In the early 2000s, Mike Herzog was head of the strategic section of the IDF’s Planning Division. His career included service as aide de camp of Shaul Mofaz, then defense minister, and chief of staff of another defense minister, ex-leader of Labor Ehud Barak, who was later prime minister.
From May 2009 to March 2010, M. Herzog acted as special envoy in the efforts of Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak to resuscitate peace negotiations with the Palestinians. The prime minister also attached him to his personal envoy Yitzak Molcho with the US team that held talks with Syria from December 2010 until the onset of the civil war in March 2011.
The Labor leader’s brother is currently a fellow of two American think tanks, The Jewish People Policy Institute and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, through which most of Israel’s top intelligence and security officials have passed at some time. He is therefore a familiar figure in the circles that count in the American and Israel capitals.
Towards the end of last year, Netanyahu, who was then building up to calling a snap election, again added Mike Herzog as a secret envoy to Molcho’s quiet contacts with the Americans and Palestinians. He was also involved in diplomacy on behalf of the prime minister on other strategic matters, including the Iranian nuclear issue.
In the last couple of weeks, Mike Herzog has redoubled his efforts to build a bridge between his brother and the Likud leader and made headway in three spheres:
1. In the last week of December, Netanyahu and Yitzhak Herzog launched a rare joint initiative to recall the Knesset for legislation to raise the minimum wage in the public and private sectors.
2. The two leaders have stopped trading personal abuse. Livni keeps up a shrill offensive against Netanyahu and the Likud slate elected in the party primary this week. The circles around them comment: “She’ll soon catch on.”
3. The prime minister accepted the new Labor joiner, the respected economist Prof Manuel Trachtenberg, 64, as finance minister in the new post-election government. Born in Argentina, the professor has a PhD in economics from Harvard and specializes in technological innovations. While a strong free market advocate, he opposes cartels and monopolies. In 2011, the government put him in charge of a team for resolving growing social unrest over income gaps and he proved receptive to protesters.
The Likud slate elected in this week’s primary dropped the two most outspoken hardliners and will present the voter with relative moderates of the right-of-center, roughly positioned for their future portfolios in a potential unity government.
The steps taken so far in the direction of this partnership are tentative and preliminary. There are still hurdles to overcome, including, primarily, the outcome of the election – which party comes out first and by how many votes. Likud is holding steady in the lead thus far but still, Netanyahu’s loyalists may be required to sacrifice top ministries for the sake of unity with Labor.
And so claims by Naftali Bennett of the defense ministry, Israeli Katz, of finance and Miri Regev (Netanyahu’s only critic in the top five of the Likud slate) of housing are premature.
A tie between the two blocs could force acceptance of a deal to rotate the premiership between their leaders – two years each. Then the negotiations would come down to who goes first.
But for the volatile Middle East and turbulent Israeli party politics, ten weeks is enough to turn all these processes on their heads.
@ bernard ross:
If Debka put it out there must be smoke, one never know about fire with them. There was a rumor that they are a disinformation arm of the Mossad but if it’s true they have to show some credibility otherwise they will be discounted completely.
I predict there is a good chance the Likud can get trounced in the polls and if it’s true BB will try even at this early stage to cut bait. He has done it many times in the past and his word means drek even for a slime politician.
BB has never wanted to be in the clutches of any member of his coalition but above all not the right wing parties or even members of Likud. He plays divide and conquer very well. You forget about Kahlon. Whether he get 6-10 or 12 seats most will come from the Likud.
I can’t think of a sector here that the likud can appeal to.
Everybody is trying to get a piece of the middle which leaves the real right and non Haredi religious with Bennett and he will pick up a major share of new voters just turned 18 and those in IDF plus a lot of students non observant in addition to his natural constituency.. All this at the expense of the Likud because he he tacks to the middle who will lose his natural constituency or a lot anyway….
BB does not have a positive record and is where he is by default.
