Poll: Blue and White gains narrow lead over Likud, but right bloc remains strong

Recent political and diplomatic developments do little to sway voters, as most still support a Likud-led coalition. Some 47% of respondents believe Netanyahu is best suited for the role of prime minister, but only 56% say they definitely plan to vote come March 2.

by  Mati Tuchfeld, ISRAEL HAYOM

Knesset dissolves, early election to be held September 17

A voter casts a ballot in the Knesset election | Illustration: Yehoshua Yosef

The political stalemate gripping Israel since the 2019 April election remained largely unfazed by the major events of the past few weeks, and the March 2 election may not prove to be a tiebreaker, a poll commissioned by Israel Hayom and i24NEWS showed Thursday.

Israel called the unprecedented third round of elections in the span of one year after the races in April and September failed to produce a clear winner and neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor challenger Blue and White leader Benny Gantz were able to cobble together a government.

The survey, conducted by the Maagar Mochot polling institute, found that if elections were held at this time, Blue and White would win 36 Knesset seats, giving it a narrow lead over the Likud’s 34 mandates.

The Joint Arab List would retain its position as the third-largest party with 13 seats, followed by the Labor-Gesher-Meretz alliance (8), Yamina, which comprises the New Right, National Union, and Habayit Hayehudi parties (8), Shas (8), United Torah Judaism (7), and Yisrael Beytenu, with six parliament seats.

Blue and White leader Benny Gantz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (KOKO, AFP)

The far-right Otzma Yehudit party failed to secure the prerequisite four-Knesset-seat electoral threshold of 3.25% of the votes.

These results give the right-wing bloc 57 confirmed mandates, and the center-left bloc 44.  It is unclear who Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman will endorse, nor is it clear whether the Joint Arab List will throw its weight behind Gantz, as it did after the September 17 elections.

Of both Yisrael Beytenu and the Joint Arab List endorse Blue and White’s leader, he will have 63 mandates – up two seats from the 61-MK majority necessary to form a government.

Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman (AFP/Menahem Kahana)

Should Lieberman endorse Netanyahu, the prime minister, too, would secure 63 seats and would be able to form a right-wing coalition.

Asked what were the chances they will vote in the third elections, 56% of respondents said they “definitely” plan to vote, 28% said they were “very likely” to vote, 6% said they were “likely” to vote, and 10% said they were “unlikely” to cast their ballot on March 2.

But have the recent political and diplomatic development – Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit’s decision to indict Netanyahu on corruption charges, the rollout of the Trump administration’s “deal of the century,” potential normalization of ties with Sudan, and the recent security escalation, to name a few –  affected potential voters? According to the data – not by much.

Some 55% of respondents said they plan on again voting for the same party, 27% said they were “very likely” to cast the same ballot, 11% said they were “somewhat likely” to vote similarly, and 7% said they were “unlikely” to vote for the same party again.

Netanyahu remains the favorite for the position of the prime minister, with 47% of respondents saying he was best suited for the roll. Thirty-nine percent of those polled said they believed Gantz would make a better prime minister.

As for the public’s support for US President Donald Trump’ Middle East peace plan, 35% of respondents said Israel should accept the deal in full, 31% said Israel should reject it, and the reminder 34% said they either did not know or had no opinion on the matter.

On the questions of whether Israel should apply sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and the large settlement blocks in Judea and Samaria, and if so, whether it should be done before or after the March vote, 32% supported annexation prior to the elections, 23% supported annexation but only after the vote is decided, 20% said they do not support the move regardless of when it might take place, and 25% said they either did not know or had no opinion on the matter.
As for the possibility that the center-left bloc and Yisrael Beytenu would form a minority government with the outside support of the Joint Arab List, 54% of those polled said they would oppose such a coalition, 29% said they would support it, and 17% said they either did not know or had no opinion on the matter.

Some 30% of respondent further said they prefer a right-wing government led by Likud, 23% favored the center-left-led minority government with the outside support of the Joint Arab List, 17% said a narrow national unity government of Likud and Blue and White would be best for Israel, 17% supported a large unity government comprising Likud, Blue and White, and the right-wing bloc, and 13% said they had no opinion on the matter.

The poll was conducted by the Maagar Mochot polling institute among 506 respondents comprising a representative sample of Israelis 18 and over. The statistical margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.

February 8, 2020 | 4 Comments »

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  1. Center, left and Arab parties near majority in TV poll, as Netanyahu’s bloc dips
    Despite bump in support for Gantz and his allies, survey predicts Avigdor Liberman will retain his kingmaker status, potentially setting up further political stalemate

    By TOI staff7 February 2020, 10:52 pm
    A composite photo showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, and Blue and White party chief, Benny Gantz, right, speaking separately at a media conference in Jerusalem, December 8, 2019. (Yonatan Sindel/Hadas Parush/Flash90)
    Blue and White chair Benny Gantz would fall just two seat shorts of a majority together with left-leaning and predominantly Arab parties if the upcoming national elections were held now, according to a television poll released Friday.

