Russia Winning the Economic War ; West in Private Discussions for Face Saving Off-Ramp

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June 5, 2022 | 3 Comments »

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  1. Hero of Ukraine authorizes execution of citizens in Mariupol.

    Anatoly Perets, a soldier of the 36th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, confessed to the criminal case on the execution of civilians in Mariupol. On June 8, TASS was informed by his lawyer Igor Vagin.

    “My client, Anatoly Vitaliyevich Perets, during the course of investigative actions with him, stated that he pleads guilty to the fact that on February 26, following the order of the battalion commander, Lieutenant Colonel Yevgeny Bova, he shot two civilians in Mariupol from the AKS-74M, which was issued by the captain Sergei Nikolaenko,” the lawyer said.

    https://scooptrade.com/marine-from-ukraine-confessed-to-shooting-civilians-in-mariupol/

    Such things are terrible to read, and I fully expect to read more such confessions of war crimes, but what is remarkable about this confession is that the individual uttering the confession is implicating his commanding officer in ordering this war crime, and his commanding officer is none other than Lieutenant Colonel Yevgeny Bova, who was captured in April and spoke quite openly of his disgust for Azov during a media interview following his arrest (link). At the time it was reported that Bova was a Hero of Ukraine award winner. I note that he is reportedly to have been so awarded because he is not listed on the Wiki page listing the award winners

    Perhaps Bova’s ommission in the list can be explained as a spelling issue, or perhaps Wiki was edited after Bova gave his scathing interview about Azov out of spite for his comments on Azov. Additionally, perhaps this is the reason for Perets including Bova in his guilt, or perhaps Bova’s guilt was the reason for his statement castigating Azov, to set himself above the actions of such villains. It should be noted that both Perets and Bova are members of the Ukrainian Marines, not part of Azov nor even part of the National Guard, ie they are part of the professional Ukrainian armed forces, making this war crime confession all the more profound. A Russian wrought confession can, of course, also not be ruled out – this is even more true if the confession was obtained by the DPR or LPR forces.

    These matters will not end well for many, and, given the he said-she said claims, many innocent men may be found guilty, even while some guilty men may never even be found implicated. Well, I leave it to the Russians to suss out some truth between these he said-she said defenses and the surrounding tragedies that do demand some level of justice. Of course, it would have boded well for the guilty and the innocent Ukrainians alike, had they a responsible govt which had acted to prevent this war from ever erupting, but to the great regret of Perets and Bova and many others, this was not to be. I suspect that the guilty and the innocent are likely to be judged under something close to the French standards of justice, guilty until proven innocent. Perhaps I am being too cynical in suggesting this, or perhaps I am just cynical enough to be correct. The reality remains that the victims of these war crimes do demand a reckoning, and those unfortunate enough to be implicated will likely bear a share in the misfortune meted out as justice, whether they are guilty or not.

  2. A blistering reproach of the Zelensky govt from a Ukranian reporter who has a staunchly anti-Russian perspective.

    Recently, I am often in Severodonetsk and its environs, and I am surprised by the repeated inadequate statements of some leaders regarding the operational situation in Luhansk region. On the day of President Zelensky’s visit to the Luhansk region, the head of the Gaidai Armed Forces announced the offensive and liberation of 50% of the city. Unfortunately, this information is not true.

    In war, the enemy must be misled, not its citizens. In this case, Ukrainian society should receive information close to reality, we need real victories, not fictional ones.

    The risk of self-deception in war is that then under the guise of false fabrications and unjustified optimistic statements adjust units, people, and make decisions in ways that also do not correspond to the situation. Stop these word games, you don’t have to.

    Ukrainian soldiers hold their positions in a difficult situation, and this situation requires, if not the whole truth, then at least the absence of lies. Otherwise, it is worrying whether managers understand what is happening.

    Two days ago, the enemy came out on the outskirts of the city, and now our troops are defending the Severodonetsk industrial zone and the adjacent quarter.

    Of concern is the regular message of the desired instead of the actual. In order to win real victories, it is necessary not to create air castles.

