The more I think about Israel’s security situation at this moment, the better it looks. Obviously, this is counter-intuitive given the media bias, academic distortions, and campaigns for sanctions of various kinds. And, of course, Israel starts from a basis of facing far more security challenges than any other modern state. Still, by Israeli standards the outlook is good.
It’ll take a while to list all of the factors so let’s get started while the inkwell is still full.
On the surface, the “Arab Spring” along with the surge of revolutionary Islamism certainly looks bad but let’s examine the shorter-term implications. By reentering a period of instability and continuing conflict within each country, the Arabic-speaking world is committing a self-induced setback. Internal battles will disrupt Arab armies and economies, reducing their ability to fight against Israel. Indeed, nothing could be more likely to handicap development than Islamist policies.
While one shouldn’t depend too much on expecting Arab regimes to be too busy dealing with domestic transformation to want to stage foreign adventures against Israel, this is far more true than in past decades. And even if they would like to attack Israel they are less able to do so effectively given their disrupted societies, weakened armies, uncertain alliances, and lack of a Western sponsor.
Every Arabic-speaking country is likely to be wracked by internal violence, conflict, disorder, and slow socio-economic progress for years, even decades, to come.
Westerners are going to be disillusioned as reform stalls; the oppression of women increases; and Islamism produces unattractive partners. True, the Western left romanticizes Islamism but the number of people persuaded that these regimes are more attractive than Israel will be less as what Marxism traditionally described as “clerical-fascist” movements flourish.
Moreover, for Turkey and Iran the last year has been a disaster for their regional power ambitions. With rising Arab Sunni Islamist movements in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria, Sunni Arabs see no need to turn to non-Arab Turks and non-Arab, non-Sunni Persians.
Turkey’s influence is limited to northern Iraq and, thanks largely to the Obama Administration’s backing, with the Syrian opposition. And if Syria became either Sunni Islamist or more moderate democratic, Damascus would quickly dispense with any need for Turkish patronage.
As for Iran, it has lost virtually all of its non-Shia Muslim assets, notably Hamas. Again, Sunni Arab Islamists are not going to follow Tehran’s lead while Sunni Arab countries don’t want to yield leadership of “their” Middle East to Tehran.
Therefore, the big Middle East conflict of this era will be Sunni-Shia, not Arab-Israeli. But a series of conflicts have broken out all along the Sunni-Shia borderland as the two blocs vie for control of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Bahrain.
In addition, the Syrian civil war is wrecking that country and will continue to paralyze it for some time to come. When the dust settles, any new government is going to have to take a while to manage the wreckage, handle the quarreling, diverse ethnic-religious groups, and rebuild its military. In Lebanon, a dominant Hizballah, trying to hold onto power and worrying about the fate of its Syrian patron, doesn’t want a confrontation with Israel.
Then there are the surviving traditionalist regimes—Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the five other Gulf emirates—who know the main threat to them is from Iran and revolutionary Islamists at home, not Israel. In fact, they realize, Israel is a kind of protector for them since it also opposes those who want to put their heads on the chopping block.
An extremely important point to note is how completely Arabs, and especially Palestinians, threw away the greatest opportunity they’ve ever had to gain more U.S. support and widen the cracks between Washington and Jerusalem into a chasm. If properly motivated, the Obama Administration was ready to become the most actively pro-Palestinian government in American history, to offer more concessions to the Palestinian Authority (PA), and to put more pressure on Israel than ever seen before.
Instead, they refused to cooperate with Obama and rejected his initiatives. The PA wasted Obama’s entire term in refusing even to negotiate with Israel. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, the PA repeatedly showed the U.S. government that it was the intransigent party. And even if American officials would never publicly admit this, they certainly had to give up as a result.
I provide this list not to rejoice at the misfortunes of others, even those who are hostile, because their people are the real victims. But these misfortunes are the result of decisions they made. This is the reality of the Middle East today.
On the other side has been Israel’s dramatic success in terms of economic progress. The country has become a world leader in high-technology, medicine, science, computers, and other fields. It has opened up new links to Asia. The discovery of natural gas and oilfields promise a massive influx of funds in the coming years.
And despite the usual internal quarrels (social protests, debates over drafting religious students, nasty flaps over personalities, and minor corruption scandals) Israel is basically a stable and united (where it counts) country. The idea that Israel is menaced by the failure to get official peace with the Palestinians is a staple of Western blather but has no big impact in reality.
Of course, there are threats—Iran getting deliverable nuclear weapons; Egypt becoming belligerent—but both lie in the future and there are constraining factors. In Iran’s case, there is external pressure and problems actually building weapons; for Egypt, the army as well as the balance of force constrains the radical Islamists. And if there are conflicts, Israel is well able to defend itself.
