Poll: Likud leads over Zionist Union; Meretz, Shas could fall

New poll by i24news contradicts recent TV polls, says Likud poised to win, while leftwing Meretz, rightwing religious Shas might not even cross election threshold.

Ynet, i24news

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party is currently polling four seats ahead of its top rival, the center-left Zionist Union, the latest i24news poll revealed Sunday.

Infographic: i24news
Infographic: i24news

According to the survey, which was conducted by telephone among the representative sample of 500 Jewish and 200 Arab respondents aged 18 and over, if the elections were held today the Likud would get 27 seats and the Zionist Union would get 23. The poll had a four percent margin of error.

The results stand in contradiction those of other recent polls, which has the two parties tied in a dead heat, or even put the Zionist Union ahead of Netanyahu.

Two prominent parties who were running the risk of not passing Israel’s newly instated 4 percent election threshold were the left wing Meretz and religious right wing Shas, which for the first time was overtaken by Yahad (Together) party – a Shas offshoot led by former Shas leader Eli Yishai – which was polling at 5.

Infographic: i24news
Infographic: i24news

Meanwhile, like in previous polls, the United Arab List – a political merger of Israel’s three Arab parties – came in third, polling at 12 Knesset seats.

Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi party, which aspires to establish itself as the third largest — and to make its leader a viable future candidate for prime minister — came in with a mere 11 seats, much lower than initial polls.

Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party was on the rise, riding on its social welfare platform, with 9 Knesset seats. Yet its main rival for centrist voters, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, was polling at a much higher 11.

Yisrael Beytenu, led by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, was polling at 7, slightly higher than in recent polls, which saw it scratch the elections threshold — which, ironically, the party itself put on the books during the previous government.

The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party is doubtlessly enjoying the slump of rival Shas, once more under Aryeh Deri’s stewardship, though it enjoys a solid and loyal base of ultra-Orthodox voters.

According to Prof. Avi Degani, head of the Geocartography institute which led the poll, the Likud’s popularity does not seem compromised by the recent string of scandals in which Netanyahu and his party are embroiled, including the ongoing saga regarding Sarah Netanyahu’s allegedly exorbitant expenses.

Prof. Degani attributed Netanyahu’s lead to the loyalty of his core supporters, the traditional Likud voters who aren’t overly impressed with the wave of criticism directed at the leader.

On the other hand, Netanyahu’s chief rival Isaac Herzog is faltering, as the leader of the Zionist Union is facing allegations that he’s lacking in charisma and perhaps even unfit to be at the helm of the country at this trying period. Tzipi Livni’s lack of popularity represents another problem for the Zionist Union, with some arguing the party would be better off without her, and the results of the poll, where the party garnered 23 seats, bear this out.

February 23, 2015 | 18 Comments »

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18 Comments / 18 Comments

  1. @ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
    @ bernard ross:

    H/T HB

    At times screaming with rage, Rudy Giuliani excoriates Barack Obama for his weak and feckless policies toward the global threats of radical Islam and a nuclear-armed Iran. This powerful speech was delivered at the Iranian-American Community symposium “Countering Islamic Fundamentalism, and a Nuclear-Armed Iran,” February 13, 2015, in Phoenix, Arizona.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0hUtumtQpA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYBTv1Z0U18

  2. @ bernard ross:

    Yes that’s it save and and study it because I know it’s factual and the government of Israel BB and Y’alon hae been keeping it from the media and the Israeli people.

    Do the current elections have anything to do with this situation? Don’t know yet.

  3. @ yamit82:
    perhaps they are to be the “hessians” of the gulf monarchies in their wars agains the persians? They were given lots of money by the monarchies. Sending hungry men off to fight wars is at the same time a solution to Egypts internal problems

    Egyptian president wants joint Arab force to fight Islamist terror

    Read more: The Times of Israel | News from Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish World http://www.timesofisrael.com/#ixzz3SaZQk0ny
    Follow us: @timesofisrael on Twitter | timesofisrael on Facebook

  4. +++SOURCE: Al Arabiya News 20 Feb.’15:”U.S.fears Palestinian ruin as Israel denies funds”,Agence France Presse AFP, Washington Friday, 20 February 2015

    The United States voiced fears Thursday that the Palestinian Authority may be teetering on the brink of collapse because of a lack of funding, as Israel withholds taxes and donor aid stalls.

    Washington has been in urgent talks with regional leaders as well as other stakeholders in the frozen Middle East peace process in a bid to try to release more funds.

    “It’s true we’re very concerned about the continued viability of the Palestinian Authority if they do not receive funds soon,” State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters.

    Psaki warned that if the Palestinian Authority ceased security cooperation with Israel “or even decides to disband, as they have said they may do as early as the first week of March,” it could trigger a dire situation

  5. @ SHmuel HaLevi 2:

    Dr. Aaron Lerner- IMRA: Yes, it is a bit hard to comprehend, but Israel
    is adding another $3 billion of stealth jets that are only of any value if
    EXISTING DETECTION TECHNOLOGY is not implemented by our enemies over the
    coming decades. ]

    Israel to purchase 14 more F-35 fighter jet amid tensions with US With political tensions between the US and Israel at record high, Israel announces it will buy cutting-edge fighter jets, set to arrive in Israel in
    late 2016.
    Associated Press
    Published: 02.22.15, 17:22 / Israel News
    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4629553,00.html

    Israel said Sunday it will purchase 14 additional next-generation F-35
    fighter jets for approximately $3 billion. The purchase comes amid heightened diplomatic tensions between Israel and the US over a speech by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

    The deal adds to the fleet of 19 US-made jets already purchased in 2010, the Defense Ministry said. The recent signing with Lockheed Martin Corp. includes an option for 17 more in the future. The first such planes are toarrive in Israel in late 2016.

  6. @ yamit82:
    Since 25% of the voters are still “undecided” all polls, including ours are quite unreliable.
    Netanyahu is walking on very thin ice. The Likud may lead but if he does a repeat of a prop and red marker job and ego trip in Washington, Likud will not came out of it.
    Shas is issuing very bad noises out of its ranks and lost major backing.
    Meretz is again directing its folk to vote for the Obama-Livni-Hertzog. Even with that the later are not taking over.
    It is all pending on the speech.

  7. SHmuel HaLevi 2 Said:

    Yishai-Otzmah: 6 + – 1

    Interesting I predicted they would surprise by getting 5-7 mandates now I think they might get more. This should push Bennett further to the right but would BB include them in a coalition? I doubt it but it serves his purpose if they nominate BB to form government then he can like Bennett ignore them and go with moderates and leftists.

  8. There has been no changes of magnitude for several weeks, except for a momentary drop on Jewish Home mandates forecast and the fading of meretz. meretz voters have been ordered to vote for Obama-Livni-Hertzog, a maneuver quite old in the renegades ever shifting alliances camp.
    Our poll is established as the most reliable. And even that with a grain of salt. 25% of the voters are not declaring yet.
    Likud 26 + – 1
    Obama-meretz_Livni- Hertzog: 21 + – 1
    Jewish Home: 14 + – 1
    United Islamic Front: 11 + – 1
    Lapid: 9 + – 1
    United Jewish Orthodox list: 9 + – 1
    Mr. Lieberman 6 + – 1
    Mr. Kohalon 6 + – 1
    Yishai-Otzmah: 6 + – 1
    SHAS: 4 + – 1
    Meretz: 3 + – 1