Only two choices exist that make sense from the 4th round of Israeli elections, but that doesn’t mean we will see one of them occur.
By Rabbi Prof. Dov Fischer, INN , Apr 29 , 2021 6:23 AM
Given the allocation of Knesset seats, there easily are 65 seats for a right-wing political, moderately conservative social, and religiously respectful government.
It actually is pretty good that such choices exist. Israel has come quite a way since its left-wing Labor governments included outright Stalinists who comprised a bona fide Jewish party, Mapam, that once won as many 19 Knesset seats. It took Golda Meir and Moshe Dayan catastrophically conducting the Yom Kippur War, Ehud Olmert and Amir Peretz conducting the 2006 Second Lebanon War even more incompetently, Yitzhak Rabin bribing Alex Goldfarb (with a Mitsubishi and a driver) and Gonen Segev of Raful Eitan’s right-wing Tzomet party into supporting Oslo II, and finally Ehud Barak unilaterally ceding South Lebanon and Ariel Sharon doing the same with Gush Katif. And everyone experienced the results in horrible ways none will ever forget.
A quarter century of such “leadership” from the Left erased any imagined good feelings still reposing from the halcyon days of the Lavon Affair, government forcibly converting color TVs to black and white, and other such inspired Labor socialist initiatives. Intifadas arose from Oslo II, although rocks and bombs may not have been directed at Goldfarb’s Mitsubishi. Minister Segev ended up moving on to make bigger contributions to Israeli society, eventually getting convicted on charges of forgery, credit card fraud, and attempting to smuggle drugs. In 2019 he was convicted on spying for Iran and was sentenced to eleven years in prison. Not clear what car he was chauffeured in on the way to the hoosegow. Only the most hardened and foolish of Israeli leftists still can vote for a Labor Party or Meretz. Thus the 65 seats now at hand for a solid, stable right-wing government.
It should be simple, but it is not. People like Naftali Bennett and Gideon Sa’ar do not — and realistically cannot — trust Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s promises to them. My mother of blessed memory taught me when I was an eight-year-old boy in third grade at Brooklyn’s Yeshiva Rambam that I should always be honest because “your actions create a record, and your record will follow you wherever you go.” People who are honest for several decades gain a reputation that they can be trusted. People who deceive too often wake up one day to find that lots of people do not want to play with them any more. In politics, that can trump the good of the country.
It is what it is.
So we look at what should be a really nifty situation and instead struggle to figure a way out of the morass. Bennett doesn’t trust Bibi. Sa’ar doesn’t trust him. Avigdor Liberman doesn’t trust him. Yair Lapid doesn’t trust him. Too many people who worked closely with Bibi don’t trust him on a personal level – but most admit his incomparable accomplishments for Israel and many are afraid that with the Iran Deal in Biden’s hands and Gaza and Hezbollah warlike stirrings, added to internal unrest in the Arab sector, he is indispensable.
Who knows what is in his mind? That is the problem. When even Avigdor Liberman can’t believe that someone can be that two-timing a finagler, well — that’s a thing.
So it is a mess. And yet, remote though they seem, there are two elegant solutions.
First, beyond those two, a word about the most easy solution of all — which is the worst. It is what the Talmud calls “the short road that is long.” That road to No Man’s Land is one that coalesces 59 seats including Bennett’s Yamina and then relies on Mansour Abbas of Ra’am for passive support outside the government. There is something indescribably repulsive in having a Jewish government in Israel that relies for its existence on an Arab Party that is loosely associated with the Muslim Brotherhood.
The notion, with 65 seats in tow for a stable religious right-wing government, that a deal needs to be made with a guy who exists ultimately to destroy Israel and can take it all down any day he likes is rather insane. All it takes is for Israel to respond with force to the recent spate of Hamas rocket fire from Gaza, or to crack down on anti-Jewish Arab rioters at the Damscus Gate in the Old City, and Abbas can take down the government. This is insane — although, in fairness to Abbas, he seems presently the only guy in the Knesset besides the janitor who has not yet forced Israel into at least one of the rounds of new elections.
So, now that we all have debated it and thought it through, we increasingly recognize that he is no option, not inside and not outside. Thank you, Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir for stating the obvious. (And what does it say about Israeli politics that Itamar Ben-Gvir has been one of the the most mature children in the sand box the past few weeks? And that all the media and even right wing and religious MKs have been villifyiing Smotrich for this stand?)
