By Matthew Boyle, BREITBART
A new poll released this weekend shows President Donald Trump, the incumbent GOP president, has taken a national and battleground states lead over his Democrat challenger presumptive nominee former Vice President Joe Biden.
The survey, from the Democracy Institute commissioned by the Sunday Express newspaper, shows Trump leading Biden 48 percent to 46 percent. What’s more, Trump has opened up a bigger lead according to this poll in the crucial battleground states, meaning the president by this pollster’s estimates currently is projected to win 309 electoral votes—more than he did in 2016.
Overall, this poll has Trump nationally at 48 percent to Biden’s 46 percent with six percent undecided. Among white voters, Trump leads 53 percent to 46 percent. Trump is surprisingly strong with black voters at 20 percent in this poll—he got about eight percent of the black vote in 2016—while this survey has Biden at 77 percent. Hispanic voters in this poll break for Biden 51 percent to 38 percent, which would also represent an increase for the president over his 2016 performance with Hispanics.
“Crucially, President Trump has a lead of 48 percent to 43 percent in the swing states Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which would put him back in the White House with an electoral college tally of 309 to Biden’s 229,” David Maddox, the political editor for the Sunday Express, wrote about his newspaper’s survey.
The poll has Trump leading in Florida 47 to 45 percent, leading in Minnesota 46 percent to 45 percent, and in New Hampshire 46 percent to 43 percent. “The polling suggests Mr Trump is emerging as the race leader because of a belief he is best in handling the economy,” Maddox wrote. “With a third of voters putting the economy as the top election issue and 66 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back after coronavirus, voters believe that Trump is better for the economy by 57 percent to 43 percent.”
When it comes to the electoral college, this pollster argues that Trump will pick up Minnesota and New Hampshire but that Biden would pick up Wisconsin.
Democracy Institute Director Patrick Basham is quoted as saying the survey data seems to demonstrate that Biden’s campaign may have “reached its high water mark.”
“Although Biden remains in a competitive race with Donald Trump, and may well do so until election day, his support isn’t growing,” Basham said. “And, tellingly, almost all of the issues that matter most to voters are trending in President Trump’s favour. More Americans are concerned about the economy and keeping their current, or getting a new, job. They don’t especially blame Trump for the lockdown-induced economic contraction, and they think he’ll do a better job of righting the economic ship than Biden.”
As Breitbart News has reported previously about these Democracy Institute surveys, Basham is trying to get ahead of the curve of trends of other pollsters—most of whom show Biden winning right now even though they are finding a tightening race—by identifying what he calls a “shy” Trump voter. That so-called “silent majority” is what the president is banking on being there to win the election, just like it was there for him in 2016.
In fact, Basham’s latest Democracy Institute poll found that the percent of “shy” Trump voters has increased from 66 percent in his last poll last month to 71 percent now—part of why Trump has taken the lead. However, this poll also tracks with other surveys in showing a big enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden when it comes to their supporters. This poll shows 79 percent of Trump supporters are enthusiastic about voting for him whereas just 41 percent of Biden supporters are enthusiastic about voting for him. Only four percent of Trump supporters say they could change their vote but 10 percent of Biden voters say they could switch.
Also, concerns over Biden’s cognitive decline are on the rise causing more people to say they might not vote for him because they are concerned about his faculties and capability to lead should he win the election.
“Concerns that Mr Biden may be suffering from the early stages of dementia are also increasingly boosting Donald Trump’s chances of victory in the Presidential election, a new poll has revealed,” Maddox wrote. “According to this month’s poll 58 percent believe Mr Biden is suffering from cognitive decline compared to 55 percent last month. More worryingly for the former Vice President and Senator, is that 48 percent are less likely to vote for him as a result compared to 40 percent a month ago.”
While the pandemic continues to dog Trump, part of the reason for his recent surge is that as concerns over coronavirus recede the focus has shifted among the public from a fear of the virus to who can best lead the country’s economic resurgence.
“The polling suggests Mr Trump is emerging as the race leader because of a belief he is best in handling the economy,” Maddox wrote. “With a third of voters putting the economy as the top election issue and 66 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back after coronavirus, voters believe that Trump is better for the economy by 57 percent to 43 percent.”
But overall voters disapprove of how Trump has handled the pandemic, something that could if it strikes again in the fall hurt him. That being said, an overwhelming majority support Trump—and oppose Biden—when it comes to reopening schools in the fall.
