Syrian opposition groups, already planning for the day after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad either steps down or is pushed out, met in London on Saturday and agreed that a post-Assad Syria would be both democratic and secular, according to Arab media.
Details of the agreement, seen by Reuters, point to the group’s opposition to Western military intervention in Syria, but not that of Arab military intervention. According to the document, the leading groups “reject any military intervention that harms the sovereignty or stability of the country, though Arab intervention is not considered foreign.”
Assad’s forces have been launching a vicious crackdown against pro-democracy forces, who have been calling for Assad’s exit since March. The U.N. estimates that more than 5,000 civilians have been killed since the protests began, and videos and eyewitness reports point to the use of snipers, tanks and helicopter gunships against protesters. The violence is threatening to spiral into a full-on civil war, with numbers of former soldiers defecting from their ranks and joining the opposition.
Syria recently agreed to allow a team of monitors from the Arab League into the embattled country, but their initial assessment — that the hurriedly-swept streets of some of the most conflict-heavy areas pose little threat and prove no violence against civilians has occurred — has led to doubts about the observers’ commitment to truly investigate. Opposition groups are trying to create a coherent movement to boost their credibility in the eyes of other nations who are fearful of the chaos that would ensue if Assad was forced out.
The leading opposition group in exile, the Syrian National Council, signed the deal on Friday with the largely Syrian-based National Coordination Committee, according to Moulhem Droubi, a top SNC member from Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood.
The document says the deal will be presented to other opposition groups at a conference next month.
The parties outlined a one-year transitional period, which could be renewed once if necessary. During that period, the agreement states, Syria would adopt a new constitution “that ensures a parliamentary system for a democratic, pluralistic civil state.” The document also stresses that religious freedom will be guaranteed by the new constitution and condemns any signs of sectarianism or “sectarian militarization.”
Global concern over the situation in Syria continued to rise over the weekend. Martin Nesirky, spokesman for the U.N. secretary-general, called on Assad to cooperate with the Arab League monitors and grant them access to every flashpoint of violence in the country. “The Arab League must take all steps possible to ensure that its observer mission will be able to fulfil its mandate in accordance with international human rights standards,” Nesirky said. He added that the U.N. was willing to train the observers in human rights monitoring.
The Arab League plan calls for a verifiable withdrawal of troops and heavy weaponry from towns and cities. But activists say they have little faith that the Arab League mission can help to stem the violence against them.
Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby said at the outset of the mission that it should take only a week to establish if Assad was keeping his promises to stem the violence and implement a peace plan, but the mission is still short of its planned strength of 150 members, who must observe events in dozens of towns and cities across the country of 23 million people. The delegation also relies on state security escorts, whom some protesters say have prevented access to the demonstrators.
“We don’t know what to do. But we know Assad and his regime won’t give us what we want,” said opposition activist Ziad in Douma, a suburb of Damascus that has seen large-scale protests. “So why should we wait for them to help us? Assad wants us to raise our weapons and kill each other and he is pushing us towards that every day. We wanted the monitors to help us find a solution, but it won’t happen.”
SNC head Burhan Ghalioun said on Friday that if the government did not implement the peace plan, “there is no other solution except going to the Security Council – and I think we are walking toward the Security Council.”
A spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said the EU calls on Assad to comply with the Arab League’s plan and to immediately stop the violence in the country, free prisoners and withdraw military forces from the cities.
The British foreign office also reacted to the latest violent incidents in Syria and said in a statement that the Syrian government must fulfill its obligations to the Arab League.
Russia’s foreign ministry claimed that the situation in the city of Homs – a recent flashpoint of violence where protesters are reportedly being killed on a daily basis by government troops – is “encouraging, with hardly any incidents of violence being documented.”
Assad himself claims that Islamist militants steered from abroad are the source of unrest and have killed 2,000 of his forces.
The killing continues
Meanwhile, the killing of protesters continued over the weekend, according to Arab media reports, with more than 35 civilians reportedly murdered during demonstrations. The reports claimed that some of the deaths occurred in the southern city of Daraa while Arab League monitors were conducting a tour of the city.
Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets across Syria on Friday, aiming to demonstrate the strength of their movement to Arab League monitors checking whether Assad is implementing a pledge to halt his armed crackdown on the unrest.
The commander of the Free Syrian Army told Reuters on Friday he had ordered his fighters to stop attacks while the FSA tried to arrange a meeting with the monitors. But in a newspaper interview published on Saturday he said if the Arab mission was “not professional,” the FSA would “resume our defense operations.”
The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said security forces had shot dead 27 people on Friday in areas where there were no observers, adding to the toll of a conflict that the U.N. says has killed more than 5,000 people, most of them unarmed civilians. The Observatory said four civilians were shot dead on Saturday, three by snipers. The bodies of three detainees were also returned home, and a woman died of gunshot wounds, it said.
In response to media reports of the killings, state news agency SANA reported at length on “massive demonstrations” throughout Syria on Friday in support of Assad, and against “the plot which Syria is exposed to.” It said demonstrators had denounced “the pressure and biased campaigns targeting Syria’s security and stability” and the “lies and fabrications of the misleading media channels” that had caused Syrian blood to be shed.