Here are the only two elegant options, remote though they be, that seem to make any sense:
1. Bibi buys off two characters in Sa’ar’s New Hope Party or maybe even from Benny Gantz’s Blue and White . He gives them a Mitsubishi or even a choice of cars from Kelly’s Blue Book and Edmond’s. He lets them pick the colors and the accessories. They each get a chauffeur and ministry they can be proud of, plus a guaranteed lifetime pension boost by virtue of having been ministers. He can’t give Elkin another Ministry of Silly Walks or yet another convoluted quiltwork ministry like Minister of Education for Grades 3, 5, and 8 plus Minister of Coffee and Minister of Shesh-Besh. The thing is that no one in Sa’ar’s party is made of the stuff that Raful Eitan unearthed when he put Goldfarb and Segev into the Knesset, so it is harder to find two jumpers.
2. That leaves the other option. It is elegant and has a real Occam’s Razor aspect — the simplest, most obvious solution. Either Bennett or Sa’ar — if need be, they flip a coin — becomes Prime Minister for one year. Netanyahu stays with Sarah in the Prime Minister’s residence on Balfour Street, and a second residence — which had been prepared for Benny Gantz — goes to Bennett or Sa’ar. Netanyahu gets designated as Deputy Prime Minister through the first year. If he gets convicted over the next twelve months, he is out of rotation and the Likud picks someone else like Nir Barkat for the remaining three years. If he gets acquitted, then Bibi gets to be Prime Minster for the last three years. Sa’ar thus keeps his promise in the first year not to serve under Netanyahu, and thereafter he can serve because he can say that he never would serve under Netanyahu as long as Bibi had the indictment hanging, but now that he is exonerated, Sa’ar can serve under him.
2A. Bennett was an excellent Defense Minister, and he also would make an excellent Foreign Minister. It is not clear what ministry Sa’ar would be excellent at heading, although he was a very good Education Minister. Ayelet Shaked would make a good foreign minister or justice minister. Netanyahu would want to keep the justice ministry close, though, for someone like Amir Ohana who was a bulldog acolyte in that role. The Finance Ministry would fit Nir Barkat or Yisrael Katz, each of whom is loyal to Netanyahu, but also vying to replace him as Likud head when he steps down. Miri Regev is always fun to have around for something, doesn’t matter what. Betzalel Smotrich was excellent at Transportation, but he could be moved around. Wouldn’t it be nice to have him at Education (won’t happen)? Shas and UTJ always land in the Interior, Religion, Housing, and ministries like those. No government will agree to have Ben-Gvir be a minister just yet, and that is OK. He can use the time to build a reputation and public image as a normal MK, which he has been doing so far. In time, others will get used to him and see him as normal enough.
2B. The key is that the Likud gets the last three years of the four-year deal. That somewhat resolves the quirk that a Bennett with seven seats out of 120 or a Sa’ar with six ends up as Prime Minister for a year. But that is why they get only the first year while Likud gets the rest. Really, there will not be much difference as to who is the Prime Minister from among them. If no one “annexed” the Jordan Valley or Area C in Judea and Samaria amid the Trump-Pompeo period, it will not happen the next four years anyway. Dealing with Hamas and Hezbollah will not differ much regardless of which of those three is at the top.
The problem comes down to ego. Bennett’s, Sa’ar’s and Liberman’s as well as Netanyahu’s. Bibi is now like Lou Gehrig or Cal Ripken, amid an unbroken longest-ever streak. If he agrees to let someone else be Prime Minister for a year, the Twelve-Years-in-a-Row streak ends. He can keep adding to his Most-Years-Altogether record, but that ends the Dozen Years streak. So there is that.
It is amazing that these seem to be the calculations now in place — personal animosities, whether to rely on Arab Muslims associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, how a deal will affect Netanyahu’s place in the Guinness Book of Records, and which model of car is the most enticing with which to buy off a politician and make him a cabinet minister. But they all seem preferable to fifth elections which everyone in the country knows will net the same results.
Rabbi Prof. Dov Fischer is adjunct professor of law at two prominent Southern California law schools, Senior Rabbinic Fellow at the Coalition for Jewish Values, congregational rabbi of Young Israel of Orange County, California, and has held prominent leadership roles in several national rabbinic and other Jewish organizations. He was Chief Articles Editor of UCLA Law Review, clerked for the Hon. Danny J. Boggs in the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, and served for most of the past decade on the Executive Committee of the Rabbinical Council of America. His writings have appeared in The Weekly Standard, National Review, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, Jerusalem Post, American Thinker, Frontpage Magazine, and Israel National News. Other writings are collected at www.rabbidov.com .
