The nightmarish prospect of a third election – and worse, the campaign for the third election, will become a reality for Israelis in the next few months, culminating at the ballot boxes on March 2nd. There are several ways in which the outcome could be disastrous, and one way in which it could present a path forward out of the political swamp into which Israel has descended in the past few years, the almost-gridlock that has kept us from solving many long-standing problems.
I have to begin by talking about Binyamin Netanyahu. In my opinion, he is one of Israel’s greatest Prime Ministers, supremely competent and qualified to continue in his job – but mortally wounded, taken down by enemies who exploited his tragic flaws (we all have them) and a broken constitutional structure which does not properly provide for the separation of powers with appropriate checks and balances.
What happened to Netanyahu, destroyed by a multi-year effort to stick criminal charges to him (and to his wife, whose own personal weaknesses didn’t help), an interminable investigation accompanied by a daily barrage of leaks and innuendos gleefully reported in an almost uniformly hostile media, must never be allowed to happen again.
The fact that Netanyahu managed to accomplish anything at all in his last three years as PM – and actually he accomplished quite a lot – despite the harassment tells much about his competence. But this is no way to run a country. And no less important, the degree to which the police and state prosecutor’s office have been dragged into politics sets a dangerous precedent.
I don’t want to discuss the charges against him in detail. Some of them appear justified, although perhaps not rising to what would be called “impeachable offenses” in America; others are based on interpretations of the law that may be strained or novel. Some things were done to witnesses to force them to testify against him that were clearly improper, even criminal themselves. But whatever happens – if he goes to trial and is convicted or exonerated, or if he receives a pardon from the Knesset – he is finished in politics.
I don’t know if he will accept this, or if he will fight to the death. Probably the latter, which will add to the damage that has already been done to the country. I would like to see him get a deal which would allow him to step down in return for a pardon. But Bibi is a tragic hero, and that’s not what tragic heroes do.
Netanyahu’s Likud party will now see a primary election, in which his main opponent is Gideon Sa’ar. It’s too early to tell, but I am hoping that Sa’ar will defeat Netanyahu for the leadership of the party and the candidacy for Prime Minister. I know Bibi has been treated unjustly, and it hurts me to take a stand against him. It is to some extent a betrayal. But the nation is more important than he is.
I mentioned possible outcomes. The best one is that Gideon Sa’ar defeats Netanyahu in the primary, and gets enough seats on March 2 to form a stable government. Sa’ar is ideologically right-wing, and has promised that as PM he would extend Israeli law to the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, and to the Jordan Valley (the Left in Israel and America will say that he wants to “annex the West Bank”, but that is wrong).
He would also reform the judicial system in such a way as to improve the balance of powers between the Supreme Court, the Prime Minister, and the Knesset; and he would split up the job of the Legal Advisor to the Government, which now encompasses the functions of Attorney General, Chief Prosecutor, and others. One of the objectives of this reform would be to prevent abuses such as have occurred in the prosecution of Netanyahu.
But there’s more at stake than protecting the PM. The combination of the Supreme Court and the Legal Advisor have arrogated to themselves far too much power. Both are essentially appointed by the legal establishment (the PM appoints the Legal Advisor, but from a short list provided by the Bar Association), and they have stymied important initiatives of the Knesset and the government, like the arrangements to develop Israel’s natural gas reserves and attempts to deport illegal migrants.
If the opposition Blue and White Party were to form the government, that would count as a bad outcome. Blue and White’s leaders are four politicians who have no unifying ideology except a desire to replace Netanyahu. They range from the right-wing Moshe Ya’alon to the left-leaning Yair Lapid. They dislike each other, and their party has already had to work very hard to hide the sharp disagreements between them. If they did succeed in forming a government, it would either have to depend on the support of the Arab parties – leaving them open to blackmail on security issues – or somehow get the “ultra-Orthodox” Haredi parties to sit with Yair Lapid, or Avigdor Lieberman, or the extreme leftists. None of this is a recipe for stability.
A not-as-bad-but-still-not-good outcome would be if Netanyahu succeeded to hold onto the leadership of his party and managed to form a government. It would probably have a very small majority in the Knesset, making it unstable, and Netanyahu would remain preoccupied with getting a pardon from the Knesset above all. He would not be able to reform a judicial system that was prosecuting him.
Davka [just because of this], Netanyahu must be replaced. Only a new right-wing Prime Minister who is not tangled up in the legal system can turn that system upside down, as needs to be done.
Israel needs a government that can act confidently and with one voice to take advantage of the opportunities provided by a pro-Israel administration in the US, something which will not continue forever (it may need to deal with an anti-Israel one, which is a distinct possibility judging by the contenders for the Democratic nomination).
Many people have said that a third election would be no more decisive than the first two, and that the instability will just continue. But if Likud members will put their (understandable) personal loyalty to Netanyahu aside and see what is actually at stake here, it might finally break us out of the paralysis that his gripped the country in recent years.
Former PM Ehud Olmert calls the Netanyahus a ‘crime family’
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF DECEMBER 18, 2019 12:22
https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Former-PM-Ehud-Olmert-calls-the-Netanyahus-a-crime-family-611291
Latest poll shows that if Saar runs as #1 on Likud List the right will get 60 seats.
The trend is steady upwards in the polls for the right if Saar leads. The right pulls a few seats from the center with Saar as the #1 (Blue/White loses 4 seats). This could lead to a right dominated coalition.
https://knessetjeremy.com/category/knesset/polls/
Also interesting is the fact that a “final” order for his indictment has been handed down by Mendelblatt, Bibi’s support among all poll responders is still at about where it was in the September election. The number of voters who have withdrawn their support for Bibi is remarkably small–only about 5% total since the “original” April election. Enough to defeat Bibi’s reelection bid, yes, bit still a remarkably small loss of support. Rightist voters are increasingly disillusioned with the courts and prosecutors, and don’t believe their accusations against rightist politicians are fair or true.
