If the Saudis are really prepared to go to war with Iran,then they would communicate with Israel for joint action rather than to write Israel off and go it alone. T. Belman
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 19, 2011,
After giving up on US and Israel ever confronting Iran, Saudi Arabia has gone out on a limb against the Obama administration to place itself at the forefront of an independent Gulf campaign for cutting down the Islamic Republic’s drive for a nuclear bomb and its expansionist meddling in Arab countries, debkafile’s Middle East sources report.
Two US emissaries sent to intercede with Saudi King Abdullah – US Defense Secretary Robert Gates on April 6 and National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, who arrived in Riyadh six days later – were told that Saudi Arabia had reached a parting-of-the ways with Washington, followed actively by Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman.
Abdullah said he could not forgive the Americans for throwing former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to the wolves in Cairo and for the unrest they were promoting against Arab regimes.
Saudi Arabia was therefore determined to lead the Gulf region on the road to a confrontation with Iran – up to and including military action if necessary – to defend the oil emirates against Iranian conspiracies in the pursuit of which the king accused US-led diplomacy of giving Tehran a clear field.
Monday, April 18, the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, asked the UN Security Council to take action for stopping Iran’s “provocative interference in their countries’ domestic affairs.” This “flagrant interference” posed a “grave security to, and risked flaring up sectarian strike, in the GCC countries.”
The resolution went on to state: “The GCC will not hesitate to adopt whatever measures and policies they deem necessary vis-à-vis the foreign interferences in their internal affairs.”
The phrase “measures and policies deemed necessary” is diplomatic parlance for a military threat. It implies that Saudi Arabia and the rest of the regional group are confident that together, they command the strategic resources and assets necessary for a military strike against Iran. Our military sources report that the Saudis are convinced that their combined missile, air force and naval strength is fully capable of inflicting in-depth damage on mainland Iran. Their message to Washington is that the Gulf nations are now making their own decisions.
Iran has taken two steps in response to the Saudi-led Gulf challenge: Thousands of Iranian students, mobilized by the Revolutionary Guards and Basijj voluntary corps have laid the Saudi embassy in Tehran to siege for most of the past week, launching stone and firebomb assaults from time to time, but so far making no attempt to invade the building.
Then, Saturday, April 16, the Iranian foreign ministry summoned the Pakistani chargé d’affaires to warn him sternly against allowing Saud Arabia and Bahrain to continue conscripting Pakistani military personnel. Tehran claims that by offering exorbitant paychecks, Riyadh has raised 1,000 Pakistani recruits for its military operation in support of the Bahraini king and another 1,500 are on their way to the Gulf.
Iran also beefed up its strength along the Pakistani border to warn Islamabad that if it matters come to a clash with Saudi Arabia, Pakistani and its military will not escape punishment.
King Abdullah first defied the Obama administration’s policy of support for popular uprisings against autocratic Arab regimes on March 14 by sending Saudi troops into Bahrain to prop up the king against the Shiite-led disturbances organized by Tehran’s Lebanese surrogate, Hizballah.
This force has been expanded continuously, split now between units suppressing the uprising and the bulk deployed on the island’s coast, 320 kilometers from the shore of Iran. Saudi ground-to-ground and anti-air missiles have been transferred to the Bahraini capital of Manama and naval units, including missile vessels, positioned in its harbor.
Monday, April 18, Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa announced that Saudi and allied GCC troops would stay in the kingdom until Iran no longer poses a menace. “Gulf force is needed to counter a sustained campaign by Iran in Bahrain,” he said.
Tehran-Riyadh tensions are rippling into other arenas: On April 11-12, the chronically disaffected Arabs of Ahwaz in the western Iranian province of Khuzestan (1.2 million inhabitants) staged a two-day uprising against the Iranian government. In their first crackdown, government forces killed at least 15 demonstrators before cutting off Ahwaz’s links with the outside world. Since incoming flights were cancelled, roads to the town blocked and telephone and Internet communications discontinued, no independent information is coming out of the province.
