T. Belman. Liberman now stands at 9 seats. Bibi is weakened. If the polls are right, Blue and White will be the biggest party. But the Right under Shaked and the religious parties will not abandon Likud. I don’t see a way around. Liberman must be bought off. Let’s hope he doesn’t up the ante. Before he just wanted his law on drafting the Hareidi to be accepted. He has almost doubled his seats. How can Bibi and the Hareidi say no?
Surveys indicate Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu remains kingmaker of next coalition
A pair of television polls aired Sunday gave an alliance of the New Right and Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Ayelet Shaked 12-13 seats in parliament, if September’s Knesset elections were held today. Shaked was announced earlier Sunday as the New Right’s new leader.
If Shaked’s New Right and Rafi Peretz’s URWP ran separately, they would pick up six and five seats respectively, for a combined total of 11, according to a Channel 12 TV news survey. However, together on a combined slate with the far-right Otzma Yehudit party and under Shaked’s leadership, the alliance would get 13 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, the poll found.
That two-seat gain came at the expense of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud, which the survey predicted would win 28 seats and be overtaken by the centrist Blue and White as the largest party with 29 seats.
With New Right and URWP running separately, Likud would win 30 seats while Blue and White would have 29, the survey indicated.
The third-largest party would likely be the expected combined slate of Arab parties with 11 seats.
Yisrael Beytenu, led by hawkish MK Avigdor Liberman, would win 9 seats, up from the five it won in the April elections, according to the poll.
The two ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, would win eight and seven seats respectively. The recently announced alliance of the Labor and Gesher parties was predicted to win seven seats while the left-wing Meretz and Israel Democratic, led by former prime minister Ehud Barak, would both hover just above the threshold with four seats each.
Zehut, the quasi-libertarian party, was predicted to gain just 1.8% of the vote, far short of the 3.75% needed to beat the threshold for entry into parliament.
Otzma Yehudit was not expected to gain enough support on its own to pass the threshold.
A poll by the Kan public broadcaster on Sunday found New Right would get eight seats and URWP would pick up four if they ran separately, which was identical to the 12 seats they were predicted by the survey to win if they ran on a joint list.
Like the Channel 12 poll, the Kan survey had Blue and White narrowly beating out Likud as the largest party if the Shaked-led alliance is indeed formed, with 29 for Gantz’s party and 28 for Likud.
However, Kan gave Yisrael Beytenu 10 seats and the same for the combined Arab list.
In both polls, Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu is again forecast to be kingmaker, with neither right-wing or left-wing blocs able to form a ruling coalition of more than 60 seats without his right-wing secularist faction.
It was Liberman’s refusal to join a Netanyahu-led coalition after the April elections due to a negotiation impasse with ultra-Orthodox parties that resulted in the dissolving of parliament and new elections being set for September 17. Netanyahu fumed at Liberman over his refusal and Likud officials have since vowed they won’t form a government with Yisrael Beytenu.
The polls were published shortly after New Right announced that Shaked would be taking over as leader of the party for the upcoming elections.
Although Shaked has strong backing to lead a joint slate of smaller right-wing parties, the current URWP leader MK Peretz opposes the idea, and allegedly so does Netanyahu.
A UNRWP official told the Times of Israel that Netanyahu called Peretz three times in the last 24 hours urging him to refuse a merger led by Shaked.
The Channel 12 online survey, carried out by Mano Geva, polled 502 participants on Sunday with a 4.4% margin of error.
Details were not available for the Kan poll.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Yep lots of nutty possibilities and then even more.
@ Adam Dalgliesh: There is still a third possibility, however unlikely. If the first person that the President authorizes to try to form a government is unable to do so in six weeks, the President can ask someone else to try. That adds up to twelve weeks. Even if candidate no. 2 fails, the Knesset cannot be dissolved unless it votes to dissolve itself. Negotiations could then continue indefinitely, until someone informs the President that he now thinks he has lined up 61 members to support a new government. 61 members could also sign a petition asking the President to appoint one of their number as the new Prime Minister. In that case the President is required to comply.
If the majority of knesset members are not willing to vote to dissolve the Knesset even after two leaders have failed to build a successful coalition, then the Knesset remains in session indefinitely while neotiations continue. And whoever was Prime Minister when the most recent election was held would stay on indefinitely until the Knesset finally settles on a new government. This scenario might actually play out, because the legislators know how unpopular the do-over election is with the Israeli public, and they may decide not to anger the people with yet a third election in one year.
That scenario might enable Bibi to remain Prime Minister for a long time. Among his many political skills is the ability to stall for as long as he needs to to wear his opponents down.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Bibi is an excellent campaigner and just might get more seats than the current polls.
