WSJ, Politics, June 16, 2011
President Obama Remains Ahead of All Republican Candidates, but Poll Shows Worries About Economy Are Mounting
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has surged to a clear lead in the Republican race for the presidential nomination, but his party’s attacks on President Barack Obama’s economic stewardship have yet to shake the president’s lead over the GOP, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.
At the same time, rising anxieties over the economy continue to erode the political environment for the president, pointing to a tight re-election fight. “The president has substantial advantages but is still in for a very difficult race,” said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who co-directs the Journal/NBC News poll with Democrat Peter Hart.
The poll of 1,000 adults, conducted between June 9 and 13, put Mr. Obama’s approval rating at 49%, where it was in April, before Osama bin Laden’s killing had helped nudge it up to 52% in May. Forty-six percent said they disapproved of the job Mr. Obama is doing, a five-point jump from May.
Of those who said they were likely to vote in the Republican primaries next year, 30% said they back Mr. Romney, up from 21% last month, when former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and businessman Donald Trump were still possible contenders.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has yet to say whether she is running, now comes in a distant second, with 14% support. Other leading hopefuls, such as former Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Rep. Michele Bachmann, both of Minnesota, are in single digits.
When the field was narrowed to six names, Mr. Romney’s support surged to 43%, with Reps. Bachmann and Ron Paul of Texas at 11%, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at 9%, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 8% and Mr. Pawlenty at 7%.
The poll found eroding support for Mr. Gingrich. Just 32% of likely GOP voters viewed him positively in the latest poll, compared with 50% in April. And the number who view him negatively has jumped to 34% from 13% in April.
Concerted Republican attacks on Mr. Obama have so far failed to fundamentally change public opinion about him. The president still leads GOP White House contenders including Mr. Romney, and 62% said the nation’s economic malaise is one the president inherited, not one he caused.
“There’s nothing to suggest the public’s really turned on him,” Mr. Hart said.
Still, a year and a half before Election Day, the political environment has grown more perilous for the president as economic gloom remains high. Some 62% of respondents said the U.S. is on the wrong track, up 12 percentage points from a month ago. Forty-four percent said the U.S. is heading for another recession, a slightly larger share than those who don’t foresee a “double dip.”
Mr. Obama’s generally buoyant political standing reflects his continued personal appeal and the historic nature of the first African-American presidency. His high standing among black and Hispanic voters shatters four decades of data that until now has closely correlated approval of the president with views about whether the country is on the right track, Mr. McInturff said.
Among all poll respondents, 45% said they would probably vote to re-elect Mr. Obama, while 40% said they would choose a Republican. Against specific GOP contenders, the president’s lead widened. Mr. Obama leads Mr. Romney 49% to 43%; he topped Mr. Pawlenty 50% to 37%.
Mr. Romney has used his background in business and his leadership of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics to present himself as the one to fix the ailing U.S. economy. To some voters, the pitch has worked: Mr. Romney has opened a 12-point lead on Mr. Obama among suburban voters, and a 10-percentage-point edge among white voters.
Cynthia McNary, 64, a publicist from Charlottesville, Va., said she picked Mr. Romney as her first choice in the poll because of his business background and management of the Olympic games.
“If he can turn around the Olympic bunch, he ought to be able to turn us around, or at least put us on a good road,” said Ms. McNary, a self-described independent who leans Republican.
For some, their choice of Mr. Romney is based largely on name recognition. “I have heard his name more. He must be doing something right,” said Chandra Filichia, 34, of Grove City, Ohio, who said she didn’t know his policy positions.
Other supporters said he has the best chance to beat Mr. Obama. David Wade, a 67-year-old from Deltona, Fla., said he ideally would like Ms. Palin to take on Mr. Obama, but would back Mr. Romney. “I just don’t think they have the support,” he said of other Republican candidates.
Republican primary voters are evenly split at 45% on whether they are satisfied with the GOP presidential field. Four years ago, as the 2008 contest began heating up, 73% said they were satisfied, though that number later fell.
Only 24% of those polled said they are extremely or quite confident Mr. Romney has the skills and ability necessary to be president. In September, 2007, 46% felt that way about then-Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, and 32% felt extremely or quite confident in Mr. Obama.
