By Dr Eran Lermer, ISRAEL HAYOM
Why hasn’t the Israel Defense Forces used all of its force to combat the growing terrorism from the Gaza Strip? Not surprisingly, this is a question many Israelis are finding difficult to answer. For some, this frustration translates into blunt language directed at both the military and the political echelon. Yet even if Hamas foolishly drags Israel into a wide-scale conflict, the IDF has had three good reasons to adhere to its policy of containment and measured military responses.
The first consideration concerns Israel’s long-term interest in avoiding taking full and ongoing military control of Gaza, a possible outcome of an all-out military campaign; and the no less problematic possibility of a bloody draw, which could stem from a partial campaign. There can be no doubt the IDF is capable of subduing and controlling the escalation. The Hamas leadership is motivated by irrational urges, and so Israel prefers to try to manage its steps through the involvement of a third side – Egyptian intelligence, for example – who have a better chance of giving their interlocutors a clearer idea of the level of risk they are taking.
From this point, we can derive a second consideration: Israel has a role to play in the band of regional forces that raise the banner of stability and are partners in the fight against radical Islamism in all its forms, from Iran to the Islamic State. It is precisely because of this partnership that Israel must exhaust the potential for joint action with Egypt. Both countries view Hamas as an enemy, an enemy upon whom it would be best to deter than to engage in an all-out conflict, the outcome of which would be difficult to control.
A third consideration stems from the possible ramifications of embarking on a military campaign in the south at the height of what might quickly develop in a crisis in the north. Tensions between the United States and Iran, along with economic problems in Tehran, make it ever more likely that the Iranian regime will make some provocative moves. A watchful eye in the north demands that the IDF remain as available as possible to fortify deterrence against Israel’s chief enemy.
>Col. (ret.) Dr. Eran Lerman, former deputy director of the National Security Council, is the vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies.
@ LtCol Howard:
We’ve had this problem since 2005, and have tried dozens of ways to stop the terrorist attacks. We have always stopped short of utterly flattening the area. It’s the only thing we haven’t tried. Which leads to the obvious conclusion that that is what we need to do. I’ve advocated it for many years, giving the population time to get into the Sinai,and beginning in the north, gradually flatten everything all thr way down to the Sinai border.
Then bulldoze the rubble into the sea, thereby enlarging the area, and re-occupy it with Israeli citizens. After all, it’s part of Israel. And it has very favourable potential, which,if the Arabs had had less blood lust and more smarts, could have been very much to their advantage.
My comment above was just to point out that the reason given for not dealing properly with Gaza right now is that Israel must concentrate on the North, where there may be trouble. The report said Israel didn’t want to “fight a war on 2 fronts. Well I’d hardly call Gaza a “war front”, which is why I posted what I did, that Israel could handle Gaza with ease even in the middle of the most intense action in the North.
Your suggested method is a sort of cumulative “tit-for-tat” or “the carrot and stick” treatment, was OK at the beginning, but the enormous amount of atrocities committed by these Mamzerim mitigates strongly against any such measures….in my opinion anyway. It has gone far to far past this. They don’t deserve the consideration, that your method implies.
@ Edgar G.:There are so many ways of inflicting pain with an announced ratio such as you burnt an acre of our land, now we will burn 10 acres of your land. You terrorized our citizens, we will knock down three of your buildings and we will have our planes fly over you and buzz you all night long so you’ll experience equivalent terror. No Israeli should have even one minute of Terror.
I am sure you can think of hundreds of examples that would work. The objective is to deter the enemy. You do not do this by struggling to restore the power lines that he has cut which provided him with power.
I do not agree with the following as a workable fix to the security problem in Gaza, but this is what I hear the government thinking is. they were convinced of the following ideas and IDF capability by IDF COS, Gadi Eizenkot.
1. NO 5 year ceasefire (hudna) with major concessions is going to happen.
2. They do not want to conquer the Gaza strip
3. They want to get back to the quiet that lasted for 4 years prior to this
March stop the violence on the border and the fire bombs. They will not
accept its continuance.
4. They believe by controlled escalation they can control Hamas and stop the violence and firebombs. In 2014 when the IDF started leveling High Rises of which many are not yet rebuilt Hamas cried Uncle and wanted a ceasefire. Thursday the IDF did the same thing with one building (combo Hamas headquarters plus public building) having warned the residents to get out the IDF then leveled the building. This some believe is why Hamas wanted the trading of rockets and missile fire to stop.
5. They say leveling high rises plus targeting Hamas leaders will get them to stop. The IDF can do this without a ground invasion or at a minimum putting in Engineering Forces, Artillery and limited infantry. They want to convey to Hamas the IDF can topple Hamas with surgical strikes without capturing the Gaza Strip. Hamas has been embolden because the believe the IDF will not enter the strip and they are able to withstand just air strikes.
I personally believe if this works it is again just a temporary fix if it works even temporarily. So far there is no evidence of this.
The only near permanent fix is smash Hamas and Islamic Jihad, retake the Gaza Strip, and help Gazans who wish to leave and are peaceful to make their way to their good buddy Erodgan in Turkey or elsewhere. Rent cruise-liners or massive freight ships and take these people to the Med. port of choice outside of Israel.
There’s only one good reason why IDF should not retake the Gaza strip and that is because it doesn’t want to be responsible for the 2 million Jihadis living there. Of course, the world would lean back and enjoy the show, but the support that the Gazans get right now such as through UNRWA would not be passed on to Israel.
And not to forget, the cost of fighting this war would in no way be reimbursed either.
All the reasons are valid, except the last one, which I believe spurious.. Israel can very comfortably deal all out with Gaza without depriving the North of any material forces needed for that theatre of war. A single self contained division or less, and less than a handful of planes would be ample to destroy, or completely run through the whole of Gazan terrorist opposition, and patrol the flattened area.
Israel has about 600,000 fighting -ready troops including reserves. The IAF mas multiple planes of all kinds, ranking in about the middle of the 10 best air forces in the world, exceeded only by the uS, Russia, China, the UK and maybe India, and then mainly because of size and buying power.
So to assign a handful of planes to Gaza would not even be a pinprick .