[This totally discedits the CBS poll and assertion that Israel Stands Alone]
The hawkish Emergency Committee for Israel is coming out with a poll today that backs its view that the U.S. has a deeply pro-Israel electorate, one that’s alarmed about Iran’s intentions and skeptical of President Obama’s outreach to the Muslim world.
They’ve shared GOP pollster John McLaughlin’s survey of 1,000 likely voters, and its cross-tabs, in full. And while there are always reasons to be skeptical of polls by advocacy groups that back their views, the sample — 51% of those surveyed have a favorable view of Obama’s defense and national security policy — tilts if anything slightly more toward the White House than other recent public polling.
The results suggest that President Obama’s stance toward the Middle East is not as popular as his foreign policy as a whole, with a plurality disapproving of his handling of Israel and, strikingly, 47% saying his policy of “outreach to the Muslim world” has “decreased” U.S. security, to the 33% who say it’s increased our security.
The poll — using questions that some may find leading — finds large majorities don’t believe that the U.S. can stop Iran’s nuclear program with sanctions, and surprising numbers are open to military action: 60% said they’d support a military strike if sanctions don’t work.
Underlying this: While a slim plurality said Iran was unlikely to shoot a nuclear weapon at the U.S. (the questions don’t worry too much about the actual capabilities), large majorities said they thought it likely that Ian would attack Israel (80%) or provide a nuclear weapon to terrorists (85%).
The poll also makes the case that support for Israel — the focus of ECI’s slashing ad campaigns this year — is a salient issue to large numbers of voters. It finds that 53% would be more likely to vote for a candidate “you perceive as pro-Israel,” to 24% who would be less likely. While the pro-Israel candidate wins the favor of all of the political groups, Democrats are nearly split on the issue, while Republicans overwhelmingly say they would vote for the pro-Israel option.
UPDATE: Bill Kristol uses the numbers to argue that the “real Israel lobby” is “the American people.”
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“What the survey shows is this: The American people strongly support the state of Israel, and want their elected representatives to do so as well. An astounding 93 percent of those polled say the United States should be concerned about the security of the state of Israel. A majority—54 percent—say the U.S. should be “very concerned” about Israel’s security. Virtually the same number care that their elected representatives be pro-Israel. When asked, “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate whom you perceive as pro-Israel?,” 53 percent say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate they saw as pro-Israel, 24 percent less likely. Even more striking, the same number—53 percent—say they could not vote for a candidate if he were anti-Israel, even if that candidate agreed with them on most other issues.”
Not really. New York is much more Catholic and ethnically tribal. The downstate suburbs are the swing vote, especially Long Island, which is more like north New Jersey.
What I meant was that Andrew Cuomo has so many negatives (the ultimate fixer) that all it took for Paladino to surge was to be a bit more like Gov. Christie after the Sept 14 primary. Carl could have gotten past all the primary dirt if he had stopped the really nasty namecalling, especially with Sheldon Silver. “Dictator” was a big improvement over Antichrist, but then he switched to “criminal”. Much of the Jewish community saw that as attacking an observant Jew. Best to have left his beef with Silver for after the election.
Gave all the media, even the NY Post, the excuse to solely focus on the personal stuff, so far avoiding the real issues. New York is actually more like the country of Greece than California. But, a lot will happen in the next three weeks.
Christie has a terrific style, like a teddy bear wielding a baseball bat.
Don’t know with Paladino in NY and Christi in NJ it changes the wuus image of the North East, wouldn’t it be nice to have our own God Father in Albany? Once out of NYC the rest of the state politically resemble Oklahoma and Iowa.
yamit: Bill Clinton is going to start complaining about the pesky Russian voters of Brighton Beach after November 2. 🙂
Like a mini-Brooklyn Beitenu Party in NY9 with a mini-Shas in NY13 …the liberals are mostly in districts where there is no real contest, so who knows what will get them motivated to vote. It is not as if the governor’s contest is so inspiring.
Thanks Bird I knew I can count on you for getting the facts of the matter not to mention the truth as well. BTW I agree with you re: the suspicious stat of 78% Jews voting for Obama. Some us enjoy lying to Pollsters.