I am NOT operating under the assumption that Gantz gets the most seats. My thought process is that they again would be the second largest party. If they were part of a unity government they would be the second largest party.
My hypothetical’s are based that to get to a coalition IF a unity government is needed (some right wing parties like the Likud or UTJ/Shas) plus Blue/White. Anyway as I keep saying it is way too soon to really know much.
@ Bear Klein: All true, Bear. But I just don’t see the far right parties agreeing to be in a government led by Gantz and Lapid, because their ideological-political differences are just too great. The Haredi parties and Liud might agree to be part of such a government. But I think Likud won’t join if objects strenuously. He commands a lot of respect and loyalty in his own party as a result of his more than ten years as their leader.
Of course, we are operating under the assumption that the Likud won’t be the strongest party. But Bibi, despite all his problems, is a better campaigner and more charismatic than his opponents. He might just pull off winning the largest number of seats for Likud and being in the “driver’s seat” when coalition negotiations begin. If that should happen, it is Gantz and Lapid who may have to trim their sails in order to be included in a coalition government.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:I do not believe she would ever recommend Gantz to be PM.
Correct they will not support a government with Gantz in it appears at this point if what she just said can be taken at face value as unchangeable. She also said she would not agree to a third set of elections, well what happens if a unity government is the only way to do that. What if they would be the kingmakers and could keep the unity government from doing things she strongly objects to?
Too many variables to actually know.
Except if the merger between United Right, Otzma and New Right does occur. Then it is possible they will be the third largest party and have a lot of clout.
So it way too premature to count the seats of the parties and what compromises will occur, especially if neither the right or the left have enough seats to form a non unity government.
@ Bear Klein: This means that the New Right party will not support a government headed by Gantz or a coalition between Likud and Blue and White. How significant that is dubious, however, since the New Right is unlikely to win enough seats have much clout in the next Knesset, unless the right bloc as a whole, minus Leiberman who has now more or less joined the left bloc, wins 61 or more seats. If the right bloc as a whole, including the haredim and the UNited Right, get less than that number of seats, Shaked’s party will have little influence on coalition negotiations.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
@ Bear Klein:
Neat that he could do that. No discussion with may, corbyn, Tom, dick and harry. None of his choice have to spend weeks before committees. Did not ask, seek advice from HRH, nor have his (if there is one) wife mouthing off. Day one down to bus. Don’t know when the next required erection day is so don’t have to spend time fighting off those back stabbers. But he’s still a loose cannon, did nought as mayor of london. His only concern now is tata e u.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/266462
See
(today’s BBC. Boris Johnson is everything that a Prime Minister should be. For years, he has told the British people what he wants their government to do. Running for Prime minister, he brimmed over with specific policy changes that he promised to implement as Prime Minister. On his first day in office, he took decisive action by replacing up to seventeen senior officials or moving them to different posts. And he again described in detail what he hopes to accomplish as Prime Minister–such as improving home care for the elderly. And he announced that “the buck stops here.” He absolutely brims over with energy and drive. Has a great sense of humor, too. His conversation is laced with quips and wisecracks, even when he is making serious points. More or less the exact opposite personality type to Benny Gantz.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Ayelet Shaked is by education a computer engineer and is not a lawyer. She and Bennett were very successful high-tech business people.
She is a mother of two I believe. Her husband is a fighter pilot. In the US Jewish mothers want their daughters to marry a doctor. In Israel the equivalent social status applies to IAF pilots. Her husband Ofir retired last year after I believe 26 years of service.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:You make assumptions everything a politician is quoted saying should be taken on face value as true (meaning Barkat’s statement). This statement could also be good cover in the event Bibi could NOT form a coalition as there was draft an alternative MK from the Likud to be PM as the compromise. Maybe Barkat is one of the alternative Likud MKs various parties could agree to. He is very personable and competent. He was a good Mayor in Jerusalem and big shot business creator.
Look, I do not know at the end of the day what the vote count will be and it will still take another week to have the parties finalized by law. After the polls will some additional relevance (in-spite being historically bad in Israel).
I have some friends in a couple of the political parties. Some people in various parties have been kicking around alternative names in the Likud in the event Bibi is unable to form a coalition again. I do not know if they would get enough recommendations for an alternative name. Then I do not know how many it will take from the Likud. Publicly the following has been noticed.
Bennett has publicly stated someone other than Bibi is possible, Gafni (UTJ) has hinted at it in public. Blue/White have stated directly in public they are open to someone other than Bibi. Liberman is clearly open to it. The numbers need to add to 61 or more. This is possible! Anyone can create all the hypothetical situations they want. Israeli law allows any MK to recommend any elected MK to be PM. So Likud rules can NOT prevent this. Yes, for this to happen Bibi would need to be unable to form a coalition and Likud members or enough of them would need to believe Bibi was on his way out, as there is political risk. Nothing that does not happen periodically in Israeli politics.
