by Dr. Anna Geifman and Yuri Teper
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 194
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russian involvement in the Middle East is presently nothing more than an attempt by Moscow to hold on to its deteriorating position on the international stage. Russia’s support of the Assad regime in Syria has hurt its image and weakened its influence in other Arab countries. Although it will not be able to provide financial assistance, Russia may try to fill a vacuum should the US scale back its ties to the new Islamist governments in the region.
Since his ascent to power, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been eager to regain Russia’s previous influence in the Middle East. Being a mighty political force is an essential part of traditional Russian self-perception and is a cornerstone of Putin’s public mobilization strategy. Russia wants to have a say in the Middle East, as would any aspiring great power. Yet, Moscow’s assertive stance and militant rhetoric should not be misinterpreted; to a large degree, the Russians conceal impotence and frustration, results of its de facto inability to affect regional politics. The latest events of the “Arab Spring,” which have yielded power to various Islamist groups in the Middle East, only heighten this situation. Civil war in Syria and the recent Israeli-Hamas conflict elucidate this point.
Syrian Civil War
Syria has long been Russia’s closest ally in the Middle East, practically the only one since the end of the Cold War. Lacking the resources to make an impact elsewhere, Russia has maintained a close, though largely one-sided, relationship with Syria, based primarily on supplying Damascus with weapons. Syria paid back with promises of future economic preferences and provided the Russian navy with a maritime supplies base in Tartus, on the Mediterranean coast. It also fed Russian hunger for a great-power status, contributing to the illusion of Moscow’s regional influence.
Despite the central role that Syria played in Russia’s foreign policy, Putin’s efforts during the ongoing civil war in Syria have mostly been confined to diplomacy. Moscow provides President Bashar Assad’s regime with a diplomatic umbrella in the UN, protecting it from harsh resolutions and preventing a possible international intervention. However, it significantly lags behind Iran in helping the Syrian government suppress the uprising. Russia vocally protested against international involvement in the conflict, but has been unable to counter the assistance streaming to the rebels. At the same time, Moscow’s stubborn diplomatic support for the Syrian regime has taken a heavy toll on its relations with the rest of the Arab world.
Moreover, Moscow has apparently been unwilling to endanger its vital economic interests for a flimsy chance to influence the situation in the Middle East. Thus, despite opposing views on Syria, Russia and Turkey achieved a significant breakthrough on the construction of the South Stream gas pipeline to Europe. While Turkey is the second-largest consumer of Russian gas, after Germany, Russia is the weaker side in the relationship, dependent on Ankara’s permission to run the pipeline across its territory.
Operation Pillar of Defense
Russia’s relationship with Hamas began in 2006, after the organization won the Palestinian elections, and strengthened in 2007, when Hamas took control of the Gaza strip. Russia is among the few great powers that maintain official relations with Hamas and do not recognize it as a terrorist organization. In 2006, a Hamas delegation paid an official visit to Moscow and was received by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, thus gaining valuable international recognition. Since then, Lavrov has met regularly with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, who went to Moscow in 2010. Russian officials have justified their country’s position; they claim that having connections on both sides of the conflict will allow negotiation and constructive dialogue towards a resolution. They had previously applied the same approach in the Korean conflict, presumably aiming to maintain Russia’s international significance far beyond the country’s actual capacity to have an effect.
In practice, when the opportunity to make an impact presented itself during the last Israel-Hamas standoff, Russia stayed out of the way, confining itself to firm anti-Israeli rhetoric and empty calls for restraint on both sides. Speaking at a news conference after a meeting with Arab foreign ministers in Riyadh, Lavrov described Israeli actions as “disproportionate” and “entirely unacceptable,” while Putin called on the parties to exercise restraint. At the same time, Russia Today, Moscow’s official international satellite network broadcasting in English and Arabic, persistently aired vicious anti-Israeli propaganda, bordering on incitement.
These statements apparently reflect Russia’s desperate effort to mend its shattered image in the Arab world caused by its support of the Assad regime. Still, it was the US-backed Egypt which played the central role in achieving the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, reaping the benefits of international prestige. Russia did not have any role whatsoever, and during the whole crisis remained entirely irrelevant.