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/305404
Here is a very good historical analogy relating the trials of these endless elections to the feud between Saul and David. I found it to be a very interesting read.
The Jewish Press has a poll going on where Bennett’s ‘negotiation posturing” will lead – it lets you vote – and these are the results so far:
“Will Naftali Bennett…
Help drag Israel into another round of general elections.
38 votes 39%
Form some sort of rotation government with Netanyahu.
28 votes 29%
Form a coalition with the Left, ultimately crowning Yair Lapid as Prime Minister.
16 votes 16%
Try to form a coalition with the Left, but will fail to do so.
16 votes 16%
Total Votes: 98 April 30, 2021 – May 15, 2021”
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/polls-news/will-naftali-bennett/2021/04/30/
@ Sebastien Zorn:
Yay, if they don’t secure direct elections of PM first.
@ Bear Klein:
I would like to highlight the final sentence in this post-mortem of a fallen leader:
This author, unfortunately, buried what should have been his leading line as thoroughly as he seems to have buried any hope of Netanyahu’s chances of success. Given Netanyahu’s record of political recoveries I believe this is a bit premature, though the media will take any opportunity to celebrate any perceived wound against this leader as being fatally delivered. But during their celebrations, it should, however, not be overlooked that even if Bennett could be successful in bringing Labor, Lapid and their Leftist contingents into the gov’t, it will have been accomplished as the will of a supposedly strong member of the Right, whose ideological believes are presumably opposed to those Leftist whose elevation to power he is currently securing against the efforts of his own Right wing camp. Furthermore, he does so while the Right wing camp holds one of their strongest electoral victories in some time. I know that these facts plague the minds of the Leftist members in negotiations with Bennett and, I have to confess, their expressed consternations do give me hope in these matters. So while the liberals are salivating over their return to power and the media celebrates the fall of a political giant, I, for the moment, will trust to Netanyahu’s miraculous record of last minute recoveries and to Bennett’s record of dedication to what he has claimed publicly as his world view and ignore the public theater on display. After all, we can always hold the funeral rights after the patient has died.
@ Bear Klein:
and to Ted: What do you say we start a gentleman’s betting pool, i.e., no money changes hands. Or, conversely, the losers promise to make a minimum one-time contribution to Israpundit. How many believe there will be new elections. Yay or Nay (not in Korean. In Korean, both Yay and Nay mean yes. LOL. I once thought it would be hilarous to have a skit about the introduction of Roberts Rules of Order into Korea amongst bewigged (british style) jurists, and the hilarious confusion ensuing if they tried to count the yays and nays. ) I vote aye, uh, Yay.
Full article at : https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/the-fall-of-netanyahu/
@ Ted Belman:
I thought that at one point Ted. I do not believe any negotiations are going on between Bibi and Bennett. I think the clock is almost done for the Likud to change leaders and no one trusts Bibi. There is only 3 days left on Bibi’s mandate and this includes Sabbat.
I think there will either be a unity government or new elections.
I believe that Bennett Saar are negotiating with the anti Netanyahu bloc to strengthen their position with Netanyahu. The stronger they look and the closer they are to getting a deal, the greater the concessions Bibi will make.
Bibi does not want to be in the opposition. Neither does Likud.
The negotiations with the center/left are dominating the headlines. This is to detract from the real negotiations that are going on between Bibi and Bennet.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
I had a film class in college and it studied many great films before sound was added and naturally they were in black and white.
They have their place in film history but I am most curious if we will ever see holographic movies. Supposedly in 10 years we will be able to have holographic phone conversations in lieu of the current video calls like Facetime.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
That’s because the colors distract the viewer and change the meaning of the film’s narrative.
Another thing is that when every movie was in black in white, they used different techniques of filming them.
If you watch an old movie in black and white and then in color, it will be like watching two different productions entirely – your attention will be drawn to different things, the meaning will change, etc.
@ Edgar G.:
Well, you know that might not have been such a bad thing. I never saw Star Trek in color until the ’80s. I saw it when it first came out in the 60s but on a black and white set. It was better in black and white. In fact, the quality of acting and writing has seemed to bear in inverse relationship to the development of special effects in movies and television. Look at all the great television from the late 40s, 50s and early 60s, that has yet to be equaled. Have you noticed? Can’t even watch most of the dreck that’s out there now. I mostly watch dramas from East Asia, especially S. Korea.
@ Bear Klein:
I just read that Bennett is considering using the Shas/UTJ to not vote against his attempt to form a gov’t in case he can’t reach necessary 61 support. Much better idea than empowering Raam. It will be interesting to see what comes of this, but I will be surprised if this turns out to be more than a move to get better concessions from Netanyahu.