Islamic Jihad also targeted
Tensions between the Syrian government and the Islamic Jihad organization also rose on Friday as government forces raided the Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp near Damascus and arrested Ibrahim Shkaki, 20, son of the organization’s founder Fathi Shkaki, who reportedly was assassinated by the Mossad in Malta in 1995.
Shkaki’s relatives said he was arrested for shooting at government troops, after the troops shot at protesters during a demonstration. One relative said “The good relationship between the government in Damascus and the resistance organizations no longer exists.”
Sometimes I wonder whether Israeli Jews are at all interested in what is going on all around them. There seems to be tons of talk here about Ron Paul, about Freemasons, you name it. Meanwhile,
(1) a hot war has very much broken out in Syria, with defecting units of the 38th Mechanized Division attacking Assad’s forces. The gunfire can be heard in Israel (but not, of course, on Israpundit). Fighting is also intensifying in the north, where opposition forces overran two checkpoints, and where an Israeli drone hovered for four hours over an ex-Al Qaeda camp, sponsored by Qatar, on Turkish soil opposite Syria.
(2) Iran has said it will fire on US vessels in the Persian Gulf without warning. If ever there was a cassus belli, I would say that is it.
(3) Turkey, which hosts over 100 tactical nuclear warheads, 90 of them under its direct control, as well as an American missile defense battery and a large NATO airbase, is getting ready to jump ship and join the Iranians. Read the following:
Felix,
Thank you for thinking of me.
Trotsky missed the boat, because he did not understand the Russian soul. Stalin did. Trotsky stayed away from Lenin’s funeral, and the Russian people looked upon this as irreverence. That was the beginning of his demise and Stalin’s rise.
I don’t know if I’m able to read anyone right now, though I have a hunch about where America stands (not Obama). We do not want to be involved in wars on the other side of the world; but we’ll be damned if some petty dictator starts talking big against us — the way the Iranians are doing. If Obama would give the order to attack Iran today, all America, Left and Right, would applaud him (except perhaps Ron Paul & supporters). I don’t know who in Iran is doing this egging on, whether it is A-jad’s faction or Khameini’s faction; but either they’ve all gone mad (which is probable), they think that Obama is too scared to respond (which is highly possible) or they’re playing a combination of Russian roulette and cat-ant-mouse. If Obama had any sense, he would bomb the daylights out of the Iranians. One big reason I can think of why he wouldn’t, is that he’s afraid of looking too pro-Israel. Maybe the Iranians are counting on this.
However that turns out, I expect a “Sarajevo effect” — Iran goes to war, and so do Syria-Assad, Hizbullah and maybe HAMAS. Israel does NOT want to be on the wrong side of this conflict. Indeed, they should take advantage of it to attack Iran. Nobody in the whole world will shed a tear for Assad.
AFTER that war, I expect a re-alignment. Turkey has been a major part of the anti-Assad coalition. If the US gets involved actively against the Iranian-Syrian axis, I expect the Turks to reflexively change sides and support the weakened Iranians. I don’t know what will become of Syria — maybe a prolonged civil war. Turkey just hates Israel so much, I can’t imagine any sort of alliance between the two, even indirect through enmity with Assad.
I think Assad is toast. If he’s smart, I think he should get out while he can. He probably won’t, though. He will probably stand with his Alawi family and go the way of Sadaam Hussein, Hosni Mubarak and Moamar Qaddafi.
These comments to me are quite astounding as indeed is this in the analysis above, which has gone by the readers of Israpundit:
Since when did Jewish people, and Israpundit is Jewish, ever base themselves on “Arab media reports”.
After all of their lies!
Bland, I agree with you very much. But there is this which I directly oppose.
You say so many correct things but you state that Israel should stay out of the Syrian issue. Correct me and apologies if I misread you on this.
But this is the same position that was taken by Pam Geller and by Robert Spencer (who are politically identical please note Laura)
The Spencer website worked on the basis in the Mubarak affair that “we do not have a dog in this fight”.
Despite Spencer and Geller warning of the danger of the Jihadists and Salafists this WAS abstentionism.
Later Spencer and Geller could say “We told you so! We told you this would happen!”
But Bland it was abstentionism on their part. They WERE responsible for the overthrow of Mubarak.
Yamit too said exactly the same on this site.
The same was in Libya except that there US troops were on the ground and that abstentionism meant that effectively Geller and Spencer were aiding the overthrow of Gadhafi.
Believe it or not this abstentionism that they applied to Gadhafi has a connection to the politics of Ron Paul.
This is why the above writing and the comments are so full of contradictions they lead Jews again into a trap (Will that never end?)
Given the present relationship of forces there must be no ambiguity and in a time of war abstentionism IS ambiguity.
Unless Bland you can take up the historical experience of Leon Trotsky, the Left Opposition and 4international then you cannot emerge out of these contradictions, and why indeed should you not. One start would be to google Trotsky/Haile Selassie.
