A survey that was conducted on Monday and Tuesday by the Maagar Mochot Institute and published Wednesday morning by Israel Hayom found that should Benjamin Netanyahu continue to lead the Likud party in the next national election, Likud will win 34 seats (compared with 30 in the current Knesset), and Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, would rise from its current 6 seats to 8. Those two seats will be taken directly from Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party, which according to the survey would drop from 7 to 5 seats.
However, should Netanyahu be forced to leave politics and someone else takes over the Likud leadership, the country’s largest party loses votes, and the big winner is… you guessed, Bezalel Smotrich.
If Netanyahu is replaced by the most popular contender, former Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat, Likud will drop from its current 30 to 29 sears but will remain the country’s largest party. Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid would climb from its current 17 seats to 20; and the third-largest party in Israel would be Religious Zionism, with 11 seats. Yamina remains at 5 seats.
Next: should former Knesset Speaker and former Health Minister Yuli Edelstein take over at Likud, the party would drop to second place with 16 seats, behind Yesh Atid with 21. But look at Israel’s third-largest party: Religious Zionism, with 13 sears. Yamina at 5.
Things look even worse for Likud should former Transportation and Finance Minister Israel Katz becomes party leader. Likud then drops to 15, behind Yair Lapid with 21. And Smotrich? He is at 14 seats. Yamina? Still with 5.
What about Likud’s chances to establish the next government after the elections?
With Netanyahu at the helm, the right-wing bloc will look as follows:
Likud – 34
Shas – 9
Religious Zionism – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Yamina – 5
It would give Netanyahu a solid, 63-seat coalition government with a frog he must swallow called Naftali Bennett. There has been a lot of bad blood between Yamina and the rest of the right-wing parties other than Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope, which is expected to disappear. Would Netanyahu prefer to include Blue&White Chairman Benny Gantz with his 9 projected seats (compared to his current 8), rather than extend Bennett’s political life? Mind you, Gantz is heavily invested in pushing through an IDF Draft bill that would include enlistment quotas, not a big favorite with the Haredi partners in Netanyahu’s coalition government.
In short, without Yamina, a winning Netanyahu still has only 58 seats. It means that Netanyahu, Bennett, and Smotrich would have to make peace in order to give Israel the strong, right-wing government it deserves.
It would also probably be a good idea for Smotrich and Bennett to sign a vote surplus agreement so that their votes won’t be lost to the religious Zionist camp, and as a sign that their partnership could be revisited, presumably making the religious right the third-largest faction in Israel.
With Barkat at the helm, things look amazing for the right-wing bloc:
Likud – 29
Religious Zionism – 11
Shas – 11
United Torah Judaism – 8
Yamina – 5
Barkat gets to lead a 64-seat, right-wing coalition government, bigger than Netanyahu’s. It would also be the most homogenous party in Israel’s history. And without Netanyahu, there would be little or no problem in accepting Yamina back into the fold. Maybe with a little hazing. Ayelet Shaked would get back her job at the Justice Ministry, and Netanyahu would have to settle for something like the Health Ministry, which has been under his watchful eye this whole time anyway.
Incidentally, those other Likud candidates, Edelstein and Katz, would both fall short of a coalition, leaving the field to the big projected winner, Yair Lapid.
The survey included 504 respondents, constituting a representative sample of the adult population in Israel, with a maximum sampling error of 4.4%.
@ SEBASTIEN-
Idly scrolling down, I caught your reference to the Bar Ilan speech. I have always discounted it as pure political PR from a brand new PM who was spraying “peace” (in our time) all around like water from a garden hose.
I felt he was boosting Mubarak, placating Obama whom I’m sure he already knew as an inveterate enemy of the Jews, and so forth.
Just my opinion.
@ SEBASTIEN-
Your compliment makes me feel ..well you know what “kvelling mit nachas” means. . And your comment about Rav Kahane shows that my memory is accurate.. After all I’ve spent my whole life reading. But I’m so sorry I can’t recall the name of the book or author. I was very young then. I’ve likely read 20-25,000 books since. But I likely have it stored.
An obsession. I suppose like being a drug addict. To me the printed word of a book is almost like Torah. I never swap, lend or throw away any book I’ve bought. I just can’t explain it. I even have a cracked spine Frazer’s “Golden Bough”, . bought when about 7-8, for 3 pence. I had to hold it in both hands.