Yamit – you should read the McLaughlin poll for ECI before you assume the
This poll is skewed to Democrats. Commentary’s Contentions had a much better analysis, based on Bill Kristol’s take, and they still have to drill down through the 600+ pages of crosstabs. From the basic survey:
Question #1: HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT YOU WILL VOTE IN THE NOVEMBER ELECTION FOR UNITED STATES CONGRESS? Total 1000
VERY LIKELY 89.9
SOMEWHAT LIKELY 8.4
ALREADY VOTED/EARLY 1.6
Question #50: WITH WHICH POLITICAL PARTY ARE YOU AFFILIATED? Total 1000
REPUBLICAN 32.5
DEMOCRAT 39.6
INDEPENDENT 24.8
DK/REFUSED 3.1
If anything, perhaps the poll was skewed to older voters, but that is who is more likely to vote in any U.S. election.
Anyway, ECI is only focussed on four elections, according to their website.
Based on what is happening in the New York congressional elections, I would say dissatisfaction with Obama’s policy with Israel is an issue that is creating openings for some serious GOP challengers in a few CDs that the Dems thought were 100% safe. Yes, I am being cryptic, because it is like a media blackout in New York that there are any serious Republican challengers for Congress south of Albany. All the media oxygen is delirious over the governor’s contest.
Stay tuned.
This poll asked likely voters for the coming election. That works out to be about 60% of about 40%-50% or about 25%-30% of the whole voting population.
True but if as you insist most Americans view Israel favorably and historically most if not all American governments have been lets say less favorable towards us then what benefit to us and what does it matter what the American people think. At best there is a disconnect between popular opinion and policies of their government? Even Daniel Greenfield in one of his posts last year concurred with my position that the American congress pays lip service to Israeli support because it doesn’t cost them anything. Some gain a few Jewish votes, some donations from Jews but when it comes to pressing the executive to conform they always wimp out like with the Law moving the embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv. They gave the president a waiver. Never seriously challenged massive arms sales to Israels enemies. All support 2 state solution, most support and pressure Israel in non enforcement our our weak anti missionary Laws. So they make hollow pro Israel sounding statements, it’s cost free.
I don’t always agree with Greenfield but that essay is worth another read. It was posted here on Israpundit about a year ago.
I’m not anti American I am anti American anti Israel policies and American pro enemies of Israel policies.
True but if as you insiost most Americans view Israel favorably and historically most if not all American governments
Talk about apples and oranges. Gil white is talking about the American Government. The poll is asking the American people.
We won’t know for sure if santions worked or not until they declare their project has ended and allow substantive inspection or they announce or detonate a nuke. Since the first part is unlikely then we will know that sanction haven’t worked when it’s too late once they have militarized a few nukes America won’t attack so the question posed is meaningless. It’s in the same inane concept as Bush and later Hillary declaring that if Iran attacks Israel with nukes America would respond in our defense. Very comforting if You are sitting here.
As I said above do the math and the results would not be far different than the CBS poll at least as it relates to Israel. Go to any holocaust Museum and read the warm statement and epitaphs that are displayed for all to see, Heartening, really touches the heart. I don’t care about being popular, that can change on a dime and it has historically. The French also loved us for 20 years then they didn’t. I am trying to be realistic among those I believe aren’t.
For your reference:
Is the US an ally of Israel?
A chronological look at the evidence
Historical and Investigative Research — by Francisco Gil-White
[ this piece updated regularly ]
http://www.hirhome.com/israel/hirally.htm
Yamit, why must you always put a negative spin on something positive?
Apples and apples, not Applels and oranges.
The CBS poll was asked I presume of the general population not likely voters for 2010 elections as the above poll was. Since it seems to be a given that the overwhelming majority of likely voters this Nov. will be conservatives/ Republicans and like minded independents. This polls results are heavily weighted to that groups views. Historically voter turnout for off year elections has been less than 40%.
The same questions were not presented in this poll and how anyone can reach the opposite conclusions based on this poll from the CBS one seems to elude me. Israels popularity among Americans was never an issue. Support up until taking military action on behalf of Israel was the issue and still is to my mind. What other values or expectations should we have from so called friends and some say ally?
Lastly no one defines what exactly is pro Israel. If Clinton and Bush are examples of what pro Israel means, then they have laundered the term to be void of meaning.