Fact a scared BB a paranoid BB will do anything rational and irrational to stay in power. His weaknesses make any scenario plausible. I still go with running scared but either way he will give up everything if he can get away with it politically.
@ Ted Belman:
It can be debka seeking clicks from headlines or a disinfo created from the left hoping to drive right wing voters from likud forcing likud to form a coalition with the left, reinvented as a new center coalition. If a rumor, it makes less sense to come from Bennett as bennett needs a strong likud vote to guarantee a right wing gov that allows him into the GOI. If a rumor it is from the left, possibly from Livni and the US. Debka was the prime carrier of the Saddam WMD removal to Syria “news” story.
Herzog/Livni would have most to gain from this, if a rumor, as Herzog would get a shot at a top position or PM guaranteed by such an alliance as opposed to being completely out. The same for Livni, Lapid and possibly even liberman who all appear now to be shot down out of the GOI without Herzog. Whereas, BB knows he can remain PM by staying with Bennett.
@ yamit82:
On the cntrary, read my post more carfully, it is the one of the most likely potectial scenarios I indicated.
bernard ross Said:
Right wing voters moving from BB to Bennett is natural as BB has not demonstrated a platform of the right. Therefore, from where can BB replace those votes: the center and center left. However, there is another scenario which involves BB realizing that even if he plans to form a coalition with Bennett he will need to draw more from the center and/or left to maintain his relative dominance in a coalition with Bennett and minor parties; he would have a more dominant outcome in this scenario forming with Benett than in the rotating deal with Herzog. Bennett would likely be satisfied without a rotating PM position. In my view the only reason for BB to seek a coalition with herzog would be to seek support for a planned peace deal from his own party, his own GOI coalition and a large majority of the Israeli public.
Therefore, if the Herzog deal is true a peace plan is on the table. If not true, then BB’s purges are primarily, and opportunistically, seeking to get more voters from the center to replace an erosion in his relative position with Bennett and retain his position as the top seat winner in that coalition. I would look at this time to what he is doing with the other parties in terms of negotiating future alliances. There should already be some inkling of this, and if not the Herzog deal has more legs.
I lean toward BB’s opportunism to want to remain as PM throughout the term but I cannot discount that he might have already an agreed peace “scenario” with the US, arabs, and abbas.
We both know that Debka travels between fact and disinfo.
@ Ted Belman:
I hope you and your source are correct. Some parts of the story are obviously not true such as a truce between Labor and Likud (they are verbally attacking each other). Would not be the first time a Debka story does not pan out.
talked to a key guy in Bayit Yehudi and he knew nothing of the rumor. Its strange that no one has picked this DEBKA story up. Very Weird.
I hope the rumour is not true but that does not make it untrue. I would think if Bibi can not get a coalition he likes mostly of the right, religious and Kahlon he could try a coalition with the Labor. It would not be the first time. Especially if he does not pickup the votes Liebermans party is losing.
@ bernard ross:
You discount that the so called rumor is not true????
I believe it is true. BB is an intrnal polling addict. I think he knows what suspect that the Likud could come up short in the elections and the left can we callled on to form a government. He would then attempt to hedge his bets.
Or if the Likud show poorly even though gaining a slight majority over labor/Livni the potential partners already fed up with him and distrustful of him might withold their support especially if Labor offers them more…
Then there is the Obama factor. BB know Obama will throw all the support he can in favor of Labor
BB is soooo Paranoid anything is possible and probable with him
Ted Belman Said:
The disintegration, or decrease in seats of the center right represented by the recent coalition will push on the fence and undecided voters to the center left who will tout themselves as the center. The rightist members of the coalition from likud etc will go to bennett. An increase for Bennett at the expense of likud will actually decrease Bennetts options for being in a gov. Bennett will need those to the left to enter gov whereas the new self proclaimed center can unite with anyone. The more right wing likudniks go to bennett the less likelihood of likud forming a gov with Bennett rather than to the left of themselves. Therefore, the purging of likuds right from likud increases likuds likelihood of a coalition to their left. Therefore, the new leftist, center left, center coalition led by Herzog gains. This makes the debka story possible.
