The Jewish state’s freedom of action over Damascus will only increase, expert says
Four Syrian soldiers were killed, and three others were wounded, in an Israeli missile attack on several positions of regime forces in Damascus early on Wednesday, the state-controlled Syrian Arab News Agency reported.
Most of the missiles were thwarted by Syrian air defense systems but the attack also caused material damage, according to the report.
Israeli military only said: “We don’t comment on foreign reports.”
Nighttime strikes from unidentified aircraft have become routine around Damascus and other parts of Syria in recent years. The Syrian statement of casualties, while not unprecedented, is considered unusual.
The main party deterring Israel from being more aggressive in Syria used to be Russia. But this might be changing.
Russian military bases have spread across Syria since 2015 when President Vladimir Putin intervened to save the Assad regime from losing the country’s civil war. While Russian air defense systems are in use in some parts of the country, Israel continues to enjoy a large degree of freedom of action in Syrian skies.
“Russia is no match for Israel’s air superiority,” says Zvi Magen, head of the Russia research program at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a former Israeli intelligence officer.
“Russia is deterred by Israel in Syria, and its military forces are not a factor for the IAF [Israel Air Force]. If anything, there is a match in interests when it comes to Iran, against whom Russia is fighting for control in Syria,” he adds,
Magen, who was born in Siberia to a father who served in the Red Army in WWII and a mother from Poland who survived the Holocaust, is a former Israeli ambassador to Moscow.
Describing Russia’s interests in Syria, he says, “First of all, it’s about access to the Middle East in general. Russia aspires to be a significant force in the region. Second, the Russian naval facility in Tartus is Russia’s entry to the Mediterranean Sea. I can’t see it risking those interests just to limit Israel’s freedom of action.”
While the alleged Israeli attack is a message to the Syrian government, it could also be directed toward Russia, following the Kremlin’s recent change of tone toward Israel, he says.
“Russia became very critical of Israel lately, and it’s not completely clear why. It most likely has to do with the war in Ukraine. But this attack could be a message, making it clear that Israel will not change its policy in Syria,” Magen explains.
Jerusalem has acknowledged attacks on Iranian forces in Syria, trying to prevent the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from establishing a military footprint near Israel’s northern border. Former IAF chief Maj. Gen (res.) Amir Eshel explained in an interview in 2019 that Israel’s main goal in these attacks was to prevent the IRGC from delivering high precision weapons to Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, Hizbullah. The Shiite militia is also active in the Syrian civil war, fighting on the side of the Assad regime.
“Russia is a relatively stable party when it comes to Syria,” Prof. Eyal Zisser, vice dean of Tel Aviv University and an expert on Syria, told The Media Line. “They have enough things to gain from Israeli attack there, so it’s hard for me to see them trying to confront Israel about it. And even if they wanted to, the military force they’re holding there is just too small.”
“The real unpredictable party is Iran. Eventually, that is who Israel is fighting on Syrian soil,” Zisser says. “Tehran could decide to stop containing Israeli strikes on their bases at some point, and then the rules of the game could change. It’s not particularly likely, but you ask me what can change the reality of Israel regularly attacking military bases in Syria, it’s this: a retaliation coming from the IRGC. The Syrian government may decide to retaliate at some point, but I just don’t see it happening soon.”
“The casualties are a little unusual, but I don’t think they reflect an intended change in Israeli policy,” says Dr. Carmit Valensi, manager of the Syria research program at INSS, in an interview with The Media Line.
“We have been monitoring attacks in Syria for a few years now, and at least when it comes to frequency, this attack is more of the same. I doubt anyone in Israel decided to intentionally kill Syrian soldiers. Israel’s goal has been and remains to thwart shipments of technology that is supposed to make Hizbullah’s old rockets more accurate. Casualties are collateral damage,” she explains.
Valensi also agrees with Magen about Russian interests in Syria.
“Russia’s policy in Syria includes two goals: stabilizing Syria and preventing Iran from becoming too dominant in it. Good relations with Israel are key for both goals,” she says.
“We have yet to see any major changes in Russia’s actions in Syria. There are some reports regarding minimizing the military actions, but it’s still a little early to assess if it’s serious. The bottom line is that Israel still has freedom of action in Syria, and it’s hard to believe it’ll change,” Valensi says.
Although it strikes me as hubris, let’s say you’re correct and Russia isn’t a match for Israel. What if Russia, Turkey, and China are aligned? This is what’s going to crush us. It’s pure arrogance and drunken boasting to think that Israel can’t be defeated. If you talk to soldiers and listen to them, the morale is lower than the Dead Sea. Scoff if you like, then look at the suicide rate.
WE ARE NOT WINNING. WE ARE WEAK AND ARE LED BY WEAK PEOPLE. INCLUDING BIBI!
We don’t have a coherent forward-looking plan of action. And politics here is dog in the manger, crabs in a pot worse than anything I experienced in the corrupt politics of the part of America I left in 2004.