Conclusion
The oil issue is almost automatically assumed to be of pivotal significance for all players involved in the Middle East gambit, especially Russia, whose financial fortunes are directly linked to the fluctuations of oil prices. However, the traditional instability in the region, the latest shockwaves of the ”Arab Spring,” and the escalation of tension between Israel and Iran keep prices high without a special intervention from Moscow. Aside from this, Russia has little to gain from its involvement in the region, as its Middle Eastern politics seem to be more about pride than about financial gains.
Lacking the ability to impact the situation on the ground and losing last bits of diplomatic influence, Russia might be tempted to take a more adventurous stand on Middle Eastern issues in order to restore its ruined status on the Arab street. Yet, as long as the US maintains relations with the new Islamist regimes, Russia’s response will be mainly confined to the diplomatic realm. There is simply no space for the Russians in the new Middle East, as they have little or nothing to offer or contribute to the developing situation. On the other hand, should anything trigger a break in the fragile relationship between the Islamists and the US, and should the Americans retract their support, the Russians will be sure to jump in to fill the vacuum, seeking to regain influence – as they have always in the past – by supporting anti-American regimes. Unable to make serious financial contributions, however, they may try to compensate by offering weapons and diplomatic cover.
Dr. Anna Geifman is a senior research fellow in the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University and Professor Emerita at Boston University. Yuri Teper is a PhD candidate in political studies at Bar-Ilan University.
moderation 12 reply to shachalnur
shachalnur Said:
I have done everythng I could to get forum readers to read your sources.
shachalnur Said:
Actually, remember, it was veteranstoday.com idea. You remember, your site for good info where you read all the comments.
shachalnur Said:
Nope, I asked for evidence of that assertion. I asked you a number of times to support this and 2 more assertions you made. Haven’t got it yet.
shachalnur Said:
know these or read these but see no relation to the SPECIFIC ASSERTIONS WHICH YOU STATED AND WHICH I QUOTED AND TO WHICH YOU HAVE STILL FAILED TO ANSWER Just getting a lot of generic obfuscating hogwash.
shachalnur Said:
you mean your death squads from Gordon Huffy’s rag.
@ Herr Ross,
Stop wasting your time on me.
You refuse to go into the facts.
Your idea of an “israeli deathsquad “to come look for me,is atractive.
You shout “false” at the opinion and proof supplied by very respected Rabbi’s ,warning for the dangers of Zionism.
You keep going on about a site,with writers from all over the planet,Military experts,intelligence experts,thet predict developments 10x better than the official Zionist spin,and give real information about everything going on in the world.
You’re either an ignorant brainwashed Zionist cheerleader,blind to the real threat to Judaism,or you’re just some one who “feels” he has to protect other jews from reading stuff that might contradict the “official “version.
You want to know why Israel is doing everything to stop the toppling of Syria since June2012?
Figure it out yourself through ALL the sources I supplied you.
Building 7? USS Liberty? Suez war 1956? 20 million jews turning their back on Judaism since 1945 “in disgust”?
Now please ,send your deathsquad,to shut me up.
@ shachalnur: You said you like to read every comment on veteeranstoday. I just read the comments on the article “Declassified US Intel – Israel Always an Enemy”. The comments I read from “top commentators” were unabashedly jewish conspiracy anti semitic. Aren’t you afraid that coming to a jewish site and rubbing such things in jew faces might unleash an “Israeli death squad” against you? If I were those commentators, and believed what they believed, it would only be logical that they would be next on the list.
shachalnur Said:
While reading your referred link on the veteranstoday.com site, the same site which twice last week brought us
I stumbled on this next link entitle
some quotes in the article were
..
I now see there were about 8 of veteranstoday.com articles with these accusations last week and emaills circulating the same. In another article by the editor Gordon Huffy
I believe that pimping for this site, which is seeking to inflame genocide against the Jews, is one of the most despicable crimes against the Jewish people. That you have no shame in continuing to be part of this attempted pogrom shows your true color. That you come here to bait Jews shows a deep evil intent. shachalnur Said:
Let us hope the relevant “intelligence agencies” are collecting the URL’s of the genocidal collaborators for future operations.
shachalnur Said:
First, true to form, you have still left unanswered the questions I put to you in the last forum 3 times.
