The scenario poll question was phrased thus: “if the Likud prevents Netanyahu from reaching an agreement that involves giving up territory and elections were tomorrow – whom would you vote for?”
The poll predicted that 18 seats would go to Netanyahu’s new party, making it the Knesset’s largest. Likud would drop from 20 to 17, followed by Labor and Jewish Home at 16 each. Far-left Meretz would shoot up from 6 to 11 seats.
Analyst Jeremy Saltan (aka Knesset Jeremy) spoke to Arutz Sheva to make sense of all the figures, noting that the most surprising aspect of the poll is that Netanyahu’s seats would mostly come from voters who currently support parties other than Likud. About 46% of those seats would come from current Yisrael Beytenu supporters, and most of the rest would come from center-left parties.
Finance Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party would fall hard, dropping from 19 to 10 seats. Similarly, Yisrael Beytenu and Shas both would drop from 11 to 5. Hatnua would drop to 4 seats and Kadima would not make it in.
“In my opinion, 18 seats is not strong enough for Netanyahu to break off from Likud,” assessed Saltan. “Even if it would be the biggest party, the numbers don’t merit a breakaway.”
Scenario of Netanyahu following Sharon’s footsteps
The scenario plays out reports that a group of Likud MKs would “rebel”against withdrawals, and comes at a time when a crisis between Netanyahu and Jewish Home Chairman Naftali Bennett is threatening to break apart the coalition.
By breaking off to create his own party, Netanyahu would be following in the footsteps of the late former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Sharon created the Kadima party to break off from Likud in 2005 and force through the “Disengagement” Plan that expelled all Jews from Gaza and from several communities in northern Samaria.
Saltan warns that one must be cautious in interpreting scenario polls, as other factors – such as which MKs would follow Netanyahu into a new party, and which MK would take over the Likud – could highly influence the outcome.
The analyst notes that prior to Sharon’s breakaway from Likud, voters didn’t foresee that Kadima would be a mix-match of “refugee MKs” from various parties.
In response to the question of what Netanyahu should do if the Likud opposes a peace deal, 51% said he should accept the Likud’s decision, while only 25% responded that he should create a new party.
Saltan remarks that this response may show that while the poll indicates Netanyahu would retain the largest party, this doesn’t mean the majority of the Israeli public supports him breaking off to push through land withdrawals.
It looks like every PM of Israel is susceptible to be blackmailed by the Western powers.
@ yamit82:
Netanyahu is no Sharon. He will lose his Likud base if he tries it and the Left is already full of heirs apparent to the throne far more credible than Netanyahu.
I discount the polls for the simple reason the people conduct them hate Netanyahu as a man with no principles. Sure, they’d be more than be happy to use him for their own ends but he’d have to survive the day after.
The Likud is no longer his party and more or less has people in it who don’t want a Palestinian Arab state. The most Netanyahu can get is a limited Palestinian Arab state that accepts the legitimacy of Zionism and the Palestinian Arabs are not going to go there.
Netanyahu’s bluster against Naftali Bennett has no real basis in political reality and he knows it.
There is no peace to be had with those whose goal is genocide.
Friction between PM and minister threatens coalition
Bennett’s latest remarks on settlements in future Palestinian state slammed by Netanyahu and Peres
Tensions between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Economy Minister Naftali Bennett increased on Wednesday, with Netanyahu threatening the safety of the government coalition should Bennett fail to apologize for his personal attacks against him.
Recently, Bennett came under fire for criticizing Netanyahu’s statement that Israeli settlements could remain in a future Palestinian state. “Whoever even considers having Jews live in the Land of Israel under Palestinian sovereignty undermines our presence in Tel Aviv,” Bennett said.
Netanyahu responded by slamming Bennett, saying that he ruined his strategy to reveal Palestinian obstinacy over the issue of Israeli settlements.
After a heated exchange, Haaretz newspaper reported a source in the Prime Minister’s bureau as threatening Bennett’s seat in the government.
“Nobody will teach Netanyahu what love of Israel is, and what concern for the security of its citizens is. With all of Bennett’s claims, it’s not clear why he’s stuck to a seat in the government,” the senior source said.
“If he doesn’t apologize, he endangers the composition of the current government,” said Netanyahu’s bureau. “We have enough alternatives to Habayit Hayehudi. A government without Bennett can continue to worry about the security of the state just like every government before him.”
On Tuesday, Bennett had once again inflamed Netanyahu by continuing to criticize the idea of settlements remaining in a future Palestinian state. He claimed that any Jews left behind in Palestinian state would likely be killed.
“Do you know why? Why Jews cannot live under Palestinian rule? Do you know why? Why Palestinians can’t rule over Jews?” Bennett said, “Because they will kill them. And do you know how I know this? Because it has already happened.”
Sarah Netanyahu Hates Bennett and she controls wimpy BB.
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Background: Example of wording of Israeli apology
Background: Example of wording of Israeli apology
Dr. Aaron Lerner – IMRA 29 January 2014
In light of the apparent demand that Minister Bennett apologize to PM
Netanyahu for his remarks, it would be appropriate to consider the wording
of DM Yaalon’s apology to US Secretary of State John Kerry. Wording that was
apparently worked out in the course of an intensive conversation between
Yaalon and PM Netanyahu:
“Israel and the United states share a common goal to advance the peace talks
between Israel and the Palestinians led by Secretary Kerry.
We appreciate Secretary Kerry’s many efforts towards that’s end. The defense minister had
no intention to cause any offense to the secretary, and he apologizes if the
secretary was offended by words attributed to the minister.”
14 January 2014 announcement from the Media Bureau of
Minister of Defense Moshe Yaalon 14.01.14
For image
http://bit.ly/Ki8LRU