After the president tasked Netanyahu with forming a government, another election seems inescapable, but it’s hard to imagine the prime minister giving up chance to form government that easily
Olivier Fitoussi
A day after President Reuven Rivlin tasked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with forming a new government, the solution to assembling it does not appear to be on the horizon. Likud’s expected victory never came, and Wednesday night’s announcements from the President’s Residence looked like an extra step on the way to a third round of elections.
Is there a way to prevent going to the polls again? Haaretz maps out the possible scenarios for the coming month.
According to the Basic Law on the Government, the first Knesset member to be tasked with forming a new government has 28 days to do so, after which they can request an extension of up to 14 more days. At any time during this period, the lawmaker can inform the president that they are unable to form a government, and let him give the mandate to someone else.
On Wednesday evening, Netanyahu called a number of ministers and told them – so that it would be leaked to the press – that unless there is a breakthrough with Kahol Lavan, he will inform Rivlin within a week that he is unable to carry out the task.
The advantage of this scenario is that it would pressure Kahol Lavan to be more flexible from the get-go and begin progressing toward a unity government. But it would usher in a period of uncertainty, during which Netanyahu could give up on forming a government.
Netanyahu is cautious about his political moves. It is hard to see how he would give up the chance to form a government so easily, whether it happens within a week or in 42 days.
Kahol Lavan compromises and joins a Netanyahu government
Over the past two days, Benny Gantz has seriously considered reneging on his campaign promises and joining a government with Netanyahu at the helm until the premier’s indictment is filed, if it is filed.
Yair Lapid is vehemently opposed to this option and has managed to convince Gabi Ashkenazi as well. Lapid says that Netanyahu cannot be trusted and that any compromise with him would mean the electoral destruction of Kahol Lavan. Lapid can be expected to stick to his guns when it comes to his refusal to serve under Netanyahu.
Nonetheless, there is still a small possibility that Gantz will change his mind, that there is a more conciliatory faction within Kahol Lavan that wants to make a deal and set to work rather than being dragged into another election campaign.
Lieberman changes his mind and joins a Netanyahu government
If Avigdor Lieberman changes his mind and decides to join the right-wing bloc, Netanyahu can establish a government within the hour. As of right now, the chance of this happening is almost zero.
Lieberman’s confidants say he is totally committed to removing Netanyahu from power. His reasons may be unknown, but his hatred is burning. Lieberman is aligned with Lapid, who holds a similar position to that of Lieberman within Kahol Lavan: No to Netanyahu and no to the ultra-Orthodox parties.
Amir Peretz joins a Netanyahu government
Over the past day, people close to Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz – Histadrut labor federation chairman Arnon Ben David and Pini Kabalo, the head of the Labor faction in the Histadrut – posted on social media that Peretz must begin negotiations with Netanyahu. On his part, Peretz continues to tweet against the idea, and is standing his ground on not joining a Netanyahu government.
Either way, the possibility of this happening seems unrealistic. Even if Peretz tries to join the government, Labor MKs Merav Michaeli and Omer Bar-Lev would not support it, and there still would not be enough votes for Netanyahu to form a coalition.
Likud ousts Netanyahu
Kahol Lavan hopes that because another round of elections would only hurt Likud, party officials would initiate primaries with the goal of unseating Netanyahu. This scenario would only play out if the party’s back was against the wall, making it harder to evaluate the chances of it happening.
The prime minister’s position in his party is, in the meantime, unyielding. And even if he is challenged in another primary, chances are he would easily beat any other candidate.
Netanyahu gives in and lets Gantz lead the rotation
The likelihood of this happening is scant. Netanyahu’s calculations are based on the idea that so long as he occupies the prime minister’s seat, it is harder for Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit to put him on trial. Netanyahu cannot give in, and certainly not right before Mendelblit decides whether or not to indict him.
@ Bear Klein:
100% RIGHT….!! Those guys were arrsted before…and released…Bad mistake….
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Why should anyone who deliberately killed that 17 year old child get support, or anything. To get information from him concerning his terrorist friends and associates, I’d have willingly hung him up by the thumbs, until the were pulled off, then tortured him in any way needed, to get the information. These “people”-so-called- are not even human, and deserve no treatment except the worst.
MY objection to the Shabak, is when they do the same thing to young, mostly innocent, Jews, who, at their VERY worst, are like new-botn lambs compared to any average Arab terrorist murderers.
Interesting the special methods were according to the article written used after it was found that the A source familiar with the details said that the agency had received permission from a legal source to use exceptional methods in the interrogation of Samar Mina Salim Arabid after it received new information that he had an explosive device in his possession.