I went and read your link re Azer. & RMK which says little new. The one line reference to Israel was in keeping with veteranstoday.com saying as follows
@ Herr Ross,
The Caucasus,
Israel imports 30% of it’s oil from Azarbaijan,and is exporting 1,6 Billion Dollars in advanced weaponry back.
Azerbaijan is on the brink of another internal conflict that could set the Caucasus on fire.
Read “Preventing the coming U.S. disaster in the Caucasus” by David Bobajian.(he hardly mentiones Israel,but this is real information you never read)
These developments are 100 times more important to Israel than what the US or Europe says or wants.
If you can’t find it ,it was posted on Veterans Today a few hours ago.
That’s why so many researchers,journalists, Intelligence agencies,including Shabak from Israel,read every letter on Veterans Today.
Many commenters are jews and the discussion is tough and to the point.
You shouting “Nazi’s”,is the normal NWO troll behaviour to stifle discussion between people that have the beitziem to confront their “enemies”.
Building 7,remember?
Do you have the beitziem,or you’re just shilling?
Russia “takes responsability” for the Syrian Chemical weapons.
That means ,a NATO toppling of Assad is off the menu.
Obama withdrew his carriers from the Mediterenean.
Like I said before ,Israel doesn’t want Assad toppled,Nato and the US want that.
Israel and Russia have been close since Putin kicked the European bankers out of Russia.
Amos Gilad,last sunday,said” Syrians chemical weapons are safe”
Vice PM Moshe Ya’alon today;”No proof chemical weapons have been used ,as claimed by rebels”.
“the opposition has an interest in drawing in international military intervention”
The whole above article is a total psy-op.
Debka today”Iran uses Hezbollah”.
What else is new?
Israel wants to avoid Nato toppling Syria ,because that will leave Israel sitting duck to Hezbollah-Syria -hamas-third intifada attack .
Us and Europe are openly threatening Israels existence,therefore Israel allignes itself with Russia.
Turkey got their Patriots from Nato,Syria got Iskander missiles from Russia.
very bad news for Turkey,therefore no more warmongering from Turkey.
Russia and Iran’s position is getting stronger by the day.
Chess is a Persian invention,and World champs are usually Russians.
Israel will have no choice other than be friends with Russia and Iran,from now on,or face Hezbollah,SYria(chemical),Hamas and Palestinian Intifada 3 alone.
US and Europe will not lift a finger in the next war.
Time for Israel to offer the Russian Bear our services. For a price of course.
Russia’s declining fortunes in the ME offer Israel an opportunity to blunt what is rapidly coming down the Pike from Obama in 2013.
@ ArnoldHarris:
Previous well documented reports showed many camps of Sunni refugees in Jordan well-provided for and eager to return and fight but discouraged by the Jordanian Government. Now it’s changed, it seems, they are returning.
There were also unverified reports (to me anyway) of Western Governments (CIA and SAS) training rebel groups of maybe up to 3-4 hundred in Jordan – training in weapons handling,organization, communications etc.
Many well-off Alawites are leaving Syria now -slipping away if they can. It doesn’t seem quite likely they are running to Jordan which generally is anti-Assad.
All of those at Israpundit who have promoted the idea of an Israeli break with America and a turning toward Russia should keep the above in mind.
Which classification of Syrians are those who are running for the Trans-Jordan border? Alawites, or ordinary Sun’a? Apparently this makes a life-or-death difference in Syria.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
Poor Ivan. All those arms and no place to sell them?
Or maybe dangerous Ivan. Ivan will look for new markets.
—-)
The last article I read a few months ago, the Syrian refugees were in hundreds of safe camps not allowed to leave Jordan. They must have decided to let them through now.
Another sign the Syrpocalypse is near.
Thousands of Syrians leave Jordan for the front lines
Jordanian security officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk on the record, said that as many as 8,000 Syrians have crossed the border back into their home country in the past 10 days.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/thousands-of-syrians-leave-jordan-for-the-front-lines/2012/12/23/eeb4cabe-4aea-11e2-a6a6-aabac85e8036_story.html