@Edgar Kahane also recounts many stories like that in “They Must Go” before going on to advocate a detailed plan for mostly compensated Arab emigration. Do you recall the title and author of the book, off hand? Your bibliographical contributions are one of the things I look forward to reading the most in Israpundit, by the way.
@ SEBASTIEN-
I have a book describing, amonghts other parts of Jewish life in Israel before 1939, In which a young man describes how happily he and his family grew up with their Arab friends and neighbours, really life-long friends.. They worked together on the land, As kids they were running in and out of each others homes, eating together, sleeping =together, like normal kids today.
One day he came to the vineyard and found his 17 year old sister mutilated, dis-emboweled , otherwise mutilated. Her Arab life-long friend was absent, and never was found.
This was a not uncommon occurrence.
And a few years ago was there not a Jewish foreman working on top of a building with his Arab freinds and mates, who when lowered over the side to inspect, had the ropes cut and he feel to death.,.No one was caught, but it could only have been one or more of his 3 Arab co-workers.
@ Sebastien, Okay we do not agree no problem, everyone is entitled to their view.
Smotrich at best will be the head of a medium sized party (he is NOT in the Likud). Right now he is the head of a tiny party in Israel. Most Israelis view him as dangerous. I like some of his ideas but for the most part I view him as a loudmouth who causes division, stirs up trouble needlessly and should be kept away from any serious position of power.
Levin may appeal to a few but he has zero chance to head the Likud.
@Bear Klein 200,000 jobs for 180,000 Arabs in Area C? Seriously? And for Jewish economic development? Biblical tourism. This isn’t a plan, it’s a comedy routine. A tragi-comedy.
@Bear Klein Either Smotrich or Levin seem better. Though one is religious and the other secular, I could care less about that. They seem much less inclined to make concessions to the Arabs.
@Sebastien
Barkat is 1000% for a United Jerusalem (boy have you got your facts WRONG). Sorry my guess is you have never heard the man talk. Chill he is a really terrific Israeli leader. Maybe harder to find anyone better.
The Jordan Option is something that is talked about on Israpundit regularly. This is rarely mentioned by others and is a long shot at best. Yes he layed out a plan for an economic peace that would see Arabs employed. Unless someone implements in the real world and not on paper a plan where Arabs are vacating to elsewhere this is as good as it is going to get.
@Bear Klein In 2019, Barkat wanted to create hundreds of thousands of jobs for Arabs in area C. Isn’t the whole point of the Jordan Option to incentivize as many Arabs as possible to emigrate? And there was something about him being willing to relinquish Arab occupied parts of Jerusalem when he was mayor. How is that different?
@ Zorn, please do NOT confuse Israeli Jerusalem City politics with National Politics.
You are doing that when copy something about a City election in which Labor backs him. City politics have much different bedfellows have nothing to do with the Israeli Palestinian conflict at times. You are conflating the two.
Kahne is not running for office in the Likud. Barkat will. There are no Kahne’s in the Likud and unless there is an all out war in Judea/Samaria Israel will not be evicting the Arabs. So I understand your objection is to Barkat and anyone who is not expelling the Arabs?
https://www.algemeiner.com/2017/02/28/go-figure-a-guy-i-drank-coffee-with-was-suddenly-the-enemy-recounts-israeli-who-miraculously-survived-ax-bludgeoning-at-hands-of-palestinian-co-worker/
Had to use DuckDuckGo to find this again. It’s censored out of Google. So sick of reading comments from Israelis who say that they just get along great with their Arab neighbors and trust them. I think this is representative. They must Go.
to be fair, Barkat’s plan is basically in line with Trump and Netanyahu’s pipe dream as laid out in this article. I disagree with Netanyahu’s Bar Ilan speech which this is in line with. It also would actively sabotage the Jordan option, incentivizing Arabs to stay and in fact, for more to come. https://www.timesofisrael.com/barkat-us-may-adopt-west-bank-plan-for-250000-palestinian-jobs-bible-tourism/
I support Netanyahu and Trump because of their competence and the historic injustice and the precedent the fraud and witchhunt against them sets but as Ben Gurion said, sovereignty over the land of Israel in its entirely should never ever be abandoned in principle. This is why it was right for the Trump/Netanyahu/Barkat plan to fail and good fortune that the Abraham Accords could be implemented in exchange for tabling it.