If this story is true, or plays out, I will expect it to be touted as a unity gov representing the “overwhelming majority” of Israelis. If that is how it is presented I expect it will be because a “peace” deal is in the works that requires those opposed to appear as outsiders and extremists.
Purging likuds right and sending them to bennet makes no sense if BB expects to make bennett his major partner because he would be looking ahead to their seat count relative to each other. It also makes no sense unless he expects to pick up those seats from the fence sitters and undecided in the center. Therefore, so far, the indicator is likud moving to the “center” and a peace plan.
the question is where will the religious and small parties go. For BB to remain a big cheese with less seats he would need to have a deal with labor or try to form a coalition of small parties. In all cases BB will present himself as a centrist good at caution, security and stability inside a hurricane.
@ Ted Belman:Lieberman has been fighting Bibi publicly he could have leaked this stuff. Bennett would be stupid to do this now as it could backfire. Bennett and the Likud are not publicly fighting each other this election. Just the opposite Bennett has indicated in wants to a minister in a government headed by Bibi.
@ Ted Belman:
It could well be but that is part of the system here as well as in other countries as well.
Netanyahu so far has failed to deny it. I doubt that if it is a rumor w/o basis Bennett will risk such step.
Otherwise, it could be planted by foreign intelligence services.
Does anyone know if the report that US Consulate operatives pulled weapons against our folk is true or false?
@ ArnoldHarris:
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
It is obviously against interest to have this rumour spread now. Who can explain why it helps anyone but Bennett to spread the rumours.
@ ArnoldHarris:
Excellent. All three plausible scenarios.
From the top…
Netanyahu is always ready to betray. Given an option between acting up front on behalf of the Jewish people in Eretz Israel and cowardly fold, he will always fold.
His key allies or associates during his tenure have been.
Sharon, Barak, Livni, Weinstein, Livnat, Lapid, Shalom, Molcho… All w/o exception identified with Oslo and or “disengagement”.
Netanyahyu, Peres and Yechimovich, all in unison, declared their view that abandoning the Jews in Y & S to Abbas was an option.
Netanyahu is presently leading a virulent special “justice” operatives, selected by Livni, assault on the key leaders in Y & S.
Hertzog is a scion to one of the MAPAI “families”.
He is also a person who claimed protection under the equivalent to the 5th Amendment after serving as a straw man for cash donations to the Barak “non profit organizations”.
Netanyahu is highly inclined to indulge on expensive drinks, cigars…
And he is well formed second hand furniture salesman. A consummate speechster with a TV penchant.
He will betray on every subject. Iran. Illegal infiltrators, Y & S, local Muslims Arabs plans.
My guesses, not necessarily in specific order:
1) The rumors originated in the administration of US President Blacksnake Obama.
2) The rumor originated in the even blacker politics of the Knesset and political parties of the State of Israel.
3) Netanyahu, despite his enhanced likelihood of a post-Knesset coalition stronger than any in recent memory, is indeed plotting to join with his political enemies and to facilitate some Washington-mandated agreement that would reduce Israel back its suicidal and undefensible armistice lines of 50 years ago. “Peace in our time”, Neville Chamberlain called it in 1938. Except this time, he would be playing the role of Emil Hacha, who was forced by Hitler, Goering and their gang to sign over to the Third Reich whatever remained of Czechoslovakia in 1939. In which case, Israel would be doomed by actions of its own government.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
@ woolymammoth:
For those of us that enjoyed military service it is well known that if one, new in the camp, asks for directions to the latrines, he will be told by the veteran to keep on going forward and then turn…left. “KADIMA v’smolah” 🙂
@ woolymammoth:
She couched her critisism by allowing for the possibilty that it might have been “political theater” She can’t with him go all the way as she did with Olmert and Sharon, pers and Barak.. That’s the difference. Those she wanted replaced and out not BB.