@ Bear Klein: I agree concerning the outcome of the primary and the general election.
This is the results latest poll, as reported by Arutz Sheva:
The fact is, however, that Bibi is genuinely popular among Likud voters. This support is not the result of tricks or organizational maneuvers to exclude voters from the primary.
The Likud as an institution is making it very hard for Saar to have a fair chance to win the Primary.
They are disposing of New Likud Members who might be more likely to vote for Saar. The Likud Court says that the MKs need a new primary for the next election (this allows for payback for anyone supporting Saar). This is subject to an appeal in Likud Court.
So it is very likely that Netenyahu will win again and the Likud will likely be in the opposition with Gantz as Prime Minister after the General Election.
Like Will Kane in High Noon, the Israelis must support Bibi whole-heartedly to take their country back from the lawyers and judges… or they never will. The belief that if Netanyahu is not around when the many disasters bearing down on Israel arrive, that all will unite with one voice is not believable. Bibi is a fighter and can do no other than fight the forces wishing to destroy Israel. The natural maddening divisiveness of Jews will not be cured by urging their Prime Minister to leave the scene.
Goldi Said:
This is the ONLY Clear-Eyed Assessment, regarding our current political stalemate, to date!
The trouble is that the opposition, and the courts are not only after Bibi, and are likely going to cook up something against Sa’ar as well. Therefore, if Bibi buckles, the witchhunt will never eend.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
The trains will run on time and all we have to give up is Judea, Samaria and democracy.
First, Prime Ministers as excellent as Netanyahu are not so abundant in Israel’s history (perfect Prime Ministers don’t exist). The difference between good and excellent is quite important in this delicate point of Israel’s existence. And unfortunately Israel has had Prime Ministers who fell short of good.
Second, the assumption that the Israeli judiciary, police, state prosecutor’s office and media will be appeased with Netanyahu out of office is naive. They desire power to help determine policy by diminishing the power of voters. This is a structural change in how Israel has been governed. If the Israeli Deep State can eliminate a Prime Minister as popular and competent as Netanyahu, potentially excellent Prime Ministers either won’t want to run or won’t want to be “too excellent”. And the backers of potentially excellent Prime Ministers will take the power of the Israeli Deep State into their calculations.
First, Prime Ministers as excellent as Netanyahu are not so abundant in Israel’s history (perfect Prime Ministers don’t exist). The difference between good and excellent is quite important in this delicate point of Israel’s existence. And unfortunately Israel has had Prime Ministers who fell short of good.
Second, the assumption that the Israeli judiciary, police, state prosecutor’s office and media will be appeased with Netanyahu out of office is naive. They desire power to help determine policy by diminishing the power of voters. This is a structural change in how Israel has been governed. If the Israeli Deep State can eliminate a Prime Minister as popular and competent as Netanyahu, potentially excellent Prime Ministers either won’t want to run or won’t want to be “too excellent”. And the backers of potential excellent Prime Ministers will take the power of the Israeli Deep State into their calculations.
Probably the least bad option for Israel, although still a very bad one, will be for Gantz, the leftists and the anti-Zionists and/or Leiberman to win a clear majority and form a government. Based on past statesman of his “peace” policies that he and his colleagues have made at various times and places, his secretivenss and evasiveness about his views, his very frequent meetings with the anti-Zionist party leaders, and other “evidence” that I have been able to piece together, he will probably be a terrible prime minister. His lack of political experience and his inability to speak English will make him even worse. However, if the Knesset is unable to form a government soon, the IDF will have no money to defend the country, the police will have no money to control ordinary street crime or much the less terrorism, Israel’s hospitals will have to close, doctors and nurses will be unable to practice, there will be no medical insurance, patieents in nursing homes will be without care, food, lelectricity or heat, pensioners will not receive their pensions, be denied their retirement pensions, people will not receive their housing and child-support allowances, work on the roads and railroads will come to a halt, etc. And the current polls would seem to indicate that only a left-Arab coalition, or maybe a left-Leiberman coalition (less bad) led by Blue-White and Gantz, has a realistic chance to form a government. A bad government will be the lesser evil for Israel than no government at all, which would result in Israel’s total collapse.
I concur with most of this article and strongly agree with the following:
Most of Vic’s column makes excellent sense. There are a few problems with it.
There is no guarantee that the A-G and the “Supremes” won’t target Sa’ar or whoever replaces Bibi for Likud leader. Probably they will begin feverishly to look into his (Sa’ars) past to see if there is anything they can “get him” on. He was out of government for five years. Was he in private business during those five years? If so, Mandelblit and the “Supremes” can cook up some kind of phoney charge that hie did something corrupt or improper in busines and begin an “investigation” of him.
I hope Vic is right that Sa’ar is determined to reform the legal system. But I haven’t read that elsewhere.
In any case, it looks like Bibi, for better or for worse, will win the December 26 primary. At any rate, that’s what the pundits are saying. If Bibi is forced to resign by the court, or if his fellow Likud leaders pressure him to resign, he will probably still have enough clout in his own party to “appoint” a successor other than Sa’ar, whom he dislikes on personal, not policy, grounds. For example, he might persuade the Likud Central Committee to “elect” Katz, or Edelstein, or Yariv Levin to replace him as party leader, sometime after he wins the primary, or possibly after the March 2 election. The way things look now, the new Likud leader will probably be leader of the opposition, not Prime Minister or part of a coalition government.