@Ted Belman My reply to Bear Klein is in moderation. Excerpts of Articles from 2019 in which Barkat says he wants demilitarized – presumably judenrein, like now –
semi-autonomy for the Arabs in areas A&B and new industrial parks to employ 200,000 instead of 30,000 Arabs in Area C. He wants to keep Arabs as well as Jews in their homes, he says. He thinks the only problem is the PA. The Arabs who elected Abbas and would elect Hamas in a heartbeat if they had “democracy” are JUST FINE! And all those terrorists who keep popping up every day are SO UNREPRESENTATIVE!
@Bear Klein Well, I just googled: Barkat Two State Solution and this is what popped up from 2018. Got anything more recent than contradicts this?
OK. I googled: Barkat Area C and got ” …After holding a few tours of Judea and Samaria, and learning about the joint Israeli-Palestinian industrial areas there, the two concluded that 12 industrial areas should be established that will employ over 200,000 Palestinians. Today, some 30,000 Palestinians are employed in Area C, around half of them in industrial areas and the remainder in settlements…”
https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/06/24/former-jerusalem-mayor-proposes-plan-to-complement-us-deal-of-the-century/
Barkat is for the application of Israeli law to the Jordan Valley, Jewish Towns in Judea/ Samaria and open to such application of Area C of Judea/Samaria. He unlike Benny Gantz is NOT a fan of the PA. He has ideas of how to work with the Arabs of Area A & B in industrial zones in Judea/Samaria.
He is not for giving Arabs of Judea/Samaria citizenship but continuing control of all of it militarily. He is very similar to Bibi on Judea/Samaria but has new fresh ideas.
@Sebastian Zorn, not to be nasty but you clearly KNOW NOTHING ABOUT BARKAT. For starters he is NOT a two stater in the least. Then one would have had heard him speak in person to probably know that (perhaps in Hebrew).
The man is a true blue right-wing Zionist, who is extremely capable and articulate if one adequately reads his background. He is very articulate in Hebrew and English. He is very experienced and a successful business person. He was a great mayor of Jerusalem. This is a man who has excellent economic ideas and is dead set against partition of Jerusalem or giving up Israeli lands.
@Ted Belman I think Barkat would be terrible. In a comment I just posted, I explain why and substantiate it. He’s clearly a two-stater, who would be more at home on the left where he began than on the right. Unfortunately, it’s in moderation.
@Bear Klein I looked up Barkat on Wikipedia and he sounds to me like the Israeli equivalent of a RINO. These are the passages that jumped out at me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nir_Barkat
I don’t understand that last passage which contradicts the earlier statement that he supported relinquishing portions of Jerusalem.
I looked up Kadima.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kadima
Yikes!
Says he supported Netanyahu in 2013 and 2015 and only joined Likud in 2015!
Contrast this with Yariv Levin. In addition to his impressive political resume:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yariv_Levin
Though I hope Netanyahu is vindicated and becomes PM again. As in the case of
Trump, Competence is nothing to be sneezed at. I hate to quote Lenin, but in this case, what he said in rebuttal to Rosa Luxemburg in an unrelated context applies:
And this is a crisis.
Bibi will probably be either barred from serving in any government position by a “moral turpitude” finding by the trial court, or will actually be in jail if the plea bargain doesn’t go through–which I think is very likely. David Israel is thus making a mistake by discussing him as a participant in a future government. That won’t happen. As for Yamina, they are quite comfortable with their present leftist partners, and no longer be viewed as part of a right wing bloc. The same is true of New Hope. These ex-rightists know they wouldn’t do well in a future election, so they will do everything in their power to preserve the present government. So of course will Ra’am, which making huge amounts of patronage from the present deal, and enabling their Bedouin voters to take over the Negev. All this makes a new election extremely unlikely until it becomes a legal requirement, which is several years from now.
Yes, the Smotrich party may do very well when a new election finally happens. I think that will be in 2025. However, by that time Israel’s economic situation, and possibly its military situation as well, will be desperate.
David Israel does not even mention the possibility that Yariv Levin might be chosen as the next Likud leader. He would certainly be the wisest choice for the job.
Why so much “WOW”.. With Netanyahu leading the same line-up theRight Wing as projected, would have just one seat less. at 63.
One Netanyhu is worth a dozen Barkats on the International stage.
Netanyahu as Health Minister……??? Double WOW. …!!
This writer .seems to have another bone to pick..
This would be best for Israel a strong stable right-wing government. Only issue would be the Haredi would continue their monopoly on religion.
Which ministry, or two or three would Smortrich demand?