Sarah Palin is a uniter rather than a polarizer, except for the establishment

[Be sure to read the first two comments.]

If only Sarah Palin had run ...

By Timothy Stanley, Special to CNN

Editor’s note: Timothy Stanley is a historian at Oxford University and blogs for Britain’s Daily Telegraph.

[..]
It didn’t have to be this way. If Sarah Palin had entered the contest, I’d hypothesize two alternative realities. One, she’d have the nomination sewn up by now. Two, she’d be running even in the polls with the president.

What have proved to be problems for the top three candidates wouldn’t have been problems for Palin. For starters, she has none of Newt Gingrich’s intellectual hubris. There’s no way Palin would have promised to put a mine on the moon or suggest arresting judges who make decisions that are too liberal. Her conservatism is far more domestic and down-to-Earth.

She’s also more disciplined than Santorum. Although we’ll probably be talking about them into the next century, Palin’s only two serious public gaffes in 2008 happened when she was unable to name a newspaper and was stumped by the Bush doctrine, both slips a product of ignorance. Santorum, on the other hand, is guilty of knowing his own mind all too well, offering unwelcome opinions on everything from the evils of hard-core pornography to the racial politics of the Trayvon Martin tragedy.

Compare the response Palin gave to questions about her attitude toward evolution — “I think it should be taught as an accepted principle, and I say that also as the daughter of a schoolteacher” — with Santorum’s claim that Satan … has attacked America.

It’s Palin who seems to have a better sense of the limited role that faith should play in politics and a better idea of when to keep her mouth shut. Moreover, she would never tell a journalist that he was talking “bull***t,” even if she did congratulate Rick Santorum for doing so. Contrary to the media narrative, even at her most accident-prone, Palin has always been a classy, well-choreographed performer.

Lacking the foibles of Gingrich and Santorum, Palin would have been a far more effective anti-Romney candidate because her strengths accentuated Romney’s weaknesses. Romney is known as the Etch A Sketch candidate; Palin is aggressively authentic. Romney is seen by many as a moneyed elitist; Palin is the conservative class warrior, happy to slam the “crony capitalism” that benefits both big labor and big business. Romney’s limitations have been revealed, one by one, in the course of the primary campaign; Palin was well-vetted by the press in 2008 and has nothing left to say or do that would surprise us.

Love her or loathe her, we all know who Palin is. Her weaknesses, being old news, wouldn’t have dominated the primary narrative like Bain Capital or Seamus the dog, made famous by his terrifying ride atop Romney’s car. Palin would have spent the past three months attacking her opponents. Then she would have turned her guns on the president.

While it’s reasonable to speculate that Palin could have gathered a much stronger anti-Mitt coalition earlier — and broken out as the GOP front-runner sooner — it’s probably a bigger stretch to say that she would be running stronger against Obama right now.

The last national polling done on a hypothetical Palin candidacy was in September, and that showed the president beating her by double digits. Daily Kos did the math and gleefully calculated that Palin would win just seven states in November, and even Mississippi would be a tossup.

But those polls asked the public what they thought of a candidate who hadn’t declared, who wasn’t representing herself in the debates and who was still solely defined by the 2008 race. Guesstimating how well she would have done had she entered the 2012 contest is tough, but considering that at least some polls show both Romney and Santorum within a few points of Obama despite all their problems, it’s not unreasonable to presume that Palin would run just as well.

Subtract Santorum’s gaffes or Romney’s elitism, and she might even do a little better. Polls suggest that many voters agree with Romney’s approach to the economy but think he lacks empathy for the struggles facing the middle-class. Were she in the race, you can bet your bottom dollar that Palin wouldn’t score so low on compassion and authenticity.

Most important, Palin has the character and reputation necessary to break out of the Republican Party’s demographic prison. In matchups with Obama, Romney’s core vote is financially comfortable seniors. He pulls even among all men and folks aged 35-54.

The Republicans desperately need a candidate who can appeal to lower-income voters, who can rally men, who can gain women’s votes, who can bring out conservatives in large numbers and who can appeal to a younger demographic. All these things happened in the 2010 midterms, when the GOP made inroads into blue-collar households and middle-class suburbs on a policy platform virtually embodied by the Alaskan maverick.

The GOP needs a Tea Party candidate — either Sarah Palin or someone very like her. Alas, it’s going to have to wait until 2016 to get its rogue.

March 30, 2012 | 9 Comments »

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9 Comments / 9 Comments

  1. I have so much respect and admiration for Gov. Palin. She is a true conservative, outspoken, smart,truthful, beautiful and Patriotic. Not sure if our dumbed-down electorate can handle a woman of courage and smarts.

  2. Sarah Palin is fearless and I admire the way she has the Left desperately afraid of her.She turns Oblama’s words & deeds against him with a quip or a nuance and they can’t stand it!