@ peloni1986:They (UTJ, Shas) do not like to stay out of the government historically. They try to ensure that they get their funding for yeshiva’s and the child care allowance is not reduced plus have influence on draft laws.
So in the end of the day if they view as they can have from their standpoint an influence to benefit their constituents they will try and find a palatable way to join the coalition or have influence. Since Lieberman will be part of the coalition their will be challenges. Bennett will try hard to get them into the coalition plus he will protect the yeshiva’s and child allowances.
We will see what will happen as there are many moving parts.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
It happened. I landed in Israel in 1976. Colour TV was well advanced. But in Israel it was B&W. I was told that it was a Govt.policy of minimum benefits in line with the general austerity that typified Israel then. It took 6-10 years to get a phone, the Sachnut provided each Oleh with a tiny spirit cooking stove about a foot tall. MINIMUMS reigned. I don’t knwo if this applied to Govt ministers cars…?? I think they splurged on Volvos then for ministers. They were commonly known as “The Israeli Rolls Royce”. When I first heard they were supplying Rolls to Ministers I was shocked, until it was explained to me.
@ Bear Klein:
Do you suspect UTJ or Shas will join? I heard this is unlikely, but I was surprised by this.
A real possibility exists now that Bennett will the first Prime Minister in rotation with Lapid. It appears New Hope and Yamina will merge for a party of 13.
This will be a unity government with Bennett and Saar having the majority of ministers. They appear to have gotten the power to veto things they do not agree with. So this will not be a leftist controlled government as detractors or Bibi loyalists are claiming.
It is not all done yet, so as Yogi Berra said it ain’t over unit its over.
Bennett and Saar are trying to leave room for the UTJ and/or Shas to join this government.
Dov Fischer presents a brutally honest review and analysis of the Romper Room priorities which predominate among the competition for leadership of the state while another Right-wing victory lies ready to be cast aside as the left is disproportionately awarded undue influence by a candidate elevated unduly with a disproportionately unsupported party from the right. But as I have noted in the past, the electorate was fully aware of the misplaced priorities of these many contestants as well as the ensuing complications such a battle of egos as this would bring about, and yet, they chose to empower many small minds rather than a single leader. There could have been no surprises in the deadlocked battle of wills that would result from this round of elections. That is, of course, except for Bennett’s decision to drive so strongly to the left, and also the fact that all parties have misguidedly chosen to seek the support from the Muslim Brotherhood. These two scenarios would seem too unacceptably bizarre for even the most attentive members of the electorate to have contemplated. So, when we return to yet another round of elections, I am puzzled by who will pay a greater price for such soured judgement as has been so well displayed in this poorly played comedy of errors as the Right-wing is denied the formation of a gov’t yet again.
Did this really happen or is he joking?
Media disinformation is full throttle, non-stop! Goebbels prescription.
Just like in the US.
Generals goals are to solve problem as quickly as possible with minimal casualties. Politicians look further down the horizon; time is not an issue.
All the famous generals as indicated in the early part of the article, made major mistakes.
Most don’t have what it takes to be a great politician. Why repeating the same thing again and again expecting a different outcome!
No intent to insult the generals. But look at the facts. This ain’t high science.
What a mess. As a diaspora Jew I support whoever is Prime Minister and Israel. Netanyahu certainly gets credit for Shepard in Israel through the 8 hostile years of Obama and basking in the 4 benevolent years of Trump. Now we have 45 or 93 more months of Biden(Obama 3 and 4) to survive. Sounds like Joseph’s dream of 7 fat cows and 7 lean.
Well, it seems that Bennet is headed towards a rotation with Lapid and throwing Bibi out altogether. It was well said in the article “People who are honest for several decades gain a reputation that they can be trusted. People who deceive too often wake up one day to find that lots of people do not want to play with them any more.” Bennet has a good reason to distrust Bib and suspect that even if he agrees to let someone else be the PM, it would be too good to be true – so it would probably NOT be true. Bennet prefers to trust to Lapid, who had never cheated him…
Best satire I’ve read in a long time. Sounds like the plot of an Ephraim Kishon movie. Ha Ha. My hat’s off to the author.
Bennett supposedly wanted a year and a half as PM in negotiations with Bibi. That turned out to be a no-go.
About 5 days to go for Bibi to make a deal if anyone trusts him enough to do it as the article by Dov Fisher clearly points out is a major problem.