Undecided presidential voters are decidedly negative about the state of the nation and the economy, making them difficult targets for Mr. Obama.
Romney the RINO
Substitute for link in #14
Hi,Shy Guy
You #14 link didn’t load, but I got to read link #15. I don’t know how to interpret those poll results, that have Obama losing to “Generic Republican” yet winning against every Republican candidate. I think it says something generally about the usefulness of polls.
Yamit,
I agree with all you said in ##16 and 17, but — as usual, I suppose — wtihout the gusto. That name “Louis René Beres” rang a bell, though. We have a local Atheist anti-Jew named George Beres, a man of Greek ancestry. I’ve started helping out at the Local Access TV station, where I also produce a program; and the first show I shot camera for turned out to be an anti-Israel and, even more so, blatantly anti-Jewish tirade. I called my local rabbi, to see if we can do something about this, and got his answering machine. We’ll see how it goes.
Speaking of Roman sayings, Cicero gave one that is appropriate for our day. It was in his speech denouncing Cataline before the Senate. It went,
O TEMPORA, O MORES! (Oh, the times! Oh, the customs!).
The most interesting point, of course, is that “O” in Latin translates to “Oh” in English. I think few people know that 🙂
Re: # 16. The economy is imploding, Civil strife is beginning, Iran close to a bomb, that can reach any spot on the globe, not just Israel
and what is the national news past time: A notorius trial and a sex pervert congressman (married to a Muslim supporter of terrorism.)!! Specualting like choosing an American idol over who will be the next president over a year and a half before the election.
Reminds me of “bread and circuses” of Rome as she was collapsing.
“Bread and circuses” has become a convenient general term for government policies that seek short-term solutions to public unrest.
I advise everyone who is concerned about Israel and the West to read carefully an experts opinion on the danger that we face:
Israel’s Options for Dealing With a Nuclear Iran
With preemption obviated, the Jewish state will have to rely on a careful combination of active defense and reliable deterrence
By Louis René Beres , John T. Chain, US NEWS
Louis René Beres is professor of political science and international law at Purdue University, and retired Air Force Gen. John T. Chain was commander-in-chief, U.S. Strategic Air Command from 1986 to 1991.
Look what Obama is doing behind your view. He would be good at Three-card Monte.
US Naval and Troop Movements Toward North Africa, Middle East Reported As Syrian Destabilization Escalates
Washington DC – US Special Forces units based at Fort Hood, Texas, have been told to prepare for deployment to Libya no later than July, according to a US military source. The Special Forces would then be followed in September or October by heavy armored units of the First Cavalry Division, currently located in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with other components of the US III Corps. This report was broadcast today on the Alex Jones radio program, and comes against the backdrop of escalating US destabilization operations against Syria and sharpening US condemnation of Damascus and its ally, Tehran.
Observers point out that US Special Forces have been in Libya since February. They also note that, while the Libyan destination is highly plausible, some of these units may also find themselves on the way to Yemen, Syria, or beyond. Read More
According to the Israeli site DebkaFile, which often reflects the views of the Mossad, “Western sources additonally report a build-up of ship-borne anti-missile missile strength in the Mediterranean basin. This huge concentration of naval missile interceptor units looks like preparations by Washington for the contingency of Iran, Syria and Hizballah letting loose with surface missiles against US and Israeli targets in the event of US military intervention to stop the anti-opposition slaughter underway in Syria. Moscow, Tehran and Damascus, in particular, are taking this exceptional spate of American military movements in and around the Mediterranean as realistically portending American intervention in Syria.” Debka also says that Hezbollah is in the process of moving some of its formidable missile assets from northern Lebanon to the central regions of that country, closer to Israel.”
A stray dog it is!
“Hahaha! I was just kidding!
Our economy needs stimulating. When will Obama be shovel-ready?
If Romney doesn’t go the way of Gingrich, the next elections will the the way of McCain, even after all the “stray dog” ballots are counted.