Foreign editorial writers may never admit it; foreign correspondents may thunder doom, but nonetheless Israel and its security are in good shape.
The legal Levy report on the non-illegal status (means LEGALITY of the settlements) of the settlement in J & S is an instrument that Israel can use anywhere and specifically against the West who has and continues to do its best to undermine the only democracy between the Mediterranean sea and the Indian ocean.
As far as Iran is concerned, the majority, whether religious or not, wants the nuke. A true democratic (western definition) country is the only solution.
Islam which has not changed from its original form is not compatible with democracy and there is no possible accommodation. There is not a single democratic Muslim country.
Procrastination seems to be the game in town with the creation of facts (legal: E Levy legal report; and physical: construction in J & S) on the ground.
Pr. O wouldn’t dare to undermine further the Jewish state. Il cannot afford to be blackmailed by its “friends”, can they”?
There is no need to crush the PA, it would be a reason for a new “nakba”. We have enough with one nakba and 2 antifadas. Who needs more nakbas and or antifadas?
@ steven l:
Good article, and I agree with you, “steven l”, that Israel should look east. South Korea will make a particularly valuable strategic partner at several levels (military aerospace collaboration, high-tech collaboration in general, a “bridge” partner to the rest of the Far East…and South Koreans are philosemitic to boot).
One huge caveat to Rubin, however.
I really think he is whistling in the dark on Iran. Precisely because they are in such lousy shape otherwise, they are pursuing the bomb all out, and will do so without any restraint unless that regime is overthrown (and even that is not a guarantee that the bomb work stops), or if the bomb program is dealt with militarily.
IF Iran is dealt with decisively, THEN I’d agree pretty much with the rest of Rubin’s analysis.
I’d also say that despite his correct analysis of the huge mistake of the PA in not cooperating with Obama, if Obama is re-elected, I’d predict that the pressure will increase on this front. This is another big problem.
People here keep forgetting that the UNSC has yet to vote on the PA’s application for statehood that was submitted last September. What is holding that up? Been what, nine months?
That is what Obama is likely holding over Israel’s head in the form of his ultimate “trump card” of potential retaliation if Israel unilaterally hits Iran, and/or annexes J&S.
And, if Obama is re-elected – which I don’t expect, but must consider as at least possible – he’ll throw everything he’s got to get Israel to capitulate to the PA. Not facing re-election, not needing to get fundraising $$$ from dumb “Obama Zombie” American Jews anymore, he’ll back the PA in the UN, and throw Israel under the bus, for sure. Now, none of this means that Israel necessarily HAS to capitulate, but it will make for a rough ride for another four years, a time frame which will have Israel and her supporters nostalgic for the “good olde days” of Obama’s first term.
That, folks, is why the PA hasn’t “cooperated” with Obama. It isn’t so much that they blew this “big opportunity”, so much as they expected – and continue to expect – that Obama will simply deliver Israel to them. Why make any concessions? Has anybody here noticed that Obama has put NO genuine pressure on the PA to compromise their positions in any way? What does that tell you all?
If Obama is defeated this fall, as I expect, there is a strong possibility that in desperation, the PA will launch a big Intifada in order to take advantage of having the most anti-Israel president in U.S. history in office for whatever time he’s got left. And, if I am right about this election, and such an Intifada comes to pass, that is the time for Israel to crush the PA once and for all, and annex J&S.
Israel should not be too concerned about her Muslim/Arab enemies but more about her “friends”: EU-GB-USA governments and in some of these countries their people. Israel must diversify and increase its connections towards the far East. Lot of good stuff could happen if Il focuses also on central and S-America.
Bernie, you are correct. I say “let the Islamist kill each other off for as long as it takes”.
Chaos, not stability,in the lands of the enemy is a good status to encourage. A perpetual arab spring is desirable. GOI policy seeks stability or the enemy you know. However, GOI policy is faulty just as it is faulty in breaching the rights of Jews to settle west of Jordan River.
Besides Sunni-Shia rivalry, there is, and will be for the foreseeable future, the Ottoman-Persian rivalry for preeminence of the Muslem world, resented by all Arabs, thereby giving rise to competing Egyptian-Saudi rivalry. These people will be at each other’s throats for as long as anybody can tell.
Israel would do well to bask a little in our success. Nobody will take us down. Compare where we are with any of the 80+ countries created since th end of WWII, and there is not a one we’d want to trade places with.
The Chicken-Little feeling we have all been living with all our lives is not particularly useful anymore, nor really accurate.
Would you rather be an Israeli? or an Egyptian citizen these days? How about Syrian? Or Turkish? or Iranian? Or Saudi? Or Lebanese? Or ……?