T. Belman. The Saudi terms make Biden and Congress the deal maker. Without their cooperation, it can not happen. According to the tentative terms, Israel doesn’t have to pursue a deal with the Palestinians. It just has to refrain from annexing (extending sovereignty) Area C. The Saudis also want to replace Jordan on the Temple Mount. My guess is the Saudi demands are not written in stone.
When Mudar Zahran becomes the leader of Jordan, his freedom of action will be limited by Saudi and US pressure. They will be financing Jordan.
Since his victory in the last elections, designated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been in under-the-radar contact with Riyad.
MBS and NetanyahuYonatan Sindel/Flash90, Reuters
Since his victory in the last elections, designated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been in under-the-radar contact with Riyad, through Washington, with the goal of laying the groundwork for a historic agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, an agreement which will complete the process which began with the Abraham Accords.
Yedioth Aharonoth commentator Nahum Barnea recently wrote that the stipulations for beginning negotiations are difficult, but the Saudi side is showing interest. “Prince Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS), the acting Saudi ruler, is showing a real willingness to negotiate.
The two nations have moved to direct contact a while ago, and the two are very satisfied with the results,” writes Barnea, according to sources in Washington. “The Saudi royal house was involved in the process which brought to the agreements with the UAE. At a certain point, there was even talk of the Saudis joining. The process didn’t develop, but it was clear to all that if Saudi Arabia would not give the Emiratis the green light, there wouldn’t have been an agreement.
Two and a quarter years have passed since the signing and the Saudis know that the countries that signed were not damaged. The experiment worked: We can move on to the next step.”
Barnea reports that Netanyahu is committing not to annex Judea and Samaria, in opposition to the opinion of designated Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. “Netanyahu is offering a normalization deal that does not include an Israeli commitment to proceed in the Palestinian issue. He commits to refrain from annexing territories for the extent of his term as prime minister and beyond it. A similar commitment to that which he made to the Americans while working on the Abraham Accords.”
The acting Saudi ruler, MBS, on his part, is presenting impossible demands. Barnea writes that “The first demand is that Israel makes sure to fix the relations between him and the Biden administration and Congress. MBS is one of the most hated foreign leaders in America, together with President Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China. He’s especially hated in the White House, by the more left-wing Democrats, and the liberal media.
MBS honestly gained the hate: It started with the widespread killing of civilians in the war in Yemen and reached its peak during the Khashoggi affair when the Washington Post journalist was killed and his body butchered by MBS’s men. MBS was boycotted in America.
The Saudi crown prince also demands that the supporters of Israel in the US congress remove the prohibition of selling advanced weaponry, including F-35 jets.”
Barnea also reports that the Temple Mount is also an issue, “King Abdullah of Jordan has bad memories from Netanyahu’s previous term. He also had trouble getting along with Bennett and Lapid, but Bibi is in a different league to him. The king is very sensitive when it comes to Jordan’s role on the Temple Mount. If the normalization agreements grant the Saudi’s a role on the Temple Mount, this can spell an additional decline in relations with Jordan.
The White House certainly sees the advantages of the Saudi initiative. It will force Netanyahu to run after Biden and his party, including the progressive left. The Saudi Crown Price is ready to avoid the question of the territories, but the Democrats in Washington have their own agenda. The settler lobby on one side, and the administration and the Senate on the other. There’s a long road to normalization,” concludes Barnea.
This Week on Israel Uncensored:
Give Up on Sovereignty for Peace with Saudi Arabia?
A news report over the weekend indicated that incoming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is once again considering pushing off applying sovereignty over Judea and Samaria in exchange for a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Sovereignty was pushed off in exchange for the Abraham Accords agreement with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain several years ago. On today’s Israel Uncensored, Josh Hasten says that while an alliance against Iran is a top priority, Israel should stay strong on the sovereignty issue.
Click to Listen
If Push comes to shove, Area C is more important than the latest Hudna. Israel has done just fine without normalization up to now. It’s the backward, oil-bound Iran threatened Gulf states who really need Israel, especially since having been abandoned by both America and Russia. And if, despite this, they are still willing to cut off their noses to spite their faces, as the saying goes, no treaty will be worth the paper it’s written on anyway when the next regime comes in.
The US and MBS clearly want to reserve Area C for the Arabs so they don’t want annexation.; Even if Israel doesn’t recant on her agreement to not annex, she could build new communities all over Area C to at least double the number of Jews living there. That would be like the Fayyad Plan in reverse. And of course demolish all illegal construction.
I also think that if Israel allowed Saudi Wakf to replace the Jordanian one but with joint custody of the Temple Mount with Israel, that MBS stop demanding concessions on Area C in exchange.
@Ted
I emphatically agree. The Abraham Accords are an important conceptual paradigm which is based upon a fundamental reworking of the Middle East around sound economic and military cooperation between the Sunni Arab states and Israel. It would be utter folly to make an underpinning foundation for this visionary model of a new Middle East to include a permanent abrogation of Israeli rights of sovereign rule over our own lands. By actually exercising sovereignty within her own borders, Israel is in no way changing the significance of nor the need for the new arrangements as expressed in the Abraham Accords by her current and potentially future peace partners. They will make what public noise as needed, but the Arabs will accept what they can not undo to gain what they absolutely require – a certain path towards a stable, profitable and secure future.
The very reason why the Accords were initially undertaken was quite irrelevant to securing the interests of the duplicitous, disingenuous, and insidious Pals who have repeatedly demonstrated that they have no interest in settling anything with Israel regardless of the terms. Furthermore, the Saudi interest in the Accords, if sincere, will surely survive Israel exerting ownership of lands which would be controlled by them under any circumstances, no matter what path the future might take with regards to the Pals.
The Saudi interest in openly supporting the Accords is sincere, fundamental and unquestionable, as the current members of the Accords only signed due to the Saudi support for them to do so. By extending sovereignty, it will complicate MBS’ position, but better to have such matters clearly detailed as the basis of the Accords than to pretend Israel has no right to that which is hers by every possible right and reason. Supporting such a charade would only serve to undermine the Accords or to undermine Israel’s sovereignty and security – neither of which should be contemplated.
All parties should be willing to honestly place their cards on the table to demonstrate the trust and fortitude which is required of such a significant undertaking as the Abraham Accords provide. Doing anything less would only anticipate a significant future challenge for everything that the Accords are intended to achieve.
I think that Bibi should not commit himself to Biden or to MBS to not extend sovereignty. Instead he should extend sovereignty first, at least to the 30% come what may. Both Biden and MBS will have no choice but to accept it.
MBS isn’t considering joining the Abraham Accords as a means to get Israel not to annex. That’s just a bonus. Their are other much more important reasons for joining the AA. If he accepts it so will Biden who wants to fix his relations with the Saudis before they get fully in bed with the Chinese and the Russians.
One of the main objectives of the Arabs in concluding these agreements was to be able to blackmail and pressure Israel.
And it will manifest itself many more times.