The ONLY thing I am sure of and willing to bet whatever sum you want the Arab Joint List Party will NOT be part of any coalition.
@ Bear Klein: Bear, I am well aware that Shaked is a brilliant woman, a highly accomplished lawyer and politician. She was an eexcellent Minister of Justice–almost certainly the best in Israel’s history. I agree with nearly all of her opinions. I was not trying to say that she was just a pretty face.
There were several reasons why I have mentioned her good looks. First, it is probably the reason Bibi fied her from her job and doesn’t want her in the Likud. It is not that he doen’t like her, but that his wife Sarah is afraid that he likes her too much. She is said to hate any beautiful woman being close to her husband. The Israeli papers claim that she always insisted on sitting in on all meetings between Bibi and Shaked. She is essentially apolitical, but is said to be an insanely jealous wife. Bibi’s behavior in this younger years makes this understandable.
Stupid things like that shouldn’t impact politics. But sometimes they do.
Another reason I brought up Shaked’s beauty is the very frequent photographs and videos of her in Israeli press. Possibly after Bibi, Shaked is the politician that the Israeli press most likes to photograph. My point was that the fact that there are so many articles about, and photoimages of, Shaked, idoes not necessarily mean that she has overwhelming political support. Some newspaer readesr may just like to gawk at her.
The third reason that I sometimes mention Shaked’s appearance is that I am in love with her. Have been for years. Just can’t help it. Both her face and her mind are extremely attractive. A fairly rare combination in politics.
@ Bear Klein: Nir Barkat’s statement is indeed significant. Notice that while he endorses a coalition government, he is not willing to break with Netanyahu. He will support in a coalition government, but only with Netanyahu as Prime Minister.
I believe that most Likud niks elected to the Knesset will stick to this approach. They will not support a Prime Minister other than Netanyahu unless he agrees to this. Whether he agrees to it will depend first of all of course on the outcome of the election, and secondly, on how he assesses both the national interest and his own personal interest, in view of his need to prepare his defense against the AGs allegations of criminal wrongdoing. But I don’t think his own party will try to force him to step down if he refuses, or even remove him as party leader, if Likud loses the election. Bibi has managed to stack both the Likud Knesset list and the party’s central committee (which must approve any leadership change) with too many of his loyal followers to be removed as party leader without his consent.
While Blue and White may win the election and form the next government, a coalition between Likud and Blue and White seems to me to be unlikely, although possible. One possible way it might come about is if Bibi agrees to serve in some post other than Prime Minister, such as Finance Minister, Foreign Minister or Israeli Ambassador to the United States. THese would be honorable “retirement jobs” for him. But Both Bibi and the Blue and White leaders would have to agree to this compromise.
Even if Blue and White wins the largest number of seats,and there are enough members from the other parties who are willing to serve in a government headed by Gantz and Lapid, there is a danger that this might not happen. Gantz would have to negotiate skillfully, and under a strict six week deadline to bring this off. His lack of previous political experience, and his alleged “tortoise”-like difficulty in making decisions quickly, might mean that he will not prove up to the job. That could result in yet another do-over election. This would the worst and most dangerous possible outcome.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Since I am adamant in my belief that NOT one Jew should ever get moved from his home ever again, I do NOT like Gantz.
Gantz talks like he would be willing to do a Gaza II in Judea/Samaria. I find this absolutely nuts. Give up more land for rockets in the heart of Israel.
@ Bear Klein: Bear, because Gantz has said so little about what he plans to do if elected Prime Minister, the press has tended to focus on when he dodges questions about his plans. When asked about the settlements outside the major blocs, he replied that it would be a subject for future negotiations with the Palestinians, and he prefers to keep his negotiating plan “close to the vest” until negotiations get under way. He doesn’t want to reveal his negotiating position before then. It would be “irrelevant” to do so at the present time, he told the Yediot Ahronot reporter who interviewed him.
Since then, he has given few if any public interviews. Reporters say his speeches tend to be very vague and general about his plans.
In my opinion, it is a bad sign when a politician won’t make any specific commitments or promises during a campaign, and won’t give a clear idea to the public about what he plans to do if elected. It can mean only one of two things: He either doesn’t have a clear idea himself of what he wants to do in office, or he thinks that the people won’t approve of his plans if he reveals them during the campaign. I suspect a bit of both in Gantz’s case. Neither of these possibilities make Gantz a suitable candidate for Prime Minister.