Tehran accuses Saudi and United Arab Emirate undercover agencies of fomenting the unrest in one of its oil centers.
So too does Syrian president Bashar Assad, who claims the spreading revolt against his regime, now entering its second month, was instigated from Riyadh.
debkafile’s Gulf sources report that King Abdullah has placed himself at the head of the Saudi-GCC political and military campaign against Iran. His team consists of Interior Minister, second-in-line to the throne Prince Nayef; Director of General Intelligence Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz; National Security Adviser Prince Bandar bin Sultan; Deputy Defense Minister Prince Khaled bin Sultan; and the king’s son, Commander of the National Guard Prince Muttab.
According to our sources, Riyadh has not just given up on American action against Iran but also despaired of Israel and its passive acceptance of a nuclear-armed Iran and the hostile military noose the Islamic Republic is drawing around its borders from Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and Syria.
In the view of Saudi policy-makers, the effect of the Stuxnet cyber war on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the targeted assassination of some of the program’s key executives has been overrated. They characterize the two covert campaigns as causing limited damage at first and then acting as a fillip for accelerating Iran’s drive for a nuclear bomb.
If Middle East oil becomes less available, the US and Canada can open oil production and exploration in their North, and be self-sufficient (at least until more reasonable regimes appear in the Middle East).
Prices may or may not rise, but in any case it won’t be a catastrophe. And if the Wah’habis et al. stop getting richer and richer off our money, which they have done nothing to earn and which they use against us, that would not be so bad either.
Seems to me that other than Bill Ford’s comment, the other comments don’t even see prophesy hitting them between the eyes when it stands before them with bells and whistles blaring. Now can anyone tell me when Ezekiel 37,38 and 39 will start to kick in after these Gulf machinations end??? Oh yes, HaShem is in control, otherwise how can you explain the rise of a mental case coming out of nowhere to become president of the USA and stirring the pot to setup the conditions for prophesy fullfilled?
“Finally, the only way the Iranians can avoid such an outcome is by a pre-emptive strike, which would immediately bring in the US, Western Europe, and the UN who would likely mount a combined op both to defang the Iranians and seize their oilfields.”
That may have been conventional wisdom once, but I wouldn’t count on it now. They can’t even take out Qadafi, or agree on what they are doing. The US, Western Europe and the UN have more in common with the Three Stooges than with the great powers they once were.
Finally, the only way the Iranians can avoid such an outcome is by a pre-emptive strike, which would immediately bring in the US, Western Europe, and the UN who would likely mount a combined op both to defang the Iranians and seize their oilfields. The Iranians know this.
Thus the odds favor a lot of bluster and no major armed hostilities, together with a lot of moving chess pieces on the board.
Remind anyone of China/Taiwan, or North and South Korea?
Further, the Syrians are prudent. With weapons flying they would not risk their own country by physically siding with the Iranians.
If the Saudis and the Iranians go to war, the Israelis will help the Saudis. Our genuflector-in-chief cannot blame the Israelis without alienating the Saudis further. As in the past, instead he is likely to join belatedly, and certainly not on the side of the Iranian Shiites.
Saudi King Abdullah is old and in fragile health — just like another former US ally, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. We have no assurance, one way or another, about his successor; but one thing is almost certain: The Saudis will not take lightly any Iranian inroads into the Arabian Peninsula. Oman has a history of Persian rule, but the Saudis of Riyadh are some of the most independent people in the world. The Arabs of Mecca and of Yemen have historically been in the Egyptian sphere.
The 3-way standoff in the Gulf, between the Americans, Iranians and Saudis, looks like the showdown scene in “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly“. I guess Obama (with his Big Oil six-shooter) thinks he’s Clint Eastwood. I wouldn’t bet on it. My guess, is that the skeleton in the grave will win the battle.
If Saudis and Iranians go to war, we need to thank who you know.
He must know what he is doing.