I want to make it crystal clear. Israel must issue a statement that it unambiguously supports and defends Assad WITHOUT CONDITIONS, UNCOPNDITIONALLY.
This does not imply political agreement with Assad.
Israel must also make it clear that in the event of any attack on Israel from Assad that Isrtael will independently use ALL methods to defend itself.
If you do not do this Bland then YOU TOO will be responsible for the aftermath of the defeat of Assad by the Jihadists in league with Western Capitalism as represented by the US, EU and NATO.
Bland please do get off the fence on this. It is already crowded.
Curious,
I believe you are correct; and some here may agree with you to some degree. Others definitely will not. My own position is that Israel does not have anything to gain, getting involved in Syria. Left to himself, Assad would crush all opposition and stay in power. Because the Americans, French, Turks, Qatar, Jordan, Al Qaeda et al are meddling, he will probably be overthrown.
While everyone is fighting it out in Syria, Israel has a brief respite on that front. They can focus more on Iran, and the very serious threat coming from that quarter, should they choose to do so. Other events are unfolding in the background:
1. The Turks are every day posing more and more of a threat to Israel, such as this:
2. Iraq is breaking apart. The Sunni north is about to go to war against the Shi’a south. In all likelihood, the Iranians will back the Shiites and the Turks the Sunnis.
3. An Islamic messiah has been announced in Jordan. He is a Sunni, is descended from Mohammed’s family, he is acceptable both to Iranian Shiites and Arab Sunnis, and he is the son of King Abdullah. The time of his ascension has been announced as 2024.
4. There is the thing with Iran: If it is mishandled, there could be worldwide repercussions. In my opinion, the best results will come if Israel attacks on its own, and severely cripples Iran’s defense infrastructure. It is a shame that the US would come out of it looking badly; but that is the fault of the US and nobody else. They should be concerned for Israel and helping her; but they are not.
5. Turkey will “switch*” sides on a dime — just as they deserted their American allies at the last minute during Desert Storm. We have a missile defense battery there, a US air base and dozens of tactical nuclear weapons; the country is undergoing revolutionary political change and its leader, Erdogan, may have terminal cancer. They’re a very dangerous player.
* Nobody actually seems to know what side he’s really on
Assad? Yes, what you say is true; but I think he’s best left alone.
The Assads are pigs.
But if they fall, the Salafist Sunni extremists who take over will be worse. The only saving grace may be the utter lack of organization among Salafists. But they certainly do not lack for determination.
Assad is not merely an Alawite icon. He has Druze, Shia, and Christians behind him.
Why?
Because the country is 75% Sunni. The Shia, Druze, Alawi, and Christians do not want to be under Sunni rule, which tends to the most radical of Sharia law.
Syria’s Christians Side with Assad Out of Fear
Syria, right now, is very secular for an Arab country.
You have to remember that the father, Hafez Assad, destroyed the Muslim Brotherhood with a minor genocidal destruction of Hama around 1982.
Sadly, nothing less controls the Muslim Brotherhood. Even that was not enough. They are now in control of Homs and Hama, again.
The Ba’athists run secular countries. This is an insult to Islam, and the Sunni hate the Ba’athists for this. As bad as he is, the alternative is much worse.
Yes, Ba’athism is very dictatorial; but chiefly because NOTHING ELSE WILL CONTROL THE EXTREMISM, WHETHER SUNNI OR SHIA.
Egypt is now a stunning example of the fallacy of giving democracy to people who are not prepared for it.
It should be communicated to Assad that the West will support him if he
1) Breaks off all support for Hezbollah
2) Stops his alliance with Iran – which was chiefly a counterweight to Sunni extremism
3) Makes peace with Israel
I know the Assads are pigs, but the extremist Salafists who will come after their fall will be much worse. These are Sunni Al-Qaeda types.
A corrupt secular Ba’athist regime may be less dangerous to Israel than true believing Sunni radicals.
Bashir Assad is sectarian, as is his friend Russia and as is the Turkish opposition. (Closet) Islamic Obama, on the other hand, is allied with the Islamist Turkish leadership, along with the Islamist anti-Assad forces, including a contingent of Islamic ex-Al Qaeda forces from Iraq and Libya who are sponsored by Islamic Qatar, along with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt… Do you get the picture? Every move in the Middle East this past year has been to establish a RELIGIOUS, ANTI-SECULAR Middle East.
Don’t be bothered by any Sunni-Shi’a rivalry. I can cover that in another post. The leaders being rooted out are either secular, like Sadaam Hussein, Hosni Mubarak and Bashir Assad, or “not sufficiently Islamic”, like Qaddafi. Oh, silly me, I didn’t mention Jordan’s King Abdullah, that Western-looking playboy king who has a peace treaty with Israel. He’s on the side of the US, the Saudis, the Qataris and the opposition to Assad. Oh, and by the way, a sermon from a cleric in his country, Yassin Al-‘Ajlouni:
The Caliph to come that he is referring to is, by the way, none other than the son of Jordan’s King Abdullah.