The Day After PA “Independence”
by Lt. Col. (res.) Jonathan Dahoah-Halevi, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
[..]The future Palestinian state to which Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad aspire is prepared to absorb Palestinians, including refugees, within its boundaries, with the reservation that this will not be considered in any shape or form as a waiver of the right of return.
Once the Palestinian entity receives control over the international border crossings, irrespective of whether it is recognized as a state with full sovereignty or not, the gates will be opened for the transit of Palestinians, including those defined as refugees, to areas under Palestinian control. The Palestinian entity will not be able to prevent the entry/return of Palestinians to its borders, something that would be considered national treason and contravene Palestinian basic law and the Palestinian consensus.
All the Arab states where the Palestinians defined as refugees reside support the right of return unreservedly. Syria and Lebanon have traditionally adopted a policy that clarifies unambiguously that the refugee camps in their territory are only temporary and the refugees must return to Palestine when the conditions for this mature. It is plausible to assume that the two countries will have an interest in promoting the transfer of their Palestinian populations to the areas of “Palestine” both for internal demographic reasons and also to influence by this measure the creation of a demographic reversal in the areas of historic Palestine, to influence the Palestinian regime and make use of the Palestinians in the framework of the continued struggle against Israel.
The Jordanian regime detached itself from the West Bank in 1988 and provided Jordanian passports to the refugees, but announced that following the establishment of the Palestinian state, the refugees will have to decide whether they choose to be Jordanian citizens or return to Palestine. The massive eviction of a Palestinian population has occurred a few times over the last three decades. Kuwait expelled 400,000 Palestinians after the First Gulf War due to PLO support for Iraq,. Libya ordered the expulsion of 30,000 Palestinians (and later on agreed to accept them) following the establishment of the Palestinian Authority. Iraq expelled scores of thousands of Palestinians following the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003.
The refugee problem that was a bubbling lava for scores of years could erupt after an Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 lines and the establishment of a Palestinian state, and find expression in many areas: The infiltration of Palestinians into Israeli territory, and legal claims by refugees in Israel and in the international court in The Hague to provide the right of return, the restitution of property, and compensation. Focusing the Palestinian armed struggle on the right of return (a refugee intifada) could escalate the struggle in the international arena to coerce Israel into agreeing to the right of return (to avoid the boycott and anti-apartheid campaign).
The widespread phenomenon of Palestinians illegally residing in Israel and the infiltration of scores of thousands from African countries via the Egyptian border into Israeli territory exemplify the dimensions of the challenge that Israel will be forced to contend with in the form of a similar and much larger phenomenon in scope from the area of the West Bank. Likewise, Israel can expect to face challenges in the international and legal arenas, given the position of the human rights organizations in this context. Israel will find it difficult to prevent infiltration via its long border with the West Bank. Additionally, the expected economic distress in the Palestinian state, given the massive arrival of refugees, could invite international pressure upon Israel to absorb a larger number of refugees within its territory.
In the final analysis, the refugee problem is at the very heart of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute and is considered by the Palestinians as a trump card, via which they can weaken the State of Israel. After the establishment of a Palestinian state, the Palestinians will be able to overcome Israel via demography, transforming the country in the long term into an entity that will be submerged in a Palestinian state stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River. Since the Israeli consensus holds that the mass return of Palestinian refugees to Israel means national suicide, Israel will require robust international support in negotiations for a final status agreement, in order to reach an accord on the basis of defensible borders, and to find a permanent solution to the refugee problem based primarily on the Palestinian refugees receiving citizenship in their host countries or their absorption in a Palestinian state.
Bedrock, you are not proposing any real solution. You are essentially proposing the end of Israel as a country, and the deportation of all Jews; because that is the end of an Israel controlled by the Arabs. A quicker, less painfull solution which would achieve the same end would be for every Jew in Israel to simply shoot himself in the head. I don’t know who you think the “we” is that fights for this sort of thing.
Israel certainly must be a unitary state; but the Arabs must not be allowed to rule it. If Arabs are to remain in it as loyal citizens, they must vote in separate elections, for candidates of lesser stature, as they did under the Lebanon compromise. Arabs who don’t like that solution could simply be sent to Gaza.
BlandOatmeal: Sorry but that is what democracy is all about. If you don’t like it you might as well just give up the ship. What are our boys fighting but for the defence of democracy?
Either Sh-t or get off the pot. 2 state solution or a unitary state. I would rather join Ted and gang and opt for a unitary state.
The majority of Jews world wide support democracy. Remember the second world war-we all fought for the defence of freedom and democracy. And that was for everyone on the globe. Otherwise we could have surrendered to the Nazis.
Bedrock,
If the Pals are given voting rights, Israel will disappear as a Jewish state. Arabs comprise some 40% of Israel + Judea + Samaria. Since the Jewish vote is hopelessly fragmented, the Arabs can simply form a coalition with Labor and Meretz as minor partners, and take over the country. Once in control, they will ensure that the Right and Religious never come to power again. Jews will jump ship, every rat for himself, headed for LA and Miami Beach.
Laura: There will be no separate Palestinian State. The West bank. or whatever you wish to call it will become a province of Israel and be fully integrated into the sovereign state of Israel. Abbas will leave the scene and the formerly referred to as Palestinians will obtain all the privliges (voting) and incur the obligations of regular citizens.
That is called democracy and ISRAEL IS A DEMOCRATIC STATE AND THE ONLY DEMOCRATIC STATE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
Tell the international community to fuck off. If these countries are so concerned about economic distress on the part of the “palestinians” then let those countries take them in. Why are they Israel’s responsibility? If a state of “palestine” is created then that state is responsible for their own people. They are certainly not Israel’s responsibility.
So here we have the international community which has long demanded the creation of a “palestinian”, state. But if that state is not economically viable enough to sustain all the “refugees” which arrive, then the same international community will demand that Israel take responsibility for them. What audacity.