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/likud-mk-nir-barkat-backs-unity-government-with-blue-and-white-party/2019/07/24/
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Thanks for the refresher. When I read that he thought the Gaza evacuation was constructive or positive, I now recall is when I was first completed opposed to Blue.White. Yet I just read this,
Nir Barkat calls for unity government with Blue & White
Likud MK and ex-Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat endorses establishment of unity government with center-left Blue White party.
Bear, also check out this article from the Jewish Press in reference to Benny Gantz’s hints that he may be willing to evacuate settlements outside the major settlement blocs:
@ Bear Klein: Bear, just to check out your earlier question as to the basis for my saying that Gantz has hinted that he might evacuate the Israeli settlements outside the major settlement blocs, check out https://www.timesofisrael.com/holding-cards-close-to-chest-gantz-doesnt-rule-out-settlement-evacuations/ in Times of Israel.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Spllt vote of New Right, Zehut, Gesher, United Right was the issue and not Shaked as number 2. Also some Religious Zionists vote Likud.
The issue was not Shaked.
Side note, I notice you comment on her looks quite a bit. Just for your information
in case you were interested, She is an excellent speaker in Hebrew, quite impressive. In English just adequate.
@ Bear Klein: If Shaked’s electoral appeal is really this great, why did her party fail to pass the electoral threshhold in April? What people say in opinion polls is less an indicator of true popularity than how they actually vote.
I see the following as the most likely outcomes of the election:
Four more years of Bibi. For all his faults and mistakes, this is best possible outcome. We have all noticed Bibi’s poor decisions, such as his decision to appease Hamas and Fatah. But there have also been incredible achievements over the past four years: Improvement in Israel’s relations with numerous foreign countries, including China, Russia, India, the United States, Brazil, Greece, Cyprus, even some Arab countries. A massive expansion in Israel’s overseas trade. A massive increase in new businesses within Israel (the start-up nation). Development of natural gas fields with potential for ennergy independence.
Progress towards resolving Israel’s water crisis through construction of desalination plants, waste water recycling. Development of defensive missile systems, Iron Dome, etc. The security fences in Judea-Samaria and the Gaza envelope, with resultant decrease in fatalities from terror attacks; limiting of illegal immigration through the Sinai fence. New parks and nature preserves. The list can go on and on. Also, Bibi’s charisma and oratorical skills will prove useful in maintaining national morale in the event our enemies force a major war on us.
Likud wins the election, Bibi stays on briefly as Prime Minister, and then resigns to prepare his defense in the criminal cases against him.. Problematical. If the party chooses someone competent to replace him like Gideon Saar, all well and good. If they choose someone incompetent, like Yisrael Katz, not so good. And they may choose Katz, a nonentity, because Bibi values his unswerving loyalty and may try to “anoint” him as his successor. And he will likely oppose the competent Saar because of a stupid personal grudge.
Benny Gantz as Prime Minister. Probably a disaster. Gantz’s colorlessness and lack of charisma, and indecisiveness will make him a weak, ineffectual leader. He will have difficulty making decisions and holding his divided coalition together. The only thing that holds this coalition together is dislike of Bibi. And that won’t hold it together once Bibi is out of office. Likely outcome: government paralysis, followed by a chaotic struggle to replace Gantz.
A coalition government between Likud and Blue and White, with or without other parties An acceptable outcome. But do the leaders of the many parties that will be represented in the new Knesset have the necessary skills and temperment to negotiate a minus 61-member coalition, especially under a strict time deadline? In April-May, they failed to demonstrate these skills. Will it go better this time around? We all hope so. But there is no guarantee it will. The leaders of the many parties that will be represented in the Knesset are deeply divided by both ideology and personal grudges. And Gantz, who will be a key figure in the negotiations, is said to have difficulty making quick decisions.
Yet another failure to form a government The worst possible outcome by far. Complete disillusionment by the people with Israel’s government. Rioting by various outraged interest groups whose funding has been cut off. A prolonged lack of funding for all government departments and programs, including the IDF. The IDF may have difficulty replacing worn-out, antiquated military hardware and obtaining essential supplies. It may even have difficulty paying our brave soldiers.A decisive Arab military victory and the collapse of the state can’t be ruled out.
The following quotes from UTJ’s MK Gafni illustrate what could happen if Bibi is not able to form a right wing/religious coalition. Since the UTJ does not want to be left in the cold and have no influence it would try and find a way to work with the Blue/White (provided they can handle Lapid somehow). Remember in the past they worked with Labor. They want their subsidies to their institutions plus no strong draft legislation. Those are their motivators.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/266371
Two are the kingmakers ,
Liberman working for a Blue-White centrist ( read defeatist ) coalition with his party which will need arab parties support to surrender Judea-Samaria ( and marginally to make a show of trying to impose sherut leumi on the haredim and arabs : evident failure ). Likud will not desert to surrender-defeatism coalition .