Some Westerner’s have a hard time understanding that Israel’s war is very real and it needs to fight it like a war and not like some TV episode of a COP show. Israel is safer today because of the methods the Shin Bet (Shabak) used and uses when needed to save lives.
Three arrested were also involved in the planning of other attacks, including shootings and kidnappings. In addition, during the interrogation, the security services uncovered another explosive device belonging to the terror cell.
Israel is fighting terrorists and needs to do what it needs to win the war with them.
The special method’s are used to prevent other deaths by the terror cell if nothing else can work. By the way I would be careful to believe what you read about anything claimed to have occurred.
Israel’s special methods are more psychological than physical torture. They work normally.
If one forgot this terror cell layed an improvised explosive which wounded a father, son and killed the daughter. They detonated this remotely.
They were a dangerous and organized terror cell. Catching them and finding out more information about who was out there still in their organization was very important
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
My heart doesn’t bleed for him. He forfeited all his rights by murdering this girl.
The Shabak has tortured a Palestinian terror suspect until he is in critical condition, after getting an OK from the A-G to use “special methods” on him to obtain information. That should be enough in a supposed “rule of law” country to fire the AG and arrest several members of the Shabak. Also, reorganize the whole agency under a new director. But this is Israel, and nothing will be done.hu
2019 Elections
Terror at the Dolev spring
Iranian attempted drone attack
IsraelReport: Terrorist who killed Rina Shnerb in critical condition
“Report: Terrorist who killed Rina Shnerb in critical condition
Samar Arabid, lead terrorist in charge of terror attack which killed Rina Shnerb, hospitalized in critical condition after interrogation.
Arutz Sheva Staff, 29/09/19 00:02
Share
IDF soldiers apprehending the murderers of Rina Shnerb
IDF soldiers apprehending the murderers of Rina ShnerbIDF spokesperson
The head of the terror cell which killed 17-year-old Rina Shnerb last month has been hospitalized in critical condition following the Shabak (Israel Security Agency) interrogation, Haaretz reported.
A source familiar with the details said that the agency had received permission from a legal source to use exceptional methods in the interrogation of Samar Mina Salim Arabid after it received new information that he had an explosive device in his possession.
During that interrogation, he was beaten and later transferred to Jerusalem’s Hadassah Ein Kerem Hospital.
The Shabak said that during his interrogation, the terrorist who headed the cell which carried out the Dolev Spring terror attack said he did not feel well.
In accordance with protocol, the terrorist was transferred for medical examinations and brought to a hospital for treatment.
“The interrogation of the terror infrastructure is still ongoing, and we cannot provide additional details,” the Shabak said.
Earlier on Saturday evening, the Shabak released the names of the terrorists responsible for the Dolev Spring terror attack, which left Rina dead and injured her father and brother.
The three terrorists are all members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and residents of the Ramallah area, and all had been arrested in the past.”
Today’s Jerusalem Post says the Attorney General is preparing to indict Bibi as early as late October or early November. Plainly he has no intention of letting Bibi stay on as Prime Minister beyond the 28 days Gantz has to form a government. this is how Mandelblit reacted to Bibi’s decision to give up the mandate for forming a new government.
Israel is in for some very, very hard times over the next year as Hibollah, Hamas, Assad and Iran take advantage of a colloborationist, incompetent administration to launch massive attacks on Israel.
@ Edgar G.: Your right, Edgar, he shouldn’t have yielded power so quickly and easily to untested, inexperienced men with an appeasement-oriented agenda. But apparerently that is what he is doing. I have always believed that Bibi’s real shortcoming is that he has always been too conciliatory, too willing to compromise and go along with what other politicians at home and abroad want.
From today’s Arutz Sheva. Clear evidence that Bibi doesn’t expect to remain in office for long and is not inclined even to try. He is not the raging egomaniac or tyrant that his enemies have painted him as. Confronted with the reality of a Prime Minister who respects the verdict of th electorate, his enemies will be thrown off balance.
Most anti-Bibiites assume that he will not agree voluntarily to leave office unless parliament passes an a law granting him immunity as long as he stays in office. I don’t think Bibi is much concerned at this point to have such a law passed. He knows that he is not very likely to remain in office following the most recent election, in which case an immunity law would do him no good. In addition, according to press leaks, the Supreme Court has assured representatives of Blue-White that they would overrule any such law. Such ex parte promises to one side in a dispute that has not even come before the court is to say the least improper. But the Israeli “Supremes” have no concern with judicial ethics or anything else that might come between them and their political agenda. Actually, Israeli law already prohibits the courts from prosecuting a sitting member of the Knesset, unless Parliament lifts his/her immunity. But the Supremes have already thrown out this law, at least as it applies to Bibi, at an earlier stage of his case.