    Blue and White would get 35 seats if the March 2 vote was today, Channel 13 said, up two from its current tally and similar to the results of other recent polls.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud would pick up 33 seats, a one seat gain from the last elections.

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    The Joint List, an alliance of four majority Arab parties, was forecast to win 14 seats, up one from its present seat count.

    Joint List present their party slate to the Central Elections Committee in the Knesset, January 15, 2020. (Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90)
    While the mostly Arab Joint list broke with decades of tradition after September’s Israeli elections and recommended Gantz for prime minister, it is not clear if it will back him again after the March vote.

    Party MK Yousuf Jabareen last week said that it would not back him again after Gantz promised he would work to adopt the Trump peace plan if elected. Gantz said he would do so in coordination with the Palestinians and other regional players.

    Labor-Gesher-Meretz, an alliance of Labor-Gesher with the left-wing Meretz party, got 10 seats in the Channel 13 poll. Labor-Gesher picked up six seats in September, while Meretz ran in the last elections as part of the Democratic Camp, which received five seats.

    Avigdor Liberman’s right-wing secularist Yisrael Beytenu party received eight seats in the survey, maintaining its current strength.

    The ultra-Orthodox Shas, which now has nine seats, dropped to seven in the poll, while fellow ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism matched its present total of seven seats.

    Rounding out the poll was the national-religious Yamina party, which was forecast to drop from seven to six seats. Otzma Yehudit, an extreme right-wing party whose inclusion in Yamina Netanyahu pushed for, did not pass the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25 percent of the total vote.

    The results gave Blue and White 59 seats together with Labor-Gesher-Meretz and the Joint List, two short of a majority in the 120 seat Knesset.

    Likud and the religious parties, which acted as a united bloc after the vote in September, would slip from 55 to 53 seats.

    Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman speaks during a press conference at the Knesset on December 11, 2019. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
    The poll results set up Liberman to remain as kingmaker between the Knesset blocs, with neither Gantz nor Netanyahu having a clear path to a majority without him, likely portending further political deadlock.

    Asked who was better suited to be prime minister, 44% of respondents to the Channel 13 poll, said Netanyahu, 32% Gantz, 16% neither and 8% didn’t know.

    The survey, conducted by pollster Camil Fuchs, included 701 respondents and had a 3.8% margin of error.

    TV polls last week had Likud inching closer to Blue and White, following the release of US President Donald Trump’s peace plan during a White House ceremony attended by Netanyahu.

    However, Netanyahu was also indicted last week on graft charges — making him the first Israeli premier to become a criminal defendant while in office — and has been forced to walk back a vow to swiftly annex parts of the West Bank after the Trump administration opposed him doing so at least until a new Israeli government is formed.

    The upcoming elections are the third in less than a year, after the first two failed to produce a government, a first in Israeli history.

    I had trouble accessing the Arutz Sheva article ( possibly too much site traffic shortly after Shabbat, with all the Orthodox readers at once going back online?), but this is a Times of Israel article about the same poll. The polling results have varied widely recently, indicating perhaps a lot of volitility in the electorate. I posted the Arutz Sheva article about this poll somewhere else on Israpundit-can’t remember where.

  2. In a more recent poll reported by Arutz Sheva, the “Left” blocs support had risen to 59 seats (including the Arab parties), while the “Right” blocs support had dwindled to 53 seats.

  3. PM Netanyahu says he rejected concessions, is working to ‘prevent Israel’s funeral’
    PM Netanyahu says ‘land for peace’ is ‘land for terror,’ says Israeli left has worked unendingly to give away Israel’s heartland.

    PM Netanyahu
    Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Saturday night spoke at a conference in Maaleh Adumim, emphasizing that “without Judea and Samaria, our existence is in danger.”

    “Without our homeland, we have no existence, we are left hanging – we have no past, we have no future. This is our identity and our legacy, and our future is here. Therefore, our enemies are trying to uproot us from the heart of our homeland. They will not succeed. We are here, and we will always remain here,” Netanyahu said.

    “After the great euphoria of the Six Day War, a dangerous perspective became entrenched in the left. According to this perspective, Instead of fighting for Judea and Samaria, we need to give them up. They claimed that if we give these lands to our enemies, they will do us a favor and make peace with our existence. They said ‘land for peace’ and we received ‘land for terror’ – buses exploding, restaurants exploding, hotels exploding. The wave of weakness reached a magnitude such that a Prime Minister of Israel, Ehud Olmert, was willing to give the Western Wall to the Palestnians. The same Olmert, friend and close adviser of [Blue and White Chairman MK] Benny Gantz, is planning to go soon to [Palestinian Authority Chairman] Mahmoud Abbas so that they can work together against [US] President [Donald] Trump’s ‘deal of the century.’