Shaked as the new Queen of Likud . Then Bibi too weakened by indictment will have to accept her leadership .
Why suddenly Liberman is credited for 10 mandates when he could only receive 5 in may ? Media stunt …Pollsters stunt . Medias-Pollsters are left-leaning .
full article at https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/the-right-must-unite/
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Bennett has made a lot of enemies among fellow politicians. Shaked is actually generally admired by fellow politicians (especially on the right) including many within the Likud. Not to say Bibi likes her which he does not seem to be the case and actually seems to fear her.
If Bib gets indicted I think all things can change politically within the Likud and in coalition negotiations.
Well we find on Sept 17 and afterwards in coalition negotiations what really happens and if all us arm chair political quarterbacks had a clue to what we were discussing.
@ Edgar G.: Edgar, three factors are working for Blue and White that have nothing to do with Gantz. One is that Bibi has been in office for a long time, and people always seem to want a change when one leader and one party has been in charge for a long time. Their instinct tells them whenever one man is in a position of authority for a long time he tends to become arrogant and dictatorial, out of touch with “ordinary” people, etc. The second is of course the likely indictment hanging over Bibi like an albatross around his neck. The third is Leiberman’s desertion, and his skilled exploitation of the widespread dissatisfaction with the haredi power, which he is skillfully exploiting on the campaign trail.
The public’s attention is focused on their doubts about Bibi, not on the qualifications of his opponent. When and if Gantz becomes Prime Minister, they’l find out what it is like living with a tortoise as Prime Minister.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
His own coterie has publicly said that Gantz is like a tortoise, that he takes forever to make up his mind about even the most trivial thing, that he just sits and stares….
@ Ted Belman:
The only way we’ll find out if he’s indispensable is if someone else becomes P.M. and the present very dangerous times are not ably handled by the new PM.
Vengeful and jealous that he is, I believe that he has shown himself, time after time, to be a political marvel-man. Even now, with all the polls constantly against LIKUD, he is always picked as the best man to be PM by a large margin. Which is why I can’t understand the very good showing by Gantz and his gang of incompetents….
After all, with Gantz not only being a failed general, but also a political nonentity with NO experience, how can he even get that 25-29% that he does get.
There’s some mystery here….???
Gantz is likely to make a weak and ineffectual Prime Minister. Part of his problem is his his uncharismatic personality. He comes across as very dull. Everyone agrees that his speeches are boring, and that he rarely gives a clear idea of how he intended to govern, and what policies he will adopt as Prime minister. He mainly speaks in platitudes. It is hard to see how a Prime Minister with military but not politial experience could keep order within his own very fractius coalition, or conduct effective diplomacy abroad, as Bibi has done. Israel under his leadership will probably drift, which is not a good thing.
@ Bear Klein: Bear, to answer your question, my personal opinion is no to both questions. Israeli laws governing the electoral system and the internal workings of the Knesset give Bibi a clear advantage if he wants to remain the leader of the Likud (not necessarily the same thing as Prime Minister). Bibi was elected party leader in the internal Likud primaries, and was able to influence the election of Likud candidates for the Knesset so that they are overwhelmingly people who are personally loyal to him. As party chairman, he could easily influence the party’s central committee to expel from the party any Likud MK who recommends a candidate for Prime Minister other than Bibi, and all the more so to any Likud MK who gives a vote of confidence to a new Prime Minister without the approval of the party chairman (Bibi) or the party central committee(composed of Bibi loyalists). Every Israeli political commenter, whether left or right, agrees that Bibi has a history of vindictiveness towards former supporters who desert him. As a result, any Likudnik who goes against the Likud apparatus will face consequences.
THese consequences will include a cutoff of Likud party funds for any future election campaign, or any employment within the party (an important source of additional income for some MKs. The laws governing political factions in parliament will require them to form their own, new politicaal faction in the Knesset. After a certain amount of time has passed (30 days? I can’t remember for sure), they are permitted to join one of the established political parties–but only if that party’s central committee permits them to do so.
Even Ariel Sharon, when he could not get the Likud’s central committee to OK has Gaza withdrawal plan, was forced to resign from the Likud and form his own new party, Kadima. This party no longer even exists. Those Likudniks who joined him in leaving Likud, such as Tzippy Livni and Ehud Olmert, have fallen into political oblivion.
Even David Ben-Gurion fell into political oblivion when he decided to leave the Labor Party, of which he had been the leader for many years, to found a new breakaway party of his own. He never held a cabinet position again.
As a result of these political risks, I think the number of Likudniks who will jump ship to support Gantz will be small, although there may be a few who will put their desire to see a new government formed above their personal political future. And I don’t think the party apparatus, or the majority of Likud MKs will vote to depose Bibi as leader. At least , not before he is indicted. Therefore a lot will turn on Bibi’s own good judgment and common sense, plus the advice he gets from his wife and sons.
