New poll shows Left-Arab bloc winning 61-seat majority even without support from Liberman, as Blue and White surges to 37 seats.
The Blue and White party has gained ground on the Likud, a new poll shows, with the center-left party surging to 37 seats, compared to just 31 for the Likud.
According to a new poll conducted by Maagar Mohot and released by Israel Hayom Friday morning, if new elections were held today, the left-wing – Arab bloc would win an outright majority of 61 seats in the 23rd Knesset, a gain of four seats over its current 57 seats; while the right-wing – religious bloc would fall to 51 seats, four less than its current 55. That is the poorest showing for the right-wing – religious bloc in any poll conducted in the past year.
The anti-Zionist Joint Arab List party, which won 13 seats in the September election, would rise to 14 seats if new elections were held today.
Labor-Gesher, which won six seats in September, would remain stable at six if new elections were held today, while the far-left Democratic Union, an alliance of Meretz and the Israel Democratic Party, would fall from five seats to four.
Yisrael Beytenu, which has pushed for a unity government, would retain its eight seats if new elections were held today.
The haredi parties would lose a total of one seat, with United Torah Judaism retaining its seven seats, and Shas falling from nine to eight
The New Right, which split off from Yamina early in the 22nd Knesset, would rise from three seats to five, while the other Yamina factions, Jewish Home and National Union, would fail to cross the electoral threshold, receiving the equivalent of two seats, short of the nearly four required to enter the Knesset. Otzma Yehudit, would receive the equivalent of one seat.
If the Likud was led by Gideon Sa’ar, who is challenging Netanyahu for leadership of the Likud in this month’s primary election, the right-religious bloc would perform far better, receiving 56 seats to 57 for the left-Arab bloc, with Yisrael Beytenu sinking to seven seats.
UTJ would retain it seven seats, while Shas would soar to double digits with 11.
The New Right would rise to seven seats, while the Jewish Home-National Union and Otzma lists would still fail to cross the threshold, with the equivalent of two seats each.
On the Left, Blue and White would win 33 seats, maintaining its current strength, while the Joint Arab List would rise to 15 seats.
Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union would each lose a seat, falling to five and four seats respectively.
The poll also found that Netanyahu’s edge in a head-to-head direct election to the premiership has shrunk, falling to a two-point lead over Blue and White chief Benny Gantz, 42% to 40%.
Gideon Sa’ar, by contrast, trailed Gantz by five points, 31% to 36%.
@ Adam DalglieshCase 4000 is a serious case and Bibi must be acquitted in this case to not look corrupt.
Israel has many problems. I for one believe it needs a new election system.
It does need a government NOW that passes budgets for all sorts of reasons and implements and improves programs for healthcare and housing among other things. So it is important that the Likud has someone at the top who can form a coalition. Bibi clearly does not appear to be that person. Since he does not appear to be stepping aside the only one at this point who will oppose him is Saar.
@ Bear Klein: If you read the whole article carefully, the results are more complicated and nuanced than the party vote breakdown.
Saar plainly has a name recognition problem. Can he overcome it by March 2? Who knows? In any case, Israeli voters have have on at least three elections blamed political parties more than individuals for alleged corruption or other problems. When Rabin was forced to step down in 1976 because of a minor corruption charge, and Peretz took his place as candidate, it was Begin, not Peretz, who won the next election. When Olmert did not run again as leader of the Kadima party, whoever replaced him as party standard-bearer (can’t remember who it was) was soundly trounced, and the party disintegrated. It no longer even exists, althout Blue-White is more or less a recreation of it. When Rabin was assassinated and replaced by Peretz as the Labor standard-bearer, Netanyahu unexpectedly won. The reason was that while the Israeli people were united in grief for Rabin, the majority still opposed Oslo, and Peretz was an even more fervent supporter of Oslo than Rabin.
Those who blame Netanyahu for the country’s political crisis may well reject Saar as well, if they see the Likud as collectively responsible for alleged government corruption.
Voters might see Saar as just a stand-in for Bibi, despite their rivalry.
@ Bear Klein: For me, the real issue is not Netanyahu-vs. Saar, but who gets to choose the next government–the six million eligible Israeli voters, or the Supreme Cout and Attorney General. Because there is extensive circumstantial evidence (which I describe in detail in my comments under Dr. Sherman’s most recent column, which see) that the charges against Bibi are politically motivated and of very dubious legitimacy, the voters are not being given a genuinely free choice. Obviously, when forced to choose between a candidate facing criminal charges and one who isn’t (although there is considerable evidence that Gantz is guilty of a fraud that cost Israeli taxpapyers several million dollars), they have no meaningful choice but to vote for the candidate who is not facing criminal proceedings. Not only do the very questionable criminal charges prejudice the voters against Bibi, but even those who believe him to be innocent must address the question of how he could govern while on trial, how the country could deal with other issues while all eyes are focused on the trial, and how a serving Prime Minister on trial will impact Israel’s international image. The Supreme Court and the A.G. whom they and the Bar Association selected have in effect defeated the candidate who would probably win the election if he had not been indicted, even before the election is held. This inherently corrupt oligarchical system of government is a more important issue that Bibi vs. Saar , Bibi vs. Gantz or Saar vs. Gantz.
I believe that Bibi should refuse to withdraw himself as a candidate to protest this corruption of Israeli democracy and the rule of law. Gantz and his Blue-White “comrades” are scheduled to win in any case by the courts. But Bibi should only run if he is willing to denounce the system itself and make that his central campaign issue. So far, he has refused to do this, although the system has politically destroyed him.
If Sa’ar leads Likud
Right 56
Center-Left 42
Blue and White 33
Likud 31
Joint List 15
Shas 11
UTJ 7
Yisrael Beytenu 7
New Right 7
Labor-Gesher 5
Democratic Union 4
A coalition could be formed. Perhaps even Saar as PM and Labor-Gesher joining the right.
Latest Poll shows this scenario also:
Sa’ar has the edge over Netanyahu according to the survey since while both won’t manage to lead the right-wing religious bloc to the necessary 61 Knesset seats, Sa’ar is predicted to secure 56 seats while Netanyahu falls to a low of just 51 for the bloc.
So the right would be stronger with Saar and a coalition could be formed if he was the head of the Likud.