Scoop: Trump’s envoy meets Saudi Crown Prince MBS

Barak Ravid | Axios | Dec 13, 2024

President-elect Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff visited Saudi Arabia on Wednesday and met Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), two sources with knowledge of the meeting told Axios.

Why it matters: It was the first meeting between MBS and a member of the incoming Trump administration since the November elections.

• Trump appointed Witkoff, his best friend and one of his closest confidants, as his administration’s Middle East envoy with the clear aim of sealing a mega-deal with Saudi Arabia — a process that started during the Biden administration.
• Trump wants the deal to include a historic peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia and at least some progress toward ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, sources with knowledge of Trump’s thinking said.
• “I want a long lasting peace. I’m not saying that’s a very likely scenario … I want a peace where we don’t have an October 7 in another three years. I’d like to see everybody be happy,” Trump told Time magazine earlier this week.

Driving the news: Witkoff’s trip to the region was part of a series of engagements Trump’s advisers had with Middle East leaders in recent weeks.

• A source said Witkoff and MBS discussed the U.S.-Saudi relationship, the Gaza war, the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel and other issues.

Earlier this week Witkoff was in the United Arab Emirates for a crypto conference. Several months ago Witkoff partnered with Trump and established a crypto currency company called World Liberty Financial, Inc.

• During his visit to Abu Dhabi, Witkoff met with the Emirati national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed and discussed the war in Gaza, the turmoil in Syria and other regional issues, two sources said.

Trump’s Middle East adviser and in-law Massad Boulos was also in the region this week and met in Doha with the prime minister of Qatar, a source with knowledge of the meeting said.

• Boulos met last Wednesday in Washington, DC, with King Abdullah of Jordan, another source said.
• The same day Boulos and Witkoff met in Washington, DC with the Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, who is prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s closest confidant, an Israeli official said.
• Trump’s new special envoy for hostage affairs Adam Boehler is expected to visit Israel next week for the first time since he was appointed, a second Israeli official said.
• The Saudi embassy and the UAE Embassy in Washington, DC, Witkoff, Boulos and the Trump transition team declined to comment.

Catch up quick: Before the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, the Biden administration was negotiating with Saudi Arabia and Israel on a mega-deal that would include a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

• The White House also wanted the mega-deal to include a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty and an agreement on civilian nuclear cooperation between the countries and thought if it was part of a broader deal, the U.S. Senate might be more likely to ratify the agreement.
• MBS concluded a mega-deal would only be politically possible under a Biden administration.

• But the Oct. 7 attacks derailed the negotiations. The ongoing war in Gaza and Lebanon, and the resulting demand from the Saudis that the agreement include steps toward creating a Palestinian state, turned the deal into a non-starter for both Israel and Saudi Arabia in the near term.

State of play: The Saudi crown prince and his senior advisers said in private and in public in recent months that they are still interested in reaching such an agreement but reiterated Saudi Arabia’s one key condition: An Israeli commitment for an irreversible and time-bound path to establishing a Palestinian state.

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far refused to agree to this demand. The prime minister and his senior advisers think that under Trump and with Israel’s recent military wins over Iran and its proxies, the Saudis will drop their “Palestinian condition,” two sources said.

What to watch: In his interview with Time magazine, Trump did not express support for the peace plan he presented during his first term, which was based on a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

• Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies who is close to some of Trump’s foreign policy team, told Axios the President-elect likely will revive his “Peace to Prosperity” plan as a cornerstone of its Middle East strategy.
• “This is key for facilitating a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It could also enable the end of the war in Gaza, help implement a day after reconstruction and security plan with strong Gulf support,” he said.
• Trump was frustrated that he didn’t win the Nobel Peace Prize when he brokered the Abraham Accords, according to several sources. Dubowitz said a mega-deal with Saudi Arabia could position him for the prize.