JaFaJ INTELLIGENCE April 14, 2023
1. Summary: the King of Jordan has dispatched his Prime Minister to wealthy Qatar to seek extra financial aid. It is unlikely that Qatar will be providing any additional assistance to Jordan because of its recent reconsolidation with Saudi Arabia and also Saudi Arabia’s normalization with Iran. These political developments have stripped the King of any significance that he has ever had as the “semi-official middleman” between all parties. In addition, the King’s recklessness and arrogant positions and attitudes has cost him friends in the region, especially with the Arab Gulf states who are conscious of their honour and dignity. Strapped for cash and profoundly disliked by his people, the King might face serious public protests and unrest by his subjects by the summer of this year, with no sign from any of his fellow Arab rulers being able or willing to help Abdullah avoid his fate.
2. According to Petra, Jordan’s state news agency, Jordan’s Prime Minister Bisher Al-Khasawneh flew to Qatar on April 9th, 2023, where it was reported that the “Prime Minister and a ministerial team began a two-day visit to Doha on Monday.” What’s unique about the visit is that Jordan’s King Abdullah rarely allows officials to conduct external visits. He only lets his Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, conduct such visits but rarely meets with governments of wealth or significance, such as Qatar. This made it very unusual for the King to allow his Prime Minister to pay an extended visit to Qatar, one of the King’s most staunch allies.
3. JaFaJ sources within the Jordanian government have confirmed that Al-Khasawneh’s visit was ordered by the King and his wife. A Jordanian General Intelligence Department source reported, “The King needs Qatar’s money and has been begging them for aid since last November, but to no avail. As a result, he took a different approach and sent the Prime Minister to do the begging and save himself [the King] some dignity.” Asked why he thought Qatar was no longer giving the King aid, the source responded, “It’s not just Qatar.” The source continued, “Except for the UAE and Oman, Gulf Arabs have not been providing any substantial help.”
4. The source added, “They are no longer convinced that they need to support Jordan, and they are not desperate for our help like before.” The source continued, “It is because they have on-going secret talks with Israel, and they are no longer afraid of Iran after Saudi Arabia and Iran signed a peace deal.” The source confided with JaFaJ that “as a result, they do not need the King to carry messages to either the Iranians or the Israelis and act as the middleman.” He added, “Now we [the Government of Jordan] are nobody to them.” His conclusion was surprising, “It is much worse than you think. Some of those Gulf States have established ties with the King’s growing opposition in London and, elsewhere, something they would not have dared to do just a year ago.”
5. JaFaJ sources inside the King’s office, the Royal Hashemite Court, confirmed that Al-Khaswaneh’s visit to Qatar was mainly ordered by the King’s wife, Queen Rania, who told him “To get as much financial support he could, even if just a few million dollars – anything.” The sources confirmed that Arab Gulf states have not been providing aid like they used to. [COMMENT: Several Arab Gulf states follow the leadership of Saudi Arabia, and the Saudis have lost a lot of confidence in Jordan’s monarchy due to King Abduallah’s ties to Iran which he had refused to end despite Iran’s hostility to Saudi Arabia. While Saudi-Jordanian times are not exactly wrong, some Saudi aid still flows, and the old days of substantial Saudi grants are gone. END COMMENT]
The Qatari Well Has Dried Up; Jordan A “Foreign Aid Blackhole”
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6. Despite being one of the world’s top gas exporters, the wealthy Qataris are cautious regarding how they spend their money, especially when Jordan is involved. A source close to Qatar’s Royal Emiri Court confided to JaFaJ, “Qatar no longer sees that it should provide any further help to Jordan’s King.” The source added, “We have provided a lot, and we employ tens of thousands of his [the King’s] people for very little appreciation.” The source continued, “We have our concerns and children to provide for, and those need our money more than anyone else.” He added, “Our political support for the King is unwavering; His Royal Highness Prince Tameem highly respects King Abdullah, but sorry, we no longer have the money to hand out to Jordan’s foreign aid blackhole.”
7. A British source in Qatar confirmed with JaFaJ that Qatar’s former passionate support for Abdullah is no more. The source added, “The Qataris are no longer inclined to provide blind support for the Muslim Brotherhood and those who support them, and Abdullah has been the Muslim Brotherhood’s sweetheart for a long time, and that came with inflated Qatari respect, but no more because Qatar has changed many of her policies since it has reconciled with Saudi Arabia.”
Conclusion
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8. Arrogant, reckless and considerably unrealistic about his assumptions, Jordan’s King has always managed to get away with provoking his Arab allies as much as he can and failing to appreciate their help. Nonetheless, the tide has changed not just in the Middle East, but in the Gulf, especially with the normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both changes have left King Abdulla unable to play his favourite game: playing both ends against the middle.
9. The recent normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has impacted the King’s importance to both countries and the region. Very aligned with Iran, Abdullah has served as both a mediator and a message carrier between the Gulf and Iran, and he cannot claim this role now. Abdullah’s tightest alliance is with Muhammad Ben Zayed, the President of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar’s archenemy, who has occasionally been hostile to Saudi Arabia. Nonetheless, Ben Zayed is not known to be as generous with his aid as the Saudis, and by siding with him, Abdullah has made both the Saudis and Qataris weary of him.
