Likud gains 2 seats after merger with Kulanu, Blue & White sinks. Labor wiped off of political map. Broad right-wing alliance nets 7 seats.
Binyamin Netanyahu in Knesset with Moshe Kahlon, Yisrael Katz, and Gilad Erdan
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would win if new elections were held today, a new poll shows, with the right-wing bloc gaining seats in comparison to last month’s election.
According to the poll, which was conducted by Panels Politics and published Friday morning by Maariv, the Likud would win 37 seats, a gain of two mandates, while the center-left Blue and White party would fall by two seats, from 35 to 33 mandates.
The poll was conducted after the Likud voted to merge with the smaller Kulanu faction, giving the party the fifth, 15th, 29th, and 35th slots on its Knesset slate.
Naftali Bennett’s New Right party would win five seats if Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked runs with the party and does not leave it for the Likud. The party narrowly failed to enter the 21st Knesset, missing the threshold by some 1,400 votes.
The United Right – a joint list of the Jewish Home, National Union, and Otzma Yehudit factions – would win six seats, a gain of one mandate.
Former Defense Minister Avidgor Liberman’s secular right-wing Yisrael Beytenu party received nine seats in the poll, a four-mandate increase over its present five seats.
The haredi factions dropped a total of one seat, from 16 to 15 mandates, with United Torah Judaism remaining steady at eight seats, and Shas falling from eight to seven.
The libertarian-leaning Zehut party, which received 2.7% in last month’s election, again fails to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold, receiving just 1.4% of the vote.
On the left, the Meretz party would gain two mandates, rising to six seats, while the Labor party would for the first time in Israeli history be left out of the Knesset, receiving just 1.9% of the vote.
The two Arab lists would receive a total of nine mandates, down from ten, with Hadash-Ta’al dropping from six to five seats, and the United Arab List-Balad alliance holding steady at four seats.
The right-wing – religious bloc as a whole would win 72 seats, an increase of seven seats from the current 65, while the left-wing – Arab bloc would fall from 55 mandates to 48.
In this scenario, Netanyahu would be able to form a government without Yisrael Beytenu, with 63 seats going to right-wing and haredi parties if Yisrael Beytenu is not included.
The Panels Politics poll also asked respondents how they would vote if Ayelet Shaked left the New Right for the Likud, and New Right chief Naftali Bennett ran on the United Right ticket.
Here the poll found the Likud surging to 41 seats – the most the party has won since 1984.
If Shaked runs with the Likud, the Blue and White party would fall one seat, to 34 mandates, rather than lose two.
Labor would still fail to clear the electoral threshold, with Meretz still winning six seats, and the Arab factions a total of nine.
UTJ would win eight seats, and Shas seven, while Yisrael Beytenu would decline slightly in comparison to the other scenario, winning eight mandates as opposed to nine.
The United Right – New Right alliance would win seven seats, while Zehut would still fail to cross the threshold.
The right-wing – religious bloc would win 71 seats in this scenario, compared to 49 for the left-wing – Arab bloc.
Polls are not going to be accurate because parties are attempting and contemplating new mergers. Labor is looking to merge with Blue & White or Meretz.
Bennett is looking to get Feiglin, Jewish Home, National Union and Otzma to be one united party along with his New Right. Will those egos all fit under one tent even on a temporary basis as a technical election block???
Will Shaked stay with Bennett and join this block or join the Likud? Shaked would help the Likud, potentially have a better political future and hurt Bennett. Those in the Likud trying to get Shaked, want her as much, as they want to destroy Bennett. Shaked is probably more popular than Bennett, certainly at this point in time.
Liberman should be characterized as an independent (NOT LEFTist) because he does NOT fit as a politician who will agree to anything the Haredi/Netenyahu Block want. So counting him as part of their block does not work. Just like when they count the Arab parties as part of the left it does NOT work because they will NOT join or be asked to join a leftist coalition.
Right now NO ONE knows what the voters will do, what parties are running together or how many voters will be so disenchanted they will just stay home. Bibi will have hearings in October, prior to his likely indictment. If he gets asked to form a government again it will again be under a cloud of personal problems that he is asking a potential coalition to solve for him with personal legislation of immunity. Sort of real third world dictator type of legislation. Will voters reject him because of this or sit home because no other parties appeal to them?
I personally think the country would be better off with a new number one at the Likud who would be their PM candidate if they win the election. It is not healthy that one man be in charge so long of a country. Personal legislation makes this very clear.
It is not in the slightest degree that Jews of Israel do not need a revolutionary socialist answer tot he total crisis of humanity, of which they are a part. They absolutely do. How would Jews, to give just one possible scenario, in fact under capitalism a certain scenario, of Israel a state and Jews lioving in that state inside of the horror of a fast heating up Global Warming…see the new book The Uninhabitable Earth.
In exactly this regard I rejoice in the decline of the “Labour” party in Israel. The time has passed for labour reformism. The future of Jewish working class people lies with the state of the Jews. The Jewish workers must recognize that Israel is their Homeland and also defence against Jew Hatred. Also understand that Palestinianism is world Jew Hatred organized as an army against them. And Jewish workers will have a party based on revolutionary socialism and opposed to labour reformism and to stalinism. The sooner the better for all.