The one thing Bibi could do to protect himself is to persuade his own party, and whoever succeeds him as Likud leader, to press for legislation that would prohibit the Supreme Court from overruling laws passed by the Knesset or making decisions not based on Israeli law, but only on what the justices consider “reasonable.” Ever since the incumbancy of Aharon Barak as Chief Justice,The courts have been making rulings contrary to Israeli law or with no basis in law solely on this subjective “reasonableness” standard, which amounts to giving themselves arbitrary and absolute power. However, Bibi has never advocated limiting the powers of the courts, and he is unlikely to do so now. Contrary to the way he has been portrayed by his enemies, he is a “team player” who is disinclined to challenge established authority even when it works against him.
Both parties will have to deal with the likely end of Bibi’s Prime Ministership in the very near future. Ironically, that may create nearly as many problems for Blue-White as it does for Likud. Without Bibi to kick around anymore, the Blue-White coalition may break up.
Despite all the pressure from the president and various sectors of public opinion for a Blue-White coalition government, such a government is unlikely for a number of reasons.
The main one is that the policy differences between the two parties, centering on such issues as a two state solution, negotiations with the PLO and Hamas aimed at achieving it, Israeli sovereignty over parts or all of Judea-Samaria, incentived Arab immigration, the fate the of 85,000 or so Israeli Jews living in central Judea-Samaria and future Jewish settlement in this area, Israeli withdrawal from this central mountainous region of Judea Samaria, which extends to within a few miles or less from Israel’s main population centers, the religious status quo, and above all the role of the pro-PLO and pro-Hamas Arab parties in Israel’s government, will make it extremely difficult for these two parties to work together in a coalition government..
The coalition parters of both parties would object strenuously to being cut out of such a government. Neither party is likely to risk alienating its existing coalition partners, since that would not be in their interest.
If as is very likely, Blue-White create for a viable coalition with support of the leftist parties, Leiberman’s group, and the Arab parties, they will have no incentive to form a coalition government with the Likud, with whose policies they disagree.
Likud, for its part, cannot at this stage afford to rule out the possibility that they may be able to form a government which they lead if Gantz and Lapid fail to form a government. But in order to do that, they will need their existing coalition partners. That Likud will lead the next government is unlikely, but the party’s leaders, not only Bibi but the others, are not going to close the door to this possibility until it is certain that Blue-White has formed a government.
While a coalition between the haredi parties and Blue-White is theoretically possible, I think it is unlikely, because the haredi parties and the Lapid part of the Blue-White coalition are unlikely to be able to come to an agreement.
The supporters, voters and key supporters of both parties are likely to object to their working together because of their serious policy differences.
To summarize, serious policy differences on the issues of the Israeli-Palestinian relationship and the state-religion status quo make it highly unlikely that a coalition government can be formed that crosses the left-right divide.
If Gantz proves unable to form a coalition, there is a slight chance that “defectors” from Blue-White might agree to form a coalition led by Likud. Blue-White is composed of newly formed parties. Some members of the Gantz wing once belonged to Likud. If no Blue-White-led coalition can be formed, then it is possible that some of the more conservative MKs in the coalition might make their peace with Likud and join a Likud-led government.
What really unites the blue-White coalition is personal hostility to Bibi and a desire to prevent him from continuing to serve as Prime minister. But he is sending out signals that he is preparing to resign in any case in order to have time to prepare his defense against the criminal charges against him. At this point, he may decide that it is in his best interest to at least temporarily withdraw from the government in order to wage his court battles, hoping to return to politics, perhaps, if he is acquitted. But if their goal of ousting Bibi is achieved with his acquiescence, it may threaten the coalition’s unity. If the glue that has stuck the Blue-White coalition together dissolves, the coalition may break up.
If Gantz and Lapid are unable to bridge the differences between the parties they will need to form a government, (although I think they will probably succeed), then a new election will become another possible outcome, however much the the public will resent it. Turnout would probably be very low. Those sectors of the voting population that are most patient and persistent, and most determined to get their way, will win this third election if it happens. At this point it is impossible to know which political bloc would benefit from such an election.
His reason for not yielding on “who goes first”… could easily be that he is in the middle of important negotiations with a variety of international entities, and wants to complete them.
To hand over complicated political affairs to Klutzim like Gantz &Co. to gambol around like lambs at springtime, would be sheer madness, as well as being destructive in upsetting what may be projects that Netanyahu has been working on for years.
The first 61 wearing pointy hats and with red noses who can crowd into a Smart Car together should be the government.