Whether the (at this point still hypothetical) Likud defectors will be enough to make Benny Gantz Prime minister is hard to say. However, if Gantz does become Prime Minister, the divisiveness and political distrust within the Israeli political system is likely to persist. And a Prime Minister with little previous political experience may have trouble overcoming this divisiveness and getting anything accomplished.
@ Bear Klein:
There couldn’t be that many formerly supporting the LIKUD who would desert to go left…A.rightist, if he stopped supporting the LIKUD, would support another right-wing party. Nobody else is half as capable, even thought there are some who could do a “passable job”. Netanyahu, comparatively, is a political genius. So where are they all coming from, it must be that many who never voted before are now ready to vote. Because to give such huge support to 3 failed, non-political and demonstrably not-too-bright generals and a radio host-turned mediocre politician, is taking a HUGE chance, at one of the most dangerous times in Israel’s history,. This could only be committed by people with no political experience of supporting or voting themselves..
(It could also be the effect of Gantz and Co.’s American expert advisors)…
{{And what about that political numskull and dubious character Barak…..even he has many people voting for him…??}}.
At least that’s a possible reason. Unless there’s a “crazy” bug going around.
Until now, for many years the Right wing has always prevailed, and Netanyahu always recommended as PM by the party heads, so its hard to believe that so many would now turn their backs on him.
At some point, something will come out, and they may think about the Mandelbilt political attempt to destroy Netanyahu…..although so far, after an initial outburst, nobody mentions it any more. But for ME, it was the prime cause of the present situation. Like the hamstrung elk, ringed around by wolves.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Do you think Likud members are ready to recommend Gantz if Bibi can not form a coalition? Do you think Blue/White is ready to recommend Bibi as Prime Minister if he can form a right wing coalition?
Are you aware that the whole Blue/White platform is to take Bibi down and replace him? Nothing else is in their platform of note.
So if the above two scenarios are a no go then and Bibi is not going to be Prime Minister, some of the Likud apparently are willing to jump ship and help choose another Likudnik to be PM. Is this simple hell no. Is it complicated yes for sure. Is it likely I do not know. Is this possible given Israeli politics yes!
Would I bet a lot of money on this outcome, no too much. With good odds maybe a moderate amount.
It is possible that Bibi will step down if he becomes convinced that he will be indicted (he is still hoping he won’t be) and realizes that he needs time to prepare his defense. But if you think about it, that may make creating a new government harder, not easier. He has no obvious heir to the leadership of his party. There will have to be an internal primary election or convention with in the Likud to decide this, and that will take time. And that time will take time away from the limited amount of time whomever President Rivlin nominates will be given to form a new government (no more than six weeks).
This will probably mean that Bibi will be under pressure, not only from his own ego but from his fellow Likud MKs, to stay on as party leader at least for an interim period until the next government, whatever its composition, has been formed.
Thus a lot will depend on Bibi’s good judgment and common sense, whichever bloc emerges as the strongest in the elections.
@ Bear Klein: I don’t think Bibi will step down voluntarily. His ego will not permit this, no matter how much pressure he is under. And get the impression, from what I have been reading in the press over the past several years, that most Likud politicians and candidates are strongly loyal to Bibi, and won’t depose him as their leader, and will recommend him to the President as thie preference for the next Prime Minister. Many of these candidates rose through the ranks due to Bibi’s patronage, he is the only leader they have known, and so they are loyal to him. In addition, he has a lot of charm and charisma, and is very well spoken. There is no one else in the Likud who can match him in these skills.
Shaked will not be chosen as leader of the Likd because she has run on party slates that competed for votes with the Lkud at least in the last two elections. And even now, she seems to be planning a run on another party slate. And it is not even clear which party slate she will choose. Party loyalty and consistency are very important in the political culture in Israel, at least among the politicians and party activists themselves.
Shaked is the darling of the Israeli rightwing public and the Israeli rightwing press.
The rightwing (electronic) papers, and even the leftwing ones, love to publish photographs of her (and who wouldn’t?). But the one group among whom she is not popular are her fellow politicians, and especially among Likud politicians, who consider he aturncoatr and gadfly, like Leiberman.
I believe that whether a stable and functional government can emerge from the next election will come down to whether Bibi and the collective leadership of the Blue and White parties can reach agreement on a coalition. While rationally there is a basis for such a coalition, it will depend on whether the politicians who will be doing the negotiating can put the national interest over their egos and old grudges. Let us hope (and for some of us, pray) for the best outcome.