@ yamit82:Yamit82 wrote, “… She has never criticized him directly in print…” ” In his first term in office she was a foreign policy adviser to BB and has been a cheerleader for him ever since…”
Caroline Glick wrote in 2010, “……Upon returning from Cairo on Tuesday, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu proclaimed, “It’s time to move the peace process forward.”
The most sympathetic interpretation of Netanyahu’s proclamation is that he was engaging in political theater. It was a low and dishonest statement uttered…”
“a low and dishonest statement”, published in the JP 2010. These words are criticism are they not. Neither are those the words of a “cheerleader”, at all, Yamit. She made her point and whether it was “Lite” in your view is immaterial.
She learned the hard way from her involvement with Oslo. She was forthright and honest about that. Have you read ALL of her columns, I have and I say she has guts, right or wrong and I would feel a hell of alot better right now if Caroline Glick were PM even with her lack of experience, she is intelligent enough to make due.
Bibi resign and get your fat keister out of town… along with the abused mule you rode in on.
woolymammoth Said:
If you calll that a BB rebuke, it’s a rebuke lite. That’s about as far as she seems willing to go in criticizing BB, slight rap on the knuckles with no sting, in place of a sledgehammer.
@ bernard ross:
@ bernard ross:
There is no left or right of center and there never was.
Anyone considered to be in the middle have no strong opinions on anything relevant here. In Israel the left and right are divided by positions re” security, the Palis and the land of Israel.
All other issues are a mixed bag of views.
A right winger is uncompromising on core issues. A left winger like wise. So called centrists are akin to a women being half pregnant or in worst case compromising towards the left and never the right.
Unless something happenens to change the game economy and social issues will dominate the elections giving the left an advantage because most people except the Wealthy oligarchs are happy with BB and the Likud performance and policies.
In such an election even traditional Likud voters might swing to a good pitch by labor and Livini.
Nobody in the almost impossible aevent that Bennett would poll the most, he has no one to form a coalition with and will be shut out himself in all likelyhood from ther government in the making. Since the religious will sit with anyone and so would labor and Leiberman the left could easily form a coalition.
The Likud with BB could fall to between 15 to 18 mandates unless security becomes the dominant issue.
@ yamit82:
Never meant to suggest Caroline Glick is the Messiah…LOL. She does communicate quite welI and has a way to get the word out..out about Paul Revere?
I picked a random column of Glick from 2010 entitled, A LOW AND DISHONEST DECADE. FRIDAY JANUARY 1, 2010;
…Upon returning from Cairo on Tuesday, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu proclaimed, “It’s time to move the peace process forward.”
The most sympathetic interpretation of Netanyahu’s proclamation is that he was engaging in political theater. It was a low and dishonest statement uttered at the end of what has been, in the immortal words of W.H. Auden, “a low and dishonest decade.”
Everyone with eyes in their heads knows that there is no chance of making peace with the Palestinians. First of all, the most Israel is willing to give is less than what the Palestinians are willing to accept.
But beyond that, Gaza is controlled by Hamas, and Hamas is controlled by Iran.
For its part, Fatah is not in a position to make peace even if its leaders wished to. Mahmoud Abbas and his deputies know that just as Hamas won the 2006 elections in Judea, Samaria and Gaza, Hamas would win elections today. To maintain even a smudge of domestic legitimacy, Fatah’s leaders have no choice but to adopt Hamas’s rejection of peaceful coexistence with the Jewish state.
Clearly, now is not the time “to move the peace process forward.”