I will vote for whichever Republican gets the presidential nomination next year. Right now, that looks like Mitt Romney. He has a lot of money, and he is attracting the Republican big money support. Most of the rest of the pack are striving against one another to get the kind of national press attention that Romney already has. I never heard of Tim Pawlenty until he started making noises about offering himself for nomination. Bachmann and Palin are likely to play the role of permanent crowd-rousers for the GOP. The same for Perry of Texas. Ron Paul is sort of warmed-over libertarian of many a yesteryear. Gingrich is the candidate nobody seems to have any interest in anymore.
Unless Romney does something to screw up his own campaign, he’ll be the guy. And I think Romney is too careful an operator to get himself hanging from a nail in the wall. He did the smart thing by refusing to sign onto some crazy pledge to kill abortion rights. He seems to me like the only Republican candidate who fully understands that if you lose the centrist vote, you lose the election. If the rightwing folks really want to get rid of Obama, Romney’s probably the only candidate who can beat him.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
Conservative Rep. will not defeat BHO.
But it will be their responsibility if BHO has a 2nd term.
There should be no doubt about this.
I think that from June 2011 standpoint, Romney is the only Republican capable of unseating Obama late next year. My own ideology leans strongly rightward. But after a lifetime observing American politics, I know that radicals either to the left or right are unelectable to the presidency. Obama proved to be a rather left-leaning radical, but that was not representational of the “change you can believe in” banner under which he campaigned three years ago.
Of equal significance is that under modern American national politics and their funding, a strong candidate in either party must more or less show dominance the summer before the primary elections and national elections take place. Romney now shows that dominance. Which means that he is the one whom the big money will go to. Most of the other candidates either are has-beens such as Newt Gingrich, or popular local candidates whose popularity in the polls are not likely to rise over 10 per cent or so, such as Pawlenty. Others, such as Ron Paul, are too radical to attract a substantive following outside their own circle of devotees.
Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann and Herman Cain likely will be cheerleaders in this campaign, rather than national candidates.
On the Democratic Party side, they are stuck with Obama for better or worse from their point of view. All things being equal, an incumbent first-term president gets to determine whether or not he will go for a second term, and few people in his party will try pulling him down.
Can Romney unseat Obama? I think so. He is far more acceptable to middle-of-the-road voters who really control American national elections. Actually, some hard core rightwing Christians — especially some of the Southern Baptists and Evengelical Christians — do not like Romney because of his Mormon religion, which they regard as non-Christian. But if and when it comes to a choice between Romney and Obama, they will find a way to ignore that and support their “non-Christian” Mormon against Obama, whom they not-so-secretly think is still a Moslem.
Israel in American perceptions is not likely to loom large in this coming national political struggle, much as some of you might want to think otherwise. The economy here is thought to be about in the same condition now as it was during the sad and perplexed administration of Herbert Hoover in the four terrible years immediately following the Wall Street stock market crash of October 1929. The reality then was that Hoover could do little to reverse the onrushing Great Depression, as we still refer to it in frightened whispers. From now until next year, there is little Obama can do in the case of the same kind of economic steam roller. Especially so, now that the US House of Representatives, from which all revenue legislation must be initiated, is now under solid control of Republicans who have no reason whatsoever to help bail out Obama from his sinking ship. In any case, Romney is much more likely to be far more friendly to Israel than is Obama, and will be under influence of Republicans who would seriously like to get the Jewish establishment on their side, irrespective of the social liberalism that hobbles them.
All things considered, Obama is being viewed as a political experiment that went sour. If the American economy were suddenly to reverse itself and move into high gear once again, some of that perception could conceivably change. But I do not think this particular downward economic cycle is likely to reverse itself for a couple of years. I understand that is the way the successful investors are betting their chips, and they didn’t get or stay super-rich making dumb mistakes.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
I wonder if 62% of Americans will still be blaming George W. Bush for their woes in 3012. It seems to be a foolproof dodge from any sort of responsibility. Global warming? It’s W’s fault — and it explains the cold winter we just had. Geithner printing funny money, and causing hyperinflation? W’s fault — he bewitched him! A record-setting environmental disaster in the Gulf? Bush did it! He used witchcraft! Wars gone sour in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Yemen and Syria? All Bush’s fault. He made a war junkie out of Obama, so he can’t help himself from getting involved in more and more. Long after W is dead, he will be blamed with causing everything from unwanted pregnancy to bad grades in school.