@ Edgar G.:
Blue & White won 35 seats in the last election. They range anywhere from left of center, center to former people associated with the Likud. So they pull from a wide spectrum of voters.
Many people in Israel have been looking for a PM other than Bibi. Israelis like to test the new kid on the block especially former big shot generals (Blue/White). Gantz seems to have some popularity as does Ashkenazi. Lapid has core group of center left to center devoted followers. So this hodgepodge of those hating Bibi which is a large group they thought this is the most viable option.
This is my analysis. Not that I trust this group. Gantz nor Ashkenazi have any political experience.
TED–If Lieberman gets a victory over the Haredi Draft situation, it will show his power to get his demands. Then there will be NO holding him. We have seen that he not only keeps his strength but is increasing his potential sets. He may get 99%.Russian votes plus OTHERS….. The LIKUD is in a cleft stick, -a “Morton’s Fork”. In the next election he could become “the power behind the throne”… G-D forbid, since he shows no qualms about bringing down a govt.
That he said he doesn’t care if he’s in govt or not shows his gambling brinkmanship. Every politician with any ambition wants to be part of govt.
The above is merely a possibility that nobody has considered …yet. And I have not seen any explanations to my query as to how the inept, tyro Blue and White, depending on American “advisors”… is getting so many potential seats.
@ Ted Belman:
Ted, Liberman is insisting on a unity government that is part of the issue. He wants to exclude UTJ/Shas plus Bibi from the government. Do you think it is a ploy? That is what happen last time when he said he would not change one comma on the draft law he formulated with the IDF.
Yes, it is a problem. Again I am not for Blue/White. They foremost want Bibi OUT. So if an another Likud MK could get to be PM they might just form a government.
Hopefully the vote count comes so that a right wing government can get formed without Liberman even if narrow. Hypothetical here Likud 35 Seats, United Right under Shaked 11 Seats, UTJ/Shas 15 Seats. Total 61 Seats Then Liberman has no leverage and the Haredi will run the state just as Liberman says.
So really it comes down to turnout who is showing up Likud voters or whom else?
Short of a narrow hypothetical win for the right like I have suggested above then I think a unity government with Blue/White + Likud will be the order of the day in most likelihood. If no government can get formed again maybe it would be time for a Constitutional Convention with a national referendum to approve or deny it.
@ Bear Klein:
It seems to me that it would be easier to induce Liberman to join the a right wing coalition than to cut a deal with Bue and White. As long as Liberman is not calling for a unity government with Blue and Whate he will be reasonable. Even if he ups the ante, he is still the best bet for Likud. Bibi has not shown himself to be indespensible.
@ Bear Klein:Follow Up on my last comment. This hypothetical unity coalition would occur only when it is obvious that no coalition could be formed with Bibi as the head of it. The Likud MKs would have the correct explanation we could not go to elections a third time and need a government to function so we agreed to a unity government. This also would be the cover for people like Shaked in agreeing to join a unity government.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:The Likud elected MKs would NOT have to break away to form a coalition.
The hypothetical could work like this. Various Likud members agree with Blue/White and the New Right to choose Gideon Saar to be the next Prime Minister. This could also include Labor or Liberman voting for Saar. If he gets 61 plus recommendations, The President then gives Saar the time to form a coalition.
So in essence Bibi would be pushed to the side and the Likud is still the Likud but Bibi likely would resign and the next person on the list would take his place. It is possible a few Bibi loyalists might also not join the coalition.
The elected MKs are free to recommend any other MK to be the Prime Minister by law it does NOT have to be the head of the party.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:I am not a fan of Blue/White and would NOT vote for them. Please site a reference about Gantz’s alleged statement that he would dismantle settlements. I recall him saying just the opposite.
I like Shaked and trust her judgment, whatever party she heads would be my favorite party at this point in time. Likud headed by someone other than Bibi would be a possibility.
Polls as we all know are just a snapshot of where the electorate maybe at particular point in time We also know that Israeli polls are notoriously bad. The parties are not even finished finalizing yet in Israel prior to the Sept. elections which are still a long way off. So just for academic points let us take one of the latest polls and see how it could radically change. In several of the last elections some parties have been way under polled but received many more seats at election time. The Likud for one.
First to cross the thresh-hold in Israeli elections a party must get 3.5% of the total vote or the party gets ZERO seats. The margin of error in these polls is stated usually around 4% ( I say it should be higher because many Israelis lie to the pollsters just like in the US) So parties polling now at around 4 or 5 seats are in real danger of not passing the thresh-hold so in essence their votes would wasted, just like when the New Right did NOT pass the thresh-hold in the last elections.
So if we analyze some of the results on the polling the right could get way stronger if either Barak’s party or Meretz do not pass the thresh-hold as they are barely passing and are within the margin of error.
