The Likud would win more than twice as many mandates as any other party if Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu advanced the next general election, according to a Smith Research poll sponsored by The Jerusalem Post this week.
Netanyahu said in interviews this week that he had no intention of advancing the election, which is set for October 22, 2013. The poll of 500 respondents representing a statistical sample of the Jewish and Arab adult population in Israel was taken on Sunday and Monday and had a had a 4.5 percentage point margin of error.
Likud would win 31 seats, followed by Labor and Yisrael Beytenu with 15 each, Kadima with 13, former journalist Yair Lapid’s new Atid Party with 11, Shas eight, United Torah Judaism six, National Union four, and Habayit Hayehudi and Meretz three each. The three Arab parties together would win 11 mandates.
Altogether, the Right-Center bloc would win 67 seats and the Left-Center bloc 53. The split in the current Knesset is 65-55.
Eighteen percent of respondents consider themselves undecided, 30% of whom voted for Kadima in the last election.
Only a quarter of Kadima voters in 2009 intend to vote for the party in the next election. Some 25% support Lapid’s party, 14% Labor, and 25% are undecided.
I’ve been “moderated” out of existence again. In China, they call this being “harmonized”. Wrong — I haven’t even been moderated, just zapped.
@ Ted Belman:
It doesn’t seem that dramatic to me, Ted. I read the poll results to mean:
1. The “Center-Right” bloc will have gained two seats — only two, no more
2. NU doesn’t appear any more likely than before to join the ruling coalition. Together, Likud, Beytenu, Shas and UTJ would have 60 seats — only. That means the coming government would be held hostage not only to all of the above, but to yet another party (to make up for the loss of Barak’s rump Labor group). That translates into a “Center-Right” bloc with even LESS freedom to govern than it has now. Even Ehud Barak may not be out of the picture, as Bibi may pull some strings to include him in the government.
Arnold Harris, while we’re on the subject of sobering expectations, Mitt Romney is still trailing Barack Obama in Ohio by some 2-5%. That is a must-win state, along with others in which Romney still has ground to cover. You seem to think this race is all about socialism. It isn’t. If I were to pick an underlying theme for the coming election, it is about the utter lack of confidence many Americans — especially young, educated white voters — have that they will ever have a lifestyle comparable to that enjoyed by their parents.
Read Wikipedia’s article on INCOME INEQUALITY. It tells about the obvious widening of the gap between lower- and middle-income peons and their upper-income overlords, but this is only part of the story. The Wiki article includes data that shows income steadily rising (much more for the rich than for the poor) since the 1970s, but this ignores the fact that many of the services that didn’t used to cost a family money (such as child care, housekeeping services, etc.) now cost hard-earned dollars.
The net result is that real income has actually declined since when our parents were our age. This has nothing to do with “Socialism” or “Capitalism”, “Right” or “Left” — it has to do with the fact that those in power for the past 30-40 years have ignored the plight of the average American. At that, I’m just talking about things the voter can actually FEEL, in terms of lifestyle. I haven’t said anything yet about the fact that even this is largely illusory; that it’s being financed by an unsustainable level of debt that is sure to come to roost in the near future. Americans are feeling more and more DISENFRANCHISED; and the Democratic Party has traditionally been the refuge of those who feel disenfranchised — originally Southerners and immigrants, then blacks, and now even educated white males. Obama, therefore, has an excellent chance of getting re-elected.
Lapid seems to be the Jack in the polls. Hopefully, he avoids the pitfalls of his late father Tommy, by thinking first before making rash statements. He is definitely adding a freshness to the usual Kadima nonsense.
He should seriously consider making good with Netanyahu but will have a long way to go to catch-up to Bibi’s classic international style. The Prime Minister of Canada is not only a very powerful supporter of Israel, but Bibi in particular. The Foreign Minister John Baird recently returned to Canada after an amazing visit to Israel and he has been going Gaga and was highly impressed with what he saw and whom he met.
Also Mike states “The Israeli Left is dead and the western Left helped kill it”, a very interesting point.
The numbers are more dramatic than this article suggests. Arab parties have never been part of any governing coalition in Israel. Thus if you subtract them from the left, the right are trending 67 seats and the left minus the Arab parties are trending 42.
If 30% of the 13% of the undecideds voted for Kadima in 2009, a bunch of these could very likely slide over into one of the right-center parties to support Netanyahu’s apparently successful coalition. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Likud’s coalition picks up 70% of the Knesset seats.
And I think it that in coming years it will be increasingly apparent:
— that socialism is merely a destroyer of modern economies;
— that the Arabs have no intention of making real peace with Israel;
— that Israel in particular and the Jewish nation in general must never again place their well-being and possibly their long-term existence on the good will of any non-Jewish government or society;
— that Israel, as the homeland of the now once-again growing Jewish nation, must expand its national power base;
— and that an increase of the national power base will require not only much greater geographic defense in depth, but active expansionism to acquire the living space needed to accommodate a much larger future Jewish population for the Jewish state.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
The Israeli Left is dead and the western Left helped kill it.
Israel Thrives
http://israel-thrives.blogspot.com/