  3. Oh, the “Sarah Palin is stupid” meme. One of the tired old myths the Left keeps pushing to discredit Governor Palin. Read what someone who actually worked with her on the campaign trail wrote:

    Sarah Palin’s A Brainiac http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2008/10/27/sarah-palins-a-brainiac.html

    Now by “smart,” I don’t refer to a person who is wily or calculating or nimble in the way of certain talented athletes who we admire but suspect don’t really have serious brains in their skulls. I mean, instead, a mind that is thoughtful, curious, with a discernable pattern of associative thinking and insight. Palin asks questions, and probes linkages and logic that bring to mind a quirky law professor I once had. Palin is more than a “quick study”; I’d heard rumors around the campaign of her photographic memory and, frankly, I watched it in action. She sees. She processes. She questions, and only then, she acts. What is often called her “confidence” is actually a rarity in national politics: I saw a woman who knows exactly who she is.

  6. What can one expect from commenters at CNN.

    Palin is the conservative class warrior, happy to slam the “crony capitalism” that benefits both big labor and big business.

    He mischaracterizes Palin on economic issues. She does not believe in the left’s class warfare. She believes in the capitalist system and her point is that we don’t truly have a free market economy, but too much government interference in the economy. That is what she means by “crony capitalism” which is not true capitalism. I think that a more appropriate term for this should be “crony socialism”. I wish Sarah would use that term instead.

  8. Another comment on C4P

    Gov. Palin was informed about a week before Oct 5, the GOP Establishment, i.e., John McCain, who would endorse RINO Romney, the Bushes, and various CC GOP politicians, and the extensive GOP get out the vote apparatus, and even TP in Name Only politicians, would not have her back. That even if she was the Nominee, they would not support her. She would be outflanked by her own Party.

    Fine. Gov. Palin took stock of her resources. She had been thru this before, and understood the foibles of treachery from political operatives. She had the resources of family and faith, not seen in a politician of this era. Having learned the lessons of betrayal by staff, she would have an incredible staff, and it would become even better. Unlike any other candidate she could get in last, with 99% name recognition, because she could. By staying out, her favorables would rise, as her opponents’ favorables decreased. And her war against the Soros Media would proceed, with the Undefeated, and her appearances on Fox and other networks, while not being outflanked by other GOP candidates. And by staying out, at least at first, the field would be whittled to her vs. RINO Romney. Gov. Palin had made the right decision to get Steven Bannon on her team, with all of his talents, and now combined with all of Breitbart’s staff and legacy.

    And Gov. Palin weighed in the balance the options, not only of being outflanked from enemies everywhere, but also of how things might proceed. Gov. Palin was not only familiar with the political campaign that had to be fought, but also with how a 3 way race would proceed. If she came in, no one else would be vetted. Palin did not fear being vetted herself, as she already had been vetted, in spades. Gov. Palin feared that no one else would be vetted.

    So, taking this all to account, it became “natural”, a word Mark Levin used, referring to her political prowess, in the Undefeated, for Gov. Palin to put on the cap of the Fox Political Commentator and student of Journalism. The order of business would become first to see her opponents vetted. That would become the priority. The requirements for seeing that happen would be that she not enter, because she had the political power and capital to do so, until her opponents were vetted. How that would be best accomplished, given the circumstances of being outflanked by her own Party, other GOP dwarf candidates, RINO Romney et al, the Soros Media, and Obama, provoked the Plan.

    And things are coming along according to plan. Rush Limaugh made a comment during the Christmas holiday season, “I guess that door is open”, referring to Gov. Palins entry into the race. When I heard this, my exclamation was, “That door can not now be shut.” “The Door is Open was the title for Gov. Palin’s CPAC address. When Gov. Palin declared the Open Door theme, she followed with, “So help me God.” And a promise, that a Conservative President would come again to CPAC next year.

  9. Comment on C4P

    It would be a mistake to think that CNN has suddenly turned fair and balanced. Timothy Stanley of CNN wrote this article probably because he sees that Palin is no longer a potential challenger to Obama so he can afford to be pseudo-objective. Even then he cited two supposed gaffes all the way back from 2008, that really were not gaffes at all, but actually lies and unadulterated spin perpetrated by the Leftist media. The “Bush Doctrine” can mean virtually any of Bush’s foreign policy positions. Palin was right to ask Gibson to elaborate. And the allegation that Palin could not name a newspaper is totally ridiculous and an outright lie. Palin gave an acceptable answer, but the Left spun a false narrative out of nothing. The people who perpetuate this lie will never quote her exact words or link to a video or recording, because a video will show that she gave an acceptable answer.

    Finally don’t think that the author, Stanley, was being magnanimous by conceding that Palin was ignorant, but otherwise OK. Stanley is shrewed enough to realize that ignorance in a Presidential candidate is a fatal flaw. Palin is of course the furthest thing from ignorance, and in reality one of the sharpest minds and best political strategist in a generation. The fact that the Left has to go all the way back to 2008, and even then trot out two false narratives goes to show that Palin has been close to perfect since then. In contrast , how many mistakes and bone-headed decisions have Obama and the GOP presidential candidates made in the same time period?

    .