Then Israel will be accused of being responsible.
It is a no win situation!
the kingdom of the south stirs in preparation for action against the king of the north
If the Persians were to attempt to destroy Saudi oil fields it would be British, French, or American nukes over Teheran, not Israeli, followed by seizing Iran’s oil. The US may not be self-sufficient but it has enough supply and short- and long-term reserves to make things hard but not catastrophic domestically. And Iran’s oil used to be handled by “Anglo-Iranian Oil Services” so there is plenty of intel on the fields and terminals.
It could easily lead to the end of Shia Islam, which would be just fine with the Sunnis including the Saudis.
The Ayatollahs know this, and would be deterred by a threat to the extinction of their religion. If not …
Remember the lesson of Post-War Japan and the precipitous decline of Shinto.
What I don’t think many have thought about it is the possible ramifications of heated regional conflict in the Persian Gulf. Iran might just want to eliminate any “competitors”, essentially destroying the oild fields of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait etc. The immediate impact on Europe, North America and Japan would be devastating. I’ve heard some educated assessment as the forced return to an ecomony around 1870…
Finally I can see Russia aiding & Abetting from the sides with the same kind of cynical calculation.
Why does anyone think the Saudis are better than the Mullahs? Saudi oil rightfully belongs to the Shia tribesmen and eventually with Iranian help they will get their territory back, That’s why Iraq was important for Bush. (2nd largest oil proven reserves in the world). American oil companies wanted a piece of Iranian oil.
Saudi Arabians fear nuclear Iran not because it would attack the Saudis—Iran has never attacked anyone in modern history—but because its growing stature would stir up the Saudi Shia population, which dwells in the oil field region. Saudi Sunni Wahhabites stole oil from Saudi Arabia’s Shia citizens, and might be forced to give back the hoard if Iran goes nuclear. Is that good or bad news for international oil interests? Probably good, because Saudi oil production is state-owned and foreign corporations there receive moderate service contracts but not windfall concessions. If, under Iranian influence, Saudi Shia pockets become semi-independent, they would grant concessions to international oil corporations to make foreign governments accede to their autonomy. This is similar to Kurdistan. Instability in the Middle East generally, and particularly in Saudi Arabia, would send oil prices through the roof, contributing handsomely to corporate profits. Therefore US oil corporations prefer a nuclear Iran, even if it means war.
Without Saudi money, Islamic clerics worldwide will abandon Wahhabism. That will not end terrorism but will dry its religious support base up.
Obama is engineering a radicalized Islamic, militant Arab Middle East. Wherever possible he is paving the way for Iran.
The US President was caught on open mike on April 16’th 2011 venting his displeasure with Qatar’s ruler.
“Now, he himself is not reforming significantly. There’s no big move towards democracy in Qatar. But you know part of the reason is that the per capita income of Qatar is $145,000 a year. That will dampen a lot of conflict.”
With the highest GDP per capita in the world, why indeed would Qataris be interested in Saul Alinsky inspired social chaos and upheavals. The kind of reforms Obama’s adminstration has organized so far were the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the return of radical the Muslim Ganouchi for Tunisia, and support for Al-Qaida rebels in Lybia.
No wonder even the Saudis have become alarmed.
Obama is engineering a radicalized Islamic, militant Arab Middle East. Wherever possible he is paving the way for Iran.
The US President was caught on open mike on April 16’th 2011 venting his displeasure with Qatar’s ruler.
“Now, he himself is not reforming significantly. There’s no big move towards democracy in Qatar. But you know part of the reason is that the per capita income of Qatar is $145,000 a year. That will dampen a lot of conflict.”
With the highest GDP per capita in the world, why indeed would Qataris be interested in Saul Alinsky inspired social chaos and upheavals. The kind of reforms Obama’s adminstration has organized so far were the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the return of radical the Muslim Ganouchi for Tunisia, and support for Al-Qaida rebels in Lybia.
No wonder even the Saudis have become alarmed.