No less than what it tells us about Netanyahu, his statement is notable for what it tells us about Israel. Our continued willingness to ensnare ourselves in the rhetoric of peace…” processes demonstrates how little we have progressed in the past decade…”
@ yamit82:
It appears that the center right is falling apart which although it can benefit Bennet, who can bennet form a coalition with if Likud moves left or suffers a large decrease like liberman did. So far liberman, livni and lapid were peeled off along with the likud right, it looks to me like Bennet must form to his left while BB can choose to form left right and middle. If the likud and center are fragmented and are weakened I expect the left to gain. I would expect the undecided middle to carry the day and a weakened and fragmented likud, though giving some to bennet might not allow bennett a coalition….???? It looks to me that both labor and likud want to woo the center undecided
woolymammoth Said:
Wrong Messiah. Glick is card carrying BB acolyte . She has never criticized him directly in print. In his first term in office she was a foreign policy adviser to BB and has been a cheerleader for him ever since.
@ bernard ross:
If Bennett runs a campaign like he spoke it will resonate at least among the young and new voters. He will take many votes away from the Likud. The Likud will fight back for every vote and that will diminish both camps.
Only the more obtuse and brain dead would consider the Likud right wing and not even right of center when it comes to Land of Israel issues.
I fear the real Israeli right will be sold out once more in the coming elections.
Ted Belman Said:
BB never stood alone in his perfidious decisions and miscalculations. He always needed figleaf suuport from the likes of Sharon to his right or Barak to his left. He never wants to take responsibility for his own incompetence and weakness Share the blame and take all the crdit it they seem to pan out is his MO.
Best if BB is not made PM even if the left wins.
If what Debka reports is factual, and Netanyahu has agreed in principle to a rotating premiership, he has sold us out lock, stock and barrel. That he would turn over the reins of power to Livni with Obama potentially still in office PROVES he has deceived his constituency and his country as a whole. I cannot see it interpreted any other way.
Well, at least the Israeli Electorate is long forewarned. They will be essentially voting for Hamas if they buy onto this poisonous concoction.
Time to bring in Ms. Fix It. Caroline, where are you??
Actually, BB’s stated platform has not been a right wing platform so I dont know why those on the right consider him a rightist. He is not pro settlement, he is a Two stater, he is open to give away sovereign parts of empty land in israel in exchange for already settled cities, he will negotiate and likely give away parts of jerusalem………….
If Netanyahu wanted to cut a deal with Obama close to the Framework, he wouldn’t need Herzog/Livni to help him. Any deal he accepts, they will accept. So why share the glory or infamy, if that is the judgement of the Israelis.
The story says Herzog has stopped blasting the Likud and Bibi. This does not bear out when reading the papers or listening to the news. This gives pause to this article. Maybe their are feelers but even Debka says this far from done deal.
In any case the more mandates Bayit Yehudi gets the potentially better off Israel will be potentially.
Anything is possible when it come to Netanyahu betraying one and all. It is intrinsic to him.
Ted is correct here. They ersatz ideology of those named ends with the threat to their knesset seats.
The last Likud palace revolt was during Sharon’s first term and forced him to dump Likud and form Kadima gaining over 40 seats as opposed to the Likud’s 12. Next Likud primary dumped almost all those involved in palace revolt.
The message has not been lost on Likud politicians. Most Likud voters to not vote likud based on any Land of Israel considerations only power and the perks that are divided among the loyalists close to the plate of giving.
The point is that even though the Palestinian Arabs reject any kind of peace deal with Israel, Israel can neutralize their political warfare by establishing a broad-based national government with a moderate face towards the US and Europe. The Arabs extremism is not going to get them a state. There is a broad political consensus in Israel about getting its own house in order and what makes such a coalition even possible is most people in Israel are sick of hearing about peace. Its no longer the divide it once was in Israeli politics.
I received the following comment from a very knowledgeable source.
I replied I think that most of those people voted for disengagement. Also they were with him when he supported the Kerry Framework.
But why would the story break now rather than after the elections. Doesn’t make sense. Debka gives no attribution either.