Last night I participated in a conference call with two Israeli analysts, two US analyst/journalists and one Senior Syrian Kurdish activists. We talked about the feasibility of a deal being cut in which Russia backed the Alawites, Israel backed the Kurds and Christians leaving the Sunnis with their backing from the US, Turkey and the Gulf states. Either the country would be split into two countries or a federated Syria be established with each minority governing their own area. Ideas were kicked around as to how this might be brought about. One pre-condition was that Iran be kept out of Syria.
We are now working individually to promote such a solution. I reasoned that Russia would welcome such a solution as they wanted to keep their use of the Syrian port especially now that they have financially supported Crete and Greece. They are not a friend of Turkey and can see challenges looming in the eastern Mediterranean. Israel doesn’t want the MB, dominated by Turkey, to take over the whole country. So today’s article was welcomed.
By the way Russia and Israel have cut a deal, yet to be signed whereby Russia gets a big stake in the Leviathon gas fields off Haifa. Ted Belman
By AL ARABIYA WITH AGENCIES Friday, 20 July 2012
Russian ambassador to France Aleksandr Orlov has said that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is ready to step down but ‘in civilized manner,’ but the claims were dismissed by the Syrian state television as “baseless.”
Bashar al-Assad is ready to step down but ‘in civilized manner,’ in claims dismissed by the Syrian state television as “baseless.”
The Russian diplomat said that during a meeting in Geneva by the Syria Action Group on June 30, a final communiqué provided for a transition to a more democratic regime was “accepted by Assad.” ‘He agreed to leave. But from a civilized way,” Orlov said.
Orlov’s statement came after opposition fighters announced their control of the country’s border posts with Turkey and Iraq and following brazen killing of three top security officials in the capital.
Al-Manar television has reported that Syrian national security chief Hisham Bakhtiar has died of wounds he sustained in the explosion that killed the top security officials on Wednesday.
On Friday, Syrian military forces claimed to have “cleaned” the Midan area of Damascus of “terrorists,” state television said early on Friday.
“Our brave army forces have completely cleaned the area of Midan in Damascus of the remaining mercenary terrorists and have reestablished security,” the broadcaster said.
The reports could not be confirmed. The Syrian government restricts access by international journalists.
Activists in Damascus said rebels were now in control of the capital’s northern Barzeh district, where troops and armored vehicles had pulled out.
The army had also pulled out of the towns of Tel and Dumair north of Damascus after taking heavy losses, they said. But they said troops were hitting the western district of Mezzeh with heavy machineguns and anti-aircraft guns overnight.
A resident who toured much of Damascus late on Thursday said he saw signs the government’s presence was diminishing, with only sporadic checkpoints and tanks in place in some areas. The Interior Ministry at the main Marjeh Square had a fraction of its usual contingent of guards still in place.
Shelling could be heard on the southwestern suburb of Mouadamiyeh from hills overlooking the city where the Fourth Division, commanded by Assad’s brother Maher, is based, he said.
Syrian television showed the bodies of about 20 men in T-shirts and jeans with weapons lying at their sides, sprawled across a road in the capital’s Qaboun district. It described them as terrorists killed in battle.
On Thursday, the rebel Free Syrian Army controlled at least two border crossings into Turkey at Bab al-Hawa and Jarablus and one border crossing with Iraq.
Coordination
The operations to seize the border checkpoints appear to show a level of coordination and effectiveness hitherto unseen from the rebels, who have been outgunned and outnumbered by the army throughout the 16-month conflict.
Footage filmed by rebels at the Bab al-Hawa crossing with Turkey showed them climbing onto rooftops and tearing up a poster of Assad.
“The crossing is under our control. They withdrew their armored vehicles,” said a rebel fighter who would only be identified as Ali, being treated for wounds on the Turkish side.
Two officers in the rebel Free Syrian Army said fighters were keeping themselves busy into the early hours of Friday, dismantling border computer systems, seizing security records and emptying the shelves of the duty-free shop.
At least 30 government tanks in the area had not mobilized to try to recapture the border post, according to Ahmad Zaidan, a senior Free Syrian Army commander.
Officials in neighboring Lebanon said refugees were pouring across the frontier: a security source said 20,000 Syrians had crossed on Thursday.
Utter failure
Diplomacy has been largely ineffective throughout the crisis, with Western countries condemning Assad but showing no stomach for the sort of robust intervention that saw NATO bombers help blast Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi from power last year.
Russia and China on Thursday vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution threatening sanctions against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if he did not end the use of heavy weapons against an uprising, drawing sharp criticism from Western powers.
It was the third time in nine months that Russia and China wielded their veto power. As two of the five permanent members of the 15-nation council, the two countries can block any U.N. resolution.
The comments here have drifted aimlessly from the opening topic. Focussing on Assad, he stands a good chance of suffering the same fate as Qadaffi or worse. He may even try to sneak away to the Hague, for the relative dignity of being executed as a war criminal.
The Russians have not proved very effective protectors of their clients recently. They allowed the Serbs to be defeated in Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro; they abandoned Sadaam Hussein, and they allowed the dogs to eat Qadaffi in Libya. They have an aging nuclear arsenal that they can scarsely secure from being a danger to themselves, and a military on a par with America’s junior allies. In international affairs, they have been able to use their veto power and obstructionist tactics in order to slow NATO hegemony, but that’s about it. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia’s greatest “victory” has been keeping the Georgians from taking over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They are a de facto ally of the US, playing “good cop” to our “bad cop”.
@ Laura writes :”Israel should not sign the deal” I think it is a wise move.It will make the US friendlier to Israel, knowing there are other suitors waiting at the door.
Israel should not sign the deal. They will regret allowing any Russian control of their gas fields. Some at Israpundit who are enamored of Russia are blind to its treachery.
Big mistake.
If true then I called it: https://www.israpundit.org/archives/42795/comment-page-1#comment-138606