    This was written by Yuri Butusov, a reporter who wrote of his experience last November, prior to Russia’s invasion, that

    Today, on the day of the memory of the victims of the Holodomor, I must confess that it is possible that I was involved in the death of some people in the Donbass

    Butusov had filmed himself firing a 152mm Howitzer into the position of the defenders of Dombas, claiming his role in the bombardment of the Dombas was in his pursuit of winning ‘the war of independence’ from Russia. Butusov has an endless array of such posts demonstrating his stalwart advocacy of Ukrainian zealotry. Hence, this is the character and background of the individual publicly sharing this sharp criticism, rebuking the Zelensky govt for their deceitful claims that the Ukrainians had retaken part of the city, providing a sense of humiliation and self contempt upon the troops described with these reports of false valor. Indeed, it appears that Zelensky was visiting the troops on the day the town was reported as being recaptured to the rest of the world. His effort was likely, in part, intended to provide some measure of solace and support to the very forces who recently retreated from the city and knew the reality of their failure was being falsely reported as a great victory. Indeed, such poppycock claims could not improve the morale of the troops who failed to carryout the scripted fantasy which the govt screenwriters wrote in place of the devastating truth of the limits of their efforts.

    Of course, one would find it difficult to reproach the valor or ability of those men whose efforts were not enough to maintain control of the city, as the Russians are a formidably armed and trained force, consistently overcoming many obstacles to press their victory, day after day with mostly only fictional disasters mixed among transient setbacks. It is, however, a cruel test of morale to place these claims of false valor upon men who know full well that fictional victories can not claim a single field. At the end of the day, false narratives only buy a period of calm before the reality must be acknowledged and the governmental lies must be realized. Such techniques can successfully hide a blunder or even a single defeat, but at some point, the narrative needs to be matched with at least some point of success, and the Ukrainian successes seem to be limited to their campaigns of deceptions and propaganda, making the discoveries of these falsehoods all the more distasteful to both the Ukrainian adherents and their armed forces. While these lies seem to provide enough support to continue the military graft in foreign cash and weaponry, the consequence of articulating such known falsehoods will only marginalize the legitimacy of the govt in the eyes of the public, while simultaneously undermining the morale within the ranks. Of course, better leadership would comprehend the value in avoiding the credibility gap created by govt deceptions, just as better leadership would have likely avoided the war altogether and make the need of telling such tall-tales unnecessary.

  3. The Russian gains in this war should be further qualified by the fact that the NATO trained/funded/armed forces in the Ukrainian army have been battle hardened over 8yrs, though they only faced the combined volunteer elements in support of the local Dombassers. Still, Ukraine has known this war was coming and worked prodigiously towards preparing for this goal over the past year, and likely much longer than that. This allowed them the opportunity of creating a series of concrete enforced entrenched positions from which to face the Russians. Despite these facts, and the recent series of aid and mercenaries being funneled into support them, Russia has still continued to advance while capturing 1/5 of the Ukrainian nation, per the Ukrainians themselves. This has been quite a feat to achieve.

    Of course, the war was intended only as the basis upon which economic unrest in Russia was meant to provide the context of Putin’s fall as Raphael well discusses. In its place, the reckless abuse of sanctions have rendered the West impotent on this front and it seems that Russia is well able to suffer this storm, even as their battlefield successes continue to accrue. Of course, as Cornwalis discovered, the victory of the war goes to he who wins the final battle, so we will see if the situation on the battlefield continues to support the Russians or if it will turn as the limited number of new toys being placed into the hands of Ukraine make their presence known on the battlefield. Should the conclusions about the West seeking a settlement prove accurate, it is a vital step in the direction of responsible leadership, so I am still a bit wary of this proving true, despite the reality that this needed to have been done months ago, even before the war broke out.

    In any case, I believe it will be a hard sell to make to the people of the West and more so to the people of Ukraine, who will have a great deal of crow to choke down before they support their govt accepting any peace that does not retain all the now lost pieces, despite how badly they have abused their former Ukrainian countrymen who have been subjected to a severe state of siege over the past many years.