    “And what does Benny Gantz say about this? ‘He can do what he wants.’ Is that how a leader speaks? Benny Gantz? It’s unbelievable. That’s not how a leader acts. I say to Benny Gatnz: Disconnect yourself from Olmert, condemn him, what are you stuttering about? Say it very clearly. A leader does not speak like this. This is how you speak when you cannot form a government without [Joint Arab List Chairman MK] Ahmad Tibi.

    “If for years this is what the Jews heard, what will the nations of the world say? They said and say the same thing exactly: Pull back, pull back, pull back. From my first day in public life I rejected this idea outright and I fought against it with all my strength from my first job in the United Nations. I fought with good friends against Oslo, the expulsions, and the withdrawals. But the demands from Israel to withdraw kept growing, and they reached their peak in the eleven years when I stood with my head held high against two US administrations. They worked against us, with the unending support of the left and Israel’s media, who always demanded that I withdraw and compromise.

    “I’ll tell you something I haven’t said until now. After the funeral of [former Israeli President] Shimon Peres, a senior US figure sent me a message: ‘If you want such a great funeral, you need to start giving in.’ I told her: ‘I’m not worried about my funeral, I’m worried about preventing the funeral of my country.’

    “I succeeded in standing up to all of the enormous pressure, because I have the ability to speak before tens of millions in the American public. For dozens of years, I’ve been speaking with them in their language, and they believe me and believe in me. Therefore, I can have an influence for the good of our country. The strongest influence in the US is public opinion, and anyone who cannot influence public opinion there will end up giving in to pressure.”

    Praising US President Donald Trump, Netanyahu continued: “Three years ago, we received a golden opportunity to change the path of history: President Trump was elected – a personal friend of mine for many years, and the greatest friend Israel who Israel has ever had in the White House.”

    “I saw this as an opportunity to move from defensive to offensive, and use a historic opportunity. Our rivals did not understand. When Trump wanted to visit Israel, three of Gantz’s party members signed an appeal calling to boycott Trump’s arrival. Benny Gantz’s senior advisers, Ronen Tzur and Joel Benenson, compared President Trump – the best president ever for Israel – to Hitler. I call on Gantz to fire them immediately. This evening. They cannot serve as your advisers, they cannot continue speaking in your name. What are they advising you?

    “When you are surrounded by people, by MKs, who tell you that you cannot meet with President Trump, people who are calling him Hitler and opposing the ‘deal of the century,’ you understand that there is deception here.

    “We work in the opposite fashion: For three years we have worked closely with President Trump and his staff. I have spoken with him about leaving the Iran deal, about Jerusalem, about the Golan Heights, about Judea and Samaria, and to my delight the policies did indeed change, thanks to his courage. At first he left the Iran deal, then he recognized Jerusalem, moved the Embassy, recognized our sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and recently agreed to apply Israeli law to Judea and Samaria.”

    Regarding the peace plan, Netanyahu said: “Last week we reached the climax: The deal of the century. It includes a historic revolution. Until now, all the diplomatic plans required Israel to agree to make real concessions. They called it ‘gestures.’ The Palestinians were not required to give anything. Now the exact opposite has happened: Israel is receiving real things, and the Palestinians are required to fulfill a list of demands. Whether or not they fulfill those requirements, Israel will receive US backing to apply Israeli law in the Jordan Valley and Dead Sea areas and over all of the Jewish towns in Judea and Samaria – all of them, without exception.

    “We’re in the midst of mapping the area that according to the Trump plan will be part of the State of Israel. It’s a lot of land. We will lead this, and President Trump will agree to it. I trust him completely, and I trust myself completely. But I don’t trust [Blue and White Chairman MK] Benny Gantz. If it were up to Gantz – it would not happen.

    “With Gantz, we will have the loss of the century, instead of the deal of the century. He wants to implement the deal of the century with international backing. Will the United Nations agree? Will the European Union? Will [Blue and White leader MK] Yair Lapid, who wants to expel 80,000-90,000 settlers? Let’s say all of them agree, which will not happen: Even then Gantz will need the agreement of Ahmad Tibi, with whom he almost formed a government and without whom he has no government.”

    This is a campaign speech by Netanyahu, as reported by Arutz Sheva.His foreign and Palestine parties have not been as pure as he claims. Still, I think he makes a good case againdt Blue-White. The speech is worth a read.

  4. Polls. Should we rely on that tool? Depends on our self delusion willingness. I will vote as I decide at the voting station.