By David Israel, JEWISH PRESS 15.7.22
Communications Minister Yoaz Hendel (L) and his faction partner MK Zvi Hauser, June 6, 2022.
According to a Panels Politics Institute poll published by Maariv on Friday, shows Yamina led by Ayelet Shaked well below the 3.25% vote threshold. Yamina crashes in this poll, to a low of 2.2%, compared to 2.6% in the previous poll by the same outfit. Meretz, after the retirement of Nitzan Horowitz from his post as chairman, receives 2.5% – compared to 2.1% in the previous poll.
However, when asked if their decision would be different should Derech Eretz party leaders Yoaz Handel and Zvi Hauser (who are currently perched at Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party), respondents awarded Yamina four seats and completely changed the contention between the right and left blocs.
Initially, there were the results of Friday’s poll:
Likud – 36
Yesh Atid – 24
Blue & White – 13
Religious Zionism – 10
Shas – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Joint Arab List – 6
Labor – 6
Israel Beiteinu – 6
Ra’am – 4
Yamina – 0
Meretz – 0
The math shows that Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu should be able to form a right-wing government with 61 seats: Likud 36 + Religious Zionism – 10 + Shas – 8 + United Torah Judaism – 7 = 61.
Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid in that case has no path to victory, even with the Joint Arab List, which will never happen (we hope).
However, Yamina with Handel and Hauser takes one seat from Blue & White, which drops to 12, one from Yesh Atid that gets only 23, and one from Religious Zionism, which ends up with 9.
Netanyahu then has only 60 guaranteed seats and would be forced to trade horses with Yamina for its four seats. It could mean that Yamina with its four seats could demand – and receive – three ministerial positions, most notably Justice for Shaked, her dream job.
To remind you, the elections are scheduled for November 1, more than three whole months away. Likud will have its primaries in August, as will Meretz, and Israeli voters will most likely shift back and forth many times.
The poll included 711 respondents, who constitute a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, 614 Jews and 97 Arabs. Data collection was done through the Panel4All web panel (a request to participate in the poll was sent to 4,621 registered members of the panel). The poll was conducted on July 6-7, 2022. The maximum sampling error is 4.2% – or, in other words, all of Yamina’s and Meretz’s votes.
@Edgar
I quite agree. It does appear that there seems to be an immutable support for these ultimate bastions of Leftism no matter how falsely they title themselves or how ineptly they perform their duties in the offices they hold. Indeed, the degree to which the numbers change are annoyingly slight regardless of how significant the blunders of this current group are performed in rapid succession. Of course, I have to confess a great disdain for political polling in general, which I have mentioned before, and it is the lack of even a slightly equitable momentary price being paid following the exercise of serious misteps such as those recently taken, which have lead me to seriously question their accuracy, or dare I say their fidelity of an attempt at being accurate.
I do find the matter with Yamina to be a challenging one, having betrayed their supporters presumably even before the election in the last go around, they are currently faced with the prospect of unifying with Handel and Hauser who refuse to support Bibi in the coming election. Hence, anyone voting for Shaked, who supposedly would support a Bibi govt, would be partially splitting their vote with the same type of divisives that led to the last election crisis, and which led Yamina to break faith with their prior commitments. Honestly, people should shy away from the Yamina gambit if it requires supporting Saar-like candidates to provide Shaked the traction needed to retain her seat in the Knessett. I personally find it curious that even with the presence of the dynamic duo, Handel and Hauser, she is able to drag the over baggaged party Yamina over the finish line. In any event, such Faustian bargains rarely end well for anyone.
I’m more concerned with the increasing vote catching of Yesh Atid and Blue and White, pseudo Centralists, but obviously Leftists.
Polls show Israeli people want a rightist Govt, but it never seems to advance from 55%. Even if they DO want a Rightist Govt, why are the Lefties showing increasing strength almost every poll and never decreasing.
Even though, in a short week Lapid displays his ineptitude openly..
Expecting tio depend on a dual Party which may except toget the bare minimum, 4 seats,, is a risky business, and I’n sure Netanyahu will look farther afield whilst not neglecting Yamina.