T. Belman. The answer to this problem is obvious but no one is talking about it. Get UTJ and Shas to accept Lieberman’s demand re draft legislation.
Also, I suspect the right wing block will get more seats if it is forcing the Hereidim to make concessions.
A new Israel Hayom poll conducted this week shows the Likud and Blue and White almost neck-and-neck, with 31 and 30 seats, respectively. If the small right-wing parties run as a single list, they will scoop up 19 seats – but the Right would still be unable to form a government without Avigdor Lieberman.
by Mati Tuchfeld, ISRAEL HAYOM
The second Knesset election of 2019 is getting off on the wrong foot for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the rest of the right-wing camp, who have a real chance of being voted out of power. A poll conducted by the Maagar Mohot Institute for Israel Hayom shows that without Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, the Right will win only 56 seats, five seats short of the minimum 61 needed to form a governing coalition.
However, there was also good news for the right-wing parties: according to the poll, all of them – with the exception of Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party – are expected to make it past the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%.
The poll, conducted among a representative sample of 507 adult Israelis with a margin of error of 4.3%, also indicated that whether the parties to the Right of the Likud or the parties on the Left manage to join forces and run as a “mega-bloc,” Lieberman will remain in a position to tip the scales.
Netanyahu’s Likud party was predicted to win 31 seats, with the center-left Blue and White party close on its heels at 30 seats. Labor, under newly elected leader and veteran legislator Amir Peretz, was predicted to win eight seats, with the same number predicted for the United Right.
United Torah Judaism was predicted to win seven seats – the same number projected for the secularist Lieberman. Six seats were predicted for both Shas and Meretz, under new party leader Nitzan Horowitz.
Four seats each were predicted for former prime minister, defense minister, and IDF chief of staff Ehud Barak’s new party and for the New Right under former Education Minister Naftali Bennett.
The poll predicted nine seats for the Joint Arab List.
When asked who they thought was best qualified to serve as prime minister, 35% of respondents picked Netanyahu. Less than one-quarter (22%) of respondents picked Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, and 12% said Barak was the best candidate for prime minister.
The poll also looked into the viability of various joint lists and party mergers. According to the results, if Labor MK Itzik Shmuli or Stav Shafir had been elected head of Labor and as a result, Labor had run on a joint list with Barak’s party and Meretz, the resulting left-wing list would have won 19 seats. However, that appears unlikely to happen with Peretz as Labor leader. If that scenario had come to pass, the left-wing list would have chipped away at Blue and White, leaving Gantz’s party with only 26 seats.
On the other side of the political map, if Habayit Hayehudi, the National Union, Otzma Yehudit, the New Right, and Zehut were to run together, the resulting right-wing list would scoop up no less than 19 seats, the poll showed. In that case, the list would take some seats away from the Likud, leaving Netanyahu’s party with 25 seats, and the right-wing bloc would still be unable to form a coalition without Lieberman.
Ted Belman Said:
Two or more parties create a joint list for election purposes. After the election they manage their affairs as separate parties. This is what the United Right did in the last election. It was formed of three parties Jewish Home (Peretz), National Union (Smotrich) & Otzma Yehudit.
What is a “technical bloc”?
@ Ted Belman:I am good at projections but not mind reading.
Blue/White says they do not want Liberman in Unity government because are courting UTJ/Shas. So if he is reading the tea leaves this might his only chance to be in government and relevant. He can then claim he won a victory over the Haredi.
The way I see it is that either there is a unity government which excludes UTJ and Shas or Shas and UTJ bend to stay in the government. That’s a no brainer for them. Also Liberman will be the Defense Minister and he will insist on the right to determine our Gaza policies. As I recall he wanted more aggressive action than Bibi’s calm for calm.
@ Bear Klein:
If they bend, will Liberman join the government or has he changed his demands?
Latest poll today shows again it is either a Unity Government or as Ted suggests get the UTJ/Shas to bend to Liberman (9 seats in this Kan poll).
Kann poll Likud 30 Blue and White 30 Yisrael Beytenu 9 Joint List 9 UTJ 8 Shas 7 Labor 7 Meretz 6 Barak 5 New Right w Feiglin 5 URP 4
See today’s Arutz Sheva for the latest self-destructive antics of the Israeli “Right.”
The opposition from the “Netanyahu Family” is a reference to Sara Netanyahu, who is admamantly opposed to any good-looking woman being in frequent contact with her husband. When Shaked was Minister of Justice, she insited on being present in the room whenever Bibi met with Shaked. Rumor has it that it was she who insisted on Shaked’s recent dismissal.
Tragic if a very able and valuable public servant is unable to continue her work, especially her efforts to reform the Israeli court system and secure the appointment of better and fairer judges, is thwarted by one woman’s sexual jealousy (however understandable that jealousy is, given Netanyahu’s admitted past moonshines), not any political motive. Only in Israel can this happen.
This headline of an article in today’s Jewish Press says it all
The report by David Israel describes how the various rightwing factions are feuding furiously among themselves, confronting each other with ultimatums, and obviously unable to agree to a unity slate. Israel believes that most of the rightwing parties will run separately, and hundreds of thousands of right votes will be lost because none of them will win enough vots to qualify for seats.
David Israel does not even mention a report in Arutz Sheva that some Rabbis at a national-religious yeshiva are planning to run a sixth right wing slate for the Knesset, because they object to women such as Ayelet Shaked, or any other woman, serving in the Knesset or in any government office. What ____holes! Our feuding pliticians have defeated their own national camp long before the election is even held.
Blue/White saying they would try form a unity government without Liberman is indicator that they are trying to work with Haredi plus other parties, including Likud members sans Bibi.
This IS NOT what I want but this is a possibility in Israeli politics.
@ Ted Belman:You could be correct. Especially Blue/White will demand Bibi step down and be replaced by someone else in the Likud.
So we will see what happens. Blue/White is also trying to find a way to work with the Haredi. The Haredi want Lapid neutralized some how.
Lots of players and it will be hard now to get a steady coalition. When they broke up the government with a year to run they made a mistake.
@ Bear Klein:
I stick to my suggestion. It is much easier to accomodate Liberman than Blue and White.
Blue & White have said they would try and form a unity government without Liberman.
@Ted, It might be to late for all that. No one left or right trusts Liberman at all anymore.
It is really starting to look like a unity government might be the only way to form a government and that will not be easy.
On a new Haredi draft law the best idea seems to be the top ~10% of Haredi Torah students get a waiver from the draft while they keep studying. The IDF then gets to draft the number they need from the Haredi (which is not estimated to be huge currently). The remainder get to work or go to university. That way the will not be a burden on the state and get to lead productive lives. This way the countries security needs and economic needs will be met and the best Yeshiva students can keep studying.
Pretty damn scary that lieberman could be the king maker. I feel sorry for Israelis, who knows what the issues are?
All I read about is whos gonna shag who? Why the looser p m feels he should be allowed to F U again.
Time to put Important issues before the voters, who gets a merc instead of a Volvo, a pay increase. A toy boy or sugar daddy allowance, a six day weekend and Shabbats off.
Don’t know if circumcing a polatItions tongue is kosher?