“The one issue that continues to bug President Trump is his handling of the coronavirus crisis,” Maddox wrote. “According to the poll one in five Americans see it as the top election issue putting it level with education and behind the economy. However, 49 percent disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the crisis while only 41 percent approve. Nevertheless 64 percent support Mr Trump’s calls for schools to reopen soon in the wake of the crisis.”
Thanks for including this article Mr. Belman.
The Corporation for Public Broadcasting[CPB] is worthy of rebuke for willfully obtuse coverage of anything to do with POTUS including zero adherence to “The Public Broadcasting Act of 1967…” which states: …”The Public Broadcasting Act of 1967 require the CPB operate within a ‘strict adherence to objectivity and balance in all programs or series of programs of a controversial nature.
It also requires it to regularly review national programs for objectivity and balance and to report on ‘it’s efforts to address concerns about objectivity and balance.'”
Examples of offending programs include:
Amanpour and Company
PBS Newshour w Woodruff(managing editor)
Washington Week in Review w Costa
The Open Mind w Heffner
BBC News
(Complaints can be registered with The FCC)
@ Reader:
Have you ever actually talked to a Democrat and asked them why they support a candidate? They’re not rational. Biden actually represents them pretty well. I remember some fool angrily trying to get me say Biden was the greatest thing since sliced bread at a dinner party some years ago and being furious that I didn’t want to talk about it. I don’t remember what he said, but I do remember thinking it made no sense. If you ask them why they hate Trump, they rave on about things they think he said. If you ask me or just about any Trump supporter we can give you a list of things he has done and trying to do that we support, most of which they don’t support usually for the strangest of reasons, as a general rule like opposing extending Title VI civil rights protections to Jewish students because they think it opens us up to racism by labeling us a race and discriminates against Palestinian antisemites. They are lunatics.
@ Reader:
I don’t agree.They want to win as much as they want to give Trump a dose of poison. They’ll pick the best vote-catcher of course, but, when the candidates declare themselves, it’s the public support, or lack there-of, meaning money, and voting, which dictate the stayers and the droppers-out. Reality prevails in those circumstances. Biden has been successful in both, or his expert handlers have. But I think he’s just passing his peak.
And, unless they have another unsuspected, better candidate in the wings , ready to be brought out at the Convention and elected from the floor (I’ve been reading Mrs. Obama-perhaps Obama himself), Trump has to win.
I predict that Trump will win even if no one comes to the polls.
If the Democrats really WANTED to win, would they pick a bunch of losers for presidential candidates crowned by a man with senile dementia?
Just like the last time, when they picked someone who appeared too ill to function.
The powers-that-be must have to take tranquilizers not to die laughing – they are playing their subjects like a violin.
Professor Helmut Norpoth (LI) predicts a Trump win!
His methodology based on “primaries voters results” have given him a 92% probability whenever he tested his hypothesis! 24 out of 26 successes.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
I feel that the polls will begin to irrevocably turn in Trump’s direction…except of course those which are commissioned by the Dems. Common-sense eventually prevails. I listened to a litany of “Bidenisms” yesterday, better those of Sam Goldwyn, but not funny, infinitely pathetic. (I am always testing myself for the dreaded decline).
The important question is the Dems VP choice. And that’s what their strategy is. To use Biden’s vote-getting to win him the job, then quietly have the VP to do most of the real governing. I can’t see any candidate nearly as good as Pence.
I’m surprised that some unruly Repubs haven’t produced a short Video entitled “Bunker Joe Come Out, Come Out, Wherever You Are”….
Is this poll an outlier?
Trouble with many polls is they do NOT likely voters but registered voters.
Also many people will not honestly saying they are voting for Trump in particular if the pollster takes the name of the person being polled.
What is going against Trump now is that some voters may have left him because of the Corona Virus performance and the poor economy now.
All the above said polling now may change when people start voting.
@ Marsha .roseman:
How many polls predicted Trump would win in 2016? Aside from political skewing, many people are afraid to tell anybody what they really think, understandably. But, if history is any guide, we will see a backlash against the left in November as we saw in 1968, 1972, and even 1980. Anybody watching tv at that time would have believed that the left was popular and invincible, but then, as well as now, the tens of thousands in the streets don’t represent the tens of millions quietly watching.
This survey seems so at odds with the many others. Of course I hope it is true but I fear we Americans are stampeding over a Socialist Senile Cliff.