Category: Polls
Channel 12 Poll:
Likud 30,
Blue & White 29,
Arab Joint List 11: Votes only take away from potential coalitions because they would NOT join a coalition NOR would any party other than maybe Meretz ever join them in a coalition because any party who did this would be a total pariah to all but the farthest left Israeli Jewish voters because these Arab parties are ANTI- the Jewish State and work to undercut it.
Yisrael Beitenu 9,
08 [08] United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni)
07 [08] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] Labor (Peretz & Levy)
04 [04] Meretz (Horowitz) (danger of not passing)
04 [–] & Israel Democratic Party (Barak) (danger of not passing)
We do not yet know on the small right wing parties because they have not finalized how or if they will be merge as one, two or more parties. These parties are the New Right (Shaked & Bennet), Jewish Home (Peretz)/National Union (Smotrich), Otzma, Zehut (Feiglin). Estimated total votes depending on mergers could range from 5 to 13 seats
@ Bear Klein: I agree that Bibi is not doing a good job dealing with Arab aggression or settlement building. But I think the Blue and White people might turn out to be even worse than Bibi concerning these issues. I think that at least three of Blue and White’s four generals are, or until recently were, members of the National Institute for Security Studies, a think-tank connected with Tel Aviv University. The NISS recently developed a plan for the destruction of the Israeli settlements outside the major settlement blocs. These settlements house 90,000 Israelis.
While none of the Blue and White generals have publicly endorsed the NISS plan, Gantz did recently suggest that he “would consider” dismantling these settlements if it would advance the peace process. A troubling sign in my view.
The election is shaping up as as apossible disaster for Israel, since neither bloc.if present polls hold good, is likely to get a majority. This would leave the Arab nationalist-Islamist MKs with the balance of power.
Bear says he has heard that there is a “contingency plan” by some Likud MKs to form a coalition government with Blue and White without Bibi. The problem with such a “contingency plan” is that Bibi and most of th Likud MKs and other Likudniks would denounce these people as “traitors” and expel them from the party. They would be denied access to Likud party funds, which politicians never like. As a result there would probably be only a handful of “contingency planners” who would act on such a plan.
They could join Blue and White eventually. But I gather there is some sort of parliamentary rule that makes this difficult to accomplish right away. The rules, I understand, would require the defecting “contingency planners” to first form their own independent faction in the Knesset. And they could become Blue and White MKs only with the consent of the Blue and White parties.
My gut feeling is that a government formed in this way would be unstable and not last long because of internal disagreements.
The most likely outcome of the elections would seem to be a Blue and White government that would include, for the first time, some sort of representation for the Arab political parties.
There is also the risk that no one will be able to form a government in the required six weeks, leading to yet another election.
My suspicion is that a government formed through Likud defections from Bibi w
@ Ted Belman:I was analyzing plus passing on information I was aware in regards to what is going behind the scenes. I am not excited about Blue/White in the government for issues of Judea/Samaria. Though frankly I would not be sad if UTJ/Shas were sitting out of the government for perhaps the next generation or two.
Bibi has been trying to block Shaked from heading all the Right Wing Parties to the right of the Likud because it is possible she would recommend someone other than him in the Likud. Since he had her drummed out of the Likud and kept her from rejoining.
Yes, you are correct Ted, Bibi is not doing a good job making sure that Arab illegal building is stopped and Area C is annexed. So it is time to find some who will. Also time to find someone who will give the IDF the go ahead to destroy Hamas in Gaza. Though I understand the reluctance at this point in time, as war in the north could break out with Hezbollah, Iran and Syria at any time.
@ Bear Klein:
I do not want to see that happen. Bibi is adverse to annexing Area C as is Blue and White. My key issue is Judea and Samaria. Likud has been a big dissapointment in this regard.
Now they will negotiate the next few days and negotiate seat placement order of the various parties. It does not appear Zehut (Feiglin) will join the three or four other little parties into Uniting most likely under Shaked. She is clearly the most popular and would bring the most seats. Which some of these Rabbis who call her Secular and do not like women at the top will have to swallow a bit of salt water. She is actually more traditional
Shaked is emerging out from under the shadow of Bennett and has started to assert herself and Bennett wisely went along as her number two. Wise move by both. If somehow post Bibi she could link with the Likud she could become the next Israeli female Prime Minister. .
Ted, I know that you want to the UTJ/Shas to agree to Liberman’s demands that still may not happen. Even if it does as Liberman is out of control and he and Bibi get along less than ever, so the government might last five minutes. Also Liberman is no insisting on a Unity government which he might or might not get in.
Very actively being pursed is a unity government of Likud (w/o Bibi), Blue/White, New Right and maybe one more party (could be Labor or Liberman or both).