By the way, a coherent plan of action should be built around using the abundant natural gas resources that Hashem has blessed us with and abandoning the insane anti-human Green tech and the stupid Carbon ideology (a pagan belief ).
Yes Ted you see what’s possible.
I would leave Jordan strictly alone. It’s a question of priorities. Listen to Reader. The king is not Iran and not ISIS.
Concentrate on getting Bibi back in and not losing UAE and others.
Openly publicly back Putin 100% in Ukraine.
If Bibi hesitates on that kick him to F..k out and never talk to him again.
The deal is we denazify here you in Ukraine
And do it. I mean DO IT.
Bye Bye Fatah and Hamas. Bye Bye Azov.
It’s very obvious.
@Felix
Right on.
Its happening.
Everything starts to happen when Mudar takes power.
Ted
So now is the very time for a bold national program of action by Israel
1. Remove PA Leadership
2. Remove Hamas leadership
Reorganization of this whole area by giving the local power to Arab tribal or clan leaders
Total end to all signs of Jew Hatred.
America will object to this but Israel will be making many friends. Including Russia and all fighting US hegemony in world
.
YES!!!
@Ted
Wise stewardship of power is an awesome responsibility which the US has lost all brinkmanship in exercising. As the US has demonstrated over the past year, the greater they exercise the authority they hold over others, the less meaningful and less powerful that authority may become with its exaggerated use. Power must be used with a tactful awareness that threat of its use is the greatest source of being capable of holding command over others. As Russia demonstrated, when forced to adapt to a severely abusive authority, alternate methods of neutralizing that authority will present itself, methods that would demand too great a risk to be arbitrarily pursued without the motivation presented by a capricious or irresponsible authority, as has been demonstrated of late by the US govt.
@Ted
Excellent analysis!
Russia opposes America in what ever America is doing around the world. In doing so it punches above its weight and gains influence around the world. the same in the ME.
Russia supports the Palestinian cause because it gives them influence. If she simply sided with Israel then Russia becomes a non-entity in the ME.
Russia is an arch trouble maker in the ME.
If the US pushes Israel too far Russia will have an opportunity to side with Israel.
The more Russia and Israel get along the less power over Israel the US has.
I think it is important to know that Israel has the capability of acting independent of Russia’s control, as it suits Israel’s interests to do so. That being said, it would be a moot test of this capability to recklessly abuse a relationship with a nation as powerful and as independent as Russia has demonstrated herself to be. Regardless of the past failing, described with delicate diplomacy here, in the relationship between Israel and Russia, it would be a gross error in judgement to purposefully not support the ongoing moves at rebuilding the past relationship with a more limited or fading breach between these two very important powers. In fact, it was a great achievement of Bibi’s premiership to cultivate an understanding with the Russians that blossomed in many ways, likely ways the public is not even fully aware.
This fact makes it clear that the foolish abandonment by the Bennett govt of continuing to cultivate a strengthening relationship with the Russians, has been a poorly decided and seriously misguided policy move, particularly given the rude return to the Obama standards of daylight and advantaging the Arabs, and more particularly the Iranians, against the interests of Israel. Til a more capable govt can be formed, these Barney Fife policies will likely continue to disassemble the wiser policies previously established. The greater tragedy is that the cracks introduced to such international relations with formerly disparate nations will be difficult to easily mend, and even with a great effort the return of such sensible cordial relationships may never be well repaired. The recent sharp moves by Russia to respond to Israel’s determined move away from the policy of cultivation, in such a way that would clearly demonstrate the increasing breach between the two nations is no product of mere chance. Diplomacy is not inherent in all men, just as wisdom is also awarded to only the few. I believe that it is clear that these two gifts are easily missing in the character of Lapid as he has made every attempt to abuse the Russians, despite their visible recognition of the abuses of his enacted policies. Indeed, I believe the same mentality as supported the contempt for Russia in the Bucha UN HRC vote, also supported the issued statements that led to this article, flaunting Israel’s capacity to do so without regard for the possibility of any consequences of these claims, irregardless of their veracity. The unfortunate truth is that as with elections, poor judgement is never without consequences, and the Russians seem willing to accept abuses to a point, beyond which they react quite decisively.
@Rebel Russia supports the TSS, Russia supports Iran, Hamas, the PA. Syria, opposes Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, Jewish settlement in Yesha, backs nearly every blood libel in the UN, has troops occupying neighboring Syria, demands that Israel hand over a church. And
That’s without all the crimes of the Soviet Union and if Russia isn’t responsible for the previous regimes, how can they claim a church that has been there since the 19th century or bring up WW2? Exactly what do you call reasonable? Especially if Russia’s forbearance in Syria was actually based on weakness? And does the West have a monopoly on Hubris?
Better be careful, do not carry away with this stupid western hubris. Russia has been reasonable with us until now and we need the same attitude in the future. We do not need conflict with Russia. Even when right now we have a stupid and often brazing treacherous behavior government.
That’s a relief to hear. If that’s the case, it really doesn’t matter what position Israel takes with regard to Russian interests.