Outgunned and Outnumbered

Peloni: This is a devastating report on conditions in the Ukrainian ranks.  The facts surrounding Ukraine’s impossible venture in warring with its formidable neighbor has never really been in doubt, but the combination of Ukrainian and American censors have prevented such a frank discussion of the plight and disgust of Ukrainians for this war.  Russia has been poised to negotiate an end to this conflict going back 7 years before it began its invasion.  It is time for Ukraine to negotiate a settlement, preserving what remnant is left of its decimated populace and its shattered infrastructure in what is left of the now rumped state of Ukraine.  Only the malicious and unstable would advocate doing otherwise.

By Paul E Vallely MG, US Army (Ret) | September 10, 2024

CNN carried out a rare act of journalistic service with its detailed report about how “Outgunned and outnumbered, Ukraine’s military is struggling with low morale and desertion.” It candidly describes the numerous problems afflicting the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) at this pivotal moment in the conflict, as they continue to occupy part of Kursk but are still losing ground in Donbas. Their story introduces a battalion commander who lost most of the 800 men under his control.

This figure couldn’t take it anymore and thus transferred to a cushy military administrative job in Kyiv. When researching their report, he and the five others whom CNN spoke to informed them that “desertion and insubordination are becoming a widespread problem, especially among newly recruited soldiers.”

In the words of one commander, “Not all mobilized soldiers are leaving their positions, but the majority are…They either leave their positions, refuse to go into battle, or try to find a way to leave the army.”

The reader is then informed that these troops are forcibly conscripted, thus adding context to why they desert. Still, they also claimed that morale problems began to infect the armed forces’ ranks during the now-resolved impasse over more American aid to Ukraine. While that likely played a role, CNN conspicuously omits to mention last summer’s failed counteroffensive, which proved that Ukraine cannot reconquer its lost lands despite all the hype and the aid it received up until that point.

Moving along after having clarified the real reason behind the UAF’s plunging morale over the past year, drones have made the battlefield more unbearable than before, and the amount of time between rotations has grown since some troops can’t leave their positions without risking their lives. CNN then added that “In just the first four months of 2024, prosecutors launched criminal proceedings against almost 19,000 soldiers who either abandoned their posts or deserted”.

They also acknowledged that “It’s a staggering and – most likely – incomplete number. Several commanders told CNN that many officers would not report desertion and unauthorized absences, hoping to convince troops to return voluntarily without facing punishment. This approach became so common that Ukraine changed the law to decriminalize desertion and absence without leave if committed for the first time.”

The impending Battle of Pokrovsk, which could be a game-changer for Russia on the Donbas front, risks turning into a total disaster for the UAF since “some commanders estimate there are 10 Russian soldiers to each Ukrainian.” Just as alarming is the claim from one officer that “There have even been cases of troops not disclosing the full battlefield picture to other units out of fear it would make them look bad.” Communication problems are also reportedly rife among Kyiv’s varied units there too.

The Kursk front isn’t as bad, but it might not have served its political purpose of boosting morale among the UAF, unlike what Zelensky claimed. CNN quoted some sappers unsure of the strategy involved, questioning why they were redeployed from defending Pokrovsk to invade Russia when the Donbas front was experiencing such difficulties as was already reported. The piece then ends with a psychological support expert declaring that he’s no longer going to be emotionally attached to anyone.

Reflecting on CNN’s surprisingly critical report, it’s clear that the UAF is during converging crises caused by the failed counteroffensive, the forcible conscription policy, and Zelensky’s Kursk blunder, which are leading to more desertions, defeats, and ultimately more desperation. In such circumstances, Ukraine can either stay the course by remaining in Kursk at the expense of losing more ground in Donbas, withdraw from Kursk to help hold Donbas or asymmetrically escalate.

The first two scenarios are self-explanatory, while the last could concern expanding the conflict into other Russian regions, Belarus, and Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region, seriously damaging Russian nuclear power plants out of desperation to provoke a nuclear response, and assassinating top Russians. There are only a few months left before the winter impedes combat operations on both sides, after which the status quo will persist until spring when one or both sides might go on the offensive.

This timeline adds urgency to the impending Battle of Pokrovsk, which Russia wants to win as soon as possible to push through the fields beyond, capture more territory, threaten the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration from the south, and possibly prepare to make a move on Zaporizhzhia city from the northeast. If Ukraine can hold out into next year, then it could have more time to build more defenses beyond Pokrovsk, thus reducing the pace of Russia’s advance if it comes out on top there.

Even if Ukraine holds on for at least several months or perhaps as long as half a year longer there, the problems touched upon in CNN’s piece will likely only exacerbate, seeing as how more forcibly conscripted troops will be thrown into what might by then become the next infamous meat grinder. Morale will probably continue plummeting while defections could spike, both of which could combine to cripple the UAF and create an opening for Russia to exploit in Pokrovsk or elsewhere along the front.

The ideal solution for Kyiv would be to reach a ceasefire for facilitating its voluntary withdrawal from part of Donbas (ex, Pokrovsk’s surroundings) in parallel with pulling out of Kursk, which are terms that Russia might entertain since they’d advance some of its political and military goals. It’s better for Ukraine, from the perspective of its regime’s interests, to have an orderly withdrawal than a chaotic one if Russia achieves a breakthrough. Still, Zelensky and his ilk aren’t known for their rational decisions.

Nevertheless, those like India and Hungary who want to help politically resolve this conflict could propose something of the sort, perhaps also suggesting the revival of last month’s reported Qatari-mediated partial ceasefire proposal for eschewing attacks against the other’s energy infrastructure. Zelensky is unlikely to agree, especially since he’s under the influence of uber-hawk Yermak. However, it would still be best to informally circulate some variant of the proposal above sooner rather than later.

Regardless of well-intentioned third parties’ proposals, the conflict appears poised to continue raging into the next year, absent a complete military and political breakdown in Ukraine. Neither of these scenarios can be ruled out, though, considering how bad everything has become, per CNN’s latest report. Ukraine and its Anglo-American “deep state” allies could also stage a major provocation aimed at desperately “escalating to de-escalate” on more of their terms, so observers shouldn’t rule that scenario out either.[1]

Distributed by the Stand Up America US Foundation

Contact: MG Vallely: suaus1961@gmail.com

www.standupamericaus.org

Extract from a new book by MG Vallely: “Betrayal and Treason in America.”

[1] ZeroHedge, Tyler Durden 9.10.2024