T. Belman: Ignore this story. It is an attempt by the king to prevent his ouster by the Jordanian Army supported by the US, the UK and Israel. It will very short lived.
Ahmad Sharawi | September 13, 2024
The Muslim Brotherhood’s Islamic Action Front (IAF) secured 31 of 138 seats in Jordanian parliamentary elections on September 10, the most of any party. The IAF achieved its best result in 35 years by emphasizing its support for Hamas and capitalizing on economic distress in Jordan, where the official unemployment rate stands at 21.4 percent.
The elections were the first since the passage of the 2022 electoral law, which reserved 41 seats for political parties in a bid to strengthen the party system and enhance participation. The IAF won 18 of the reserved seats, while no other party won more than four. Overall, the pro-establishment National Charter party secured second place with 21 seats, while the similarly aligned al-Eradah claimed 19. Voters also elected 39 independents. Turnout stood at 32.5 percent, an improvement from 29 percent in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, though still lower than the 36 percent turnout in 2016.
King Abdullah II formed a political modernization committee in 2021. The following year, parliament approved 26 of the 30 measures the committee proposed. The monarchy continues to play the dominant role in all aspects of politics and government, although the modernization process is supposed to pave the way for a cabinet backed by a parliamentary majority within 12 years.
The 2022 election law introduced a dual-ballot system: one local and one national. As under the previous system, the local ballot allows voters to choose a candidate who is either independent or party-affiliated. The national ballot, reserved exclusively for political parties, ensures the allocation of 41 seats to party representatives.
The IAF’s results marked the party’s strongest performance since 1989, when it won 22 of 80 seats. The party has led pro-Hamas protests in Jordan during the Gaza War, aligning itself with leftist coalitions and positioning itself as a prominent voice in the anti-Israel movement on the Jordanian street. In a country where 50 to 60 percent of the population is of Palestinian descent, the party’s pro-Hamas message resonated widely. Political analyst Areeb Rantawi concluded that “election results were largely shaped by the Islamist movement’s stance during the war on Gaza.”
The IAF’s success also coincides with deepening economic hardship in Jordan, which the World Bank describes as being “trapped in a low-growth equilibrium averaging 2.2 percent over the past decade.” The government’s inability to end the economic stagnation has led to mounting public discontent. Many Jordanians have also grown frustrated by the parliament’s failure to hold cabinet members accountable for their inaction. In this climate of disillusionment, the Islamists have won a reputation as the only political force able and willing to challenge the status quo and demand accountability from the government.
The IAF also made a strategic decision to broaden its base by reaching out to East Bank Jordanians (i.e., those without Palestinian roots) who are traditionally pro-monarchy and not aligned with Islamist movements. In the North and South Bedu, two key electoral districts with significant tribal populations, the IAF came out ahead thanks in part to the party’s inclusion of prominent tribal figures on its electoral lists.
In the wake of the elections, IAF leader Murad Adaileh described the results as a “popular referendum” calling for Jordan to annul its peace treaty with Israel and support Hamas. He further emphasized that the incoming parliament must stand firm against the hardline Israeli right. While the government in Amman has often echoed such statements in a bid to defuse public anger, Washington should emphasize to Jordan the critical importance of its peace with Israel and the need to ensure that incendiary Islamist rhetoric does not undermine regional security.
Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), focusing on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. Follow him on X: @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD.
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