10. With his government being cash strapped and on the verge of bankruptcy, Jordan’s King is unlikely to find any Arab ruler that will give him a blank check, as they did in 2018 when Arab Gulf states gave him USD 2.5 billion to tackle and eliminate the protests then sweeping Jordan. As Abdullah is expected to face further regional political isolation, his already disgruntled people are likely to become even more furious over his actions as Jordan’s economy is worsening by the day. As a result, further unrest and unprecedented protests are likely to hit the Hashemite Kingdom during the summer of 2023.
FRANK ADAM-
I have an old very large Map Book from 1926, co-incidentally the last year that Hejaz was an independent state. Since then, of course, it is no more than a geographical area of Saudi Arabia, and the Hashemites will never go back there.
You are more acute than I, who has not seen any references to “too many on this channel are too ready, to see the Hashemites to “go back (to the Hejaz”.
I see the rest of your post as being full of flaws of the illusory kind.
The kingling is struggling to keep his (financial) nose above water and is a major instigator of Jew-Hate towards Israel, useful only as a “go-between” Arab states and Israel. This seems to have or is petering out..
In ref to another post, whilst no doubt influential in The Muslim the Brotherhood the mini-king has never been touted as its leader, whose policies, I don’t believe he directs.
@Peloni
I forwarded your comment to Mudar.
@Peloni awesome word of the day, “interdigitization.”
@Frank Adams
I strongly disagree with you on this point. First of all, Abdullah would never return to the Hejaz (lucky for them), as he has purchased great properties around the world with his abuse of the treasury of the Jordanian people. Likely he would go to Europe or America, but he could go wherever he likes, as his parting destination matters very little in fact, beyond the point that he departs and never comes back. He has proven himself a false friend to everyone who ever called him friend just as he has proven himself to be a false ally to everyone who has ever called him an ally. Also, the advantage he has played in standing between Israel and the Arabs has seen him abuse both sides to advantage himself and benefit few others at the same time. More specifically, the cold peace between he and Israel is just barely cool, as he incites wars upon the Jews from the very neighbors who live within Israel proper, while he also stirs the Muslim Brotherhood to strike Israel across established borders. He is part of the status quo which prevents Israel from finding any solutions and he stirs his own people with the antisemitic teachings which we are all quite aware. Hence, maintaining the rule by this scion of fake kings has little to speak in support of doing so, particularly when we recognize the fact that he is only able to maintain his grasp of power due to his being supported by those who he betrays and wars against on a daily basis. Indeed we have a very important opportunity to replace him with an an ally who would be a strong ally, a friend who would be a great friend, and an democrat who would introduce a revolutionary opportunity to his people and the region as well. Mudar has committed to changing the education system to teach history rather than propaganda, to end UNRWA, return Jordanian citizenship to all the Pals, ban Radical Islamists beginning with the Brotherhood, accept the voluntary migration of the Pals living in squalor of the PA and Hamas, and much much more.
As to the democracies which have failed around the Middle East, I would question which Arab democracy was actually founded by an honest liberal democrat. Also, the benefit of having an honest ally leading Jordan which supports Israel, and defends Israel’s rights, interests and existence even to the Europeans who belittle our state is a prize beyond any price. Indeed, Mudar has publicly and vociferously chastised those who support the status quo for the Pals and Israelis alike, for the derogatory derision which are lodged against our state, also maintains his people in a unique state of squalor and dysfunction. The prospect of the JO provides the potential of being both a bargain and a gift to both the Arabs and the Jews, capable of instituting peace rather than simply bargaining for a better reason to avoid peace. The interdigitization of the New Jordan’s economy with that of Israel’s, will render it to be a symbiotic and dependent relationship which will act to secure the peace into the future as well. It will both pacify its economically bereft population and provide a true model for what peaceful coexistence can achieve when it is pursued by actors who actually have a desire of achieving such a coeval partnership in peace.
For all these reasons and more, I suggest that we not persist in propping up this terrorist warmonger who hopefully sits as the final occupant of the house of Hashemites, who have no interest in prosperity, no concept of reciprocity, and every interest in continuing the endless cycle of violence which plagues the region, and more specifically Israel.
Too many on this channel are too ready to see the Hashemites go back to (the Hejaz?). However if Jordan implodes there is no visible good replacement; not even Saudi.
Others – Nasser and Ba’athists in Syria and Iraq besides Arafat in Black September have already had a go at trying to bag Jordan for themselves but politically it is an “air bag” that keeps Iraq, Egypt, Syria and Israel from colliding with each other in several permutations – all unwelcome especially to Israel.
None of the Arab attempts at republics in the succession to the European 20th century moment in the Middle East – or elsewhere – have been democratic successes even if economically viable after a fashion. Let it ferment and it might actually emerge as a reasonable place on phosphates and tourist money – and continue to keep Syria, Iraq and Saudi off Israel’s Eastern frontier.