62%. Let’s see what the numbers say in November, 2012. Anything can happen: All the Republican candidates may drop out of the race, and the party might nominate Dennis Kucinich. If they do, I’ll vote for him.
After more than 2 1/2 years of Obama he is still polling around 50% despite the disapproval over all of his policies and how he is viewed re’: Job performance. That means Americans LIKE Obama personally. Most Americans didn’t like Bush even most Republicans conservatives or so called moderates. Because he is liked Americans will give Obama a lot of slack. American politics is more about is more about one side losing than the opposition winning. Goldwater had no chance, Dole never had a chance and McCain could have won except he ran the most inept and stupid campaign I have ever witnessed. Bush , first term lost the popular vote and edged out the controversial Florida chad controversy to what many still think was an election stolen. If the Democrats had chosen anyone but two losers like Gore and Kerry they also might have beaten Bush.
Problem with American politics is that to get elected a candidate must win over too many diverse and often contradictory constituent interests and entrenched vested interests. They all try to appeal to the lowest common denominators which means they all lie and never take positions where the polls say a majority is against, even though what a majority may want is antithetical to the national interest.
That’s why I don’t believe a real conservative can beat Obama. Obama should be criticized but few solutions should be offered like medicare or social security reforms. Advocating major reforms will lose any election for any candidate. Obama should be made to stand against his own record and the Republicans should not be made to defend their own proposed solutions.
In American politics it’s better to be generally liked than to be right in policy advocacy.
Americans treat their national elections like they do with American Idol, In most cases the Best talent seldom wins.
I watched the debate and all the Republican candidates did was smugly agree they don’t like Obama. Their only suggestion to cure the economy was to lower taxes for Corporations and hope they reward us with jobs but some corporations are earning more than they did before the Recession and still not hiring. A new vision for the future is needed and they want to let the ship of state run without a rudder hoping it won’t land on the rocks. They all agreed government should stay out of things but that is the problem, the Congress has been doing nothing while Rome Burns.
They want to repeal the Health Care bill but offer nothing to replace it. There was and still is a healthcare crisis driven by sky high costs and they offer nothing to reduce the costs. There was even the suggestion to get rid of the EPA because it offends business makes them think about what poisons they put in the soil, water, or atmosphere. Sure you can have a booming industrial economy if you just dump waste anywhere you want look at the pictures of the yellow and brown clouds of smoke in Chinese Industrial cities. Of course there is a small problem of Chinese in these cities dying in extraordinary numbers and the more people they kill the more jobs open up in fact in some places in China there are shortages of workers.
Then the Republican candidates want to go back to don’t ask don’t tell and have a Constitutional Amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman. The worst way to legislate is to tamper with the Constitution which has served us well for over 200 years and doesn’t need an amendment for anyone’s pet peeves.
The most important issue is an energy policy. There are brilliant new discoveries every day in the field of energy and all they can talk about is oil, coal, and Nuclear and pay lip service to renewable green energies. At MIT in the lab they have grown tiny batteries biologically. There are numerous ways of producing bio-diesel using poor soil instead of wasting good farmland to produce ethanol which is purely political. In France and Australia cars have been produced that run very cheaply on compressed air and can go 200 mile without recharging and when you do it can be done in a short matter of time for very little use of electricity. But to do any of this takes leadership and commitment which none of the Republican Candidates are exhibiting. Now is Obama doing any better? Not much but so far these guys show they might do worse.
I don’t see why there has to be a choice. We can have a conservative and beat Obama. The last time we had a non-conservative establishment Republican, and lost.
I think conservatives are still a minority in the GOP. The big money needed to mount successful elections will come from mostly non conservative Republicans. In a close race it could mean the difference. So far Romney has the financial support of the Republican moneyed elite mainly because they read the polls and want Obama out and their guy in. The conservatives will have to Choose whether they want a conservative ideologue or if they want to beat Obama more.
I don’t believe that Romney will get the nomination. Many of his policies are objectionable to cnservatives.
Multiple choice Mitt
The sooner conservatives realize that they can’t afford the Republican/RINO equivalent of Flipper Kerry, the better they can decide who is as legitimate a representative of conservative values among the remaining candidates and consolidate their support for the best player out there to whip Hussein’s behind.